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The Breweries Industry
€
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
The Nigeria Breweries Industry‐ A lion in the desert
The case for investing in the breweries industry in Nigeria is as compelling as that of investing in the country. Nigeria is
the most populous country in Africa and it is home to over 150 million people with an annual population growth rate of
2%‐3%. The demography of the country favours the breweries industry as available data show that the target audience
for alcoholic beverages is in the age group of 18 to 64 years and the country has over 70 million people within this age
bracket. This accounts for over 46% of the country’s population. This figure is expected to increase to over 85 million by
2012. There is probably no other sector that presents such compelling growth potential like the breweries industry,
with per capita consumption in Nigeria below 10 liters per population which is far below what is obtainable in other
African countries.
With a vibrant population of over 150mn people, a growing middle class society and a strong demography has all but
ensured that the breweries industry in Nigeria would continue to enjoy enormous growth and patronage.
The industry has maintained its status as a pioneer in the manufacturing industry in Nigeria led by Nigeria Breweries
Ltd and Guinness Nigeria Plc; the two heavy weight companies that drive the country’s beer market. The other fringe
players in the breweries industry are: Associated Breweries, Champion Breweries, Consolidated Breweries, Sona
Breweries etc, while these fringe players are not national players but they have firm control in their local areas.
Beer production in the country grew by an average of 15% between 2005 and 2010. The industry is further expected to
grow at an average rate of 10% in terms of its turnover for the next four years. Nigeria Breweries Plc
owned by the
famous Dutch brewer Heineken controls a market share of over 50% in an industry that generates over N350 billion in
annual turnover.
Company Turnover (N)
Nigeria Breweries 164.2
Guinness Nigeria Plc 89.14
Competition within the sector is expected to get tougher, with the arrival of SAB Miller. SABmiller has had a successful
stinct in East Africa where they championed the production of low cost beer made from locally sourced raw materials
like cassava. SABMiller entered into the Nigerian brewery industry by the acquisition of Pabod Breweries (based in the
Delta Region of the country) and Standard Breweries. The company has made commitments to expand its plant output
to 250,000 hectoliters by 2010, a move that would generate stiffer competition within the industry. We note that with
such situation, imminent players in this sector will have to be innovative to survive the competition ahead. This
however does not negate the prospect for growth within the sector.
We are of the firm opinion that the breweries industry in Nigeria still holds remarkable growth potential supported by
strong demographic data, impressive macroeconomic forecast and a low per capita consumption of 10 liters per
population.
Nigerian Breweries Plc
€
Investment Case: Cautious Optimism
Target Price: NGN72.61
We initiate coverage on Nigerian Breweries with a "HOLD" Recommendation: HOLD
recommendation on a 12 month investment horizon. We
Fair Value: NGN53.20
believe that
the credit squeeze that began in 2008, and Market Capitalization: NGN544mn
was full blown in 2009 has continued into 2010. We reckon Shares Outstanding: 7,563mn
that as a result of the cash squeeze, it’s getting increasingly Bloomberg Quote: NB NL
difficult for new distributors to have access to bank credit, Reuters Quote: NB
Year‐end: Dec. 31
while the old distributors still face a challenge in renewing
Source: NSE data, GTB AM Research
their facilities.
The security situation and incessant
kidnapping in the Eastern part of the country has ensured
that social events are reduced to the minimum. As a result, Price Statistics
we do not expect a significant rise in the company's 52wk High: NGN76.00
turnover. We estimate Nigerian Breweries turnover to 52wk Low: NGN50.00
grow by 9% year on year, and project a PAT of N31.3 billion
Year High: NGN76.00
Year Low: NGN53.00
for yearend 2010, an 11% marginal increase from last
Year‐to‐Date Return Ψ: 29.39%
year's figure. This is regardless of the Q2 2010 PAT of N15 Source: NSE data, GTB AM Research. Ψ Return as at time of report
billion which showed a 6% drop from previous year.
Company Description: The Beer Leader Balance Sheet (N’bn)
Nigerian Breweries is the first and the largest brewing 2009 2008 % Chg
Total Assets: 106.99 104.40 2.40
company in Nigeria. The company began operation in 1946,
Total Liabilities: 60.42 72.18 ‐0.16
and bottled its first STAR Lager beer in 1949. Currently the Net‐worth: 46.57 32.22 44.50
company has five operational sites in Nigeria i.e. Lagos, Source: NSE data, GTB AM Research
Aba, Kaduna, Ibadan and Ama in Enugu.
The company has a strong brand portfolio of alcoholic and Profit and Loss Statement (N’bn)
non alcoholic drinks that ranges from its flagship Star Lager
2009 2008 % Chg
beer to other products like Gulder Lager Beer, Heineken, Turnover: 164.61 104.40 2.40
Maltina, Amstel Malta, Legend and Fayrouz. PBT: 41.40 37.52 10.34
PAT: 27.91 25.70 8.60
Nigerian Breweries has enjoyed a stable and focused Source: NSE data, GTB AM Research
Operational Climate: Challenging but doable
Nigeria Breweries has continued to retain its position as a market
leader in the breweries industry in Nigeria. The Company has
completed the construction of a new Lagos brew house which is
part of the company's expansion drive. The Lagos brew house now
Nigerian Breweries recorded revenues of
produces 2.5 hectoliters (approximately 35 million carton units) of
N164 billion in year‐end 2009 and N88
Nigerian Breweries brands. The other brew locations went through
billion in H1 2010 (a marginal increase of
various stages of maintenance, ranging from brewing, packaging,
7% from previous year).
to logistics all aimed at boosting the installed capacity.
The company recently migrated to a more robust software
application to aid its operations, they moved from ISHA business
software to the more efficient SAP software. This migration will
lead to more efficient organization and reporting of the supply
chain process.
Nigeria Breweries closed 2009 with an operating profit of N41
billion. We forecast a 9.6% increase in its operating profit, hence
we expect that the company will close yearend 2010 with N45.6
billion as operating profit.
As already identified, the first half of the year kicked off at a slow
pace, the company’s Q2 2010 result showed a decline in its PAT by
6% to N15.8 billion. We however maintain that the company still
stands a good chance of closing the year with a 11% growth in PAT.
The company closed year end 2009 with
an operating profit of N41 billion. We Financials: PAT settles at N27. 9 billion as Turnover
forecast a 9.6% increase in its operating grows by 12%
profit; hence we expect that the
company Nigeria Breweries recorded revenues of N164 billion in yearend
will close 2010 with N45
billion as operating profit. 2009 and N88 billion in H1 2010 (a marginal increase of 7% from
previous year). The company’s PBT was up by 10.3% to N41.3
billion in 2009 and the operating profit was N41.6 billion in 2009.
We forecast that by yearend 2010 the company will close with a
PAT of N31.3 billion; an 11.5% increase from previous year figures,
this is commendable considering the operating climate in the
industry. We anticipate that the company’s PBT will grow by
10.5% to settle at N45.78 billion and improvement from the N41.3
billion figure posted in FY 09.
GTB Asset Management Company Research Nigerian Breweries 22nd Sept, 2010
(NGN’000) 2008 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e
Turnover 145,461,762 164,206,848 178,985,464 196,884,011 220,510,092 242,561,101
Cost of Sales (74,561,945) (88,734,440) (87,702,878) (96,473,165) (108,049,945) (118,854,940)
Gross Profit 70,899,817 75,472,408 91,282,587 100,410,845 112,460,147 123,706,162
Selling & Distr. Cost
(21,542,383) (20,795,333) (27,152,095) (29,867,304) (33,451,381) (36,796,519)
Administrative Expenses (6,440,046) (6,364,979) (8,949,273) (9,844,201) (11,025,505) (12,128,055)
Depreciation
(6,331,785) (6,794,658) (9,665,215) (10,631,737) (11,907,545) (13,098,299)
Other Income 192,257 144,896 178,985 196,884 220,510 242,561
Operation Profit
36,777,860 41,662,334 45,694,989 50,264,488 56,296,226 61,925,849
300 18
300 30
250 18 250 28
200 200
26
150 17 150
100 24
100
17
50 50 22
0 16 ‐ 20
600 Turnover
EPS (k) DPS (k)
500 261.9
240.36
400 216.54
195.08
177.34
300 164.21
145.46
111.75
200
100
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e
Free Cash Flow (N'bn) 140
NSE NB
60
50 130
40
120
30
20
110
10
0 100
2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 4‐Jan‐10 4‐Mar‐10 4‐May‐10 4‐Jul‐10
GTB Asset Management Company Research Nigerian Breweries 22nd Sept, 2010
Sensitivity Analysis:
Disc.
Factor
11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 17.0% 19.0% 21.0%
Growth
Rate
5.0% 74.5 60.5 51.6 45.4 40.7 37.0
5.5% 79.4 63.2 53.4 46.6 41.6 37.7
6.0% 85.2 66.3 55.3 48.0 42.6 38.5
Peer Analysis: Leading the Pack
Nigeria Breweries has often been termed the darling of the Nigeria
stock exchange; it is currently the most capitalized stock at the
exchange and enjoys good sentiment from investors. In
comparison to its peers, Nigeria Breweries PE is trading at a
In comparison to its peers, Nigeria discount to its one year target price. This could be as a result of the
Breweries is trading at a discount 2.3% current bearish trend in the market, shares of Guinness Nigeria Plc
on the other hand has maintained a price range of N162– 171
within the last 8 weeks. However we maintain that in a bullish
market, the upside for NB is high considering the sentiment it
enjoys in the market.
Metrics for Year End 2009
NB GUINNESS
Gross Profit Margin 45.96% 47.83%
Operating Profit Margin 25.37% 22.22%
Return on Assets 26.09% 18.33%
Return on Equity 59.93% 42.95%
Current Ratio 0.90 1.14
Dividend Payout 49% 139%
EPS N3.70 N9.20
PE 18x 18x
DPS N1.80 N12.80
Our recommendation is to be “neutral” Outlook: Prospects Seem Good
on Nigeria
Breweries in a diversified
portfolio of equities We anticipate a recovery in the economy and foresee banks
resume lending operations, this would jostle the sales of alcoholic
beverage which had hitherto slowed on account of credit squeeze
in the system; Nigeria Breweries as an industry leader is poised to
benefit from the increased sales. In addition the company has put
itself in a competitive light with the newly commissioned Lagos
brew, which now has the capacity to produce 2.5 hectoliters.
Our recommendation is to be “neutral” on Nigeria Breweries in a
diversified portfolio of equities; possible deviations from our target
price could arise if the company records outrageous sales in its Q4
earnings. We would however follow up with an update should we
All in all we expect Nigeria Breweries to spot this trend. All in all we expect Nigeria Breweries to record
revenue growth at a CAGR 10% over FY09‐FY14.
record revenue growth at a CAGR 10%
over FY09‐FY14.
At current market price of N69, NB is at a P/E of 18x. We have
valued Nigerian Breweries Plc using the DCF and Relative valuation
methodology. Using these methods we have arrived at a target
price of N72.6, indicating a potential upside of 6% from current
market price.
GTB Asset Management Company Research Nigerian Breweries 22nd Sept, 2010
2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e
Balance‐Sheet Forecasts
(N’000)
Fixed Assets 79,899,111 87,889,022 97,556,815 108,288,064 118,033,990
Investments 180,417 198,459 220,290 244,521 266,528
Long‐term Debtors & Prepayments 128,870 141,756 157,350 174,658 190,377
Stocks 25,773,907 28,351,298 31,469,940 34,931,634 38,075,481
Debtors & Prepayments 5,799,129 6,379,042 7,080,737 7,859,618 8,566,983
Foreign Currencies for Import 386,609 425,269 472,049 523,975 571,132
Cash & Bank Balance 16,753,039 18,428,343 20,455,461 22,705,562 24,749,062
Current Assets 48,712,684 53,583,952 59,478,187 66,020,788 71,962,659
Total Assets 128,869,534 141,756,488 157,349,701 174,658,169 190,377,404
Taxation 10,309,563 11,340,519 12,587,976 13,972,653 15,230,192
Dividend 6,095,529 6,705,082 7,442,641 8,261,331 9,004,851
Other Current Liabilities
29,639,993 32,603,992 36,190,431 40,171,379 43,786,803
Current Liabilities 46,045,085 50,649,593 56,221,048 62,405,364 68,021,846
Total Assets less Current Liabilities
82,824,450 91,106,895 101,128,653 112,252,805 122,355,557
Deferred Tax Liabilities
16,753,039 18,428,343 20,455,461 22,705,562 24,749,062
Provision for Gratuity 5,154,781 5,670,260 6,293,988 6,986,327 7,615,096
Net Assets 60,916,629 67,008,292 74,379,204 82,560,916 89,991,399
Shareholders’ Funds 60,916,629 67,008,292 74,379,204 82,560,916 89,991,399
Profit and Loss Forecasts (N’000)
Turnover 178,985,464 196,884,011 218,541,252 242,580,790 264,413,061
Profit Before Tax 45,784,482 50,362,930 56,406,482 62,047,130 67,631,371
Profit After Tax
31,133,448 34,246,792 38,356,407 42,192,048 45,989,333
GUINNESS NIGERIA PLC
€
Investment Case: slightly Optimistic
Target Price: NGN176.89
We initiate coverage on Guinness Nigeria Plc and place a Recommendation: HOLD
"HOLD" recommendation for a 12 months investment
Fair Value: NGN136.52
horizon. In arriving at our recommendation, we estimated
Market Capitalization: NGN244mn
the fair value of Guinness to be N136.5, and a one year Shares Outstanding: 1,474mn
target price of N176. Bloomberg Quote: GUINNESS NL
Reuters Quote: GUINNES.LG
We project that the company would record a 13% growth Year‐end: JUN. 30
in turnover year on year, a far cry from the 29% growth in Source: NSE data, GTB AM Research
turnover recorded in 2009. We project Guinness Nigeria Plc
turnover to hit over N100 billion by yearend 2010, the
Price Statistics
company is in line to record this feat considering its Q3 52wk High: NGN173.25
2010 results where it posted a turnover of N80.5 billion, we 52wk Low: NGN123.50
expect the yearend PAT to drop by 2% and settle at N13.8 Year High: NGN173.25
billion. Year Low: NGN124.51
Year‐to‐Date Return Ψ: 34.12%
At the current price, we recommend shares of Guinness Source: NSE data, GTB AM Research. Ψ Return as at time of report
Nig Plc for investors seeking both capital appreciation and
dividend payment. We expect that the company would
continue its generous dividend policy. The company had Balance Sheet (N’bn)
already declared a dividend of N8.25 for the year under 2009 2008 % Chg
Total Assets: 73.87 74.65 ‐1.04
review
Total Liabilities: 38.74 39.26 ‐1.32
Company Description: A Close Substitute Net Assets: 34.27 31.52 8.72
Source: NSE data, GTB AM Research
Since its first brewery plant was commissioned in Ikeja area
of Lagos in 1962, Guinness Nigeria Plc has entrenched itself
its has added two other breweries ( Benin City
in Nigeria,
Profit and Loss Statement (N’bn)
and Ogba) to its facilities. Its “ Guinness stout” brand has
2009 2008 % Chg
become famous and its now the benchmark for the the Turnover: 89.15 69.17 28.88
stout brand. The company's main activities continue to be
PBT: 18.99 17.09 11.11
in brewing, packaging and marketing of Guinness Foreign PAT: 13.54 11.86 14.17
(1962), Guinness Extra Smooth (2005), Malta Source: NSE data, GTB AM Research
Extra Stout
Guinness, (1990), Harp Lager Beer (1974), Gordon’s Spark
(2001) and Smirnoff Ice (2006) and Satzenbrau (2006).
2009 2010e 2011e
Guinness Nigeria, a subsidiary of the prestigious Diageo Plc EPS (NGN): 9.2 8.6 12.7
of the United Kingdom owns 46% of the Nigerian DPS (NGN): 12.8 8.2 9.5
Operations while Atalantaf Ltd owns 7.7% of the company. P/E (x): 18 x 20x 13x
Source: NSE data, GTB AM Research
The rest 46.2% is available as free float.
GTB Asset Management Company Research Guinness Nigeria Plc 22nd Sept, 2010
Operational Climate: Challenging but doable
It was a difficult year for the company as the impact of the banking
reform continued to take its toll on the company’s distributors,
disposable income also thinned out in the period under review.
The company however responded to the foreseen dip in turnover
It was a difficult year for the company as
by carrying out a trade census validation in a view to gain a better
the impact of the banking reform
understanding of the business terrain and ensure a near perfect
continued
to take its toll on the
execution of its initiatives, this might account for the 25% growth
company’s distributors.
in turnover as at Q3 2010.
We reckon that the cost for advertisement and promotional
expense would rise substantially from previous year; this is
because the company has invested in promoting its brand during
the world cup and also sponsored the “power of 9ja promo”. We
expect a ~N10 billion budget for adverts by yearend. We also
expect the operational profit to slide by 3% when compared to
yearend 2009, hence the company will close 2010 with N20.3
billion as operating profit in yearend 2010.
The quality campaign embarked by the company to promote the
market share and distribution of its Harp brand has paid off
significantly as Harp is gradually becoming popular and now a must
stock brand in leading outlets. The Malta Guinness brand is clearly
an industry leader in the malt drink segment of the Nigeria market
The decline witnessed in the bottom line of Guinness Nigeria Plc’s
P&L statement could be attributed to the spiral effect of the
We forecast that by yearend 2010 the banking sector reform. In addition, the company’s operation cost
company will close the year with a PAT inched higher, hence regardless that the company anticipates an
of N13.83 billion a decline of 2% from increase in turnover, it would not impact on the bottom line.
previous year figures.
Financials: Bottom lines struggles as turnover
inches higher
Guinness Nigeria Plc posted its Q3 March 2010 figures, which
showed a 25.4% increase in turnover. However, the decline in PAT
that started in Q1 Sept 09 and Q2 Dec. 09, continued into Q3, with
the company showing a 17% drop in PAT. We forecast that by
yearend June 2010 the company will close with a PAT of N13.83
billion, a decline of 2% from previous year figures. We anticipate
that the company’s PBT will decline by 4% to settle at N19.76
billion. We also expect that after June 2010 year end there will be
a marked improvement in the company’s earnings as credit begins
to trickle to the real sector.
GTB Asset Management Company Research Guinness Nigeria Plc 22nd Sept, 2010
(NGN’000) 2008 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e
Turnover
69,172,852 89,148,207 101,450,660 110,581,219 119,427,716 128,981,934
Cost of Sales (35,611,016) (46,509,596) (52,145,639) (56,396,422) (60,908,135) (65,780,786)
Gross Profit
33,561,836 42,638,611 49,305,021 54,184,797 58,519,581 63,201,148
Advert & Promotion (6,163,742) (7,795,558) (9,130,559) (8,735,916) (9,434,790) (10,189,573)
Distribution Expenses (5,066,087) (5,966,268) (7,101,546) (7,740,685) (8,359,940) (9,028,735)
Administration Expenses (2,163,640) (4,468,882) (8,116,053) (4,124,679) (4,454,654) (4,811,026)
Depreciation (3,125,954) (3,565,316) (4,565,280) (4,976,155) (5,374,247) (5,804,187)
Exceptional Item (1,242,838) (1,262,767)
Operation Profit 15,799,575 19,579,820 20,391,583 28,607,361 30,895,950 33,367,626
22
25
100
100
18
20
50
14
50
15
‐ 10
20.00 Turnover
15.00 137
127
118
109
10.00 100
89
69
5.00 62
0.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EPS (k) DPS (k)
2007 2008 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e
Valuation Summary: Target Price of N176 holds 3
% upside potential
We have valued the shares of Guinness Nigeria Plc and arrived at a
one year target price of N176.89, which represent a 3% upside
Our DCF model yielded a price of N136,
potential from the current price of N171.
while we
arrived at a price of N169 on
our relative valuation models. These We used both the discounted cash flow model and the relative
models average to a price of N153. valuation model to derive the estimated fair value price of
Guinness Nigeria Plc. Our DCF model yielded a price of N136, while
we arrived at a price of N169 on our relative valuation models.
These models average to a price of N153; applying our discount
factor of 15%, we arrived at a 12 month target price of N176.
For our DCF valuation model we have assumed a discount factor of
15.5% and a terminal growth rate of 6%. We have also carried out
a sensitivity analysis to our DCF based model varying the terminal
growth rate as well as the cost of equity.
At a current price of N171, the company trades on a trailing PE of
18x and a forward PE of 20x. We expect a forward dividend yield of
6% for FY11 a slight departure from the 5% yield of FY10
We do not expect the company to
We have considered the current credit squeeze in the system and
sustain the 750k dividend they paid last
have factored its effect into our valuation models; as a result our
year, due
to the drop in the company’s revenue forecast for the company was slightly dampened. We
EPS from N9.2 recorded last year to
anticipate a 13% increase in turnover year on year, our model
N8.6 anticipated this yearend.
shows that the company would close the year with a turnover
figure over N100 billion.
Sensitivity Analysis:
Disc.
Factor
11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 17.0% 19.0% 21.0%
Growth
Rate
5.0% 192.59 155.60 132.28 115.92 103.64 93.98
5.5%
205.43 162.78 136.90 119.16 106.05 95.84
6.0%
220.83 170.99 142.03 122.69 108.63 97.82
6.5%
239.65 180.47 147.76 126.55 111.43 99.95
7.0%
263.18 191.52 154.22 130.80 114.45 102.22
GTB Asset Management Company Research Guinness Nigeria Plc 22nd Sept, 2010
Peer Analysis: A Close Substitute
Guinness Nigeria and Nigeria Breweries are clearly the industry
leaders in the breweries industry in Nigeria. The industry is led by
Heineken owned Nigeria Breweries that controls an estimated
market share of 65%, while Diageo’s Guinness Nigeria follows suit
Diageo’s Guinness Nigeria controls a with a market share of about 25%. The other fringe players in the
market share of about 25% industry are: International Brewery, Premier Brewery, Jos Brewery
etc. The large size of our population has made the breweries
industry in Nigeria an attractive destination for multinational
breweries. Nigeria is increasingly becoming important to Diageo, as
the country has overtaken Ireland to become Guinness’s second
largest market after the UK
Metrics for Year End 2009
NB GUINNESS
Gross Profit Margin 45.96% 47.83%
Operating Profit Margin 25.37% 22.22%
Return on Assets 26.09% 18.33%
Return on Equity 59.93% 42.95%
Current Ratio 0.90 1.14
Dividend Payout 49% 139%
EPS N3.70 N9.20
DPS N1.80 N12.80
Our recommendation is to be “neutral”
Outlook: Better days are ahead
on Guinness Nigeria in a diversified
portfolio of equities. We remain bullish on the breweries industry in Nigeria, and reckon
that Guinness is positioned to wrestle market share from Nigeria
Breweries, Its Harp brand that is gradually becoming popular is
poised to enjoy more patronage and increased sales. We anticipate
that Guinness’s Harp will stay on the tail of NB’s Star.
Our recommendation is to be “neutral” on Guinness Nigeria in a
We expect the company to maintain its diversified portfolio of equities. At current market price of N171,
Guinness trades at a P/E of 18x. We have valued the company
generous dividend payout ratio.
using the DCF and Relative valuation methodology. Using these
methods we have arrived at a target price of N176.0, indicating a
potential upside of 3% from current market price.
We expect the company to maintain its generous dividend payout
ratio.
GTB Asset Management Company Research Guinness Nigeria Plc 22nd Sept, 2010
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