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The oceans cover around 70% of the Earth͛s surface area; therefore it is inevitable that they have a
large effect on the global climate, and the contribution of ocean circulation systems in past and
present global climate changes is huge. A major contributor of the ocean in terms of driving global
climate change is the thermohaline circulation, which involves water being circulated due to density
contrasts in the water bodies (Bigg, 2003). A simplified structure of the thermohaline circulation
shows deep water being carried towards the Pacific Ocean; this water upwells en-route and is
transported back in near-surface currents to the North Atlantic downwelling regions, such as the
Labrador Sea, and the Weddell Sea (Bigg, 2003).

There is firm evidence for links to be made between changes in the strength of thermohaline
circulation and changes in surface climate (Clark et. al., 2002). Both coupled climate models and
analysed palaeoclimate data support the possibility of abrupt changes in thermohaline circulation
affecting global climatic condition drastically (Bigg, 2003), and changes in the strength of these
currents are, in fact, the favoured explanation for abrupt climate changes that occurred over the
North Atlantic during the last glacial period (Rahmstorf, 2003). These statements are supported by
the results from various coupled climate models, for example a simulation mentioned in Rahmstorf
(2003) that shows when the ocean͛s heat transport is switched off it leads to a large winter cooling
over the North Atlantic and nearby landmasses (A cooling of 20°C over the Nordic Sea), with a similar
outcome being shown in Fig. 1. Rahmstorf (2003) also mentions the warmer regional climate over
the North Atlantic than at comparable latitudes in the North Pacific Ocean, again reinforcing the
influence of the thermohaline circulation on regional climate. This leads to the conclusion that
understanding past trends in thermohaline circulation is crucial to our understanding of global and
regional climate change (Rahmstorf, 2003), and will aid us in assessing the likelihood of future
changes in thermohaline circulation.

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During the reconstruction of past thermohaline
circulation three distinct circulation modes have
prevailed at different times in the Atlantic
Ocean (Sarnthein et. al., 1999; Alley and Clark,
1999). The Stadial Mode involved the formation
of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the
subpolar North Atlantic; the Interstadial Mode
involved the formation of the NADW in the
Nordic Seas; and the Heinrich Mode occurs
when NADW formation ceased and waters from
Antarctica filled the deep Atlantic basin
(Rahmstorf, 2002). Fig. 2 shows the structure of
the three distinct modes of circulation.

The effects the thermohaline circulation can

have on global climate systems is evident when
reconstructions of high amplitude climatic
events are taken into account. A key series of
high amplitude climatic events that have been
reconstructed and studied are the Dansgaard-
Oeschger (D/O) events (See Fig. 3 ʹ Top). The
majority of the reconstructions of these events

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involve adjustments in the thermohaline circulation (Rahmstorf, 2002). D/O events are abrupt global
climate changes (Rahmstorf, 2001), with the amplitudes of climatic change being largest in the North
Atlantic, whilst the southern hemisphere experiences a hemispheric ͚see-saw͛ effect (Rahmstorf,
2002) (an example of the ͚see-saw͛ effect is shown in Fig.1, where the southern hemisphere is
waming as the northern hemisphere is cooling) due to the reduction in the heat transported north
from the southern hemisphere. In data collected from GISP2 (Fig.3), D/O events begin with a rapid
warming of 5-10°C within a few decades, followed by a slower cooling stage that lasts for several
centuries, before a rapid cooling back to cold-stadial conditions (Rahmstorf, 2002). There is also an
observed periodicity of around 1,500 years for D/O events (Alley et. al., 1998). The most convincing
theory in explaining D/O events, a theory that is strongly supported by model simulations, is that of
latitude convection shifts between the Nordic Sea and the mid-latitude open Atlantic Ocean
(Rahmstorf, 1994). In this theory, the warming phase is explained by a northward intrusion of warm
Atlantic waters into the Nordic Sea, whilst the prolonged cooling phase is seen as the interstadial
mode of ocean circulation (See Fig. 2) gradually weakening over several centuries and then the
drastic cooling marks the time when deep water ceases to form in the Nordic Sea (Rahmstorf, 2002).
It is known that these events are triggered by an external force, but it is unknown what the exact
nature of the trigger is (Rahmstorf, 2002).

Another series of climatic events related to thermohaline circulation are Heinrich events. These are
characterised by sediment layers (Heinrich, 1988; Hemming et. al., 2000) located in the North
Atlantic at intervals of roughly 10,000 years (Rahmstorf, 2002)(See Fig. 3 ʹ Bottom). The sediment in
the Heinrich layers is so coarse that the only possibility it that it is ice rafted debris. The variation in
the thickness of Heinrich layers ranges from several metres in the Labrador Sea to just a few
centimetres in the East Atlantic (Rahmstorf, 2002). The way in which these layers are deposited and
the reduction in layer thickness suggests large, episodic iceberg discharges (Rahmstorf, 2002), with
possibly up to 10% of the Laurentide ice sheet being discharged in one event (Bond et. al., 1992;
Andrews, 1998). Sediment data shows that during Heinrich events NADW formation could be
stopped entirely (Walker et. al., 2002; Sarnthein et. al., 1999; Keigwin et. al., 1994), this is shown in
Fig. 2 (The ͞Heinrich mode͟). This thermohaline circulation collapse is expected (Rahmstorf, 1995;
Ganopolski and Rahmstorf, 2001) due to the sea-surface density being greatly reduced with the large
influx of fresh water from the iceberg discharge (Rahmstorf, 2002). The initial triggering mechanisms
that caused the Laurentide ice sheet to discharge such a large volume of ice are unclear, with one
hypothesis of a major discharge beginning spontaneously after the ice sheet reached a critical height
(MacAyeal, 1993; Clark et. al., 1999). The climatic effects of this consist of the direct result of raising
the sea level and lowering the ice-sheet surface, with a consequence of this release of fresh water
into the Atlantic Ocean being a collapse of the thermohaline circulation (Rahmstorf, 2002). This
collapse brings about clear cold phases in the South Atlantic, with them showing larger amplitude
than the D/O warming events (Paillard and Cortijo, 1999; Cacho et. al., 1999; Bard et. al., 2000).
However stadials in Greenland are equally cold whether a Heinrich event occurs or not (Rahmstorf,
2002), this is due to the thermohaline circulation being in ͞Stadial mode͟ during Heinrich events,
meaning the ocean currents would not warm as far north as Greenland before the collapse, so the
collapse has no effect (Ganopolski and Rahmstorf, 2001).

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Coupled climate models are a major part of reconstructing past climatic changes in relation to ocean
circulation and applying any trends that are recognised to predicting future changes. These models
have now reached a level where realistic simulations of many aspects of palaeoclimate are possible
(Rahmstorf, 2002). This means a quantitative, rather than qualitative, understanding of the key
mechanisms operating within these systems is now possible (Rahmstorf, 2002). These coupled
climate models are essential in the reconstruction of past ocean-atmosphere exchanges; and
therefore they are essential in our understanding of the link between ocean circulation and global
climate and, in turn, our predictions of future changes in these systems. These models have helped
identify atmospheric greenhouse gas forcing and freshwater flux in the Atlantic as major
contributors towards altering thermohaline circulation.

Variations in freshwater flux into the Atlantic Ocean is a major components to govern the strength of
the thermohaline circulation (Clark et. al., 2002) and can result in drastic change to regional and
global climate (Bigg, 2003). The importance of freshwater budget makes identifying the key
mechanisms operating in past freshwater budget changes (E.g. those stated during the discussion of
the Heinrich events) key to understanding the past changes in thermohaline circulation, and
therefore related past global climate changes (Bond et. al., 1999; Clark et. al., 2001).

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Another very important contributor towards the strength of the thermohaline circulation, and one
that is hugely relevant in the modern world is the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases.
Most coupled climate models project that in the coming century there will be a weakening of the
thermohaline circulation as greenhouse gas forcing takes place (Cubasch et. al., 2001). This brings
about the possibility, if the warming is of sufficient magnitude and is sustained, of a thermohaline
circulation collapse (Manabe and Stauffer, 1993; Stocker and Schmittner, 1997). This is seen as a
realistic possibility, as about 8,000 years ago there was a large climate event that has been linked to
an ocean circulation change, this occurred when air temperature was similar to present times,
meaning that thermohaline collapse is possible during interstadial phases as well as stadial phases.
This weakening of Atlantic overturning can be seen as a compensation to the atmospheric warming
caused by the greenhouse effect (Clark et. al., 2002). Although the consequences are not fully
understood, it is reasonable to suggest this would have dramatic regional climatic repercussions in
the Atlantic. However, other models suggest that there will be little or no change to the
thermohaline circulation with this greenhouse gas forcing (Cubasch et. al., 2001). This theory
suggests a dominance of negative feedback mechanisms in the ocean-climate system, for example,
changes in the frequency and amplitude of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (Latif et. al.,
2000) driving climate more dominantly during warmer periods than the thermohaline circulation.
However, it is obvious that the future changes in global climate, and especially the regional climate
around the Atlantic Ocean, depend upon the response of the thermohaline circulation to
greenhouse gas forcing (Clark et. al., 2002).

However, whilst past climates have been affected heavily by the thermohaline circulation, in current
times the dominant mode of modern climate variability is the Tropical Pacific variability (Clark et. al.,
2002). This refers to the ENSO system mentioned above, which has a large regional and global effect
on climate. When the Tropical Pacific is in a normal state, northeast trade winds drive waters
towards the equator, this induces an upwelling of cold waters in the East Pacific (East Pacific Cold
Tongue), whilst in the West Pacific there is an area of warm water (West Pacific Warm Pool). The
pressure difference between the two causes strong winds travelling from East to West (As shown in
Fig.4 ʹ ͞Normal͟). When the trade winds are especially strong a La Nina event occurs, where the
West Pacific Warm Pool is confined even more by the large pressure difference. However, during an
El Nino event trade winds are a lot weaker, therefore eliminating the upwelling and stopping the
East Pacific Cold Tongue emerging (As shown in Fig.4 ʹ El Nino). As no pressure difference emerges
the West Pacific Warm Pool is allowed to spread out into the surrounding ocean, causing sea-surface
temperatures to increase, these El Nino or La Nina events occur interannually. The climatic effects of
this dispersion of warm sea-surface waters include an increased amount of precipitation due to the
warmer air temperatures increasing evaporation. Currently, it is not clear how ENSO responds in
colder or warmer climate. Some models predict that ENSO activity will remain similar to the present
day in a warmer climate, whilst others suggest there will be stronger and more frequent events
(Clark et. al., 2002). It is also not entirely clear whether ENSO events actually help to drive global
climate change or whether they are simply a response to climate change, however if they do not
drive global climate change there is still a strong case for it being a powerful positive-feedback
mechanism with the global climate. It is also apparent that Atlantic-to-Pacific moisture transport is
sensitive to the phase of ENSO (Schmittner et. al., 2000), meaning that a trend towards the
enhanced frequency of El Nino events could lead to an increase in the exportation of moisture from

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the Atlantic Ocean, therefore introducing the possibility of ENSO events affecting the thermohaline
circulation.

In conclusion, an enhancement in coupled climate models has shown us that ocean circulation has,
in the past, contributed greatly towards driving global climate change. From the evidence presented
here, we can conclude that in the present day (Interstadial phase) the main way in which ocean
circulation affects the global climate is through ENSO events, whilst in the past during stadial phases
the high-latitude Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation was more active in driving global climate change.
However, there is a possibility of major thermohaline circulation changes occurring in interstadial
phases as well as stadial phases. ENSO events are also not solely limited to interstadial conditions,
but we are uncertain on how ENSO responds to colder or warmer climatic conditions, meaning it is
proving very hard to predict the future of ENSO activity and how it will respond or contribute
towards global climate change. Nevertheless, ocean circulations, be they in the tropics or high-
latitudes, have been hugely influential on the global climate in the past, and it is more than likely
they will make a noticeable contribution in the future, as they are doing at the present time.

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