Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Future
How will energy systems be
developed for the increased demands
and changing requirements?
The Key Questions about Energy for the
Next Century
• How much energy do we need?
– What is the role of energy on human activity?
– How much energy is available?
• What is the impact of energy production
and use on the future?
2
What resources do we need?
• Transportation
– Liquid fuels (petroleum)
• Agriculture
– Natural gas, coal (fertilizers)
– Liquid fuels (farm equipment)
• Manufacturing
– Electricity (coal, nuclear)
– Chemical feedstocks (petroleum)
• Housing
– Electricity
– Heating/Cooling
3
Engineering Issues with Energy
Development
• Primary Source of Energy
– Fossil Fuels
– Nuclear
– Renewables
• Disposal of Waste Heat
– Thermal pollution of aquatic environment
• Economies of scale
– Why are large power plants more efficient than smaller plants?
• Environmental Impact
– Carbon emissions? Air/Water pollution?
– Water requirements
– Food production
4
• Community/industry integration
What do we expect for increased
energy consumption?
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf 5
Energy Use by China is the major
contributor to increased carbon emissions
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf 6
Electricity Generation
Coal will be the major source of fuel for electricity for the next
20+ years. Hydro will continue to be the major renewable source.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf 7
How do we assess how much
energy we need?
• What is the essential energy requirement for
the population?
• Can we limit and control the use of energy?
8
Human Development Index
Index Measure Minimum value Maximum value Formula
Life Expectancy
Longevity 25yrs 85 yrs
at birth (LE)
Literacy rate
0% 100%
(LR)
Education Combined gross
enrollment ratio 0% 100%
(CGER)
http://hdr.undp.org/en/
10
http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf
11
HDI Historical Trends
Human conditions
have improved as
measured by the
Human
Development Index
Correlating HDI with Human
Activity
HDI vs GDP
1.2
1
0.8
HDI goes up with
0.6
0.4
income, but also
0.2 with electricity
0
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 consumption and
GDP per capita (2005 US$)
carbon emissions
HDI vs Electricity Consumption HDI vs CO2 emissions
1.2
1.2
1
1
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0 0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Per capita electricity consumption (kWh) Per capita CO2 emissions (tonnes)
We need energy to provide a
satisfactory standard of living
14
Energy Resources and
Sustainability
16
Fast forward to 20th century
• Petroleum replaced coal for many
applications – it was easier to recover,
cheaper to transport and made the
automobile possible
17
Oil consumption and its future
• How much oil is available?
• How long will it last?
• What will be the impact on the future?
18
http://www.worldalmanac.com/blog/2008/01/world_oil_reserves_and
_consumption.html
When will the oil run out?
• 1930’s Domestic reserves
were seen as finite and
US searched elsewhere in
the world
• 1960’s Projection of oil
resources and use
indicated 25 years of
resources
• 2000 Projection of oil
resources and use
indicate 25 years of
resources (maybe 50
under favorable
assumptions)
20
Hubbard’s Peak
History of Oil Production
350000
250000
barrels)
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Jan-1900 May-1927 Oct-1954 Feb-1982 Jul-2009 Nov-2036
45000
US Crude Reserves (million barrels)
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1900 1927 1954 1982 2009 2036
History of Oil Production
• Historical growth
was 25% per year
from 1880-1985.
• Oil production and
use growth slowed
down in the
1980’s.
• What level of
increased
consumption and
use of oil will
persist?
23
Are we using petroleum in the most
beneficial manner?
What do we use oil for?
24
Technical Conflicts in Fossil Fuel Use
25
How about other resources?
• Coal resources could be expanded – do we
plan for 100’s of years rather than 10’s?
• Nuclear is available for 100’s of years, but
can we handle the waste?
• What can we expect from solar, wind, etc.
26
Renewables?
What is the long term impact of
energy production?
• Energy production does more that just
deplete a limited resource it alters our
environment.
28
Historical Emissions
Billions of Tons
16
Carbon Emitted per
Year
8 Historical
emissions
1.6
0
1950 2000 2050 2100
The Stabilization Triangle
Stabilization
Triangle Interim
8
Historical Goal
emissions Flat path
1.6
0
1950 2000 2050 2100
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 1 tC/yr.
CO2 Emissions
31
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/graph-showing-each-countrys.html
CO2 Emissions by Sector and Fuel
Allocation of 6.2 GtC/yr 2000 global CO2 emissions
Heating,
Transportationother
Electricity
Stabilization Wedges
Billions of Tons
16 16 GtC/y
Carbon Emitted per
Year
Eight “wedges”
Interim
8
Historical Goal
emissions Flat path
1.6
0
1950 2000 2050 2100
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 1 tC/yr.
Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges
Energy Efficiency
Methane Decarbonized
Management 16 GtC/y Electricity
Stabilization
Triangle Decarbonized
Forests & Soils
Fuels
8 GtC/y
2007 2057
Fuel Displacement by
Low-Carbon Electricity
Priority #1: Invent a Smart-Carbon
Post-industrial Society
The post-industrialized age features unprecedented
private consumption. In industrialized countries more
than 60% of oil is used in vehicles, more than 60% of
electricity in buildings.
Curbing global CO2 emissions will require major
changes in the post-industrial social envelope.
Efficient Use of Fuel
700 GW, with CO2 vented, will emit a billion tons of carbon
as CO2 each year. So, one electricity-carbon wedge results
from not building these plants.
Wind Electricity
Effort needed by
2055 for 1
wedge:
44