Two-child policy is a government-imposed limit of only two children in a family.

It is used for
some population groups in China, has previously been used in Vietnam [1], and has lately been
discussed in the Philippines. Although not by law, citizens of Hong Kong are also highly
encouraged to have two children as a limit, and it is used as part of the region's family planning
strategies.

WHY IMPOSE A TWO CHILD POLICY FOR THE

FILIPINO FAMILY?
By: Ernesto R. Gonzales, Ph. D
Director, Social Researcher Institute
University of Santo Tomas
(Concurrently Chair, Economics, National Research Council of the Philippines)

The belief that population growth is the primary reason for poverty is a great fallacy. In
fact, it has long been proven to be fallacious.

This belief was first espoused by Prof. Robert Malthus (University of Cambridge, 1785)
but was proven false by Prof. Simon Kuznets one hundred seventy three years later.
For disproving the fallacy, Kuznets was awarded the Noble Prize in Economics, in 1971.

This Principle of Malthus, that population grows geometrically while production grows
arithmetically, became the basic assumptions in his Theory on the Iron Law of Wages
which he posited was the primary reason behind poverty in Europe at the start of the
Industrial Revolution.

However, Simon Kuznets was able to validate scientifically that Malthus was all wrong
because economic growth is fastest during the time that the population growth was
highest. This was validated in Europe during the 100 years industrialization of the
European continent. Prof. Yamamoto of Japan, held the same conviction also, based on
his observation that the economic growth in Japan was the highest during the 1970’s.
He was referring to the dramatic economic takeover of Japan in the World Market for
cars and electronic products during the last three decades of the 20th Century. The
main reason for this correlation between population growth and economic growth is
simple – there was an increase in the demand pool in the population that grew. There
were more buyers for products made, so naturally production grew and employment
grew, and poverty was eradicated.

The natural and expected result in the equation however did not happen in the
Philippines, because purchasing power was removed from the population that grew.
People could not buy because they had no money; and they had no money because
they had no jobs or income earnings. The earnings that could easily have gone on to
the people through industry were siphoned off by payments to a ballooning international
and domestic debt, by tremendous tax cuts and tax holidays being given to foreign
investments prejudicial to the internal economic growth of the country and most of all by
the shameful and rampant corruption in the government. Instead of the people earning,
it is the government official and a select few who were making all the money.

Against this perspective, we therefore present our inevitable conviction that the
proposed measure to limit family size to only 2 children is a useless exercise in
demagoguery and an admission of failure. It is convenient for politicians to attack
population when they are out of remedies for the country’s extreme poverty due to their
unabated graft and corruption and because they are not willing to plug the leakage of
income to only a select few. Poverty is the result of the connivance between
government and the oligarchy to keep the ordinary Filipino out of the growth and
expansion of the Philippine economy. Consider that there is no clear and sincere
economic policy formulated in this country to lighten the load of ordinary Filipinos.
Today, the national economy of this sovereign country is no longer ours anymore. We
have already lost our middle income group. People are poor because our leaders prefer
them to be ignorant and poor; because as ignorant and poor, they can easily be
manipulated to vote for those corrupt politicians whose main ambition is solely to enrich
themselves at the expense of the people.

Sad facts to ponder are that today, almost half of the population are entrapped in
poverty that is not of their own making and are experiencing literal hunger and
deprivation of human rights.

While we agree that prudence must be employed to determine the right size of the
family for everyone, we are grievously concerned that some of our lawmakers are
dangerously treading on moral grounds which are no longer the safe purview of
economics. Life is never an area that can be manipulated by people, let alone
politicians. This is not their turf. Let the one who creates life determine how it should be
dispensed.

(Author is an economist and Director of the Social Research Center of the University of
Santo Tomas, Manila. He is also a member of the worldwide Society of Catholic Social
Scientists of the Franciscan University of Steubenville, Steubenville, Ohio, USA.)
• The Two-Child Policy
Posted Friday, July 24, 2009 10:17 AM | By William Saletan

Oops!
Remember that Chinese policy of restricting most couples
to one child? Apparently, the bean counters in Shanghai
(actually, they're human-being counters) have changed
their minds. According to Reuters:
Shanghai is urging eligible couples to have two children
as worries about the looming liability of an aging
population outweighs concerns about over-stretched
resources, a city official said on Friday. The policy marks the first time in decades
Chinese officials have actively encouraged procreation. ... More children would help
relieve the heavy pressure from aging people, said Zhang Meixin, a spokesman for the
Shanghai Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission ...
The U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies warned in April that by
2050 China ... will have just 1.6 working-age adults to support every person aged 60
and above, compared with 7.7 in 1975. ... China's underfunded state pension system
and shrinking family size has removed a traditional layer of support for elders, leaving
society ill-prepared to cope with an aging population.
You don't say.
This is the main problem with central family planning (if you don't count the tyranny).
Centralized systems are more farsighted but less sensitive and adaptive than
decentralized systems. Look at abortion rates in nontotalitarian countries: They go up or
down in conjunction with economic indicators. Each woman decides how big a family
she can afford and whether now is a good time to have a baby. Sure, there are outliers
and mistakes. But overall, the crowd of procreators acts prudently. And when
circumstances change, family size adjusts accordingly.
Centralized systems interfere with this natural dynamic. They make it harder to change
course. And they never seem to learn that the problem is centralization itself.
So good luck, Shanghai being counters. May your generational ledgers even out,
despite you.

Shanghai urges 'two-child policy'

Officials in Shanghai are urging

parents to have a second child, the
first time in decades the government
has pushed for more babies.
A public information campaign has been
launched to highlight exemptions to the
country's one-child policy.
China's only children are often
Couples who were both only children, which includes most of the city's newly-
weds, are allowed a second child.

The move comes as China's most

populous city becomes richer and older, ANALYSIS
with the number of retired residents Micky Bristow, BBC
soaring. News
"Shanghai's over-60 population already Chinese and foreign
exceeds three million, or 21.6% of experts have been saying for some

registered residents," said Zhang Meixin,
a spokesman for the city's Municipal
Population and Family Planning
Commission.
Leaflet campaign
He said the current average number of
children born to a woman over her
time that China needs to change
its strict family planning rules.
If the country continues as it is,
the proportion of elderly people in
society will continue to increase.
This is a problem because it will

lifetime was less than one. leave a smaller group of workers

paying for the country's retired
"If all couples have children according to population.

the policy, it would definitely help relieve But central government officials
have consistently ruled out
pressure in the long term," he added.
changing the national family
Decades of a strictly enforced one-child
planning policy.
policy has produced new strains across
They still believe that China has
the population and prompted exceptions
too many people - an opinion
in some family categories. Rural parents
shared by almost everyone in the
are also allowed to have a second child, country.
if the first-born is a girl. That has left individual cities, such
In Shanghai, family planning officials and as Shanghai, to think up ways of
volunteers will make home visits and slip coping with their own ageing
leaflets under doors to encourage communities.
couples to have a second child if both
grew up as only children.
Emotional and financial counselling will also be provided, officials said.
By 2020, the country's most populous city is expected to have more than a
third of residents aged 60 or above.
Policy relaxed
According to the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, by
2050 the country will have just 1.6 working-age adults to support each
retired person, compared to 7.7 in 1975. CHINA'S ONE-CHILD POLICY
The state-controlled newspaper China Written into the constitution in
Daily quoted one salesman who said he 1978

was cheered by the new attitude. Government says has prevented

about 400 million births
"I'm not sure, but such policy really gives
Many rural couples allowed second
us one more option. If family finance child if first is a girl
permits, I want to have two kids with my
Parents who are themselves only
wife in the future," said 25-year-old Xiao
children can have two children
Wang, who works at a local company.
Ethnic minority couples allowed
Others were less enthusiastic.
two or more children
"I don't think we will have a second kid,"
said 26-year-old Xiao Chen, an office
China's child policy: your stories
worker. "After all, it is stressful work
Has the one-child policy worked?
raising a child."
China's 'perfect child' generation
Couples who ignore China's birth control
Grey areas in one-child policy
policies usually pay fines and may face
Send us your comments
discrimination at work.
The many only children of China have earned the nickname of "little
emperors" for the love and treats lavished upon them.
China's birth-control policies have been hugely controversial at home and
abroad, as enforcement has involved forced abortions and other abuses.
It has also been blamed for a gender imbalance, as a traditional preference
for boys has persuaded some parents to abort girl

Vietnam's two-child policy Search BBC

News Online

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Vietnam restricts families to two children Bottom of Form

By Owen Bennett-

Seven years after introducing

a two child per family policy,
Vietnam's population control
programme has become one
In the late 1980s Vietnamese
women had an average of 3.8
children - that compares with
2.3 children today.

Officials say that reduction

has been a crucial element of
the economic and social BBC RADIO NEWS
development programmes
introduced in the era of Doi
Moi or renovation. The population is still
growing by more than 1m a
"They have been very year
successful," said Omar Ertur
the UN Population Fund's BBC ONE TV NEWS
Representative in Hanoi. "They have achieved a tremendous
reduction in a very short period of time."
A degree of coercion is used to enforce the two-child policy.
Communist Party members
who have more than two face WORLD NEWS
automatic expulsion and SUMMARY
parents are often asked to
Sons and daughters
But while some local
authorities and employers
impose penalties, they are BBC NEWS 24
not enforced on a nationwide BULLETIN

Some families still go for

three or more children. In
many such cases they are PROGRAMMES
couples who have had two GUIDE
daughters and want a son.
China has a strict one-child
See also:
There is also a tendency for
poorer families to have larger policy
families.
25 Sep 00 | Asia-Pacific
Family planning officials argue that as their education China steps up 'one child' policy
programmes begin to hit home, there is less and less need for
coercion. 04 Sep 00 | Business
"We have focussed on information and education so people The UN and world poverty
can persuade themselves that having a smaller family will
bring benefits to them," said Tran Tien Duc, the Information 22 Sep 00 | Asia-Pacific
Director of the National Committee for Population and Chinese officials held over baby death
Family Planning.
"We have conducted surveys and have come to the 09 Oct 00 | Asia-Pacific
conclusion that coercive measures do not play an important Vietnam's children suffer obesity
role in reducing population growth."
Changing attitudes 12 Oct 99 | World population
Population: Why we should worry
There is evidence that
attitudes to family size are 31 Mar 00 | Asia-Pacific
changing. Many young
Vietnam jails baby smugglers
"My friends want just one or
two children so that they can Internet links:
enjoy their life," said Khanh,
38, who works for a western
company in Hanoi. UN Population Division

United Nations Population Fund

"Now we have a new
concept of quality of life - if Population Action International
we have too many children
we have to find the money to Vietnam Online
support the babies and we
have to spend so much time Many Vietnamese prefer a Vietnamese Embassy in the US
looking after them." boy to a girl
Despite the steady drop in
the population growth rate The BBC is not responsible for the
throughout the 1990s officials fear there are still too many content of external internet sites
people being born.
The Vietnamese population, currently 79 million, increases Top Asia-Pacific stories now:
by over one million every year.
But there are no plans to emulate neighbouring China's one-
child policy. Blaze kills 42 in Indonesian bar

"We consider two children is a very reasonable fertility level China vows to overhaul courts
for our country," says Mr Duc.
Abortion Koreas trade fresh war of words

One reason why Vietnam is holding back from a one-child Philippines Church apologises for sex
policy is a fear the population's gender balance would be
abuse
affected.
"In so called chopstick culture countries - like Vietnam, Search for 'spy' pilots in China
China, Korea, Japan and Taiwan - there is still a strong son
preference." added Mr Duc. Chinese chemical spill kills 13
"If you have a one-child policy many couple will try to have
only a boy." Malaysian state passes Islamic law

There are already over 900,000 officially registered Vietnam's unburied soldiers head home
abortions in Vietnam each year.
In many cases people use abortion as a form of
contraception. But as modern technology makes it easier to
identify the sex of a foetus, abortions can be used to ensure Links to more Asia-Pacific stories are
the birth of a son rather than a daughter. at the foot of the page.

What are the benefits of two child policy?

In: History Politics and Society, Religion and Spirituality, Politics and
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The benefits of a two-child policy are in direct relation to the parents ability to adequately
provide for them. The social impact is even more significant because it would determine the
housing and economic needs of the entire society and its ability to sustain the population
increase.

Note: There are comments associated with this question. See the discussion page to add to the
conversation
Church: "Two-child policy is anti-family"

Manila (AsiaNews) – A bill on managing population growth that was

recently introduced in the House of Representatives met strong
opposition from the Catholic Church for violating "religious and spouses'
freedom".
The "Reproductive Health Act" was submitted by Congressman Edcel Lagman. It speaks of
"reproductive health", "parental responsibility", "population management", ideas taken from
United Nations documents that are inspired by a radical ideology.
Under the bill, "the State shall adopt an integrated and comprehensive policy on reproductive
health in connection with sustainable human development and effective population management
that values the dignity of every human person and affords full protection to people's rights".
The bill encourages "the limitation of the number of children to an affordable level of two
children per family," and calls upon the government to "encourage two children as the ideal
family size [. . .] to attain the desired population growth rate."
"Population management" will also involve preferential treatment. "Children from [two-child]
families shall have preference in the grant of scholarship at the tertiary level."
The Filipino Catholic Church strongly opposes the bill. According to Attorney Jo Imbong, Legal
Office Executive Secretary of the Philippine Bishops' Conference, "the bill makes a mockery of
the inherent rights of the family. It defies the State's constitutional mandate to value and protect
the institution of marriage, strengthen the family and foster its solidarity and full development,"
he said.
The two-child policy "violates the spouses' right to religious belief [which does] not only mean
the freedom to believe but also includes the freedom to act on one's belief."
The bill also includes "a heightened nationwide multi-media campaign to raise the level of public
awareness" about population issues. It also proposes a three-year tax exemption for
manufacturers of family planning devices "and related reproductive health products."
The bill's backers argue that the country's population growth, which stands at 2.36% per year (the
highest in the world), is the main cause for inadequate government educational and health
programmes. Others like attorney Imbong believe that run-away corruption in government is the
main cause of poverty among Filipinos. (SE)
Philippine Health Department supports two-child
policy

The Philippine Department of Health favores the two-child policy proposed by

the House of Representatives to address the population explosion in the
country, a local newspaper reported Friday.
Health Secretary Manuel Dayrit told Manila Standard that the proposal to
encourage couples to have only two children is compatible with the
government's advocacy of spacing, a three-year period between pregnancies.
Dayrit said that his department is willing to support the House bill as long as it
is not coercive even if it goes against the stand of the Catholic Church, which
is dominant in the country.
"We are open to the idea as long as it is not coercive and remains consistent
with position of the administration on birth spacing and responsible
parenthood. We would implement family planning policies even if it conflicts
with stand of the Catholic Church provided they are lawful, legal and approved
by the government," he said.
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo admitted Thursday that the population
control would not stand as a priority in her next six-year term and it was not
included in her State of Nation Address delivered on Monday.
However, lawmakers continue their effort to promote the policy to brake the
growing birth rate in the country, whose population is estimated at 84 million
currently and still growing annually at a rate of 2.36 percent, the highest in
Asia.
House Speaker Jose de Venecia said Wednesday that he would proposed a
two-child policy for the government to address the overpopulation problem.
"Our resources can only afford a small population and the two-child policy is
part of my strategy to save the nation because over population will kill the
nation," de Venecia said.
In the House, two more bills were filed Thursday by nine lawmakers to address
the overpopulation problem, seeking to establish an integrated population
policy and provide for reproductive health structures.
"The president has no policy on population control and she tosses the problem
to local executives, who have not been instructed to carry out a policy
depending on our beliefs and positions," Reps. Loretta Ann Rosales said.
Experts warn that a massive population burden would undermine the country's
effort to rebuild the national economy, especially discourage Arroyo's pledge to
create 6 million to 10 million jobs during her six-year presidency.
However, the Roman Catholic Church, whose believers account for 70 percent
of Filipinos, has been opposing any artificial means of birth control.
Arroyo, a staunch Catholic, earlier said that the government supports family
planning and birth control in the country but implementation has been left to
local governments.
Source: Xinhua