Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Naufal Sanaullah
naufalsanaullah@gmail.com Philly
Fed
and
housing
price
misses
fail
to
derail
holiday-‐
www.shadowcapitalism.com
shortened
rally
ahead
of
Easter
weekend
A
macro-‐data
intensive
Thursday
ahead
of
the
Good
Friday
holiday
showed
mixed
data,
but
the
results
fail
to
put
the
brakes
on
the
continued
rally
in
risk.
US
initial
jobless
claims
broke
the
400k
mark
once
again,
clocking
in
at
403k
vs
390k
expected,
followed
by
April’s
Philly
Fed
falling
down
to
18.5
vs
36.8
consensus
vs
43.4
prior.
US
February
housing
price
data
also
showed
a
drop,
with
a
1.6%
decline
MoM
vs
expectations
of
a
muted
0.3%
fall.
On
the
other
side
of
the
pond,
German
IFO
saw
a
beat
in
current
assessment
(116.3
vs
115.5
consensus),
but
a
small
miss
in
expectations
(104.7
vs
105.5
consensus)
due
to
rising
periphery
concerns.
UK
retail
sales
also
beat,
showing
a
0.2%
MoM
growth
in
March
against
expectations
of
a
0.5%
decline.
The
S&P
rallied
0.53%
on
Thursday,
closing
near
its
HOD
and
approaching
a
breakout
into
fresh
52
week
highs,
as
the
inverse
head
&
shoulders
pattern
I’ve
been
posting
in
recent
pieces
looks
poised
to
resolve
successfully
to
the
upside.
This
is
definitely
a
bullish
development
and
the
pattern
suggests
another
100
points
in
the
S&P
is
imminent.
Earnings
are
coming
up
for
the
majority
of
American
firms,
so
there
are
plenty
of
catalysts
for
the
market
to
move
either
way.
Margin
compression
will
definitely
be
the
name
of
the
game
as
investors
watch
for
inflation’s
impact
on
corporate
results.
EURUSD
has
been
trading
sideways
in
the
last
couple
sessions,
as
a
weakening
dollar
helps
to
mitigate
euro-‐related
concerns
that
are
hurting
other
euro
crosses.
Periphery
spreads
continue
to
widen,
and
Spanish
yields
are
testing
highs
on
a
number
of
tenors.
Spanish
10yr
paper
yielding
6%
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will
not
be
a
good
sign
going
forward
for
the
Eurozone,
and
whether
Portugal’s
issues
(which
led
it
to
seek
a
bailout)
will
lead
to
contagion
effects
in
Spain
is
going
to
be
a
vital
issue.
I
am
turning
more
bearish
on
the
euro
once
again,
against
only
strong
risk
crosses
for
now
(I
especially
like
EURSGD
short
here),
but
remain
long
EURUSD
because
of
more
USD-‐specific
factors.
Below
are
10yr
Spanish
spreads
to
Bunds
(courtesy
of
Goldman
Sachs’s
John
Noyce)
and
the
EURUSD.
USDJPY
has
taken
a
beating
in
recent
weeks,
as
an
expected
correction
from
the
massive
post-‐BoJ
surge
turned
into
a
sharper
selloff
due
to
USD
weakening
across
the
board.
The
cross
now
sits
at
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2
significant
support
around
81.50,
however,
which
also
marked
late
February
lows.
Risk
definitely
looks
back
on,
with
the
S&P
sitting
right
at
highs,
and
that
should
continue
to
weigh
on
JPY.
A
falling
yen
could
steer
the
Nikkei
back
higher
as
exporters
regain
a
bit
of
trade
advantage,
but
the
bigger
issue
is
the
massive
Japanese
debt
burden.
And
with
Japan’s
public
pension
fund
liquidating
JGB
holdings
to
finance
payments,
there
may
be
more
reasons
to
be
selling
JGBs
than
buying
at
this
point.
I
am
expecting
a
rise
in
inflation
in
Japan,
which
is
counter
to
most
analysts’
opinions,
and
a
new
bear
market
in
Japanese
government
debt
within
to
begin
within
the
next
twelve
months.
In
FX
space
(and
in
the
more
near
term),
however,
NZDJPY,
CADJPY,
and
CHFJPY
all
look
like
great
buys
at
current
levels.
As
oil
prices
rise,
natural
gas
continues
looking
increasingly
bullish.
China
is
the
second
largest
energy
consumer,
after
the
United
States,
and
is
distancing
itself
from
nuclear
power
after
Japan’s
catastrophe,
while
having
to
deal
with
increasing
geopolitical
catalysts
for
higher
oil
prices.
Natural
gas
is
the
obvious
alternative.
The
chart
is
also
bullish
with
the
large
triangle
looking
to
resolve
into
A p r i l
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3
a
breakout
that
would
carry
natgas
prices
to
$6/MMBtu
in
the
near-‐term
and
$8.50-‐9.00/MMBtu
over
the
next
several
months.
Natural
gas
equity
plays
are
already
on
the
move
and
have
been
since
Jackson
Hole
last
summer.
Silver
prices
are
up
dramatically
in
the
last
few
months,
having
rallied
more
than
60%
YTD.
The
chart
looks
very
unsustainable,
and
the
lack
of
participation
from
gold,
palladium,
or
precious
metals
equity
plays
(including
silver
miners)
adds
credence
to
that
thesis.
Contributor
Jonathan
Sheets
adds
some
great
color:
It
should
be
noted
that
the
fundamentals
(or
lack
thereof)
of
the
silver
surge
from
Feb-‐
mid
March
was
the
speculation
on
that
Comex
would
default
on
the
larger
position
of
open
interests.
Just
like
in
mid-‐November
to
early
Dec.
Now
the
commodities
traders
are
picking
up
the
pattern
and
with
May
being
a
delivery
month,
and
more
rumors
of
silver
shortages,
the
earlier
this
run
up
has
started
and
the
more
fierce.
Given
the
silver-‐specific
nature
of
this
massive
parabolic
run,
it
appears
Sheets
may
be
on
to
something.
May
COMEX
delivery
is
less
than
a
week
away,
and
with
silver
barely
below
$50/oz,
the
time
to
top-‐call
may
be
fast
approaching.
In
the
meantime,
silver
prices
are
up
another
6.5%
overnight
as
I
write
this.
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Moving
onto
equity,
coal
stocks
look
terrific
here,
with
PCX
and
WLT
seeing
some
nice
upside
volume
coming
in.
Both
look
poised
to
break
out
of
their
constructive
base
patterns
and
onto
new
highs.
Semiconductor
manufacturer
Novellus
Systems
is
showing
a
bullish
bounce
off
its
155d
and
looks
poised
to
restart
its
uptrend.
It
is
notable
that
Ray
Dalio’s
Bridgewater
Associates
(which
had
an
absolutely
monster
year
in
2010)
owns
25
million
shares
of
NVLS.
Pharmas
are
looking
bullish
again,
and
EXEL
is
showing
promise
as
it
completes
a
very
tight
six
week
base
and
bounces
off
its
55d.
This
is
definitely
one
of
the
more
bullish
charts
around
and
I
would
not
be
surprised
to
see
this
stock
double
from
current
levels
in
the
next
few
months,
especially
if
earnings
on
May
3
beat
estimates.
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Rounding things off are three tech stocks whose charts I will let do the talking:
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Tomorrow brings:
• March
US
new
home
sales
(10:00am:
+12.0%
consensus
vs
-‐16.9%
prior
–
MoM)
• April
Dallas
Fed
(10:30am:
13.4
consensus
vs
11.5
prior)
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Trades
&
Positions
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8
Trades
&
Positions
(cont’d)
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9
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in
any
purchase
or
sale
of
securities.
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