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Homework #12
(due Friday, December 10, by 3:00 p.m.)
YN + 1 = µ + φ1 (YN – µ ) + φ2 (YN – 1 – µ ) + eN + 1
yˆ N +1 = E N ( Y N + 1 ) = µ + φ 1 ( y N – µ ) + φ 2 ( y N – 1 – µ )
YN + 2 = µ + φ1 (YN + 1 – µ ) + φ2 (YN – µ ) + eN + 2
yˆ N + 2 = E N ( Y N + 2 ) = µ + φ 1 ( yˆ N +1 – µ ) + φ 2 ( y N – µ )
φ1 0 .3
ρ1 = φ1 + φ2 ρ1 ⇒ ρ1 = = = 1 .
1−φ 2 1 − 0. 1 3
Both are outside the unit circle. That is, | z 1 | > 1, | z 2 | > 1.
OR
Yt = µ + φ1 (Yt – 1 – µ ) + φ2 (Yt – 2 – µ ) + et
ρ1 = φ1 + φ2 ρ1
ρ2 = φ1 ρ1 + φ2
0.40 = φ 1 + 0.40 φ 2 ×5 2 = 5 φ1 + 2 φ2
– 0.26 = 0.40 φ 1 + φ 2 ×2 – 0.52 = 0.80 φ 1 + 2 φ 2
⇒ φˆ 2 = – 0.50.
b) If φ 1 and φ 2 are equal to your answers to part (a), is this process stationary?
& – 0.60 Y
& &
Y t t − 1 + 0.50 Y t − 2 = e t
Φ ( z ) = 1 – 0.60 z + 0.50 z 2 = 0.
OR
ŷ 61 = µ̂ + φˆ1 ( y 60 – µ̂ ) + φˆ 2 ( y 59 – µ̂ )
= 200 + 0.60 ( 215 – 200 ) – 0.50 ( 190 – 200 ) = 214.
ŷ 62 = µ̂ + φˆ1 ( ŷ 61 – µ̂ ) + φˆ 2 ( y 60 – µ̂ )
= 200 + 0.60 ( 214 – 200 ) – 0.50 ( 215 – 200 ) = 200.9.
ŷ 63 = µ̂ + φˆ1 ( ŷ 62 – µ̂ ) + φˆ 2 ( ŷ 61 – µ̂ )
= 200 + 0.60 ( 200.9 – 200 ) – 0.50 ( 214 – 200 ) = 193.54.
3. 10.24 (a) Consider the ARMA ( 1, 1 ) model
( Y t – 60 ) + 0.3 ( Y t – 1 – 60 ) = e t – 0.4 e t – 1
which was fitted to a time series where the last 10 values are
60, 57, 52, 59, 62, 59, 63, 67, 61, 58
Calculate the forecasts of the next two observations, and indicate how forecasts can be
calculated for lead times greater than two. Show what happens to the forecasts as the
lead time becomes arbitrarily large.
( Y N + 1 – 60 ) = – 0.3 ( Y N – 60 ) + e N + 1 – 0.4 e N
yˆ N +1 = E N ( Y N + 1 ) = 60 – 0.3 ( y N – 60 ) – 0.4 ê N
= 60 – 0.3 ( 58 – 60 ) – 0.4 ( – 2 ) = 61.4.
( Y N + 2 – 60 ) = – 0.3 ( Y N + 1 – 60 ) + e N + 2 – 0.4 e N + 1
yˆ N + 2 = E N ( Y N + 2 ) = 60 – 0.3 ( yˆ N +1 – 60 )
= 60 – 0.3 ( 61.4 – 60 ) = 59.58.
( Y N + l – 60 ) = – 0.3 ( Y N + l – 1 – 60 ) + e N + l – 0.4 e N + l – 1
l>2 yˆ N + l – 60 = – 0.3 ( yˆ N + l −1 – 60 )
⇒ yˆ N + l – 60 = ( – 0.3 ) l – 1 ( yˆ N +1 – 60 )
⇒ yˆ N + l = 60 + 1.4 × ( – 0.3 ) l – 1
⇒ yˆ N + l → 60 as l → ∞
For fun:
b)* Given σˆ e2 = 4, calculate 90-percent probability limits for the next two observations.
Interpret these limits.
1
Y t – 60 = ⋅ ( 1 − 0 .4 B ) e t
1 + 0 .3 B
( )
= 1 − 0.3B + 0.09 B 2 − 0.027 B 3 + 0.0081B 4 − 0.00243B 5 + ... ⋅ ( 1 − 0.4 B ) e t
Var ( Y N + 1 – yˆ N +1 ) = σ e2 . σˆ e2 = 4.
61.4 ± 1.645 × 4 61.4 ± 3.29
Var ( Y N + 2 – yˆ N + 2 ) = ( 1 + ( – 0.70 ) 2 ) σ e2 .
( 1 + ( – 0.70 ) 2 ) σˆ e2 = 5.96.
59.58 ± 1.645 × 5.96 59.58 ± 4.016
4. https://netfiles.uiuc.edu/stepanov/www/ur.dat contains the U.S.
unemployment rate series. These are seasonally adjusted quarterly rates from 1948-1978.
a) Model Identification:
acf(ur.ts)
pacf(ur.ts)
b) Estimation:
AR ( 2 ): ( Yt – µ ) – φ1 ( Yt – 1 – µ ) – φ2 ( Yt – 2 – µ ) = e t
c) Diagnostic Checking:
d) Forecasting:
Now, we will forecast the next 2 quarters ahead using predict function.
> acf(ur.ts)
> pacf(ur.ts)
> tsdiag(fit)
Standardized Residuals plot does not appear to have noticible patterns. Standardized
Residuals seem “random” and bell-shared (a lot of them are close to zero, with just a few
away from zero). Most of the Standardized Residuals are between – 2 and 2, only one is
outside ( – 3, 3 ).
The ACF of the Residuals looks like the ACF of white noise – the only significant
autocorrelation coefficient is ρ 0 = 1.
$se
Qtr2 Qtr3
1978 0.3572328 0.6589087