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TEESSIDE UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

MSc Petroleum Technology

PMD4001-N

Modelling and Control of Processes

1 The construction of an empirical model involves three things:


• The data
• A set of possible models
• A rule whereby possible models are assessed using the data
(Ljung L, System Identification Theory for User, pg7)

The data
The modeller may be able to choose what kind of data is recorded to maximize model
effectiveness – ie by using a PRBS input rather than a step change and in other cases the modeller
may have to make do with data from normal operation of the system.
This will have an effect on the model in question because the normal operating system will
generally not have a large range of data. This in turn will mean that the model will give
erroneous results when the system in question goes out of its normal operating range. i.e. A
model is only as good as the data that it’s modelled from.

A set of models
In this case an empirical set of models must be chosen and this is done with a previous
knowledge of modelling. This will be the use of linear models which don’t take account of the
physical aspects of the system and are known as black box models. A gray box model would fit
the data to the model but also in part consider physical aspects and a white box model would
consider only the physical aspects (i.e. the model is calculated from physical laws such as area of
a circle; πr2)

Assessing the model


By comparing the original data output to the model output for various models the model which
performs best can be chosen

When choosing an empirical model the suitability of the data for that specific model must be
considered. The system in question must be keenly observed and then compared to the models.
The main criteria to observe are the form of the system input, output, nature of disturbances and
the final purpose of the model.
Using a model with more freedom or more parameters and complexity is not necessarily better
because the model may end up modelling noise or dynamics that aren’t present.

Some examples of dynamic models are AR, ARX, ARMAX, Box-Jenkins, OE model and transfer
function models.
Particular input/output dynamics are specifically suited to certain models. The AR model is a
model where outputs are wholly dependent upon previous outputs. This is the most simple of
dynamics models and doesn’t model inputs or disturbances.
It’s obvious from this description of an AR model that it couldn’t be used to model a simple
system with one input and out output (SISO) and if it was so used would give highly inaccurate
results.
An ARX model is the simplest model with an input and output. The reason it’s simple is that any
disturbances are not modelled separately and are instead incorporated in the model dynamics.
If disturbances are not white noise then the model will be incorrect.

It is clear that the correct model must be chosen for the correct system or else the model will be
inaccurate.
(http://zone.ni.com/devzone/cda/tut/p/id/4028)

2 The first attempt at making an ARX model was done without scaling any of the
original data. XTX and XTY were calculated for a first order model and y(t) was then
calculated by multiplying the X matrix and θ Matrix. The Sum of squared errors was
calculated to be 7.6. The model was plotted against the actual data:

A second order model was then tried using the same method. The second order model
had an increase in SSE to 118.8. The model was plotted against the original data:
It can be clearly seen that the first order model is a better estimation than the second
order model. This goes against common sense because as order increases the model
should fit the data more perfectly and SSE should decrease.

Due to this failure a new method was attempted. Both y and u values were scaled by
subtracting the original value (ie. For y, each temperature value subtracted 63.8).
Also – y(t) was calulated using y(t) = a1*y(t-1)+a2*y(t-2)....+b1*u(t-1)+b2*u(t-2)... rather
than multiplying matrices.
First, second and third order models were created but again SSE was seen to increase
with model order.

This work shows that for this system a first order model is more accurate and would
therefore be the model of choice. Unfortunately common sense would suggest that there
is some error in the method employed in the creation of these models because error
should decrease as model order increases ( Dynamics and Control of Process Systems 2004,
Sirish Shah, John F. MacGregor, pg 294).

3 A step change was modelled using both the first and second order models to
compare the two. This was done by using θ values calculated from the model and
substituting new values for u into the model to get a new y value corresponding to new u
values of 0.5 and 0.75

The first order model never reaches steady state and in fact even if the valve is held at 0.5
or 0.75 for the entire time a steady state is still not reached, though it is approached (this
is shown in the excel spreadsheet). As the first order model doesn’t reach steady state the
answers to this question shall be reached using the second order model.
a) The process takes approximately sixty minutes to reach steady state after the step
change.

b) The value of the new steady state temperature is 71.5⁰C, up from 68.9⁰C.

4. A time delay between input and output in a system is a very common thing. In
this system of opening a steam valve to regulate a distillation column tray temperature
there is obviously a time delay between input and output due to real world physics.
To compensate for this delay a simple modification to the ARX formula must be made:

y(k)=f(y(k-1),…,y(k-ny),u(k-τ-1),…,u(k-τ-nu)),

where f(·) is a nonlinear static transition function, where y(k−1),…,y(k−ny),u(k−τ−1),


…,u(k−τ−nu) are the past models outputs and inputs, τ is an input time delay and ny, nu
presents the model order.
(Input–output modelling with decomposed neuro-fuzzy ARX model, Marjan Golob, Boris
Tovornik, Neurocomputing 71 (2008) 875–884)

The ARX model can also be written in a compact way using the following notation:

where

and is the backward shift operator, defined by .

(http://www.mathworks.com/help/toolbox/ident/ref/arxestimator.html)

These are just two ways of showing how the ARX equation can be modified to
incorporate and adjustment for the delay between input and output.

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