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Hong Kong / China Chart Book Monthly

China Toll Roads

DBS Group Research . Equity 4 March 2010

More vehicles hitting the road HSI: 20,877

Double digit growth y-o-y. China’s highway passenger Analyst


traffic jumped 20% and 14% y-o-y in 2009, respectively Paul Yong CFA +86 21 6888 3372
paulyong@dbsvickers.com
for passenger traffic and cargo traffic. Jan 2010 traffic
grew 22% and 27% y-o-y for passenger and cargo Patrick Xu +65 6398 7957
transport respectively as well. patrickxu@dbsvickers.com
More wheels hitting the road. Number of motor vehicles
in China surged 23% y-o-y to c. 63 mn as of end 2009,
driven by 46% jump in auto sales for full year 2009, which
will underpin growth of toll revenue going forward.
Cargo traffic reviving. Foreign trade continued its y-o-y
growth since Nov 2009 into Jan 2010, which bodes well
for toll revenue for those roads with more exposure to
cargo traffic, ie Hopewell Highway Infrastructure (737 HK)
and Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) in the Pearl River Delta
and Jiangsu Expressway (177 HK) and Zhejiang Expressway
(576 HK) in the Yangtze River Delta. Furthermore, we’ve
observed up trend of average toll rates of those roads, as
cargo traffic account for higher weights in traffic mix.

Chart of the month – China’s monthly passenger and cargo traffic on highways

mn Persons mn Ton
2,600 2,000

2,500 1,900
2,400 1,800
2,300
1,700
2,200
1,600
2,100
1,500
2,000
1,400
1,900
1,800 1,300

1,700 1,200

1,600 1,100
Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct, Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct, Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct, Jan,
2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010

Passenger Carried Cargo Carried

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors,
Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.

www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Sa - DC
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Peer Comparison Valuation


Mkt Cap Last Rating TP ----PER---- FY08-10 EPS P/B Prospective
Stock code Name (US$m) Px FY08 FY09 FY10 CAGR FY09F ROE Yield
995 HK Anhui 1,692 5.29 Buy 5.51 12.6 10.9 10.7 8.7% 1.4 13.3% 5.2%
737 HK HHI 1,976 5.18 Hold 5.22 15.0 14.5 15.0 0.2% 1.6 10.6% 6.5%
177 HK Jiangsu 5,546 7.32 Buy 8.07 20.3 16.3 17.1 8.9% 2.1 13.3% 5.3%
548 HK Shenzhen 1,765 4.11 Buy 4.82 15.6 12.6 9.9 25.9% 1.1 8.6% 4.0%
576 HK Zhejiang 3,911 6.99 Hold 7.54 14.1 13.8 13.1 3.7% 1.9 13.8% 4.3%
107 HK Sichuan 3,732 4.53 Buy 4.61 18.7 13.4 11.0 30.0% 1.6 12.6% 6.2%
Avg 16.0 13.6 12.8 5.3%
Source: Bloomberg, DBS Vickers

Page 2
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Anhui Expressway
Hening Expressway (Hefei - Nanjing)
Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

600 65,000
60,000
500 55,000
50,000
400
45,000
300 40,000
35,000
200 30,000
Mar

Apr

Oct

Mar
Apr

Oct
Jul

Jul
Dec

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep

Jan
Feb

Jun

Aug
Sep
May

Nov

May

Nov
2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009

• YTD Vol: +11.5%

• YTD Rev: +13.3%

• Artery linking Hefei (capital of Anhui Province) and Nanjing (capital of Jiangsu Province)

• Widening from 4 lanes to 8 lanes completed in 3Q09

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

National Trunk 205 Tianchang Section (Nanjing – Huai’an)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

300 7,000
6,000
250 5,000
4,000
200
3,000
150 2,000
1,000
100 0
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan
Feb

Jun

Aug
Sep
May

Nov

2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009

• YTD Vol: -4.1%

• YTD Rev: +2.1%

• Diversion caused by the parallel Ninghuai Expressway Tianchang Section that is also part of the Group since Dec 2006

• Raised its toll-by-weight rates twice in Mar and Jul 2009


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 3
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Xuanguang Expressway (Xuancheng - Guangde)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

500 37,000
450
400 32,000
350
27,000
300
250 22,000
200
150 17,000

Mar
Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan
Feb

Jun

Aug
Sep
May

Nov
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009

• YTD Vol: +16.5%

• YTD Rev: +12.5%

• Natural traffic growth

• Higher passenger vehicles in the traffic mix


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Gaojie Expressway (Gaohe - Jiezidun)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

400 45,000
350 40,000
35,000
300
30,000
250 25,000

200 20,000
Mar
Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan
Feb

Jun

Aug
Sep
May

Nov
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009

• YTD Vol: +0.2%

• YTD Rev: -2.0%

• Resurfacing completed in Jun 2009


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 4
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Lianhuo Expressway Anhui Section (Lianyungang – Huo’erguosi)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

310 25,000
290
270 20,000
250
230 15,000
210
190 10,000
170
150 5,000
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan
Feb

Jun

Aug
Sep
May

Nov

Mar
Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan
Feb

Jun

Aug
Sep
May

Nov
2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009

• YTD Vol: -5.7%

• YTD Rev: -13.2%

• Leading to an important port in Jiangsu Province

• Hence, exposed to export activities


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Ninghuai Expressway Tianchang Section (Nanjing - Lianyungang)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

550 6,000
500
450 5,000
400 4,000
350
300 3,000
250 2,000
200
150 1,000
Mar
Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan
Feb

Jun

Aug
Sep
May

Nov
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009

• YTD Vol: +23.1%

• YTD Rev: +31.8%

• Consistently diverting traffic from National Trunk 205 Tianchang Section

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 5
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Hopewell Highway Infrastructure


GS Superhighway (Guangzhou - Shenzhen)
Traffic Volumes (‘000 entrances) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

12,000 340,000
320,000
11,000
300,000
10,000 280,000
9,000 260,000
240,000
8,000
220,000
7,000 200,000

Oct

Mar
Apr
Jul

Dec
Oct

Apr

Aug
Sep

Jan
Feb

Jun
Mar
Jul

Nov

May
Dec
Aug
Sep

Jan
Feb

Jun
Nov

May

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY08 FY09 FY10

• FYTD Vol: +9.5% y-o-y

• FYTD Rev: +4.1% y-o-y

• Lower average toll rate per entrance, due to less cargo transport in the traffic mix.

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

West Route Phase I (Guangzhou – Foshan)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 entrances) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

1,200 17,000
1,100 15,000
1,000
13,000
900
800 11,000
700 9,000
600 7,000
Oct

Mar
Apr
Jul

Dec
Aug
Sep

Jan

Feb

Jun
Nov

May

Oct

Mar
Apr
Jul

Dec
Aug
Sep

Jan
Feb

Jun
Nov

May

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY08 FY09 FY10

• FYTD Vol: +12.0%

• FYTD Rev: +10.4%

• Driven by the urbanization of Guangzhou and Foshan


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 6
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Jiangsu Expressway
Huning Expressway (Shanghai – Nanjing) Guangjing Expressway (Guangling – Jingcheng)
Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips)

2,000 1,400
1,300
1,800
1,200
1,600 1,100
1,000
1,400 900
1,200 800
700
1,000 600
Mar
Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan
Feb

Jun

Aug
Sep
May

Nov

Mar
Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan
Feb

Jun

Aug
Sep
May

Nov
2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: -17.2%

• YTD Vol: +3.1% • Connecting Xicheng Expressway

• Toll-by-weight rates raised since 1 Jul 2009 • Diversion caused by Sutong Bridge from May08

• Toll-by-weight rates raised since 1 Jul 2009


Source: Company, DBS Vickers Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Xicheng Expressway (Wuxi - Chengjiang) Huning Section of National Trunk 312 (Shanghai - Nanjing)
Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Traffic Volumes (‘000 entrances)

1,400 1,250
1,300 1,150
1,050
1,200
950
1,100 850
1,000 750
650
900
550
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

800
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: 5.6%


• YTD Vol: -3.4%
• Volume decreasing every year due to inferior surface
• Diversion caused by Sutong Bridge from May08 conditions as compared to the parallel Huning
Expressway
• Toll-by-weight rates raised since 1 Jul 2009
• Toll-by-weight rates raised since 1 Jul 2009
Source: Company, DBS Vickers Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 7
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Nanjing Section of Ninglian Highway (Nanjing - Lianyungang)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 entrances)

250
230
210
190
170
150
130
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: +7.6%

• Consistent diversion caused by the parallel Ninglian


Expressway

• Toll-by-weight rates raised since 1 Jul 2009


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 8
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Shenzhen Expressway
Meiguan Expressway (Meilin - Guanlan)
Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

2,000 30,000
1,900 28,000
1,800
26,000
1,700
1,600 24,000
1,500 22,000
1,400 20,000
1,300
1,200 18,000
1,100 16,000
Mar

Apr

Oct

Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Jul
Dec

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep

Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

May

Nov
2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: +33.1%

• YTD Rev: +32.8%

• Driven by continued recovery of foreign trade activities


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Jihe West Expressway (Shenzhen Bao’an Int’l Airport – Heze)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

1,800 36,000
1,700 34,000
1,600 32,000
1,500 30,000
1,400 28,000
1,300 26,000
1,200 24,000
1,100 22,000
1,000 20,000
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: +35.6%

• YTD Rev: +32.3%

• Driven by continued recovery of foreign trade activities


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 9
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Jihe East Expressway (Shenzhen Bao’an Int’l Airport - Heze)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

1,950 45,000
1,850
1,750 40,000
1,650
35,000
1,550
1,450 30,000
1,350
1,250 25,000
Ju l
M ar

Apr

O ct

D ec
Jan

F eb

Ju n

Aug

S ep
M ay

Nov

Ju l
M ar

Apr

O ct

D ec
Jan

F eb

Ju n

Aug

S ep
M ay

Nov
2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: +15.6%

• YTD Rev: +21.6%

• Driven by continued recovery of foreign trade activities


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Yanba Expressway (Yantian - Bagang)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

600 9,000
550 8,000
500
450 7,000
400 6,000
350 5,000
300
250 4,000
200 3,000
Mar

Apr

Oct

Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Jul
Dec

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep

Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

May

Nov

2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: +22.6%

• YTD Rev: +27.4%

• Opening of a connecting road in Jul08 boosted traffic

• Driven by continued recovery of foreign trade activities


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 10
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Nanguang Expressway (Nanshan – Guangming New Zone)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

700 14,000

600 12,000
500 10,000
400 8,000
300 6,000
200 4,000
100 2,000
0 0
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov
2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: +131.0%

• YTD Rev: +137.0%

• Monthly toll revenue keeps hitting new heights since its opening in Feb08
Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Qinglian Expressway (Qingyuan - Lianzhou)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

610 36,000
560
510 31,000
460
410 26,000
360
21,000
310
260 16,000
210
160 11,000
Mar

Apr

O ct
Jul

Dec
Jan

F eb

Jun

Aug

S ep
May

Nov

Mar

Apr

O ct
Ju l

D ec
Jan

F eb

Aug

S ep
May

Ju n

Nov

2009 2010 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: n.a.

• YTD Rev: n.a.

• Numbers before Jan09 were not disclosed

• Toll rate scheme upgraded to the expressway level since Jul09 from Class I level, resulting in lower traffic but higher toll
revenue

• Started toll-by-weight since Nov09


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 11
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Sichuan Expressway
Chengyu Expressway (Chengdu - Chongqing)
Traffic Volumes (‘000 entrances) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

800 100,000
95,000
750
90,000
700 85,000
650 80,000
600 75,000
550 70,000
65,000
500
60,000
450 55,000
400 50,000
M ar

Ap r

O ct

M ar

Apr

O ct
Ju l
Jul

Dec
Jan

F eb

Jun

Aug

S ep

D ec
M ay

No v

M ay

Nov
Jan

F eb

Ju n

Aug

S ep
2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: -14.4%

• YTD Rev: +20.5%

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Chengya Expressway (Chengdu – Ya’an)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 entrances) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

600 55,000
550 50,000
500 45,000
450 40,000
400 35,000
350 30,000
300 25,000
250 20,000
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep

Dec
Jul
May

Nov

Mar

Apr

O ct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: +14.6%

• YTD Rev: +38.4%

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 12
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Chengbei Expressway (North exit expressway of Chengdu)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 entrances) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

1,100 10,000

1,000 9,000
8,000
900
7,000
800
6,000
700 5,000
600 4,000

M ar

Apr

O ct
Ju l

D ec
Jan

F eb

M ay

Ju n

Aug

S ep

Nov
Jul

D ec
Jan

Feb

Jun

A ug

Sep
May

N ov
Mar

A pr

Oct

2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: +24.7%

• YTD Rev: +9.3%

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Chengle Expressway (Chengdu - Leshan)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 entrances) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

750 40,000
700
35,000
650
600 30,000
550
25,000
500
450 20,000
400
15,000
350
300 10,000
Mar

Apr

Oct

Dec
May

Nov
Jan

Feb

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep

Dec
Jul
May

Nov

2008 2009 2010


2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: +28.7%

• YTD Rev: +28.2%

• Mainly attributable to natural growth


Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 13
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Zhejiang Expressway
Shanghai-Hangzhou Section
Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

1,400 120,000
1,300 110,000
1,200 100,000
1,100 90,000
1,000 80,000
900 70,000
800 60,000
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
Jan

May

Nov

Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov
2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: +17.5%

• YTD Rev: +24.3%

• Diversions stabilised
Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Hangzhou-Ningbo Section
Traffic Volumes (‘000 full trips) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

1,400 170,000
1,300 160,000
150,000
1,200
140,000
1,100 130,000
1,000 120,000
110,000
900
100,000
800 90,000
Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: +10.6%

• YTD Rev: +21.7%

• Diversions stabilised
Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 14
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

Shangsan Expressway (Shangyu - Sanmen)


Traffic Volumes (‘000 entrances) Toll Revenue (RMB ‘000)

750 80,000

700 75,000
70,000
650
65,000
600
60,000
550 55,000
500 50,000

Mar

Apr

Oct
Jul

Dec
Mar

Apr

Oct

Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov
Jul

Dec
Jan

Feb

Jun

Aug

Sep
May

Nov

2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

• YTD Vol: -9.0%

• YTD Rev: -0.3%

• 2010 traffic volume will be adversely impacted by the parallel Zhuyong Expressway which partially opened in Jan 2010.
Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 15
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

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STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
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Page 16
Chart Book Monthly
China Toll Roads

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