Sie sind auf Seite 1von 46

Yara International ASA

Credit Suisse Chemical & Ag Conference


New York, 14 September 2010
CEO Jørgen Ole Haslestad
1

A business strategy geared for


global optimization

Downstream

Upstream
Industrial

Supply & Trade

Scale
advantages + Unique
flexibility + Unrivalled
presence

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
2

Yara – a global market leader in fertilizer


2008 and 2009 revenues, USD billion

Yara

Mosaic*

Agrium
2009
PCS 2008

K+S

ICL

CF

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
* 12 months ending November

Source: Thomson Worldscope

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
3

Yara – the leader in nitrogen fertilizers

Global no 1 in NPK
Global no 1 in ammonia Global no 1 in nitrates complex fertilizer
Production capacity* (mill t) Production capacity* (mill t) Production capacity* (mill t)

9 7 8
8 6 7
7 6
5
6
5
5 4
4
4 3
3
3
2 2
2
1 1 1
0 0 0
Yara CF Agrium PCS Koch Yara Acron Euroc. OCI Chekas. Yara* Acron Police BASF Rossosh

* Incl. companies’ shares of JVs


Source: Yara & Fertecon Source: British Sulphur, EFMA Source: Nitrex-Complex

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
4

Global downstream presence with sales offices


in more than 50 countries
50%

Europe
10 mil tons

North America
13%
2.6 mil. tons Asia
12% 2.4 mil. tons

Africa
8% 1.6 mil. tons

17% Latin America


3.4 mil. tons

Sales
Yara plants
Joint venture plants
Sales offices

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
5

Downstream business creates partnerships

LIFECO Burrup

QAFCO Rossosh

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
6

Yaras operating cash costs are mainly variable


Operating cash costs 2009

NOK billions
60  Temporary plant closures can be
made speedy and with limited
50 stop/start costs

40  Example for ammonia/urea plants:


– Takes half a week to stop and a
Variable costs (88%)
30 47.4 week to start
- Raw materials
- Energy – Cost of stopping is 2 days energy
- Freight consumption
20 - 3rd party finished fertilizer
– Cost of starting is 3 days energy
consumption
10

6.6 Other cash cost (12%)


0

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
7

Yara flexibility to produce or import


ammonia in Europe

Million tons
6
5.0 3.2  Yara can swing 2/3 of European
5
ammonia production without affecting
4
fertilizer production

3
 Almost all Yara nitrate and NPK
2
capacity has ammonia import flexibility

1.3
1
Land-locked
plants** 0.5
0
Yara Europe* Flexible Non-flex

Yara can mitigate high European energy costs or take advantage


of low ammonia prices by closing ammonia production and run
most of nitrates and NPK based on imported ammonia.
* Including equity share of joint venture capacity
** Yara European sites without deep sea ammonia import/export terminals: Tertre and Pardies

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
8

Global fertilizer consumption has


returned, except for potash

Nitrogen consumption Phosphate consumption Potash consumption


Million tons of Nitrogen Million tons of P2O5 Million tons of K2O

+1%
102.4
+3% -3%
101.2 -21%
+9% 28.9
38.4 37.2 -1%
99.3
34.2 23.2 22.9

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Source: IFA, June 2010

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
9

Grain consumption expected to


exceed production

Grain production and consumption Days of consumption


Million tons Days

2,300 125
2,250 Consumption
115
2,200
2,150 105
2,100 95
2,050
Production 85
2,000 Reduced from
81 days in
1,950 75 May report to
1,900 72 days
65
1,850
1,800 55
99 01 03 05 07 09 11F 99 01 03 05 07 09 11F
May estimate

Source: USDA, August 2010

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
10

GHG emissions from farming represent


26% of total emissions

Global GHG emissions 2004 = 49 bn t CO2eq

Agriculture (26%)
Production of mineral N fertilizer (0.8%)*
N2O from mineral N fertilizer use (1.3%)*
N2O from organic N sources (3.8%)
Other agricultural GHGs, mainly
CH4 (8.4%)

Land use change to agriculture (12%)

Source: Based on IPCC (2007), Bellarby et al. (2008), *EFMA calculation

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
11

Fertilizer reduces carbon footprint from farming

Fertilizer - an efficient solar energy catalyst


 Production marginal part of carbon footprint - efficient application more important
 Huge positive effects of fertilizer use by lower land use

Production Application
 Yara’s production more energy-efficient than  Nitrates better than urea
competitor average  Precision farming (N-tester etc.)
 Yara developed N2O catalyst  Balanced fertilization (NPK)

3.6 kg 0.1 kg 5.6 kg 75 kg 75 kg


CO2 eqv CO2 CO2 eqv CO2 CO2

PRODUCTION TRANSPORTATION FARMING HARVEST CONSUMPTION CAPTURE

© Yara 2010

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
12

Yara launches carbon footprint guarantee

 Launched in Sweden, Norway,


Denmark and Finland
 Yara fertilizers meet the
requirements of Swedish Climate
Certification for food
 Carbon footprint guarantee to
respond consumer demand.
 Data and methodology verified by
DNV
 Yara commits also to support
farmers in optimizing fertilizer use

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
13

Lower GHG emissions from nitrates than urea

Life-cycle perspective:
Fertilizer production Application to soil Production & application

Kg CO2 eq/Kg N

* CAN production includes N2O abatement catalyst

A life-cycle perspective on fertilizers is important


(otherwise regulators may wrongly favour urea)

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
14

Positioned to take a share of DEF* market


in North America

 Strong multiple sourcing


position, enabling Yara to
respond to demand growth

 Transfer of expertise and


value of European Air1
leadership position

 Partnership with Mansfield,


USA’s largest independent
fuel distributor

* Diesel Exhaust Fluid, similar to AdBlue in Europe

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
15

Prospects next twelve months

 Global demand for agricultural products is strong

 USDA estimates a substantial drop in global grain inventories as yield


expectations are lowered following less favorable weather

 Biofuels can further boost demand if increased US gasoline blending levels


are approved

 Higher urea price needed to motivate Chinese export increase as domestic


energy prices strengthen and Yuan may appreciate

 Sales of nitrogen chemicals and TAN continue to increase due to higher


industrial and mining activity

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
16

Yara’s growth ambition is firm

 Scalable business model geared


for profitable expansions

 Withdrawal from Terra bidding war


- Sluiskil
demonstrates strict focus on:
- Qafco 5&6  Capital discipline
 Attractive valuation
- Kemira Growhow
- Belle Plaine
- Libya  Timing and search for synergies
- Balderton
remain essential

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
17

Strong balance sheet


Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)

0.9 0.84
0.8 0.75
0.7 0.63
0.6 0.57 0.56
0.49
0.5
0.41 0.42 0.40 0.38
0.4 0.34 0.35 0.34
0.28
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
2007 2008 2009 2010

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
18

Yara’s value creating acquisition track-record

Belle Plaine EBITDA Fosfertil timing


MNOK MUSD
350 1,000
300 800
250
200 600
150
400
100
50 200
0
0
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
Purchase 2006 Sale 2010
EV/EBITDA multiple of 8 in a supply
driven market

Kemira GrowHow
realized synergies Other key acquisitions:
60-70 ~300  Rossosh: Low cost NPK
MEUR
 Burrup: Low cost gas
Hard  Qafco: Scale and low cost gas
 Lifeco: Productivity and low cost gas
Soft
 Balderton: Sourcing and trading capabilities
Synergies Employee reduction

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
19

More information can be found at www.yara.com

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
Additional information
21

Yara sensitivities overstate actual


volatility of Yara’s cash flow
Operating EBITDA Operating EBITDA
Income USD Income NOK EPS**
USD million million NOK million million NOK
Urea sensitivity +10 USD/t 95 110 552 627 1.70
…of which pure Urea 30 40 173 231 0.63
…of which Nitrates 37 40 215 221 0.59
…of which NPK 23 25 133 144 0.37
Nitrate premium +10 USD/t of CAN 81 87 470 505 1.29
…of which pure Nitrates 58 63 338 363 0.93
Ammonia +10 USD/t - 5 - 29 0.07
Phos rock +10 USD/t 10 10 58 58 0.14
Crude oil +1 USD/brl (8) (8) (46) (46) (0.11)
Hub gas -- Europe +0.1 USD/MMBtu (10) (11) (53) (62) (0.16)
Hub gas – Henry Hub +0.1 USD/MMBtu (3) (3) (15) (15) (0.04)
Currency + 0.1 NOK/USD 9 9 127 152 0.37
...of which translation effect - - 75 100 0.24
...and EUR & NOK net fixed cost 9 9 52 52 0.13
* Assuming NOK/USD = 5.78, USD/EUR = 1.47 and constant NOK/EUR
** Assuming 28% marginal tax rate on underlying business and 288.8 million shares

Sensitivities assume full production and no inter-correlation between factors

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
22

Highly profitable shift to hub and spot priced


natural gas
Evolution of gas contract structure Europe Yara’s average European gas prices 2009

USD/MMBtu
NAT.
9
GAS
15 % 8
OIL- 25 %
LINKED 7
6
70 % 65%
SPOT 55% 5
GAS
4
3
20% 20% 2
SPOT 30%
OIL 1
NON- 0
GAS 2006 2009 2010 Oil-linked* Forward Spot

The strategy of switching to spot based contracts has yielded savings of more than 2 billion NOK in
Europe last twelve month
* Ferrara, Brunsbüttel and Porsgrunn from January 2010

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
23

Fertilizer market by application

N+P+K NITROGEN

Wheat Wheat
15.1% 17.3%
Other Other
15.6% 16.0%

Rice
Fruit & veg 14.4% Rice
17.1% Fruit & veg
15.6% 15.6%

Sugar crops
Sugar crops 3.4%
4.5% Cotton Maize Cotton
15.3% 3.9% Maize
3.6%
Other oilseed Oilseed 16.8%
4.4% Soybean Other cereal 6.3%
Other cereal
3.7% 4.8% 5.1%

Source: IFA (2008/09)

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
24

Low European producer nitrate stocks

Index,
June 2007=1
1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2
06/07
1.0
08/09
0.8 09/10
07/08
0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Source: European Fertilizer Manufacturing Association, Yara estimate for June 2010

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
25

Strong nitrate market

Nitrate premium
proxy*
50 %
45 %
40 %
35 %
30 %
25 %
20 %
15 %
10 %
5%
0%
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Avg 02-07 09/10 season 10/11 season

* Urea fob Black Sea adjusted for freight (USD 35) and duty (6.5%) to calculate a CFR NWE proxy

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
26

Improved NPK volume mix

NPK deliveries NPK margins*


Kilotons USD/t
100
1,600
90
1,400
80
1,200
70
-3%
1,000 Other 60
OPP Europe 50
800
40
600
30
+26%
400
20
200 10

0 0
08/09 09/10 2006 2007 3Q09 1Q10 2Q10

* Product from Porsgrunn, Glomfjord, Ravenna and Montoir

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
27

Chinese exports needed to balance


the global market

Accumulated urea exports Urea price and export tax

Kilotons USD per ton Export tax


6,000 900 200 %
800 180 %
5,000 2007
700 160 %
2008 140 %
4,000 600
Export tax 120 %
2009 500
Urea fob 100 %
3,000
400 Black Sea
80 %
2,000 300
60 %
2010
200 40 %
1,000 100 20 %
0 0%
0

Apr

Apr

Apr

Apr
Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul
Oct

Oct

Oct

Oct
Jan 07

Jan 08

Jan 09

Jan 10
Source: BOABC

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
28

Increasing anthracite coal prices in China

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
29

More LNG expected into Europe

LNG imports into UK, Natural gas price,


Belgium and France August contract*
USD per
BCM MMBtu
16 8

14 7 7.6

12 13.5 6

10 10.6 5

8 4 4.4
6 3
4 2
2 1
0 0
2Q10 4Q10 F Henry Hub Zeebrugge Hub

Source: Gaselys * Based on forward prices as of 7 July

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
30

Non-commercials’ net long position in corn

Thousand contracts

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

-50
Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10

Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
31

Nitrogen deliveries picked up from last season

USA Western Europe


Million tons Million tons
8.0
16.0

14.0 7.0 +4%


+6%

12.0 6.0

10.0 5.0
+12%
8.0 4.0

6.0 3.0

4.0 2.0

2.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
Jul-May 08/09 Jul-May 09/10 08/09 09/10
Production Net imports Domestic Imports

Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries.
Total nitrogen deliveries estimate in USA based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
32

Indian urea deficit

Sales - Production
Kt
8,000
7,000 08/09
6,000 07/08
09/10
5,000
06/07
4,000
3,000
2,000 05/06
1,000
10/11 04/05
0
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

 Kharif (July planting) – imports Apr-Sep


 Rabi (November planting) – imports Oct-Jan
Source: Indian Statistics

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
33

Spot natural gas versus Yara average*

Yearly averages 2004 – 2008, quarterly averages for 2009 and 2010 with forward prices for 2010**
USD per MMBtu
14

12 12.0

10
8.4 8.6
9.6 8.0
7.5
8 7.0 7.0
6.7 6.7
6.3
6.0 6.2 5.9
6 5.4 5.4
5.0 5.2
4.4 4.5
4.1 5.6 5.6 5.3
4
4.4
3.5
2

0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global Zeebrugge day ahead Yara Europe

* Yara averages include Kemira GrowHow from 4Q 2007


**Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 7 July
Source: Yara, World Bank, Platts

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
34

Estimated European energy cost

NOK millions
2,500 Actual for quarter July 2010 estimate*
2,000
Cost change on previous year

1,500
1,000 550
500
500 186
0
-500 (314)
-1,000
-1,500 (1,153)
-2,000
-2,500
4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

* Based on forward prices as of 7 July

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
35

Yield response of P and K

Phosphate yield effects Potash yield effects on


on Barley in Sweden silage grass in UK

Source: Yara trials

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
36

Will new capacity come on stream as planned?

Year Global urea capacity growth estimate Driving regions


World Excluding China World Excluding China
2009 5.0% (5.7%) 1.5% (2.3%) China 82% Oman 44%
Oman 8% Egypt 23%
2010 7.4% (7.7%) 4.2% (4.3%) China 67% Pakistan 16%
Pakistan 5% Trinidad 14%
2011 7.7% (5.3%) 4.2% (3.2%) China 69% Pakistan 24%
Pakistan 7% Qatar 19%
2012 5.0% (3.9%) 3.8% (4.6%) China 57% Algeria 33%
Algeria 14% Vietnam 25%
2013 3.4% (3.3%) 4.8% (4.9%) China 22% UAE 20%
* Including announced closures only
UAE 16% Algeria 20%
Average urea consumption growth has been 4.8% last 5 years, 2.9% excluding China

Source: Fertecon update June 2010

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
37

Fertilizer volumes down 9% on last year

Kilotons
Outside Europe Europe
7,000
6,284
6,104 6,017
6,000 2,835
2,575
5,256 5,179 3,015
5,210 5,216 5,129
4,763 4,742 4,882 4,791 4,759
5,000 2,388 2,827 2,658 2,765 2,146
2,629 2,290 2,355 2,412
2,180
4,000 3,496
3,710
1,540
3,000 3,269
2,868 3,002 2,983
2,562 2,592 2,551 2,451
2,436
2,000 2,352
2,135
2,347
1,956

1,000

0
2007 2008 2009 2010

Accumulated, Kt

Fin. fertilizer 21,303 20,540 20,099 9,888

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
38

Yara 2Q fertilizer sales by market and product


2010: 4.8 million tons (2009: 5.2 million tons)

Kilotons
2Q09 2Q10
3,000
2,551
2,500 2,347

2,000
1,500
764 805 859
1,000 719 631
485 459
500 349

0
Europe Latin America Asia North America Africa

Kilotons

3,000
2Q09 2Q10

2,000 1,619
1,385 1,458
1,163 1,102 1,075
1,000
517 468 380 350
206 245

0
NPK Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
39

Yara – production volume*

Finished fertilizer Ammonia

Kilotons Kilotons
5,000 2,000

4,500 1,800

4,000 1,600

3,500 1,400

3,000 1,200

2,500 1,000

2,000 800

1,500 600

1,000 400

500 200

0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010

Urea Nitrates NPK CN UAN

* Including share of equity-accounted investees

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
40

Yara’s targeted step growth


categories unchanged

Mature markets

North America Europe


Distribution

Growth markets

China India Brazil

Industrial applications
Competitive
Sourcing

Middle
East/ North Sub
Qatar Australia Trinidad FSU Africa Sahara

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
41

Net debt development

NOK
millions
16,000
15,227
15,000 963
14,000
532 12,932
13,000 1,781 220 718
12,000 1,228

11,000 648
10,000
4,383
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
Net interest- Cash earnings* Dividends Net operating Fosfertil (net, Other Yara dividend Foreign Other Net interest-
bearing debt received** capital change after tax paid) investments and share exchange bearing debt
Mar10 (net) buybacks gain/loss Jun10

* Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/loss on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges
** Dividend received from equity-accounted investees

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
42

Key value drivers – quarterly averages

Oil Brent blend spot (USD/bbl) Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t) CAN cif Germany (USD/t)

300 282 300


90 78 256
75 76 243 243 249 246 239
80 236 250
68 250
70 202
59 183
60 200 200
50 150 150
40
30 100 100
20 50
50
10
0 0 0
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10

US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu)


Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t) NOK/USD exchange rate
6
5.1 400 10
5 4.4
335 333
4.3 350 9
288 8
4 3.7 300 6.5
3.2 242 7 6.1 5.9 6.2
250 222 5.7
6
3
200 5
2 150 4
3
100
1 2
50 1
0 0 0
2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10

Source: The Market , CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
43

Key value drivers – 10-year history

Average prices 1999 - 2008


Source: The Market, CERA, Hydro, World Bank, Norges Bank

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
44

10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages

Ammonia fob Black Sea CAN cif Germany


USD/t USD/t
1,000
500
800
400
600 300
400 200

200 100

0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Urea prilled fob Black Sea DAP fob US Gulf


USD/t USD/t
1,000 1,400
1,200
800
1,000
600 800

400 600
400
200
200
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Average prices 2000 - 2009


Source: Average of international publications

IR – Date: 2010-09-14
45

Corporate targets

 Solid profitability
– CROGI over the cycle > 10% as average
 New investment profitability
– Hurdle rate: IRR real, after tax > 10%
 Relative competitiveness
– Gross Return (EBITDA/Total assets) Best quartile of peers
 Financial strength
– Long-term rating target Mid investment grade
 Expected cash return to shareholders
– Sum of dividend and buy-backs 40-45% of net income
 HSE
– Health, Safety and Environment Best quartile of the industry

IR – Date: 2010-09-14

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen