5/20/2010

Analysis of Climatic Risk and Coping

Strategies in Two Major Corn Growing
Areas in the Philippines

F.P. Lansigan1, A.R. Salvacion2, J.O. Coladilla2

1 Institute of Statistics
2 School of Environmental Science and Management
University of the Philippines Los Baños
College 4031, Laguna

Project Rationale
• Climate is one of the most
important factors in field crop
production and management.
• Different crop physiological
processes are highly related
influenced by climate.
• Build-up, spread, and the
biological cycles of different crop
pests and diseases were also
climate-related.

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Project Rationale
• Climate variability (El Niño and La Niña) and
climatic extremes (e.g. typhoon, flooding,
drought, etc.) are the major sources of risk in
crop production resulting to variable yields and
possible yield losses.
• Analysis and quantification of possible risks and
yield losses will enable formulation of different
coping and adaptation strategies to minimize risk
and yield losses if cannot these be totally
avoided.

El Niño Occurrence in the Philippines

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Objectives
1. To asses the risk due to climatic variability in corn
production systems in two representative corn-
growing areas (Isabela and Bukidnon) in the
Philippines.
2. To identify and analyze potential strategies in corn
production systems to adapt to, cope up with,
and/or mitigate the adverse effects and impacts of
climatic variability.
3. To explore the use of advanced seasonal climate
information in crop forecasting

Province of Isabela
• Isabela is No. 1 in
terms of production
and area planted to
corn.

• Isabela devoted
255,870 hectares of
land producing a total
volume of 0.9 million
metric tons
of corn (BAS, 2007).

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Province of Bukidnon
• No. 2 and No. 3 in
terms of production
and area harvested to
corn.

• In 2007, the province

devoted 185,089
hectares of land to
corn production
resulting to a 0.7
million metric tons of
total volume of
production.

Methodology (1)
• Project used an eco-physiological corn simulation
model to quantify and analyze the effect of
climatic variability and extremes on corn
productivity in two major corn growing areas,
and to evaluate potential strategies and coping
mechanism to climate variation.
• CERES-Maize Model (in DSSAT, 2004)
parameterized for IPB 911 corn variety.
Input Data: Crop genetic coefficients; Daily
weather sequences; Crop management
information (e.g. planting date).

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Methodology (2)
• Used climate change scenarios to simulate corn
performance under the anticipated seasonal
climate change conditions.

• Use SIMMETEO – a weather generator to

produce sequences of daily weather data.
Inputs: Monthly summaries of weather
variables
Outputs: Sequences of daily weather values

Research Activities
• Acquisition of historical weather data from several sources.
• Consistency checks and analysis of historical weather data
series (i.e. treatment of missing values, outliers, extreme
values, etc.).
• Generation of synthetic weather data to have at least 50 years
of weather sequences (using SIMMETEO).
• Calibration of the CERES-Maize model for IPB 911 variety
using available genetic coefficients.
• Simulation of corn yields for specified planting dates in the
two areas.
• Corn yield probability analyses based on simulated corn
yields.

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Research Activities
• Explore modification of crop management (via
changing planting date, planting density or
distance of planting) as adaptation measures
to cope with climate variability comparing
yield probabilities

Research Activities
• Weather data generation technique (using
SIMMETEO) given climate change scenarios,
and used to forecast corn yields (using CERES-
Maize model) to simulate expected yields for
the anticipated seasonal climate change
conditions.

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Research Outputs

Data Acquisition and Analysis

Province of Isabela

Monthly rainfall (mm) and temperature (°C) trends

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Climate Variability: Isabela

Weather Variables (CV%)
Month Maximum Minimum
Rainfall Solar radiation
Temperature Temperature
Jan 72.0 2.0 3.8 17.6
Feb 84.7 4.9 4.0 11.2
Mar 95.4 4.4 3.6 13.7
Apr 66.3 4.1 3.3 12.8
May 36.3 1.8 2.9 13.4
Jun 61.9 2.8 3.6 13.7
Jul 40.0 2.8 3.3 20.8
Aug 50.7 1.7 3.1 12.4
Sep 23.2 2.1 2.3 15.2
Oct 44.3 4.2 3.2 24.3
Nov 31.3 2.1 4.5 24.1
Dec 72.4 4.7 3.6 25.3

Province of Bukidnon

Monthly rainfall (mm) and temperature (°C) trends

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Climate Variability: Bukidnon

Weather Variables (CV%)
Month Maximum Minimum
Rainfall Solar radiation
Temperature Temperature
Jan 19.4 0.7 1.1 4.0
Feb 21.3 1.0 1.3 4.6
Mar 24.6 1.0 1.2 4.5
Apr 35.9 1.0 1.1 3.0
May 9.6 0.9 0.6 3.5
Jun 9.8 0.6 0.5 2.5
Jul 10.3 0.9 0.6 5.5
Aug 7.2 0.9 0.8 7.3
Sep 14.3 0.6 0.5 4.8
Oct 10.2 0.8 0.8 6.9
Nov 12.5 0.9 0.7 9.0
Dec 17.5 0.5 1.5 3.2

Project Webpage

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CERES-Maize Model
• Crop genetic coefficients of IPB 911
• Sequences of historical and synthetic weather
data
• Planting dates during
- Normal/ Average year
- Dry year
- Wet year

Mean Yield for Wet Season Cropping in Isabela

under Different Planting Dates

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Yield Variance for Wet Season Cropping in Isabela

under Different Planting Dates

Mean Yield for Dry Season Cropping in Isabela

under Different Planting Dates

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Yield Variance for Dry Season Cropping in Isabela

under Different Planting Dates

Mean Yield for Wet Season Cropping in Bukidnon

under Different Planting Dates

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Yield Variance for Dry Season Cropping in Bukidnon

under Different Planting Dates

Coping Strategies in
Managing Climatic Risk

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Adjusting Planting Calendar

Planting Dates during Dry Years in Isabela

1.00
Week 23 (1st week of June)
Week 25 (3rd week of June)
Week 27 (1st week of July)
0.75
Week 28 (2nd week of July)
Probability

0.50

0.25

0.00
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Yield (kg/ha)

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Planting early during expected dry year is still okay.

Adjusting Planting Density

Probability of yield exceedance
Dry Yearsof different plant spacing

1.00
50 cm
0.75 75 cm
Probability

100 cm
0.50

0.25

0.00
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Yield (kg/ha)

Thursday, May 20, 2010

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Climate Change Risk and Corn

• Effects on Corn Productivity
Locations
Scenario ([CO2], Ilagan, Isabela Los Baños, Laguna Malaybalay, Bukidnon
↑Temp)
% Relative % Relative % Relative
CV (%) CV (%) CV (%)
Change Change Change
1 (330 ppm, 0°C) - 37.2 - 49.8 - 47.5
2 (330 ppm, 0.5°C) -2.3 35.1 -5.9 54.2 -25.3 63.1
3 (330 ppm, 1.0°C) -4.6 32.5 -13.9 59.7 -31.9 69.2
4 (330 ppm, 1.5°C) -4.0 33.1 -21.6 66.8 -33.1 69.3
5 (330 ppm, 2.0°C) -15.1 27.9 -31.2 74.5 -32.0 71.1
6 (660 ppm, 0°C) 12.8 35.7 28.4 24.0 26.9 17.0
7 (660 ppm, 0.5°C) 8.5 31.8 25.9 25.0 21.0 18.9
8 (660 ppm, 1.0°C) 0.1 33.5 22.3 25.9 9.8 12.8
9 (660 ppm, 1.5°C) -4.4 31.9 18.7 28.5 14.2 19.3
10 (660 ppm, 2.0°C) -4.8 28.8 14.6 29.5 13.4 15.4
* % relative change in mean yield is computed in reference to Scenario 1 or the current atmospheric condition

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Change in Yields

↑Temp
Scenario [CO2 ]
(°C)
1 330 0
2 330 0.5
3 330 1.0
4 330 1.5
5 330 2.0
6 660 0
7 660 0.5
8 660 1.0
9 660 1.5
10 660 2.0

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Conclusions
• Climate variability significantly affects crop
yields.

• Yield performance under different climate

conditions can be assessed in terms of
mean and variability of yields, or crop yield
probabilities.

• Knowledge of yield probabilities at different

planting dates under different climate
conditions can be used to develop
strategies to manage climate risks.

Conclusions
• Temperature increase reduces corn
yields; yield variability tends to
increase with warming.

• Increases in temperature and CO2

increases yields but this condition is
most unlikely to occur as GHG
emissions are being controlled.

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Recommendations
• Sharing of research data including
weather data should be addressed.

• Systems studies of climate variability

and crop productivity can be used in
many practical applications e.g.
dynamic cropping calendar, weather
index-based insurance, etc.

Dissemination of Research Results

Keynote paper (by FP Lansigan) presented at the
Federation of Crop Science Societies of the
Philippines (FCSSP) Conference, May 18-23,
2009, Dumaguete City.

Contributed paper (by AR Salvacion & FP

Lansigan) presented at the FCSSP Conference,
May 18-23, 2009, Dumaguete City.

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Problems Encountered &

Action Taken
1. Access to weather data from the
institutional source.
Action: Explored from informal sources.
2. Lack of manpower support for admin
matters.
Action: Explored from INSTAT to SESAM.
3. Transfer of research staff (ARS) to other
UPLB unit.

Thank you for your attention.

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