Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Jan D. Freitag
Vice President
STR
Agenda
Total US Overview
Group vs. Transient
Major Markets
Chain Scales
Forecast
www.hotelnewsnow.com
Click on “Industry Presentations”
2011 – So far, so … blah
Total US - Key Statistics
Q1 2011
% Change
• Hotels 52k
• Room Supply 432 mm 1.0%
• Room Demand 237 mm 6.7%
• Occupancy 54.9% 5.7%
• A.D.R. $99 3.1%
• RevPAR $55 9.0%
• Room Revenue $23.6 bn 10.0%
Demand Leads ADR, But Swings Get More Extreme
10
7.9%
Demand ADR
1.6%
0 -0.2%
-0.9%
-5 -4.6%
-4.7%
-6.9%
-10 -8.7%
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
$3.50
3.0
Millions
$3.00
2.5
$2.50
2.0
$2.00
1.5 $1.50
1/8/06 1/1/07 12/31/07 12/29/08 12/28/09 12/27/10
* Weekly US Room Demand vs. Average Gas Price $ / Gallon (Source: www.eia.gov)
Gas Price vs. Room Demand: Geek Speak
16
Millions
14
12
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
*US High End Hotels, Monthly Transient Demand: Jan. 2007 -March 2011
YTD ‘11 Transient ADR Well Below 2007/08
$180
$170
$160
$150
$140
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
*US High End Hotels, Monthly Transient ADR: Jan. 2007 -March 2011
YTD ‘11 Group Room Demand Picking Up!
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10
Millions
4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
*US High End Hotels, Monthly Group Demand: Jan. 2007 - March 2011
Negotiated Rates Will Take All Year To “Burn Off”
$170
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$160
$150
$140
$130
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
*US High End Hotels, Monthly Group ADR: Jan. 2007 -March 2011
Major Markets
Demand Change: Pain For All. Recovery For All.
8.7%
8.0 7.8%
7.6%
4.0
0.0
-4.0
BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF
-8.0 Top 25 less BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF
All Other Markets
-12.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
8.0
6.1%
4.0
1.0%
0.8%
0.0
-4.0
-8.0 BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF
Top 25 less BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF
-12.0 All Other Markets
-16.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Occupancy ADR
4.0
3.3 3.1
2.4 2.6
0.8
-0.3
*US Chain Scales OCC & ADR % Change: YTD March 2011
Luxury ADR Premium Increase On Pace
$130 $128
$120
$110
$104 $103
$100
14 Months
14 Mo
$96
$95
$90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
* Luxury ADR Premium Over Upper Upscale ADR, 12 MMA, 1/05 – 3/11
Forecast
- What Lies Ahead?
Total United States
Top 15 Brands – All Active Phases
March 2011
Holiday Inn Express
23,719
Hampton Inn Suites 16,083
Holiday Inn 14,081
Courtyard 12,589
Residence Inn 11,455
Fairfield Inn 10,984
La Quinta Inn &… 9,831
Hilton Garden Inn 9,612
Candlewood Suites 8,611
Springhill Suites 8,578
Staybridge Suites 8,322
Comfort Suites 6,828
Hampton Inn 6,120
TownPlace Suites 5,502
Home2 Suites 5,294
2011: The Year of The Hotel “Flasher”
Total US Summer* Outlook 2011
Actual % Change
Supply 0.8
Demand 2.5
2010
2011 2012
(actual)
2010
2011 2012
(actual)
Chain Scale
Luxury 10.1 8.2 10.7