We are waiting for a disastrous earthquake in northern areas of Pakistan

After the earthquake of October 8, 2005, most of the people are thinking about
motion of tectonic plates, release of sub surface energy, divergence and
convergence of plate boundaries and many other criterions, which cause the
happening of an earthquake.

While we are discussing any earthquake of the world, there arise many questions
regarding it. But two things are of much importance in the happening of
earthquake, which gives us an idea about the amount of energy, accumulated
inside the earth. They are “Pre shocks” and “After shocks”.

Energy is produced due to the presence of radioactive elements in the crustal and
mantle region of the earth. As these radioactive elements try to stabilize
themselves, a chain reaction series is produced with the release of energy in
addition, which causes melting of lithosphere, disturbing the internal conditions of
earth.

As this energy fills the chambers of earth, it tries to move up towards the earth
surface through weaker zones, producing or activating an existing fault. When this
energy rushes towards the earth surface in a smaller amount, it causes the sudden
vibration of earth. As more and more energy is released, it widens the weaker zone.
So a maximum amount of energy follows this smaller release and causes a major
earthquake. After the occurrence of this major quake, the remaining energy again
slowly starts to release out to re-stabilize the position of tectonic plates.

Following is given the diagrammatic conditions of energy release.

So when this remaining energy release out, it again causes the minor shacking of
the earth.

Pre-shocks are considered as more effective criteria for the prediction of a major
upcoming earthquake.

As the intensity of pre-shock increases by an average amount in the same area, so

we can conclude that a major earthquake is following these shocks.

Now as we are looking at the past few months, it is observed that there occurred
five to six minor earthquakes till now in the northern areas of Pakistan including
Kohistan, Chitral, Mansehra, Balakot, Azad Kashmir, Kaghan as well as along Pak-
Afghan boundary in Hindukush range.

When we study the tectonic map of Pakistan, this is the area with high tectonic
relief. As two major tectonic plates (Indian and Eurasian) collides in this zone, Major
faults like Main boundary thrust (MBT), their splays, Hazara-Kashmir syntexis and
many other tectonic features covers this large area in the form of an arc, ranging
from south-west of Pakistan (approaching the Chaman strike slip fault) to north-
eastern zone of the country.

As all the recent minor earthquakes were happened in this area in the range of 4.0
to 6.0 magnitudes. So it gives a clue that there is possibility of a major earthquake
event happening within some years (not exactly predictable) in the northern areas
of Pakistan.
(May Allah bless us all with His mercy, and protect us from such type of catastrophic
disasters. Ameen)

Syed Junaid shah (MS Scholar)

National center of excellence in Geology, University of Peshawar (Pakistan)

geoajk@hotmail.com

+92-333-6414-008