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2008 US Presidential Election:

Why did Obama win in 2008 and Kerry loose in 2004?

On November 4th 2008, Barack Obama won the United States General Election and became
the first African American to ever hold the office of President of the United States. He fought
off Republican John McCain in a the presidential election after gaining Democratic nomination
in a fierce battle against Hillary Clinton. In 2004 Obama’s predecessor, Republican George W.
Bush, was reelected president against Democratic challenger John Kerry.

A clear factor in Obama winning the 2008 election was that after 2 terms of Republican
presidency, ‘the desire among Americans for change in the White House was strong’. [1]
Many issues, including the wars in the middle east, hurricane Katrina and national scandals
involving Republican party members, led many Americans to desire change. George W.
Bush’s two terms in office were up, leaving approval ratings of below 40% for John McCain
to try build back up[2] - Obama accused him of being another Bush, agreeing with him ’90%
of the time’ and that it was Bush’s overspending in the years up to the financial crisis that
made it worse.[3] This was not at all helpful for McCain’s campaign, as the people he needed
to win over were the people who were moving to the Democrats due to raising disapproval of
president Bush. Obama knew this and so used it throughout debates, to both win over the
approval of his party but also pick up independents and republicans who couldn’t vote Bush.

Obama had the momentum of change on his side, and so when he took up the nomination
for the Democratic presidential candidate, his speech was based entirely around change.
This reignited his campaign, after fighting hard against Hillary for the nomination - something
itself which could have destroyed his campaign - and many believe this carried him through
to winning the presidential title. [4]

In both elections it is clear that a solid stance on a main topic voters are concerned about is
required for victory. In 2008, 62% of voters held the Economy as the most important issue
for the election. According to Political Scientist Larry Sabato, a struggling economy predicts a
win for the non-incumbent party. [5] Obama’s solid stance on the Economy boosted his poll
scores, and until McCain finally settled with Joe the Plumber, his ratings were as fluctuating
as his message. [6] A presidential candidate needs strength and the ability to run with a
message that people can easily take hold of, which Obama successfully did with his
‘Change’ message that arguably won him the election.

In 2004, Bush’s approval ratings had dropped since 9/11 but many Americans still supported
him as president, especially in the time leading up to the election campaign. [7] Operation
Iraqi Freedom was still relatively fresh and Bush was still very popular with Republican Voters.
Making his focus national security, Bush kept a strong message throughout his campaign.
Kerry on the other hand flitted between over 10 major issues that lead to many would be
voters becoming disillusioned. [8] Polls showed that after from the beginning of September,
once Bush had set out his main pledges in the Republican National Convention, they were
between 3% and 9% higher spread than Kerry right up to election day. [9] Each candidate
had attacks made about them publicly, but Kerry was the one who was impacted the most,
as his service history and military service were brought into question. [10]

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History wasn’t kind to McCain as only twice since the Civil War have presidents been elected
from a party which has had 2 terms in office. Some have argued that any Democrat would
have won the election, as many Republican voters simply wouldn’t turn up, as they couldn’t
bring themselves to vote for Obama but couldn’t stand more ‘just like Bush’. [11] However,
looking at the sheer number of people who voted for McCain, this is called into question.

The intense democratic primaries between Hillary Clinton and Obama could have destroyed
the Democratic nomination before either started even campaigning. It wasn’t until June 3rd
that Obama clinched the nomination with 54% of the delegates.[12] After many personal
attacks between Obama and Clinton, many believed it would end their chances of winning
the election in November. When Senator Clinton officially endorsed Obama, the Democratic
party spirit was unified, and all fear of any party disunity was gone, leaving the Democrats in a
strong position to compete for President. [13]

In 2004 Bush had incumbency and all the state primaries behind him leading into the battle
with John Kerry, who hadn’t done badly himself in the primaries, winning all but 4 states, and
over 60% of the popular vote. This strong support from the main Republican core helped
kick-start Bush’s campaign. Unlike the boost the 2008 Convention gave Obama, the
Democrats 2004 Convention was a flop, and ‘barely boosted Kerry in the polls at all’, quite
unfortunate when he blitzed the primaries. His campaign never recovered. [14] With a better
show during the convention, Kerry could have won over at least a few percentage points in
the polls which then in turn could have made Bush wobble, but a poor show made Bush’s
job of reelection easier, to a point of winning by a higher margin than in 2000.

John McCain, with a history of partnership with a disliked president, had to find the balance
between winning his own party’s faithful and appealing to those in the center ground who
would decide the fate of the election. Styling himself as a ‘maverick’, he had the reputation of
disagreeing with his party on certain issues.[15] At age 72, he was the oldest person to be
standing as a first time president. Many worried that he could easily die in office, leaving the
very inexperience and under-qualified Sarah Palin in the White House. Not over any non-
hockey-mom’s dead body. Trying to win over the more hard-core Republicans, where he as a
center man fell down, he lost the trust of many non-Republicans, as they called into question
his ability to choose suited people for top jobs. [16]

Obama was younger, fresher, with 2 daughters and lots of charisma. He was the first
Democrat to win over 51% of the popular vote since 1964 and the first northern liberal to win
the White House since JFK. He ran a ‘technically perfect ground campaign’. With Chris
Hughes, he devised an internet fundraising system that raised over $400m. [17]

Even though there was a lot going against McCain, Barack Obama still had to win the
election. His campaign was brilliant. He outspent, out-advertised and out organized John
McCain to victory. Obama raised $468,841,844 and spent $391,437,724, compared with
McCain’s $224,341,010 and $197,354,887. [18] This allowed him to have a much larger
campaign army, headed up by many influential people in each state, allowing for a database
of vital information to be drawn up. Obama bought hours of airtime, allowing vital coverage to
the 300million voters. The more Obama campaigned, the more he seemed to raise, which

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could be put right back into more campaigning. He was an exceptional speaker, and
captivated millions of people world wide. [19]

John Kerry wasn’t a great politician. He had a mediocre Senate experience and focused far
too much on his time in Vietnam. People knew what George Bush was about: “home and
abroad: Expand Liberty.” [20] Many hated him, but many loved him - and these were the
people who voted him in. Kerry on the other hand never set down on a topic. He tried to
focus on national security in debates, but was smashed down by Bush, who was the expert
on security. Many said he should have beased bush on the death toll in Iraq, seemingly unfair
tax breaks for the wealthy and other central issues, especially during the televised debates.
[21]

Voting behavior gives an indication of why Obama won in 2008, but Kerry failed to beat Bush
in 2004. Traditionally, minority voters have been strong supporters of the Democratic party.
Barack Obama won 95% of the black vote compared to 88% that Kerry won. Obama also
won 13% more younger voters, which again traditionally voted for the Democrats. Although
not huge, when Democrats loose large numbers of these groups we see that on the whole,
the Democrat will have done poorly across the whole country.[22] Another group that the
Democrats have done well with, but Kerry failed to fully understand were the Hispanics. Gore
in 2000 won 67% compared with Kerry’s 44%. By 2004 Bush made more of an effort,
speaking Spanish and having direct family ties both helped, but with their political views being
far more in line with Kerry, he should have done better. [23]

When comparing Kerry to Obama, Obama picked up all areas that Kerry dropped. The youth
vote, which was up 12% added to the fact that there were record levels of youth turned out,
the hispanic vote, up 10%, the big cities, up 10%, and the battleground that Kerry really
blundered - the suburbs. In the past 10 elections, whoever won the majority of the suburbs
has won the election. Many swing between the left and right, depending on the economic
climate, who is standing and how well the incumbent has done. [24]

Both winners had a very strong campaign in place. Kerry didn’t and just wasn’t good enough
to beat Bush. He went down well with Democrats in the primaries because his campaign was
entirely anti-Bush, but when it came to the general public and the independents he needed to
win, his anti-Bush campaign didn’t go down well with voters. The US people knew what
Bush was about, and didn’t need telling again - this was Kerry’s main mistake. Obama, on
the other hand, was something fresh and something the US public wanted. The world joined
with the United States and added momentum and drive behind Barack Obama and his race
for the White House. His internet campaign, raising millions of dollars, allowed him to
outspent McCain 4 to 1 overall, and in key states such as Indiana as high as 7 to 1. Most of
this was spent on advertisements and outmuscling McCain on the ground, with a very
professional and well ordered team. “Mr. Obama's victory may show the enduring truth of the
old Chicago Golden Rule: He who has the gold rules.” [25]

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Bibliography
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Dan Leedham 2008 US Presidential Election For 03112010