CONFLICT CYCLE

Reflections on Kenya
Kisuke Ndiku
PRECISE
January 2008

Kenya is going through normal stages of conflict which have happened in all other conflicts in the world. What is important
is to be aware of them now, and each person takes personal responsibility in prayer and action to de-escalate the conflict and
work towards peace building and reconciliation. There would be need for restorative justice between perpetrators and those
affected by conflict. These are stages that require skilled techniques and effective community processes. This aspect of post
conflict processes and action is not covered in this synopsis.

It has become common to describe conflicts as passing through a series of phases. Different authors name and describe these
stages differently, but most include, at a minimum. Below are some illustration on the phases and effects of conflict:

PHASES OF CONFLICT

Escalation of No Conflict
conflict

Emergence of
Latent Conflict
Conflict

EFFECTS OF CONFLICT

Conflict will always have immediate and long term effects. Below is a diagram illustrating some of the key parts of the
effects of conflict. The approach, methods and techniques for settlement and post-conflict peace including reconciliation
should be done with out creating more harm. They should not perpetrate any animosity; hatred and desire for retribution
should be handled vide restorative justice processes. Skills persons should be involved at all levels of the process.
Recognition of unresolved issues should be honest and clear to all parties going through the reconciliation and restorative
process.

Post-Conflict Hurtful Stalemate

Harmful actions like civil
Peace-building and strife, fighting, killings,
Reconciliation unforgiveness, revenge,
hatred

Settlement De-Escalation
Resolution
The two models are not separate but a continuum of each other at different levels. These phases are frequently shown on a
diagram that looks something like this, please note that the progress from one stage to the next is not smooth and conflicts
may repeat stages several times.

BROAD CAUSES OF CONFLICT SHOULD BE EXPLORED AND ADDRESSED

The potential for conflict exists whenever people have different needs, values, or interests; this is the "latent" conflict stage.
The conflict may not become apparent until a "triggering event" leads to the emergence (or beginning) of the obvious
conflict. Emergence may be followed quickly by settlement or resolution, or it may be followed by escalation, which can
become very destructive.

Escalation, however, cannot continue indefinitely. De-escalation can be temporary or can be part of a broader trend toward
settlement or resolution. Or escalation may lead to a stalemate, a situation in which neither side can win. If the pain of
continuing the conflict exceeds that of maintaining the confrontation, the parties are in what Zartman calls a "hurting
stalemate," which often presents an ideal opportunity for negotiation and a potential settlement. Finally, if and when an
agreement is reached, peacebuilding efforts work to repair damaged relationships with the long-term goal of reconciling
former opponents.

Some scholars add other phases to this list. For intractable conflict, in particular, Kriesberg adds failed peacemaking efforts
after escalation, and institutionalization of destructive conflict after that. This latter stage is closely linked with the hurting
stalemate.

Understanding and Living in Diversities

Choice

No one has a choice of the family, community group or locality they were born. An important aspect is that of addressing
diversities as a positive and not a negative. It is easier to find difference more than points of commonality even in a
peaceful neighborhood or family. Learning from nature and creation and the richness it provides is always an important
point to start from. The need to use non-violent means of peace building and civic action would be a useful approach for
addressing conflict contexts.

Ethnocentrism

Ethnocentrism is a dangerous element in any community as it jeopardizes peace. The diversity of culture social norms and
localities one comes from, the opportunities and privileges that one gets from belong to their part of society are not to be use
against others.

However, the incidences of Mungiki, Sabaot liberation movement, raise serious concern as to where there should not be
conflict preparedness among all well meaning people and institutions of society to handle the reasons behind such elements
as Mungiki and others in society. What is the root cause?

Sentinels for Early Warning and Preparedness

Complex emergencies and conflicts are exceptional and need much more thought in handling the process for de-escalation
then transit to other stages before the post conflict work begins. In Kenya none of the events were of the complex
emergency and conflict level. The events of Eldoret, Elgon, Kisumu, including Kibera, Bahati, Huruma and Mathare in
Nairobi underline the need to re-define who is my neighbour, what is tribalism, what is ethnicity.

Civil Society

The civil society might have to develop sentinels aimed at early warning and preparedness. This would need constant
monitoring, documentation and sharing for action news, information, data and all leads that would help check and indicators
of possible conflict to undermine peaceful co-existence as communities live together.