Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
mj.rosa@fcsh.unl.pt
Joana Lopes Martins
PhD Candidate
j.lopesmartins@fcsh.unl.pt
Main Topics
Portugal
2. Migration happenings
2
1. Population- an overview
Portugal
% 1900 2001
2007
0-14 33,8 16,0 65+: 17,4%
15-64 60,5 67,7
65 + 5,7 16,4
•8th oldest country in the world
Data source:
Census 1900 and 2001, National Statistics Institute (INE) •4th oldest country in EU27
Sources: INE, PRB and EUROSTAT
3
1. Population- an overview
1960 2006
TFR Country TFR Country
3,8 Ireland 2,0 France
3,2 Portugal 1,90 Ireland
3,1 Netherlands 1,85 Sweden
2,9 Spain 1,84 Finland, United Kingdom
2,7 Finland, United Kingdom, 1,83 Denmark
Austria, France 1,70 Netherlands
2,6 Belgium 1,65 Luxembourg
2,5 Denmark 1,40 Austria
2,4 Germany, Italy 1,39 Greece
2,3 Luxembourg, Greece 1,38 Spain
2,2 Sweden 1,35 Portugal
1,32 Italy, Germany
Fertility declined in the last 4 decades but it
was not the phenomenon setting off
ageing…
4
Sources: Demographic Statistics, EUROSTAT.
1. Population- an overview
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1900 1911 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1981 1991 2001 2007
10200
1981-85: Fertility and
10100 emigration decline
Source: Adapted from M. J. Carrrilho (2002), “ A situação demográfica recente em Portugal” in Revista de Estudos demográficos, INE.
2. Migration Happenings:
NATURAL and MIGRATORY CHANGES
2007- PORTUGAL
Total population: 10 608 335
80000
40000
Natural change: -1 020
20000
0
Migratory change: 19 500
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
-20000
Data Sources: Estimation of Resident Population 2007, INE; Number of Foreigners - Foreigners and Borders
Office (SEF) statistics (foreign population provisional data for 2006); Demographic Statistics 2006, INE. 7
2. Migration Happenings
1. Portugal - a new country of destination ???
(with Italy, Ireland, Norway and Spain – IOM 2005)
nevertheless
• Portugal has a long colonial history
• The 1st mass wave of migration was in mid 1970s (~1million
arrivals)
• Those flows evolved from a politically to an economic
motivation
• Many of these individuals have naturalized and we lost the
track of them in statistics. Still, it would be worth to
acknowledge their demographic behaviors – i.e. there is the
need for different sorts of data.
8
2. Migration Happenings
2. Three basic ideas
1. The first wave of migration was very diverse (citizenship
status, race, socio-economic status…). E.g. there is no
direct link between by then migration from colonies and
foreign status.
9
3. Immigrants – from variety to contrasts
Post-colonial migrants? A question of numbers or a question
of social visibility?
priority!
Data Source: SEF statistics and Estimation of Data source: Census 2001, INE
11
Resident Population 2007, INE
3. Points in case:
the bias of aggregated figures
Examples:
National perspectives become ever more limited as foreigners
tend to concentrate in particular districts. Smaller units of
analysis may reveal higher contributions for socio-
demographic structures;
Foreigners have different age structures according to
regional/national origin;
Levels of fertility vary greatly by mothers’ origin and there
are also some evidences showing a tendency to lower the gap
with national levels as time of permanence increases.
Education levels vary by nationality but also within
nationalities
12
3.1. Contrasts: Regional issues
3 regions, 3 different issues?
(2006)
Reinforcing ageing?
Labor migrations?
Uckrain
China
Cape Verde
Brazil
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percent
0-14 15-64 65+
Data Sources: Foreigners – SEF statistics; National population – Demographic Statistics 2007, 14
INE.
3.2. Contrasts: Age structures
“Dependency” ratios, Portugal (2006)
YDR ODR TDR
Portugal 23 26 49
Data Sources: Foreigners – SEF statistics ; Nationals - Demographic Statistics 2007, INE. 15
3.3. Fertility contrasts - 2006
TFR - Portugal 1,4
TFR – Portuguese women 1,2
Mozambique 1,6
Guinea Bissau 1,7
+ France 2,0
United Kingdom 1,2 Cape Verde 2,1
Netherlands 1,1 Russia 2,4
Germany 0,8 S. Tome and Principe 2,9
-
Angola 3,0
Brazil 4,6 Contribution to
Moldova 5,1 higher national
TFR or ‘pockets
Romania 11,1 of exclusion’?
Note about sources: while births concern all reported births by age and citizenship of the mother in 2006,
fertile population is based only on women with residence permits. This last fact leads to a particular
underestimation of certain stocks (e.g. Romania). Once all population is considered TFR may fall at least to
half. Nevertheless, fertility patterns will remain high.
40
18-24
30
20
10
0
Moldávia
S.Tomé e
França
Reino Unido
Bulgária
Roménia
Rússia
Ucrânia
Angola
Cabo Verde
Bissau
Moçambique
Alemanha
Espanha
Guiné-
Brasil
Nacional
Príncipe
Média
School trajectories still underway or educational downgrade???
18
Higher qualifications do not guarantee better jobs (Dual labor market theory)
Sources: Valente Rosa 2005 and Census 2001, INE in ACIME 2005. 19
4. Final thoughts
In Portugal aggregated and average figures somehow
underestimate the impact of migration;
mj.rosa@fcsh.unl.pt
Joana Lopes Martins
PhD Candidate
j.lopesmartins@fcsh.unl.pt