MAY/JUNE 2011 Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.

Inside This Issue Strouse Realty Group

American Dream Realty
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 Scotts Valley, CA 95066
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 (831) 338-6481
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 DRE #01228878
> ANNUAL TABLES ................................. 4

The Real Estate Report

local market trends SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Apr 11 Mar 11 Apr 10
Median Price: $ 470,500 $ 480,000 $ 551,500
Av erage Price: $ 523,754 $ 534,374 $ 590,673
Units Sold: 133 167 100
Home Sales Up Fourth Month in a Row Inv entory : 637 580 641
Sale/List Price Ratio: 96.8% 97.8% 97.1%
Although sales of single-family, re-sale homes MORE STATISTICS… Day s on Market: 89 101 65
unexpectedly fell compared to March, a very unu- Year-over-year, home inventory was down for the Day s of Inv entory 139 104 186
sual event, they were up in April, year-over-year, first month since last March: -0.6%.
for the fourth month in a row by a healthy 33%.
The sales price to list price ratio turned around last
The median price for single-family, re-sale homes month and dropped one point to 96.8%.
in Santa Cruz County was down 14.7% year-over-
year, while the average price declined 11.3%. Pending sales were off for the ninth month in a row:
14.7%.
SALES MOMENTUM… All these statistics are year-over-year.
although still negative, started trending upward last
month and is now at –5, a gain of 4 points. IN THE CONDO MARKET…
Our momentum stats are calculated using a 12- the median price was down 11.9% year-over-year.
month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By Condos sales were flat year-over-year.
comparing this year’s 12-month moving average to
last year’s, we get a percentage showing market Pending sales were down for the eighth month in a
momentum. row year-over-year: 24.2%.

PENDING MOMENTUM… Inventory, on the other hand, increased for the

a harbinger of future sales, while still positive, has
been trending downward. Last month the number
was –3, a decline from +1 the month before.
PRICING MOMENTUM…
after peaking at +12% last August, has also been
trending downward and is now at –3.
eleventh month in a row: up 38% year-over-year.
Remember, the real estate market is a matter of
neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.
For complete information on a particular neighbor-
hood or property, call.

Santa Cruz County Homes: Sales Momentum

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMA
-20.0% 6 7 8 9 0 1

-40.0%

-60.0%
Sales Pending Median © 2011 rereport.com

Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. | Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com | (831) 338-6481

 The Real Estate Report

Mortgage Rate Outlook

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Apr 29, 2011 -- Mortgage rates, seemingly as uncon- Growth is already weaker and inflation rising. The
cerned about inflation as the Fed appears to be, initial estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter of
04-11 found new reasons to drift downward, and there may this year came in at 1.75%, a considerable downshift
01-11 be reason to believe that we could see more of this from the 3.11% clip seen in the fourth quarter of
10-10
07-10 as Summer approaches. 2010. PCE inflation for the quarter climbed to 3.5%
04-10 from 1.7% in 4Q10, and "core" PCE moved from
HSH.com's overall mortgage tracker -- our weekly
01-10 0.4% to 1.5% over the same three-month period. In
10-09 Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that
his press session, Mr. Bernanke took some pains to
07-09 the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mort-
express that the Fed believes these inflation trends
04-09 gages declined by three basis points (.03%) to 5.06%
01-09 are "transitory"; rising food and gasoline prices may
A key component of the first-time homebuyer market,
10-08 indeed foster slower growth, and such slowing would
FHA-backed 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by just
07-08 eventually serve to cool price pressures, but would
04-08 two basis points, falling to 4.72% for the week. Hybrid
carry unwanted implications for the economy as well.
01-08 5/1 ARMs averaged 3.66% this week, down five-
10-07 hundredths of a percent from last week's average. The Fed again characterized the housing sector as
07-07 "depressed". Even outstanding mortgage rates are
04-07 The Fed released their new forecast for GDP growth
01-07 failing to overcome poor economic conditions which
and inflation for the coming year. The new forecasts
10-06 are perpetuating a lack of demand. Plus, home prices
call for slower economic growth (centering around a
07-06 are still softening in many areas, and that removes
04-06 3.2% annual pace, down from about 3.7% in the
the urgency for a potential homebuyer to move quick-
01-06 January forecast). Inflation expectations were
10-05
ly. Sales of new homes did move higher in March,
ratcheted up considerably; the Personal Consump-
07-05 but the 300,000 annualized rate of sale remains
tion Expenditure (PCE) inflation (the Fed's preferred
04-05 among the weakest on record. At the moment, there
01-05 gauge) increased from a January forecast of about
are about 7.3 months of available supply, with
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 1.5% to a new 2.4% expectation. Essentially, growth
183,000 units built and ready to sell. In the face of
is expected to be weaker and inflation higher.
such soft demand, builders won't or can't build more
"on spec" in hopes of finding future buyers.
The chart above shows the National
monthly average for 30-year fixed Santa Cruz County Homes - Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
rate mortgages as compiled by
HSH.com. The average includes mort- $1,000 200

Single-family Hom e Sales

Median & Average Prices

gages of all sizes, including conforming, $900 180

"expanded conforming," and jumbo. $800 160
$700 140
120
$600
100
$500
80
$400 60
$300 40
$200 20
$100 0
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMA
7 8 9 0 1

Santa Cruz County - April 2011

Single-Family Homes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven
County $ 470,500 $ 523,754 133 297 637 139 96.8% -14.7% -11.3% 33.0% -14.7% -0.6%
Aptos $ 516,000 $ 498,000 4 12 36 261 90.9% -10.3% -3.9% 33.3% -25.0% -28.0%
Capitola $ 604,250 $ 576,875 4 7 23 167 95.4% -9.8% -3.1% -20.0% 250.0% 9.5%
Rio del Mar $ 735,000 $ 754,135 13 16 56 125 97.7% 8.2% 20.4% 160.0% 6.7% -24.3%
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. Seacliff $ 491,000 $ 617,000 3 4 16 155 96.1% -34.9% -18.8% 0.0% -33.3% 14.3%
Strouse Realty Group San Lorenzo Vly $ 331,000 $ 326,560 26 48 89 99 96.3% -19.4% -19.7% 85.7% -28.4% 6.0%
American Dream Realty Soquel $ 436,000 $ 423,667 3 19 38 367 95.8% -45.5% -48.6% -40.0% 18.8% 26.7%
5522 Scotts Valley Dr. Scotts Valley $ 656,500 $ 670,850 10 29 68 197 94.5% -22.4% -28.7% 25.0% 7.4% -9.3%
Scotts Valley, CA 95066 Santa Cruz $ 613,000 $ 683,709 36 75 150 121 96.9% -1.5% -6.1% 38.5% 4.2% 6.4%
(831) 338-6481 East County $ 290,000 $ 383,415 13 32 72 161 100.8% -2.0% -3.8% -7.1% -17.9% 22.0%
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com West County $ 405,000 $ 405,000 1 7 17 493 101.4% -27.7% -27.7% 0.0% 40.0% 6.3%
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com Watsonv ille $ 320,000 $ 291,588 17 41 28 48 97.1% -8.6% -8.8% 30.8% -21.2% 115.4%
DRE #01228878

Page 2
 Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
Santa Cruz County Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Price Change
Strouse Realty Group
40.0% American Dream Realty
30.0% 5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
20.0% Scotts Valley, CA 95066
10.0% (831) 338-6481
0.0% Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
-10.0% 0 F MA M J J A S O N D 0 F MA M J J A S O N D 0 F MA M J J A S O N D 1 F MA M J J A S O N D 1 F MA http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
-20.0% 7 8 9 0 1 DRE #01228878
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%

FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure pro- In January, cancellations were up 11.7% year-over-
cess, in Santa Cruz County decreased 32.1% in March year, and up 11.7% from February.
from the year before. Notices were up 14.7% from Feb-
Properties going back to the bank rose in March from
ruary.
February by 22.6%. Year-over-year, properties going
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc- back to the back also rose 22.6%.
tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before
The total number of homes that have had a notice of
sale, were down 22.3% year-over-year, and down
default filed declined by 20.1% in March compared to
16.9% from January.
March 2010. They were down 2.7% from February.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are
The total number of homes scheduled for sale de-
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
creased by 6.3% from February, and, were down 3.9%
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
year-over-year.
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-
quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone- Unfortunately, the total number of homes owned by the
ments. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the banks was up 24.8% year-over-year. Ouch!
bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically
an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO
inventory.

Santa Cruz County Condos- Prices & Sales Table Definitions

(3-month moving average—prices in $000's) _______________
$700 45
s Median Price
e 40
c
ir $600 The price at which 50% of prices
P 35 were higher and 50%were lower.
e$500 s
g 30 le
a a
r 25 S
e$400
v o Average Price
A 20 d Add all prices and divide by the
n
&$300 15 o number of sales.
n C
a
i 10
d$200
e 5 SP/LP
M
$100 0 Sales price to list price ratio or the
0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 1 FMAMJ J ASOND 1 F price paid for the property divided by
7 8 9 0 1 the asking price.

Santa Cruz County - April 2011 DOI

Days of Inventory, or how many
Condos/Townhomes % Change from Year Before days it would take to sell all the
Prices Prices property for sale at the current rate
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven of sales.
County $ 292,500 $ 320,496 35 69 207 172 97.7% -11.9% -10.7% 0.0% -24.2% 38.0%
Aptos $ 274,750 $ 274,750 2 2 4 58 98.2% -21.5% -21.5% 0.0% -50.0% 33.3%
Capitola $ 271,500 $ 351,080 5 7 10 58 99.3% -12.4% 13.3% 150.0% -36.4% -37.5%
Pend
Property under contract to sell that
Rio del Mar $ 447,500 $ 447,500 2 3 36 522 96.5% 12.2% -20.0% -60.0% 0.0% 38.5% hasn’t closed escrow.
Scotts Valley $ 347,450 $ 344,975 4 11 5 36 99.0% -5.8% -2.2% 33.3% 120.0% -28.6%
Santa Cruz $ 351,500 $ 395,245 10 20 66 191 96.0% 0.4% -2.7% 11.1% -16.7% 26.9%
Watsonv ille $ 200,000 $ 201,846 9 15 19 61 99.8% -7.0% -4.2% 12.5% -28.6% 111.1%
Inven
Number of properties actively for
sale as of the last day of the month.

Page 3
THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
Santa Cruz County

Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.

American Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
Scotts Valley, CA 95066
(831) 338-6481
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com

Go online to see the full report

with the city by city breakdown:

http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com

Santa Cruz County Foreclosures

Total Inventories
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
10 F M A M J J 10 S O N D 11
Preforeclosure Scheduled for Sale Bank Owned

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Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied or given.