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Energy Technology for the

Future
How will energy systems be
developed for the increased demands
and changing requirements?
The Key Questions about Energy for the
Next Century
• How much energy do we need?
– What is the role of energy on human activity?
– How much energy is available?
• What is the impact of energy production
and use on the future?

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What resources do we need?
• Transportation
– Liquid fuels (petroleum)
• Agriculture
– Natural gas, coal (fertilizers)
– Liquid fuels (farm equipment)
• Manufacturing
– Electricity (coal, nuclear)
– Chemical feedstocks (petroleum)
• Housing
– Electricity
– Heating/Cooling

3
Engineering Issues with Energy
Development
• Primary Source of Energy
– Fossil Fuels
– Nuclear
– Renewables
• Disposal of Waste Heat
– Thermal pollution of aquatic environment
• Economies of scale
– Why are large power plants more efficient than smaller plants?
• Environmental Impact
– Carbon emissions? Air/Water pollution?
– Water requirements
– Food production
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• Community/industry integration
What do we expect for increased
energy consumption?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf 5
Energy Use by China is the major
contributor to increased carbon emissions

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf 6
Electricity Generation

Coal will be the major source of fuel for electricity for the next
20+ years. Hydro will continue to be the major renewable source.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/world.pdf 7
How do we assess how much
energy we need?
• What is the essential energy requirement for
the population?
• Can we limit and control the use of energy?

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Human Development Index
Index Measure Minimum value Maximum value Formula

Life Expectancy
Longevity 25yrs 85 yrs
at birth (LE)

Literacy rate
0% 100%
(LR)
Education Combined gross
enrollment ratio 0% 100%
(CGER)

GDP per capita 100 USD 40,000 USD


GDP
(PPP)
Total human
0.000 1.000
HDI development
index

http://hdr.undp.org/en/
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http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_20072008_EN_Complete.pdf
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HDI Historical Trends
Human conditions
have improved as
measured by the
Human
Development Index
Correlating HDI with Human
Activity
HDI vs GDP
1.2
1
0.8
HDI goes up with
0.6
0.4
income, but also
0.2 with electricity
0
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 consumption and
GDP per capita (2005 US$)
carbon emissions
HDI vs Electricity Consumption HDI vs CO2 emissions
1.2
1.2
1
1
0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2
0 0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Per capita electricity consumption (kWh) Per capita CO2 emissions (tonnes)
We need energy to provide a
satisfactory standard of living

14
Energy Resources and
Sustainability

How much energy is available and


how long will it last?
Why did coal become the fuel of
choice in the 18th century?
• England, France, Germany, and even the
US had deforested much of its land to use
wood for fuel.
• Discovery of coal provide a source of
energy to permitted population to grow

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Fast forward to 20th century
• Petroleum replaced coal for many
applications – it was easier to recover,
cheaper to transport and made the
automobile possible

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Oil consumption and its future
• How much oil is available?
• How long will it last?
• What will be the impact on the future?

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http://www.worldalmanac.com/blog/2008/01/world_oil_reserves_and
_consumption.html
When will the oil run out?
• 1930’s Domestic reserves
were seen as finite and
US searched elsewhere in
the world
• 1960’s Projection of oil
resources and use
indicated 25 years of
resources
• 2000 Projection of oil
resources and use
indicate 25 years of
resources (maybe 50
under favorable
assumptions)

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Hubbard’s Peak
History of Oil Production
350000

US Crude Production (thousand


300000

250000

barrels)
200000

150000

100000

50000

0
Jan-1900 May-1927 Oct-1954 Feb-1982 Jul-2009 Nov-2036
45000
US Crude Reserves (million barrels)

40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1900 1927 1954 1982 2009 2036
History of Oil Production
• Historical growth
was 25% per year
from 1880-1985.
• Oil production and
use growth slowed
down in the
1980’s.
• What level of
increased
consumption and
use of oil will
persist?

23
Are we using petroleum in the most
beneficial manner?
What do we use oil for?

24
Technical Conflicts in Fossil Fuel Use

• Choice of Fuels • High T for efficiency


• Environmental Impact – lower T for NOx
of Fossil Fuel reduction
recovery • Cost of clean up of
– Oil spills fuel versus clean stack
– Strip mining emissions
– Land reclamation – CO2 emissions
– NOx and SOx
emissions

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How about other resources?
• Coal resources could be expanded – do we
plan for 100’s of years rather than 10’s?
• Nuclear is available for 100’s of years, but
can we handle the waste?
• What can we expect from solar, wind, etc.

26
Renewables?
What is the long term impact of
energy production?
• Energy production does more that just
deplete a limited resource it alters our
environment.

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Historical Emissions

Billions of Tons
16
Carbon Emitted per
Year

8 Historical
emissions

1.6

0
1950 2000 2050 2100
The Stabilization Triangle

Billions of Tons Easier CO2 target


16
Carbon Emitted per ~850 ppm
Year

Stabilization
Triangle Interim
8
Historical Goal
emissions Flat path

1.6

0
1950 2000 2050 2100

Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 1 tC/yr.
CO2 Emissions

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http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/graph-showing-each-countrys.html
CO2 Emissions by Sector and Fuel
Allocation of 6.2 GtC/yr 2000 global CO2 emissions

Heating,
Transportationother
Electricity
Stabilization Wedges

Billions of Tons
16 16 GtC/y
Carbon Emitted per
Year

Eight “wedges”

Interim
8
Historical Goal
emissions Flat path

1.6

0
1950 2000 2050 2100

Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 1 tC/yr.
Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges

Energy Efficiency

Methane Decarbonized
Management 16 GtC/y Electricity

Stabilization
Triangle Decarbonized
Forests & Soils
Fuels
8 GtC/y
2007 2057

Fuel Displacement by
Low-Carbon Electricity
Priority #1: Invent a Smart-Carbon
Post-industrial Society
The post-industrialized age features unprecedented
private consumption. In industrialized countries more
than 60% of oil is used in vehicles, more than 60% of
electricity in buildings.
Curbing global CO2 emissions will require major
changes in the post-industrial social envelope.
Efficient Use of Fuel

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:


Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1
ton of carbon.
2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.
2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year.

Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl


Video-conferencing
Efficient Use of Electricity

motors lighting cogeneration

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:


25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in
commercial and residential buildings

Target: Commercial and multifamily buildings.


Priority #2: Redirect the Rush to Coal
The IEA Reference Scenario projects the construction of 1800
GW of new coal capacity world-wide by 2030.

700 GW, with CO2 vented, will emit a billion tons of carbon
as CO2 each year. So, one electricity-carbon wedge results
from not building these plants.
Wind Electricity

Effort needed by 2055


for 1 wedge:
One million 2-MW windmills
displacing coal power.
2006: 75,000 MW (4%)

Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany


(Danish Wind Industry Association)
Nuclear Effort needed by 2055 for 1
Electricity wedge:
700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing
coal power.

Phase out of nuclear power creates the


need for another half wedge.
Graphic courtesy of NRC
Power with Carbon Capture and Storage

Effort needed by
2055 for 1
wedge:

Carbon capture and


storage (CCS) at 800 GW
coal power plants.

CCS at 30 million barrels


of per day fuels- from-
coal plants.

Output of Wabash gasifier: CO + H2. Gases go directly to turbine.


Add for CCS power: CO + H2O Æ CO2 + H2; then CO2 - H2 separation;
then H2 to turbine, and CO2 handoff from coal industry to oil and gas industry.
Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy
Carbon Storage

Effort needed by 2055 for 1


wedge:
3500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr
900 Carson refinery projects @ 4 MtCO2/yr
100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR
A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow
of oil out of the Earth today

Sleipner project, offshore Norway


Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins
Factoring Global Changes into
Local Decisions
• Resource allocation and utilization has a global
impact
– Environmental, economic and social – equitable use of
natural resources
• Choice of technology has both immediate and
long term consequences
– Long term effects are frequently not known
• Are people willing to sacrifice for the benefit of
future generations?
– Tragedy of the commons?
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What will we do when the oil runs
out?
• Global Change and Energy: A Path
Forward, Paul E. Dimotakis

• Out of Gas. The End of the Age of Oil,


David Goodstein

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