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Assignment NO. 2

Business Mathematics and Statistical (MBA-5528)

Submitted by: Faizullah khan

Roll no. AH-522997 cell (0346-9175441)

Department of Business Administration Page.2

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Beneficent and the most Merciful, who enabled me to

complete this assignment.

teacher, for his guidance and support for providing me an

opportunity to complete a productive research study of my

topic

My special thanks and acknowledgments to Mr.Sarfaraz for

providing me all relative information, guidance and support

to compile the practical study of Engro food (pvt)

submit this report to my honorable teacher Sir Aftab

Ahmad Khan whose guidance; support and encouragement

enable me to complete this assignment.

Department of Business Administration Page.3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This assignment is a research-oriented activity,

which represents both the theoretical and practical

implication of the topic. In the first section of this

assignment, I explain the theoretical aspect of the

topic and all major parts has been explained which

are involved in the method of for “Estimation and

Hypothesis testing “For empirical study, I select

Engro food company.

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Title page 01

Acknowledgement 03

Abstract 04

Table of contents 05

Case study 9

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Statistics:

extent by multiplicity of causes, numerically expressed, enumerated or

estimated according to reasonable standard of accuracy, collected in a

systematic manner for a predetermined purpose and placed in relation

to each other."

are

accuracy

1) Collection of data

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2) Presentation of data

3) Analysis of data

4) Interpretation of data

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procedure upon the raw data, it has become secondary data

which has become information and is useful for the user.

The user of this data uses it to estimate about the parameter

of the concern population, this procedure and stage of

statistic collection is called estimation.

makes inferences about a population, based on information

obtained from a sample.

Statisticians use sample statistics to estimate population parameters.

For example, sample means are used to estimate population means; sample

proportions, to estimate population proportions.

value of a statistic. For example, the sample mean x is a point estimate

of the population mean μ. Similarly, the sample proportion p is a point

estimate of the population proportion P.

between which a population parameter is said to lie. For example, a <

x < b is an interval estimate of the population mean μ. It indicates that

the population mean is greater than a but less than b.

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Confidence Intervals

uncertainty associated with a particular sampling method. A confidence

interval consists of three parts.

1. A confidence level.

2. A statistic.

3. A margin of error.

statistic and the margin of error define an interval estimate that describes the

precision of the method. The interval estimate of a confidence interval is

defined by the sample statistic + margin of error.

For example, we might say that we are 95% confident that the true

population mean falls within a specified range. This statement is a

confidence interval. It means that if we used the same sampling method to

select different samples and compute different interval estimates, the true

population mean would fall within a range defined by the sample statistic +

margin of error 95% of the time.

intervals indicate (a) the precision of the estimate and (b) the uncertainty of

the estimate.

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Confidence Level

confidence level describes how strongly we believe that a particular

sampling method will produce a confidence interval that includes the true

population parameter.

different samples, and computed confidence intervals for each sample. Some

confidence intervals would include the true population parameter; others

would not. A 95% confidence level means that 95% of the intervals contain

the true population parameter; a 90% confidence level means that 90% of the

intervals contain the population parameter; and so on.

Margin of Error

below the sample statistic is called the margin of error.

election survey and reports that the independent candidate

will receive 30% of the vote. The newspaper states that the

survey had a 5% margin of error and a confidence level of

95%. These findings result in the following confidence

interval: We are 95% confident that the independent

candidate will receive between 25% and 35% of the vote.

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but not confidence intervals. They provide the margin of

error, but not the confidence level. To clearly interpret

survey results you need to know both! We are much more

likely to accept survey findings if the confidence level is high

(say, 95%) than if it is low (say, 50%).

Testing of Hypothesis

taking a sample, we notice that one sample data does not wholly support the

result. The difference is due to

(ii) the sample being slightly one sided.

These tests tells about the likely possibilities and reveal whether or not the

difference can be due to chance elements. If the difference is not due to

chance elements it is significant and therefore, these tests are called tests of

significance. The whole procedure is known is Testing of Hypothesis.

be based on previous experience or may be derived theoretically. First a

statistician or the investigator forms a research hypothesis that an exception

is to be tested. Then he derives a statement which is opposite the research

hypothesis (noting as Ho). The approach here is to set up an assumption that

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there is no contraction between the believed result and the sample result and

that the difference therefore can be ascribed solely to chance. Such a

hypothesis is called a null hypothesis ( Ho). It is the null hypothesis that is

actually tested, not the research hypothesis. The object of the test is to see

whether the null hypothesis should be rejected or accepted.

the research hypothesis which is called as the alternative hypothesis (denoted

by Ha). In usual practice we do not say that the research hypothesis has been

"proved" only that it has been supported.

population of a college is 110 lb, then the null hypothesis will be the mean of

the population that is 110 lbs. i.e. Ho : m = 110 lbs ( Null hypothesis ). In

terms of alternative hypothesis (i) H α : µ α ≠ 110 lbs (ii) Hα : µ α >

110 lbs (iii) Hα : µ α < 110 lbs.

Once the null hypothesis is set up, the next job is to set the limits within

which we expect (the null hypothesis) m lies. The idea behind it is to ensure

that the difference between the sample value and the hypothesis should arise

due to sampling fluctuations alone. If this difference does not exceeds this

limit then the sample supports the null hypothesis and the sample is

accepted. If it exceeds this limit the sample does not support the hypothesis

and it is rejected.

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Now fixing the limits totally depends upon the accuracy desired. Generally

the limits are fixed such that the probability that the difference will exceeds

the limits is 0.05 or 0.01. These levels are known as the 'levels of

significance' and are expressed as 5% or 1% levels of significance. Rejection

of null hypothesis does not mean that the hypothesis is disproved.

It simply means that the sample values does not support the hypothesis.

Also, acceptance does not mean that the hypothesis is proved. It means

simply it is being supported.

Confidence limits

The limits (or range) within which the hypothesis should lie with specified

probabilities are called the confidence limits or fiducial limits. It is

customary to take these limits as 5% or 1% levels of significance. If sample

values lies between the confidence limits, the hypothesis is accepted; if it

does not, the hypothesis is rejected at the specified level of significance.

accept or we reject it. We do not know whether it is true or

false. Hence four possibilities may arise.

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types of errors which could occur which are detailed below:-.

Type I error:

Is committed when the null hypothesis is rejected though it is true. In

terms of probability, Type I error is denoted by α (alpha) where

A Type II error:

hypothesis, when it is false. The probability of Type II error is

denoted by (beta) where

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type of articles of good quality. A purchaser by chance

selects a sample randomly. It so happens that the sample

contains many defective articles and it leads the purchaser

to reject the whole product. Now, Murray suffers a loss even

though he has produced a good article of quality. Therefore,

this Type I error is called "producers risk".

a sample and the lot is not really good, the consumers are

put in loss. Therefore, this Type II error is called the

"consumers risk".

while accepting or rejecting a lot. The risks involved for both

producer and consumer are compared. Then Type I and Type

II errors are fixed; and a decision is reached.

Type of testing

inference, in which a given statistical hypothesis, H0

(the null hypothesis), will be rejected when the value

of the test statistic is either sufficiently small or

sufficiently large. This contrasts with a one-tailed

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"sufficiently small" or "sufficiently large" is reselected

according to the alternative hypothesis being

selected, and the hypothesis is rejected only if the

test statistic satisfies that criterion. Alternative

names are one-sided and two-sided tests.

Suppose µ = 1 0

true hypothesis

H0: µ = 10

Η1 : µ is not equal to 10

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H0:. µ ≥10

H1:. µ <10

H0:. µ ≤10

H1:. µ >10

Z-test T-test

Σ is known Σ is un- know then

n<30

Sample size >30

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EngroFood s’ History

Engro Foods (Pvt.) Limited (EFL) has been

established in 2005 as part of a diversification

process at the Engro Group. The plant located at

Sukkur on 23 acre land, has the raw milk reception

capability of 300,000 liters per day and UHT milk

capacity of 200,000liters per day. The plant has been

established at a cost of Rs. 1 billion which provides

direct employment to 750 people. Engro Foods has

entered the Food business through milk processing

and sale with the company’s vision to pursue growth

opportunities based on country fundamentals and

own strength. It also positions the company to

leverage its corporate social responsibility initiatives

and work closely with rural communities to promote

integrated farming and livestock development. This

effort is expected to play a pivotal role in poverty

alleviation and improving livelihoods of the poor in

the milk collection areas.

Vision

Department of Business Administration Page.18

foods company. To achieve our vision, the company

will initially focus on dairy by investing a substantial

amount in plant, milk collection capability and

marketing. We are making concrete efforts to expand

in and beyond Pakistan; through strategic

international alliances, to eventually become global."

Engro Food

Brands:

Olper’s milk

Olper’s cream

Olwell

Skim milk

Tarang

Tea milk

Olper’s

Olper’s –A well known brand of Engro Foods (Pvt.) Ltd.

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Research Questions

Q1. What is the extent to which Olper’s advertisement?

campaign has created a positioning for the product that was

desired by management?

consumer and what is the effectiveness of the channels being

currently used?

Research Objective

To identify the acceptability and perception of Packaged milk

brands

viewers

Consumer Perception

Research Design

Questionnaire

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positioning statements

Observational Study

TV Channels watched GEO news, GEO entertainment, ARY

Digital and PTV Network

Time watched: 4 pm to 12 pm during Weekend

Sampling criteria

Household

Sampling Design

Stratified Sampling

Demographics of Sample

Housewives 22

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35 years old

Market share

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Quality

Quality Perception

Quality perception of the brand

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TV viewing habits

30 minutes on average

Duration %

0-10 minutes 10

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11-30 minutes 34

31-60 minutes 42

1-3 hours 12

More then 3 hours 2

Programs and AD

TV Programs watched by Target Market

recall level

Indian Soaps

Olper’s, Ufone, Cooking Oil etc

Central idea

Central Idea of Ad

without Olper’s

Hypothesis 01

positioning μo≤ 2

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positioning μa> 2

Conclusion

evidence to conclude that since the mean is greater than 2,

therefore, Olper’s has been successful in establishing its

overall positioning.

Hypothesis 02

Ho: Olper’s media planning has been ineffective

Po≤50%•

Ha: Olper’s media planning has been effective

Pa>50%

Conclusion

Null hypothesis is rejected

Department of Business Administration Page.26

evidence to conclude that more than 50% of the respondents have

watched the Ad, therefore, Olper’s media planning has been

effective.

Finding

Most of the participants watched entertainment

and recipe channels/shows

watchers e.g. Nadia Khan Show, Cooking with

Rahat.

The Favorite channels among the participants

were: Geo entertainment, Hum TV, ARY, Aaj TV

& Geo news

Department of Business Administration Page.27

09:00 -12:00 and19:00 -22:00.

extent.

brand positioning and respondents showed

favorable attitude towards it.

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

1. Engro’s back

Olper’s is a brand of ENGRO foods.

ENGRO foods can easily afford research and

development.

ENGRO can distribute the brand through better

channel

2. PR with farmers

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with the farmers who are willing to supply milk to the

company.

Weaknesses

1. Olwell TVC

Olwell ad which is based on Western life style.

Failed to analyze in Pakistan, where practicing

Muslims reside,

Ignoring the ethics, religious beliefs and cultural

values.

There is no color association attached to Olper’s.

Opportunities

1. Increased funding by Government

Government has decided to increase farmers’

funding.

Each competitor in the milk industry wants to

increase penetration of processed liquid milk.

Threats

1 Perception and Price Differentials

Consumers’ perceptions and price differentials can

cause a threat for the company. It is important that

Olper’s comes up to the expectations of the

customers

Department of Business Administration Page.29

milk and that is also one factor that people still prefer

to buy lose milk.

2 Competitions

For Olper’s it might be difficult to penetrate in a

market where the loyalties exist for such brands as

Nestle and Haleeb.

Recommendation

Advertisements should be aired during these

time slots 9am 12am and evening 7pm -10pm

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Entertainment, ARY Digital, HUMTV

effective platform for mass communication

than channel based.

After TV, the widest reach and recall is of

Billboard advertisements

Advertisement Campaign:

1. The packaged milk users appear confused

about the true meaning of Olper’s media

communication

terms to reduce difference of brand image

and identity

Department of Business Administration Page.31

Reference

From the book

From google.com

From wikipedia

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