UKelearningmarketreportby Learning Light 2009

Learning Light Limited
The UK e-learning market 2009

David Patterson, Glynn Jung and Gill Broadhead
The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

1
Contents
I Forward by Creativesheffield ...................................................................... 4
II About Learning Light ................................................................................... 5
III Acknowledgements and thanks................................................................. 9
1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 16
1.1 background to the report................................................................... 16
2. Executive Summary ................................................................................. 17
3. What is e-Learning?................................................................................... 19
3.1 e-learning - definitions .......................................................................... 19
3.1.1 e-learning components .................................................................. 19
3.1.2 e-learning, e-publishing and learning tools .................................... 21
3.2 How e-learning is flowering .................................................................. 22
4.0 Players in the UK e-Learning market .................................................... 23
4.1 “Movers and Shakers” 2007 ................................................................. 23
4.1.2 UK’s e-Learning players................................................................. 24
4.1.3 Note on UK e-learning consultancies............................................. 24
Table 1 Large companies active in UK with e-learning as a non-core
activity .................................................................................................... 24
Table 2 Companies active in the UK wholly or primarily engaged in e-
Learning.................................................................................................. 25
Table 3: Looking back to the Epic UK Marketplace survey (2007).......... 27
Table 4 Interviews and other news: ........................................................ 29
News and views on who’s doing what .................................................... 29
4.1.3. Consolidations, Mergers & Outsourcing ........................................... 30
5.0 The Survey interviews............................................................................ 33
5.1 Market Trends ...................................................................................... 33
5.1.1 Continuing growth…? .................................................................... 33
5.1.2 Signs of a Slowdown...................................................................... 34
5.1.3 Importance of the public sector...................................................... 35
5.1.4 Where is business coming from..................................................... 36
5.1.5 Where are the threats .................................................................... 36
5.2 Technology Trends............................................................................... 37
5.2.1 The impact of open source ............................................................ 37
5.2.2 Web 2.0 – learning 2.0................................................................... 38
5.2.3 Social networking and e-learning................................................... 39
5.2.4 Future technology trends ............................................................... 40
5.3 Future Industry Trends ......................................................................... 41
5.3.1 New business models .................................................................... 41
5.3.2 Industry structure – mergers, acquisitions and liquidations............ 42
5.3.3 Skill Shortages............................................................................... 43
6. 6. Trends in the market .............................................................................. 45
6.1 That was then: the Hambrecht report 2000 .......................................... 45
6.2 This is now: the 2008 CIPD survey on e-learning................................. 45
6.2.1 Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. Taylor
................................................................................................................ 46
7. Role of large corporate suppliers ............................................................... 47
8. The size of the UK market ......................................................................... 49
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8.1 A forecasting model.............................................................................. 49
8.1.1 background to the forecast ............................................................ 49
8.1.2 The Market in 2006 ........................................................................ 50
8.1.3 Adoption levels .............................................................................. 50
8.1.4 Percentage of training budgets ...................................................... 50
8.1.5 Continued growth........................................................................... 51
8.1.6 2009 doom or gloom ...................................................................... 51
8.1.7 Higher and higher .......................................................................... 52
8.1.8 Can we be confident in this forecast of continued growth? ............ 53
8.1.9 How does the UK compare with Europe ........................................ 53
8.1.10 A US perspective ....................................................................... 54
8.2 Sizing the market - summary................................................................ 54
9.0. Industry Trends ....................................................................................... 55
9.1. Trends in learning platforms – more competition and more choice.. 55
9.1.2 Moodle ........................................................................................... 55
9.1.3 Moodle Plug Ins ............................................................................. 56
9.1.4 Software as a Service (SaaS)........................................................ 56
9.2. Content – How you use content is now King ................................... 57
9.2.1 Generic content:........................................................................... 57
9.2.2 e-reference systems and Academies............................................. 57
9.3 Bespoke content – tougher price climate = more innovation ........... 58
9.4 Gaming and learning......................................................................... 59
9.5 Rapid Development – threat or opportunity ...................................... 59
9.6 Web 2.0 – learning 2.0 – Social networking and Informal learning . 60
9.7 Mobile, Handheld, Portable or…..? ................................................... 60
9.8 e-assessment ....................................................................................... 61
10.0 Drivers of growth.................................................................................... 61
10.1 Compliance 2.0 .................................................................................. 61
10.2 Lifestyle learning............................................................................... 62
10.3 The training industry gets e-learning. ................................................. 62
10.4 The ROI model can make sense and delivers much more learner
impact......................................................................................................... 63
10.4.1 The e is for environmental ........................................................... 63
10.6 e–Learning 2.0 into the Small and Medium enterprise ....................... 64
10.7 Marketing moves into the e-learning market....................................... 64
10.8. Services ........................................................................................ 64
10.8.1 Consultancy: a cottage industry? ................................................. 64
Appendices .................................................................................................... 66
Appendix A - The 2008 CIPD review of e-Learning.................................... 66
The CIPD report on e-Learning (2008) - summary ................................. 66
Appendix B – Donald H Taylor response to CIPD Report ......................... 68
Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. Taylor ...... 68
Appendix D – expert predictions for 2009 - eLearn Magazine.................... 71
Appendix E Readers’ responses to “Expert” predictions ............................ 77
Appendix F How did they do last year? Seb Schmoller reviews 2008’ expert
predictions.................................................................................................. 79

3
I Forward by Creativesheffield
Creativesheffield is pleased to be supporting the publication of this important

report. As the report demonstrates, the global market for e-learning content is
growing at a rapid rate as both large and small businesses and educational
institutions are seeking to deliver their learning in a smarter and more cost
effective way. Much of this is enabled by advances in digital and new media
applications and through the deployment of new technologies.
The digital and new media industries in the Sheffield region are growing at a
faster rate than anywhere else in the UK in terms of specialist companies and
new jobs. This is due in no small part to the significant cluster of e-learning
businesses in the city which have made Sheffield the UK centre for such
activity. The city is home to one of the largest applied e-learning services
organisations in the world; Ufi learndirect, as well as a breadth of companies
covering the full spectrum of e-learning solutions and online information
services.
Sheffield is also home to Learning Light who have become a recognised

centre of excellence in the use of e-learning and Learning Technologies and
helped to further accelerate the growth of the already substantial e-learning
sector in the city. This growth has been assisted by the arrival this year of the
first phase of the Sheffield Digital Campus, a 600,000 sq ft development in the
city centre specifically designed for digital and technology businesses. The
sector will also benefit from the Digital Region, a high profile £100m pilot
project that will be completed in 2012, to roll out next generation broadband
across Sheffield and South Yorkshire.
James Wilson
Investment Manager
Creativesheffield
T: +44 (0)114 223 2345

E: james.wilson@sheffield.gov.uk

4
II About Learning Light
Learning Light is a centre of excellence in the use of e-learning and learning

technologies in the workplace.
Our knowledge base contains over 400 papers offering insights & advice on
how to utilise e-learning & learning technologies. We have undertaken a
Systematic Literature Review of the available papers on the effective use of e-
learning, in conjunction with the University of Sheffield.
Learning Light works closely with both the University of Leeds & Sheffield, our
most recent joint publication is: “The Use of e-Learning in the Workplace: A
Systematic Literature Review” by Maggie McPherson, School of Education,
University of Leeds, Miguel Baptista Nunes, Department of Information
Studies, University of Sheffield and David Patterson, Learning Light.
Learning Light operates www.e-learningcentre.co.uk one of the leading

resources on e-learning in the UK.
Learning Light is supported by Yorkshire Forward, the regional development

agency for Yorkshire and the Humber.

5
The Authors
David Patterson
David Patterson gained 20 year's general managerial

experience, including strategy and planning, sales and
marketing and supporting change programmes in the
food distribution industry, before enrolling at the
University of Sheffield to study for a MSc in
information systems, sparking his interest in e-
learning. He has worked for Learning Light for four
years, where he provided business development advice
and investment support to e-learning and learning
technologies businesses across Yorkshire. David has
maintained a close link with the university and utilises
the network to continue his research interest in e-
learning and information systems.

6
Glynn Jung and Learning Leadership
Glynn Jung is widely known across the UK

and North America in both Learning and
Development and Technology Enabled
Learning circles. From his early days (1972)
in training at IBM’s Research Labs.
where he worked with mainframe CBT blended
with books and U-Matic videotapes, to his most
recent market research and learning strategy
projects in Europe, Middle East and North America…
he’s been around a bit.
Learning Leadership is a small organisation formed

by Glynn in 2003 after nearly 19 years with
Thomson NETg as, variously,
Head of Consulting, Head of SAP Business Unit and
finally head of special projects outside the USA.
Projects scaled from 245000 learners in 87 countries
to 20 teachers in a primary school. In 2003
Glynn started to develop new ways of achieving
improved performance and working relationships,
using technology when appropriate, with improved
diagnostics to pinpoint priorities and focus energies
in learning. Now part of a virtual network
of small organisations which Glynn has brought
together, Learning Leadership works in public,
private and third sectors, including in the fields
learning strategies, relentless change
and resilience, team-repair and managerial coaching.
Glynn is regularly commissioned by organisations
to research, report and advise on specific
learning issues and develop strategies in business,
health and the community. He also leads blended learning
development projects for commercial and non-commercial,
most recently an interactive-video programme on subconscious
bias conducting appraisals

7
Gill Broadhead
Gill Broadhead has specialised in learning & development

programme design and implementation that optimises
learning technologies, for more than 15 years. Previously as
learning and development consultant for the royal mail she
assumed a lead role in the design of core skills learning
pathways to support people development and enhance the
performance of 164,000 operational employees. The
programme was designed to meet the needs of the business
and establish a flexible workforce with career development
opportunities. In addition, her projects included the
development of an on-line regulatory compliance
programme for more than 1000 customer facing employees
to assist the transfer of knowledge and best practice into the
workplace to meet business critical timescales. Prior to this
she was training manager for BT where she was responsible
for designing people development and engagement
programmes to align to business and training need for
specific business operational units.

8
III Acknowledgements and thanks
We would wish to extend our thanks to Yorkshire Forward, Sheffield Chamber

of Commerce and Sero Consulting who have all supported Learning Light and
especially to Creativesheffield for their support and sponsorship of this report.
But, most importantly our thanks go to the following companies and

individuals we were able to interview for this research report.
Company Interviewee Web site and About

Assessment 21 Gerard http://www.assessment21.com
Lennox
Assessment21 offers a genuine 21st
century approach to assessment and
marking - taking e-assessment way
beyond multiple choice and lower learning
levels.
Aurion Learning Dr. Maureen http://www.aurionlearning.com
Murphy, MD
Aurion Learning is an award-winning
educational design company founded by
the current Managing Director, Dr.
Maureen Murphy. Aurion Learning designs
interactive and motivational online learning
programmes and learning support tools
including online continuous professional
development, (CPD), 360 degree
assessment and performance
management. Aurion Learning has a
strong track record in the public sector,
education, health and central government
as well as the private and Voluntary &
Charity sectors.
BTL Bob http://www.btl.com
Gomersall
BTL Group Ltd provides technology
solutions for e-Assessment and e-
Learning. We provide a turnkey service for
the design, scripting and production of
learning packages, including components
such as needs analysis, assessment,
portfolio kits, courseware and accreditation
tools. We provide both the on-screen
assessment content and the delivery
systems and services.

9
DESQ David Squire www.desq.co.uk
Since 1998 we have been creating

innovative and exciting digital learning
experiences. We bring the best of new
media to learning. We blend entertainment
and education, learning and play. We
make digital learning materials to support
formal education in schools and colleges
as well as informal learning experiences.
e2train Rob Caul http://www.e2train.com
Based in Cirencester (UK), we have been
delivering award-winning learning and
performance technology solutions since
1995 to an enviable portfolio of customers
across a diverse range of business sectors
that have all benefited from our experience
and expertise.e2train is a proven and
reliable supplier to both the public sector
and blue chip private sector corporations.
e2train team has had a solid track record in
delivering both off-the-shelf and bespoke
learning systems.
eOrigin Mike Mulvihill http://www.eorigen.com/
eOrigen is a leading producer of high

quality media-based training and
communication programmes. Working
collaboratively with clients we develop
exceptional solutions that entertain,
educate and, most importantly, empower
people.
We’ve found that compromise is not the

answer. After all, today’s media literate
audience can’t be expected to deal with
anything that’s not immediate and
memorable. We’ve been designing training
for many years so we understand what
makes good learning – the focus must be
the user.
People absorb information by seeing,

hearing and interacting. Video can show
how things need to be done or bring high
drama to a dull procedure. Used correctly,
rich-media will get the point across
instantly.

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Epic Tracy http://www.epic.co.uk
Capaldi-
Drewett Since 1986 we’ve developed over 5,000
hours of e-learning carefully tailored to
each client’s needs. And our passion for e-
learning design is endorsed by over 50
industry awards.
Fisc David Smith http://www.fisconline.co.uk
The FISC E-Learningonline™ platform

allows companies of any size to create,
manage and distribute online learning on
any subject matter, quickly, easily and
inexpensively.
Futurate Jonathan http://www.futurate.com
Grove
We collaborate with our clients to craft high
impact print and mission critical websites
and software; and we apply our expertise
to producing effective digital strategy,
e-Learning, usability and technical web
standards.
i-education Michael http://www.i-ed.co.uk/iamlearning.shtml
Wilkinson
i- am Learning is a CURRICULUM
ONLINE APPROVED, personal revision
and assessment system which uses
games based learning to make revision fun
and interactive.
I am Learning can be used stand alone or

will integrate with your Learning Platform,
providing ready-made curriculum linked
revision and assessment material instantly
in your VLE.
Intellego Andy Green http://www.intellego.co.uk
Intellego Group is a learning and

compliance solutions specialist. With
domain expertise across the healthcare,
retail and financial services markets,
Intellego works with organisations to solve
challenges in the following areas: 1)
Learning infrastructure 2) Performance
improvement and 3) Compliance
management. Intellego is an AIM listed
PLC headquartered in Teddington with a
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creative team based in Newcastle.
Kineo Steve http://www.kineo.com/
Rayson
We bring fresh thinking and innovation to
deliver high quality e-learning that starts
with great design and follows through to
successful delivery.
We deliver learning solutions for some of
the world's leading organisations. These
range from 20 minute rapid e-learning
modules delivered in days, to 20 hour
custom solutions; and from hosted online
learning portals to capability building with
internal teams.
We're passionate about new technology
and how it can enhance learning and
performance. We've got the design and
delivery experience to make things happen
fast. We're committed to helping our clients
succeed with their performance and
learning goals.
LINE Steve Ash http://www.line.co.uk/
Communications
We have been delivering interactive
learning and communications since 1989.
We help our clients develop their business
case for it, and then deliver everything from
design, through content development to full
technical implementation.
My Knowledge Rob Arnsten http://www.myknowledgemap.com/
Map
MyKnowledgeMap today has a wide-
ranging set of interests, covering all
aspects of learning technology. We have
worked as the lead partner on national
NHS infrastructure projects, helped to
support many of the UK's Sector Skills
Councils and National Skills Academies,
and developed complex systems for
Universities, building on their existing
infrastructures. We have run trans-national
projects, and formed development
partnerships in Eastern Europe.
Peakdean Peter Ross http://www.peakdean.co.uk/
Peakdean Interactive offers unrivalled
expertise, high levels of technical
competence and a wealth of experience in
all areas of e-learning, blended learning

12
solution development and performance
support.
Pixelearning Kevin Corti http://www.pixelearning.com/
PIXELearning is a world-leading provider

of immersive learning simulations and
'Serious Games' for organisational learning
and development, business education and
marketing communications.
PTK Training Patrick http://www.ptktraining.com
Fitzpatrick
PTK Training is a learning and
development organisation, successfully
delivering bespoke e-learning and
instructor learning solutions to both the
private and public sector.
We believe in delivering high interactive,

challenging and exciting learning. By
identifying the critical needs of your
business and the infrastructure / logistics in
place our approach enables us to achieve
significant results for you
Real Projects Scott Hewitt http://www.realprojects.co.uk/
Using our creativity and experience we

design custom e-learning modules that
benefit your learners and your
organisation. Working with your content
experts we discuss the options that are
available to create compelling and creative
e-learning solutions.
Working with your content we can help to
design and develop your e-learning
modules and deploy them quickly. If you
have existing training material such as
PowerPoint slides we can quickly and
effectively transform your content.
Safari on-line Martin http://www.safaribooksonline.com
Collinson
Today Safari Books Online offers a depth
and breadth of technical content that no
other electronic reference resource comes
close to matching. Safari Books Online has
become the trusted search for technology
information. Without question, Safari is fast
changing the way that corporate,
academic, and training organisations
13
access information.
Skillsoft Kevin Young http://www.skillsoft.com
SkillSoft is a leading provider of e-learning

and performance support solutions for
global enterprises, government, education
and small to medium-sized businesses.
SkillSoft enables business organisations to
maximise business performance through a
combination of comprehensive e-learning
content, online information resources,
flexible learning technologies and support
services.
Virtual College Bob http://www.virtual-college.co.uk
Gomersall
Founded in 1995, Virtual College has
developed into one of the UK's leading
providers of total solutions within the
e-learning arena.
Our key objective has been to help
enhance the traditional learning solution
through the careful integration of
technology.
This total solution embraces all aspects of
the learning experience and, unlike many
other e-learning providers, extends to
actual programme/qualification delivery -
resulting in a unique blended delivery
solution. The knowledge and experience
that this delivery provides helps ensure
that we strive to continually improve the
solution.
The company has developed a
comprehensive product range focused
specifically on helping businesses improve
their performance through the adoption of
new ways of learning.
Webanywhere Sean Gilligan http://www.webanywhere.co.uk
WebAnywhere Ltd has been established
for over seven years and provides
innovative website and multimedia
solutions to schools in England, Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland. As a
leading edge technology focused
company, we are always up to date with
the latest Internet trends and
developments. We are well placed to
deliver the full range of ICT, including full
14
training for your staff.
Since 2002, we have dealt with primary,
secondary, nursery and special
educational needs establishments. As well
as web design and content management
services, we offer a wide range of
additional products, such as surveys, pupil
eRegistration and Google Analytics, plus
fun, interactive technology, such as radio
podcasting and video – 'vodcasting'.
The Workshop Mark Pearce http://www.theworkshop.co.uk
We design and develop world-class,

innovative learning solutions that create
tangible business results.
Our products engage, enthuse and inspire
learners and deliver accredited
qualifications. We have the skills and
experience in-house to develop learning
solutions in all media, and are world
leaders in e-learning and accessibility
issues.
Xoolon Martin http://www.xoolon.com/
Spence
Xoolon is an online interactive sports
community bringing together schools,
pupils, clubs, associations and governing
bodies within the sporting industry. Each
school has access to their own internally
editable PE website enabling
communication and assessment around
sport and fitness.
The opinions and analysis put forward in this report are those of the authors
alone.

15
1. Introduction
1.1 background to the report

In January 2007 Learning Light commissioned a briefing paper on the
e-Learning market in the UK, “UK e-Learning Report” which we posted on our
e-Learning Centre website www.e-learningcentre.co.uk .
The Report has since become our mostly frequently visited and downloaded
resource but the rapid rate of change in our industry means we need to be
able to respond to the increasing requests for advice and information received
by Learning Light with a new, comprehensive Report.
The focus of the new report is similar to that in 2006, but we have necessarily
updated the content to reflect the changes and trends within both the industry
and the UK marketplace. We also include Appendices including the latest
CIPD survey of e-learning and pundits’ prophecies for 2009 and beyond some
comments on the accuracy (or otherwise) of earlier prophecies. We
particularly seek to offer positive suggestions for both commercial
opportunities and for how e-learning can deliver rapid ROI and performance
improvements to organisations and communities in these turbulent times.
In addition to our own experience and expertise within Learning Light we’ve
drawn on independent sources, including:
o Seb Schmoller, Bersin, Learning Leadership and other industry
watchers, ,
o BECTA, e-skills, Towards Maturity, DCKTN and The Digital Britain
2009 Strategy, industry SIGs and research bodies
o Training Outsourcing Inc., UK industry leaders and niche players)
o Game Based Learning (GBL) practitioners
An important part of the process of information gathering and interpretation

has been a series of interviews with organisations engaged in the e-learning
market, from micro-businesses developing innovative technologies to
established major service and product suppliers in the UK.
Our goal has been to provide both suppliers and purchasers with an
understanding of what’s possible, what’s available and where e-learning
services and products are going. We also comment on the convergence of
technologies and design techniques for business, entertainment, gaming,
learning and assessment. Finally, we include some analysis of public sector
procurement patterns derived from the Learning Light Market Intelligence and
Tender Information Service.

16
2. Executive Summary
This report is designed to offer an overview of what we believe is the present

state of the UK’s e-learning and learning technologies industry.
We begin by offering a brief model of what we believe is the present working

definition of what is meant by e-learning and learning technologies, and we
are indebted to Michael Allen for his definition and illustrations.
It is from this that we put forward our proposition that the UK e-learning and
learning technology industry is indeed flowering!
We spend the next sections setting out the evidence that we believe
underpins this proposition.
This report began as a simple attempt to update the report written by John
Helmer on behalf of Learning Light valuing the UK e-learning industry. It is
from this original report that our analysis begins, but one we have significantly
developed by both interviewing a number of leading players (vendors) in the
industry to ask their view of the market and by further seeking to quantify the
market size.
However, we begin by updating John Helmer’s work with “what is going on” in
the industry and draw some historical comparisons with other reports, such as
Epic’s market report.
This series of semi structured interviews were conducted over 2 months in

2009, with over 24 companies spread across the UK. The edited narrative of
the interviews is included in an appendix with the full version of the report,
and a synopsis in the short version.
The principal finding is that the UK e-learning industry remains robustly

positive in its view of the market and the prospect for continuing growth. The
interviews also sought to understand the dynamics of the industry as it saw
itself, its ability to change and adapt to new technologies and business models
and its views of the likely structure of the industry in years to come.
We have drawn on our own financial modeling, the on-going and valuable
work of John Helmer and other research made available to us to assess the
size of the market. In truth we can now offer a “tri –angulation” of what we
believe the market size to be and the likely growth potential.
The financial modeling and third party research all correlated in a robustly
positive trend of continued and significant growth for the UK e-learning
industry. The market size estimates varying between £300 million to £450
million, and growth rates forecast of between 6.7% and 8%.
17
Finally we present a set of trends, both technologies and market drivers which
we believe will underpin this growth, again based on our interviews with the
companies, and other research and opinion gathered.
Our premise being that this industry “flowering” is based not just on organic
growth as more and more companies seek to utilize e-learning and learning
technologies – though we do highlight that training companies (sometimes a
little unfairly seen as the enemy of e-learning in the UK!) and more medium
sized enterprises are adopting e-learning, but that there are other factors are
at work.
One key factor highlighted is the role of marketing departments in

commissioning learning to support customers, and secondly the adeptness
with which the UK e-learning industry is adopting and exploiting new mediums
of delivering learning is crucial to the industries growth trajectory.
This is illustrated in how the UK’s e-learning industry has adopted gaming
and immersive learning scenarios, rapid development tools and is perhaps
more expert in its adoption of Web 2.0 and Social networking than the IT
industry and is on the cusp of delivering true “portable flexible learning” – or
as we search for another cool term - m.learning 2.0!
It is the fascination of both the learning and development community and the
marketeers particularly with social networking that bodes so well for the
e-learning industry.
Despite the difficult times, resulting in undoubted downward price pressure

and cuts in training budgets and public sector projects we believe that the
UK’s e-learning industry, and its two principle hubs, Sheffield and Brighton are
set fair to weather the economic downturn. There is no doubt that companies
will come and go, just as they did in easier times. We can only reflect the
optimism and confidence, the innovation and enthusiasm and the e-learning
industries undoubted focus on delivering the right learning for the individual
and organisation that so characterised our research findings.

18
3. What is e-Learning?
What is e-learning? There are many terms and definitions applied to this
particular genre of learning. We have used e-learning and learning
technologies as our principle terms of descriptive reference.
Previous terminologies used have included “Computer Based Training” (CBT),

“Tele-learning” and still the quite widely used expression “on-line learning”.
Increasingly we see the term “Computer Enhanced Learning”, we have also
seen “Computer Mediated Learning” used as a term.
In attempting to answer this we have turned to Michael Allen and his work
“Creating Successful e-learning” (Pfeifer 2006) as a starting point.
3.1 e-learning - definitions
Allen describes or defines e-learning like this:
“The term e-learning applies to the broad range of ways computing and
communication technologies can be used for teaching and learning.”
He does add –
“Some uses are effective – magnificently so. Others are not.”
3.1.1 e-learning components
Allen then seeks to illustrate the components referred to as below:

19
Allen proceeds to offer a second definition to overcome the issues around just
simple presentation of content, and provides the following definition:
“e-learning is delivery of carefully constructed instructional events

through computing technologies.”
This Allen argues is a more useful definition as it excludes simple

communication, unless they are used in a context configured for learning.
Accordingly we present two more diagrams seeking to define and

conceptualise e-learning, firstly a slightly amended version of Allen’s to
support the use of communication and publishing of e-learning:

20
3.1.2 e-learning, e-publishing and learning tools
And secondly, in the view of the reports authors, and in the light of the
interviews undertaken with twenty plus e-learning companies we feel that
21
below we illustrate how e-learning is evolving – indeed flowering.
This model seeks to build and illustrate for the purposes of this report the
whole fragrant flower that e-learning and learning technologies is.
3.2 How e-learning is flowering
How e-learning is
flowering
(Based Michael Allen’s model)
Learning devices Learning resources

e-learning 2.0
Can all of this flowering really have happened in two years, well, below is a
22
slide Learning Light began delivering more than three years ago, developed
by our then colleague Jane Hart.
From automation toIn the

innovation
Workplace
automation
formal, CONTENT
online versions Web 1.0 instructional outsourced,
of f2f courses self-paced courses or in-house
static large
(web-based specialists
HTML organisations
training) INDIVIDUAL
CONTENT LEARNING
e-Learning 1.0 Niche specialists
e-Learning 2.0
e-Learning 2.0
SHARING new tools:
COLLABORATION blogging
wikis small/medium-
SYNDICATION SOLUTIONS sized
podcasting informal,
workflow-based, rapid e-learning, orgs
new ways of RSS
embedded learning free Web 2.0 tools
learning social networking SMEs and others
ORGANISATIONAL
Web 2.0
innovation LEARNING
Indeed 2009 saw the publication of e-learning 2.0 by Anita Rosen, with the
cover subtitle “Proven practices, Emerging technologies to Achieve real
results”.
This book reviewed the range of technologies now available.
The big question is what are the next petals to be added to the e-learning
flower!
The challenge and purpose of this report is to understand the e-learning

market and how it is flowering and what new petals will burst into bloom, will it
be learning devices and mobile learning, or will it be e-learning 2.0 and
informal learning as the tools to create learning organisations.
4.0 Players in the UK e-Learning market
4.1 “Movers and Shakers” 2007
In April 2007, following the Learning Light study, the author of that paper John
Helmer released a new report on the “Movers and Shakers” in the U.K.
e-learning industry, based on a study carried out by Epic. The Epic study
identified 157 companies providing e-learning services in the UK but research
was limited to those whose financial performance is available from Companies
23
House, 34 in total. This excluded major players like Tata, Line and Brightwave
which from our perspective made the survey of limited value, particularly since
it’s generally accepted that 8-10% of revenues nationally are generated by the
Top Ten players on any list.
The study also, understandably, tended to focus on competitors to Epic or

players in Epic’s market sectors (e.g. Defence)
John had previously offered 3 listings in the Learning Light 2007 study, which
we have updated and which appears in the tables below.
We follow the tables with an update on the fortunes of the 34 companies

which Epic studied in detail.
4.1.2 UK’s e-Learning players

In this Section we bring up to date the tables of players included in the
previous Report, viz.:
o large companies active in the UK with e-learning as a non-core activity
o companies principally engaged in e-learning as core business
o companies featured in the 2007 “Movers and Shakers” report
4.1.3 Note on UK e-learning consultancies

The majority of e-learning businesses in the UK are micro-businesses or
SMEs meaning they do not have to submit full accounts to Companies House.
This also includes UK registered trading arms of multinationals. Consultancies
in particular are typically small and often invisible to sector scrutiny because
they operate as Associates for big organisations, particularly IT companies,
training companies and outsourcing organisations.
We are also witnessing the emergence of social enterprises, CICs and not-for-
profits within the industry, helped by access to Open Source technologies.
Because there are so many tiny consultancies in the industry in the UK we

have decided that a list of their names would add little to the value of this
Report. At Learning Light we are committed, however, to supporting the
interests of this community, particularly in Yorkshire and Humberside, and
maintain and develop a comprehensive registrar of consulting organisations in
the UK.
Table 1 Large companies active in UK with e-learning as a non-core

activity
Accenture Amaze BDP Media
BSG BT Capita
Computer Software Gatlin Frost & Sullivan
Group
HP I BM ILX Group plc
Kaplan KnowledgePool Logica CMG

24
Macromedia Europe Ltd Matchett Group NIIT UK, Cognitive
Arts and Element K
Oracle Parity Pearson
Plateau Systems PPI Learning Premier IT
QA Raytheon Reed Learning plc
Rhema Group SAP UK Thales
Tribal Group Vega
Table 2 Companies active in the UK wholly or primarily engaged in e-

Learning
aardpress Information Transfer

Absolutely Training Insite Objects Interwise
Academy Internet Intellego
Academee (now part of Oliver Jenison
Wyman) Kineo
AccessPlanIT Knowledge Solutions
Atlantic Link Ltd learnDirect
Atlas Interactive Ltd LearningGuide
Attic Learning LearningMotion
Auralog Learning Pool
Aurion Learning Line
Balance Learning LM Matters Ltd
BBC Worldwide Interactive Learning LMD Learning Solutions Ltd
BdM Development m-learning
Blackboard Mohive
Bourne Training (now merged with Music Factory
RedTray) Mycourse Limited
Brainvisa MyKnowlegeMap
Bridge2Think Ltd NetDimensions Limited
Bridge-Learning Netviewer GmbH
Brightwave New Wave Learning
BTL Group Ltd Noor Informatics
BYG NuJuice
C2 Workshop October Systems
Can Studios Open Mind Ltd
Caspian Learning Outstart
CIA Training PageForward Learning
Cobent Ltd Panviva
Coggno Peakdean
ComplyWise Pixelearning Ltd
Copia (now part of Intellego) Plateau Learning Systems
Corous RedTray
Course-Source Ltd Rosetta Stone Language Learning
Cross Knowledge Safari e-Reference
Cylix Saffron
DACG Limited Sales 101
25
datango AG SanScrip
datmedia Ltd Seminar
DeltaNet International Serco learning
Desq Simulacra Media Ltd
DTV
e2train SkillGate Ltd

e4Learning Software Training Technology (STT)
Echelon Publishing Sponge UK
Edvantage Group SSR-i
Eedo Knowledgeware STAR Consulting Ltd
E-learning WMB Tata TIS
Electrovision Teknical
Element K (now subsumed in NIIT) Telematica
Ellerton Training Services Ltd Texthelp Systems Ltd
Embrace Learning The Orange Group Ltd
Engage revision The Working Manager
ENI Thirdforce (embraces former brands
Enlightenment Productions Electric Paper, AV Edge and CLM.
eOrigen Mindleaders name still retained)
Epic Time2study
EQHO Communications Ltd Traineasy Ltd
ETS Europe UK Trainer1
FISC Trax UK Ltd
Fuel Europe Tribal education services
Fullard Learning Trivantis
Futurate TTS Europe Ltd
Futuremedia Umbel (TfA Group)
GBS Corporate Training Upskill
Giunti Interactive Labs Video Arts
Global Learning Alliance VTN Technologies
Happy Computers Vuepoint
Harbinger Walkgrove
Harlequin Training Solutions Watsonia
Headlight Communications Workshop
HT2 ltd WBT Systems
i-education Webanywhere
Idigicon Webarchitects
ikonami Wired Red UK Ltd
IMC (Formerly Communication AG) Xperience
Infinity Xoolon
Infobasis Ltd Xyleme
Information Multimedia

26
Table 3: Looking back to the Epic UK Marketplace survey (2007)
The 34 companies in the Epic 2007 study; how they are faring
Company Comments
Academy Internet bought by RedTray February 2009
Adval Group defunct
Assima going strong
Atrium disappeared
Communications
Attic Learning disappeared
Easy i now formally known by name of parent company SAI
Group, compliance specialists
EBC sold to Futuremedia, who in turn were acquired by
EdvantageGroup
Enlight disappeared
Epic Bought by Huveaux Group in 2005 and sold to
entrepreneur Andrew Brode in 2008
FT Knowledge Going strong
Fuel IT acquired by LRN (compliance training specialists) and
renamed
Futuremedia 2008 acquired by EdvantageGroup from Norway
gtslearning The driving force in CompTIA e-learning for IT
industry. Going strong.
Happy Computers Continues to win awards for its e-learning and blended
learning.
Imparta Still a force to be reckoned with especially for Sales
and Marketing training
Ivy Learning (Ivy Budget end of market.
Soft)
Jenison One of the success stories of UK industry. Grown from
a budget off-the-shelf supplier to a recognised force in
the industry
KnowledgePool Now one of the largest LBPO companies in the world
learndirect Solutions Still in there, never really cracked the corporate
market but still arguably the largest supplier of level 1
and 2 training in Europe
LRI Strong player in leadership and management market
MARIS Technologies Still going strong; uses offshore production
Outstart Major player in LCMS sector
Pennant Track record in defence, nuclear and heavy industry
PTT Pretty solid player in IT training market
QuestionMark Long established online survey and assessment
software supplier
27
Redtray Still growing both organically and by acquisition
(Bourne, Academy Internet etc).
RTIX acquired by Ultimate Software in October 2006 and
brand name disappeared
RWD Technologies 21 years old, this US-led has successfully emerged
from the SAP / ERP training sector to become a major
performance management supplier, including e-
Learning
Saba US-led dominant force in big-budget HCMS market
SkillSoft Although the massive 3-5 year library deals are
declining in popularity it’s hard to fault SkillSoft’s
service levels, product focus or strategy (e.g. acquiring
Books 24 X 7 and Thomson NETg). NETg merger
pretty much faultless.
SumTotal Originally Docent & Click2Learn, then further growth
by acquisition (Pathlore 2005 and Mindsolve 2006)
Thirdforce Electric Paper, Mindleaders etc…steady growth in
revenues and now entered US market via Mindleaders
but also actively selling Mindleaders in UK
Thomson NETg gone
TPG Academy The Project Group acquired by PPI Learning in 2008
XOR Technology-led and successful across Europe in
major and online training programmes.

28
Table 4 Interviews and other news:
News and views on who’s doing what

o Academee merged with Oliver Wyman in 2009.
o Atlantic Link is aggressively forging ahead with development tools and
platforms – firmly a top ten player.
o Assessment 21 – interviewed: new launch business pioneering the
next generation of e-assessment. Attracted significant investment and
doing well.
o Aurion – interviewed: Belfast based company have carved a niche with
CPD management systems, community portals and public sector
bespoke work.
o BTL – interviewed: well established business seeing solid growth in
o e-assessment.
o Brainvisa and Harbinger represent two of the new wave Indian
companies who have swiftly and successfully cracked both UK and
USA..
o Auralog, Rosetta Stone and GlobalEnglish continue to lead the way, in
different styles, for the online language sector with Middle East and
New Europe major markets.
o Caspian Learning – doing well in the world of immersive learning
solutions, and the Thinking Worlds tool has attracted great interest.
o Cobent and ComplyWise In the general compliance technologies (now
part of BSI) are the ones most commonly met.
o CrossKnowledge’s mix of blended learning products plus academic
studies and their own Faculty seems to be a winning mix.
o DESQ - interviewed: Sheffield based pioneer of gaming and learning,
firmly believes the trajectory of e-learning will continue upward.
o e2Train - interviewed: LMS vendor continuing to win work, and
confident in the future
o e-origin – interviewed: Leading the trend back to film in learning
o Epic – consolidated and coming back strongly with some real
innovation and energy
o FISC – interviewed: with a blue chip client base and a firm focus in
compliance for financial services, FISC continues to prosper
o Futurate – interviewed: innovators extraordinaire, it is all about the
future with real insight.
o i-education– interviewed: a young business already beginning to make
a global impact
o Intellego – interviewed: Still doing well in the world of compliance and
regulation with in depth expertise in several vertical markets
o Kineo –– interviewed: a major success story, Brighton and now
Sheffield, and heading – arriving in the USA
o LINE Communications –– interviewed: very probably the UK market
leader in e-learning content, expanding into Europe
o Mezzo Film – a film maker that launched the innovative Training Pod
concept – deploying e-learning on a data stick into the NHS
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o My Knowledge Map – interviewed: making the virtual academy model
really work, and more.
o Peakdean – interviewed: long established player who produces quality
e-learning for a wide range of blue chip clients
o Pixelearning – interviewed: It looks like a breakthrough for
Pixelearning, as they continue to prosper in the US Market
o PTK training – interviewed: New start for very experienced CEO
o Real Projects – interviewed: Doing a great job in pioneering e-learning
in East Anglia. The driving force behind the Norfolk e-learning forum
o Safari on-line – interviewed: Bringing books into the 21st century
o Skillsoft – interviewed: Still a major player proving e-learning really
does work – true trail blazers, and still up there.
o Umbel – apparently prospering
o Virtual College – interviewed: Another very successful practitioner of
the virtual academy model
o Webanywhere – – interviewed: UK market leader in providing school
web sites and one of only four UK Moodle partners – going
international from Keighley
o The Working Manager active in similar areas but each a different
product
o The Workshop – interviewed: The Workshop continues to prosper on
its values of excellence and innovation, winning bigger and bigger
clients.
o Xoolon – interviewed: bringing sport and e-learning together – and it
won’t stop at just sports – life style learning leaders.
With the industry containing so many SME organisations founded and

managed by bright, creative people rather than entrepreneurs or strong
operations management it’s only reasonable to expect some will go stale or
run out of new ideas to meet new market situations.
4.1.3. Consolidations, Mergers & Outsourcing

In the run up to the publication of the 2007 Report there was the usual string
of acquisitions and mergers, as below,
o Saba completed acquisition of Centra

o Edvantage Group completed acquisitions of Kognita and FutureMedia
o Blackboard and WebCT completed merger under the Blackboard brand
o FutureMedia completed acquisition of ebc
o QA and Interquad merged to form QA-IQ, (now QA again)
o NIIT acquired Element K
o Redtray merged with Bourne Training
o Academy Internet integrated key assets Adval

30
Earlier in this Report we revisited the Epic marketplace survey to see how the
34 companies surveyed had fared. To show how the market moves on we
repeat the table from that part of the Report.
Company Comments
Academy Internet acquired by Redtray February 2009
Epic sold to entrepreneur Andrew Brode in 2008
Fuel IT acquired by LRN 2007
FutureMedia 2008 acquired by EdvantageGroup
KnowledgePool Now one of the largest LBPO companies in the world
RTIX acquired by Ultimate Software in 2006
SkillSoft acquired Thomson NETg 2007
Thirdforce acquired MindLeaders in 2007 to (a) consolidate
Thirdforce presence in USA and (b)create competitor
in UK to SkillSoft and Element K
Thomson NETg acquired by SkillSoft in 2007
TPG Academy The Project Group acquired by PPI Learning in 2008
The trend to outsource L & D continues worldwide. One problem this can
throw up for suppliers is the disconcerting experience of turning up to a client
meeting to find that the client’s HR operation has been outsourced, and that
instead of talking to their regular contact they now have to negotiate with the
outsource provider – typically a competitor or with a different service focus
and offering from the supplier.
HR, IS and logistics are typically the most outsourced functions in the
enterprise, and the consideration that e-learning involves both HR and IS
means that much heat is being generated by the idea of Learning Business
Process Outsourcing, (LBPO), which is no longer a peculiarly American
phenomenon.
In the USA LBPO is big enough to merit its own league table and industry
association (see: http://www.trainingoutsourcing.com/Index.asp) .
Several companies are making a determined play for the space in the UK,
including Accenture, IBM, QA, KnowledgePool, Capita, Logica CMG, Serco,
Cap Gemini.
This movement into managed learning is coming from both top down and
bottom-up.
Top-down - Looked at from the perspective of a large management

consulting firm the managed learning market is a subset of the HR
outsourcing market (which is itself a subset of the wider BPO market). As
clients move to outsource increasing numbers of their HR processes to
external suppliers, Learning and Development comes into the frame as a
candidate for wholesale outsourcing.

31
Bottom-up - For training and e-learning companies, a move into
managed learning arises out of an aspiration to get further up the
food chain within the organisations they supply, and to offset the
‘lumpiness’ of their training revenues by locking clients into long-
term programmes with recurring fees.
There is an argument that organisational e-learning is now too
complex a beast – what with the proliferation of learning modalities
(pod casts, wikis, blogs, virtual classroom, KM, etc. etc.) and new
ways of combining them coming on stream all the time - to be left to
mere training managers. Outside (and outsourced) help needs to be
sought.

32
5.0 The Survey interviews
In seeking to validate further our research into the market, we undertook a

series of semi-structured interviews with a wide and representative group of
e-learning and learning technology companies.
The response to the survey we conducted with industry leaders in preparing

this Report has been so positive and the outcome so productive that we plan
to repeat the exercise on a regular scheduled basis going forward.
Here we hoped to both understand the mood of the industry, and capture its
views as to current Market Trends, Technology Trends, and Future
Industry Trends.
We spoke at length to 24 companies from Brighton in the South and

Newcastle in the North, to Norwich in the east and to Belfast in the west, and
of course as you would expect to a number of companies in Sheffield – where
we believe the UK’s hub of e-learning is located.
We spoke to companies from the new and very small to the large and well
established, and those on that aspirational journey toward success
(i.e. somewhere in the middle) as we sought to build our picture from an
industry perspective.
5.1 Market Trends

We began our interviews with a series of questions around the market trends
and prospects for e-learning in these difficult economic times.
5.1.1 Continuing growth…?
our opener being:
The e-learning industry has enjoyed considerable growth in the last few
years, do you anticipate this growth to continue?”
The overall view: Looking good, with the economy driving demand…….
And that’s not all……
Learning Light Synopsis:

33
The response to this question from the twenty four companies
interviewed was one of undoubted optimism toward the future growth
potential for e-learning and learning technologies.
There is no doubt that the economy is viewed as both a challenge and

an opportunity, but many other reasons were put forward for this
optimism. Common views were that the e-learning market is still a long
way from maturity and there remains abundant growth potential. That
the ROI models that e-learning can offer are getting more and more
compelling. That contrary to expectation demand has not fallen away in
the sectors where e-learning has traditionally done well.
The growth potential was now being realized as e-learning and learning
technologies had now passed the proof of concept stage, and interest
levels were getting higher and higher
While impressed, and pleased with the overall positive nature of the
responses we sought to probe deeper and understand what potential issues
could slow demand, and to identify whether there had been changes to the
sales cycle as the economy contracts.
5.1.2 Signs of a Slowdown
Accordingly, our next two questions where:
“Are you witnessing a slowdown in demand and, if so, what factors do

you believe are causing this?”
And
“Have you noticed any changes in terms of sales cycles and starting
projects?”
The overall view: Some slowing in signing contracts and some delays
overall, but an increasingly, opportunity rich environment
Learning Light synopsis:
The companies recognised that there were a number of factors that

dampened demand in certain areas and uncertainty in the economy had
slowed some sales cycles, but the demand drivers of speed, cost saving
and overall rising interest in e-learning solutions have mitigated this.
There is some noted downward price pressure in the market, and a trend
toward in-house development using the new content tools that are
appearing on the market.
However, we believe that the interest level and opportunity pipeline is

34
mitigating any negative or downward trend at present.
5.1.3 Importance of the public sector
Next we sought to focus on the importance of the public sector:
The public sector has always been of considerable importance to the

e-learning and learning technologies industries.
We were keen to know more about patterns of public sector procurement and
specifically whether the creation of a specific public sector CPV code
(Common Procurement Vocabulary- 80420000) for OJEU procurement of
e-learning services has had an impact. This CPV was previously attributed to
training services till June 2008.
Learning Light, with its Market Intelligence and Tender Information Service
tracks public sector procurement trends closely. Our view is that usage of this
new CPV code is slow in its uptake, with public sector procurers using a wide
range of CPVs in their procurement, some seeing e-learning as a custom
software development service, and in one instance attributing a CPV relating
to ICT network infrastructure to procure social networking applications.
Accordingly our next question asked:
Have you noticed changes in public sector procurement patterns and

opportunities?
And as the second part:
Has the pattern changed now that e-learning has its own CPV?
The overall view: The public sector is very important to the industry and
the trend remains positive
“We can almost hear the buyers’ pencils being sharpened!”
At present there seems to be little evidence of a major slow down in the

uptake of e-learning by the public sector. However, we believe that
public sector expenditure will come under significant pressure.
e-learning on the one hand could be well placed to deliver savings, but
e-learning vendors will also experience greater challenges in justifying
the ROI they can offer. There is no doubt that public sector procurers
will be demanding greater and greater price reductions, and it will be
framework agreements and more competitive mini tenders that will drive
35
this cost saving agenda.! We were surprised that very few of the e-
learning vendors were aware of the newly designated CPV for e-learning
services.
5.1.4 Where is business coming from
Our next question was designed to see how well the e-learning industry is
marketing itself, and whether levels of interest are growing outside sectors
that have already adopted e-learning – i.e. will e-learning break out as has so
often been predicted, so we asked:
Is business coming from places other than expected?
The overall View: No but well Yes actually!
This provoked a mixed and almost contradictory response, with some

companies telling us that they deliver tightly focused marketing
operations specialising in specific sectors and others that work is
coming from the unexpected or usually not!
It is apparent that business is coming from differing angles, the one

most significant trend is the increasing role marketing and
communications departments are playing in using e-learning. The
second surprise is that business is still coming from sectors of industry
that has been badly hit by the recession such as automotive and
financial services
5.1.5 Where are the threats
Our final and rather “cheeky” question for the first section was designed to
sum up views toward the overall economy and introduce the next section of
the interview as we asked our interviewees about the changes in technology
in our industry.
Which is the biggest threat to your business, the economy or new

industry developments?
The overall view: We are all realistic about the economy, but it seems to
be an opportunity, as do new industry developments

36
Technology did not appear to be perceived as a major threat, the majority of
responders felt their organisation could adapt and utilise the new and
emerging technologies.
As noted in the sections above, the industry was realistic about the economy,
but the very firm view was that the recession was an opportunity more than an
issue.
Neither is perceived to have precedence over the other, both are seen as
challenges and opportunities.
5.2 Technology Trends
Having raised technology as an issue or opportunity, we were keen to get a

more detailed understanding from the companies of what will shape the
industry from a technical perspective.
We were keen to understand, for example, the impact open source and web
2.0 would have on the e-learning industry. Were these developments likely to
have an impact upon the industries revenues and structure? Or would they
prove disruptive or an opportunity for further market growth?
5.2.1 The impact of open source
Our first question was devised to open the topic and bring the much discussed
Open Source technology to the fore. Some interviewees immediately focused
on Moodle, others did not.
Responses varied depending on the type of businesses, but the picture is

mixed in its view, but confident in its ability to adapt and assimilate and
crucially confident enough to ensure its integration in pursuit of improving
learner performance:
What do you feel is the impact of open source on the e-learning

industry?
The overall view: Its nothing new, we adapt to it and adopt it where
appropriate

37
This really was the Moodle, Ning, Snagit and Coggno etc… question. In
short, it is our view that the adoption of Moodle and open source in
general will be driven around one of cost benefits analysis and
appropriateness. If companies are looking for a rapid tactical
deployment of an LMS – Moodle may well be the one. There is no doubt
that the M word stimulates some of the strongest views in the e-learning
industry. This however should alert the industry to a major change as
there are over 200 Learning Management Systems (LMS) and 75 Virtual
Learning Environments (VLE) on the market, and just the mention of one
can produce such debate!
Discussion around open source in general can be seen as slightly more

philosophical, and its impact both in the industry and on the industries clients.
Beyond Moodle there was much less controversy about the role of open
source software. The e-learning industry proves itself at being adept in
adopting and adapting all manner of new technologies
Technologies do not appear to be the issue to an industry such as this,

it is much more about creating good learning in the eyes of the
companies.
5.2.2 Web 2.0 – learning 2.0
Our next question focused on Web 2.0, an area of hype or an opportunity for
e-learning, or even what was referred to as Learning 2.0. The responses
generated a wide range of responses, with almost all seeing the importance of
web 2.0, but many offering a word of warning to temper the enthusiasm
expressed.
Do you feel web 2.0 technologies in general will grow in importance and
use in e-learning?
The overall view: Yes, Yes but use web 2.0 with a “health warning”
Learning Light synopsis
There is in our view huge demand emerging from learners (and

increasingly from their organisations) to translate what is happening in
the web 2.0 environment and translate the techniques and technologies
38
to the world of learning and development, and nowhere is this illustrated
better than in the rise of social networking.
Web 2.0 – or Learning 2.0 or whatever it is called and rebranded in future
years is now here for the long term. It will evolve and improve and
emerge in ways not yet considered by the mainstream of L&D, and will
increasingly overlap with the marketing and communications function.
The companies interviewed reflected both the excitement and interest of
Web2.0, but were quick to point out that the usage must be tempered by
one of appropriateness – hence the health warning! We however believe
that the e-learning industry is very well placed to benefit from these
trends as we drive toward the new learning organisation.
5.2.3 Social networking and e-learning
Hence our next question, where we sought to focus on the rise of social
networking in particular:
How do you anticipate social networking environments impacting upon

the e-learning industry?
The overall view: Yes again- to anticipated growth and influence, but
with that health warning
Learning Light Synopsis
Open source, web 2.0 and social networking all add greatly to both the
debate and the opportunity. While some may see the new technologies
as a threat to more conservative business models, these technologies
undoubtedly provide huge opportunities to the content development and
creative companies in the e-learning eco-system. The threat to the LMS
and VLE vendors is there, but again it appears that they too are adapting
to these developments and can take comfort in the innate and
understandable conservativism of many private sector organisations to
adopt these technologies.
In contrast it is our view that it’s the public sector – often seen as a late
comer to the e-learning industry- that is adopting the web 2.0 and social
networking applications. We believe this to be because firstly there is no
existing e-learning technology whose integration they need to consider
and secondly because the culture of sharing good practice in the
organisation is often more established.
It is our view that these technologies will offer greater choice and
greater creative opportunities to improve the learner experience – which
39
the digital native learner, generation Y learner, or millennial learners
comes to demand.
However, the industry must take care to ensure clients are not confused,
overwhelmed or exposed.
We are confident that the e-learning industry is of a level of maturity now

that it recognises that the crucial selection criteria of any learning
technologies should be their appropriateness for each specific need.
It is interesting to note that the L&D community is hugely interested in

the power of social networking, but that it is the marketing and
communications departments that are increasingly driving its adoption.
5.2.4 Future technology trends
Our final question for this section asked our interviewees to pick out the trends
they sort as likely to be important in the industry in the coming years:
What new applications of technologies e.g. e-reference, online seminars,

online coaching, e-assessment, mobile learning or serious gaming are you
seeing or becoming interested in?
And
What other technologies have you noticed being introduced and used to
deliver learning?
The overall view 1) Mobile – maybe this time, but its really about being
portable, 2) Games – going that way, keep it real and get it more real, but
the devices/consoles are a key consideration and their access is
jealously guarded by manufacturers, 3)e-assessment has arrived, 4)
don’t write off text – e-books and e-reference could be big…. 5) e-
portfolio is now firmly established 6) content is still crucial and how you
use it is king!
It is difficult to summarize the wealth of views given to what was such an

open question, but the answers illustrate one of the key trends that runs
through this industry review – the sheer creativeness and openness in
adopting technologies for learning that this industry has. Indeed we
would recommend you read the interview narrative in the long version of
this report.

40
Instead quite simply we reflect and agree with the overall industry view
as put forward above:
Mobile – maybe this time, but it’s really about being portable
Games – going that way, - but not all the way onto consoles..yet?
Devices make a difference – Nintendo DS or i-phones – cool ones are
best!
Keep it real and make it more real – film and TV quality production of
learning
e-assessment has arrived
Don’t write off text! – e-books and e-reference could be big….
e-portfolio is now firmly established and e-Passports, including
SmartCards are part of the education world
Content and instructional design are still crucial, and how content is
used is King!
It is interesting to note the still apparent disconnect between the video

games industry and the e-learning and learning technologies industry.
We make no predictions as to how this disconnect will be overcome, but
do note the disparity in size of typical e-learning developers and video
games developers. Do see our interview section with leading gaming
and learning developer Jake Habgood.
5.3 Future Industry Trends
In our third section we asked our respondents their views regarding the
structure of the UK’s e-learning and learning technologies industry.
5.3.1 New business models
Our first question, given the characteristics of the industry was:
Do you feel new business models are impacting on the industry?
The overall view: Yes (but not so easy for new entrants) – tools driven
models, content aggregation models, new models to exploit IP, rapid
development models, new relationships – partnerships and alliances
and SaaS – software as a service all feature in the future development of
the industry

41
The e-learning industry is used to change and innovation, as many of
the respondents pointed out, with new business models almost seen as
the norm. This creativity and innovation is only likely to accelerate.
The barriers to entry from a technology perspective are not high, but the
barriers from a learning perspective are.
We believe there will be a continuing trend toward collaboration and
alliances both within the industry and in partnerships with IT
Consultancies and training providers as “the blend” continues to be
more and more influential.
The industry will continue – almost relentlessly - to adopt and adapt new
technologies and techniques to deliver more effective and engaging
e-learning. It is this innovative “colonisation” of new and emergent
models that gives the industry its strength, and is responsible for
designing in further growth.
5.3.2 Industry structure – mergers, acquisitions and liquidations
In our next question we asked about the structure of the industry, we were
keen to know what the industry felt about the likelihood of takeovers and
acquisitions, given that this industry has seen quite a number, and would
there be an acceleration in this driven by the economic downturn. Likewise
would the number of new entrants to the industry slow, and the number of
liquidations increase?
Do you anticipate the industry structure changing in the next 12 months –

mergers, acquisitions, new starts and liquidations?
The overall view, and not a surprising view given the e-learning industry
make up – which is principally one of Small and Medium Enterprises,
especially in the content development sector was one of Yes we will see
consolidation as companies try rapid growth strategies, Yes – we will
see continued new starts – often driven by take-over consolidations, but
this is the norm. and Yes we will see liquidations but we will also see
lots of collaboration
We were intrigued to understand the industry structure and why this

apparent ceiling to growth, it was perhaps Mark Pearce at Workshop that
crystallized our views on this matter:
“The industry has some similarities to the design and advertising

industry, but has yet to see its “WPP” emerge.
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This is probably because e-learning professionals have a slightly
different mindset and are more passionate about delivering good
learning content than outright growth.”
The industry should be very attractive to new starts and technology

businesses seeking new markets.
However, at the content development end the market competes on

creativity and cost, with an understanding of the learning requirement of
the client often the key differentiator. It is these businesses that appear
to have difficulty in scaling.
They then use and choose the appropriate technologies. It is this that
will drive growing levels of collaboration and occasional consolidation
by acquisition as larger companies acquire niche vendors. Indeed we
may see large service providers acquiring specialist content developers.
We also noted the trend in the industry to partner beyond the industry
itself, the development of long term partnerships with IT consultancies
and with training providers was noted and highlighted by some
interviewees. We believe this evolving partnering with training
businesses to be a significant trend likely to lead to a change in the
industry structure and provide foundation for further growth. As Safari
On-line’s Collinson puts it – more alliances than acquisitions.
Other models appear to have a differing market. Can tool vendors

bypass developers and supply direct to users? What role does generic
content have to play in this market space?
Can large service providers in the LMS world supply to the more
medium sized companies or will Moodle come to dominate that market
5.3.3 Skill Shortages
Our final question was to understand the issues faced by the industry in skills
shortages and development.
Learning Light has tracked the e-learning jobs market closely in the Sheffield
city region, and 2008 saw, we believe, an almost 20% growth in job numbers
on 2007, based on our survey research.
2009 has seen a change in the pattern toward skills requirements, with
companies seeking to acquire skills on a “contractor” basis as opposed to a
full time employment basis.

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We believe this indicates a degree of caution in how the growth of the
company payroll is managed, yet reflecting the continuing demand for skilled
personnel. We have excluded the requirement for subject matter expertise
and instructional design services which is very often acquired on a contract
based procurement of services.
Consequently, while the number of vacancies in the Sheffield City Region for
e-learning professionals appears to have only slightly declined compared to
last year, the type of employment offered has switched significantly from full
time employment to contract employment.
Have you or are you experiencing skills shortages for employees or specialist
sub contractors?
The overall view: Yes, without doubt
Seventeen (85%) of our interviewees reported skills shortages when seeking

employees or specialist sub contractors.
We propose to undertake a new piece of research in the coming weeks and

months.
The skills issue appears to be quite complex and multi-faceted. Many

companies reported across the board shortages – and are “always
looking for talent” as Workshop’s Mark Pearce puts it.
The biggest single specified requirement would appear to be a shortage

in good quality Instructional Designers.
The most common theme across almost all the companies is a shortage
of experience at quite a number of levels.
A number of companies – for example Line and BTL- have developed a

“grow their own” policy.

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6. 6. Trends in the market
6.1 That was then: the Hambrecht report 2000

The Hambrecht report “Exploring e-learning: a new frontier” in 2000 defined
three supplier segments in e-learning: Technology, Content and Services.
Learning Light’s 2007 report commented on how the lines had continued to
become increasingly blurred since then, with providers branching out into
other areas driven by client need and converging technologies changing the
shape of what was possible.
6.2 This is now: the 2008 CIPD survey on e-learning

The 2008 Learning and Development survey included a special section on
e-learning. Key findings included:
o 57% of responders reported that they are using e-learning.
o 27% plan to do so over the next year
Two statements seem to command near universal support.

o 'e-learning is effective when combined with other forms of learning'
(95% support)
o 'e-learning demands a new attitude on the part of the learner' (92%
support).
In organisations using e-learning, it is likely to be offered to about 60% of the

employees, but taken up by only 30%.
In using organisations, e-learning now accounts for 12% of “total training time”
Only 7% of respondents including e-learning in their top three practices and
only 8% described it as “very effective”.
Optimism for the future of e-learning is rife. As well as asking what percentage
of training time is currently delivered through e-learning (12%) CIPD asked
what this figure would be in three years time. This produced the answer 27%.
This phenomenon ‘we’ll all get it right over the next three years’ has been
observed in previous CIPD surveys and earlier ASTD surveys.
What is striking is the inability of this sort of survey to define the whole
technology-enabled learning spectrum… formal training; formal learning;
informal learning; collaborative learning and JIT e-reference. Just as we are
finding it virtually impossible to size the market because it’s hard to find its
boundaries, so professional HRD practitioners cannot comment on learning
forms outside their remit and often their cognisance.
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Particularly interesting is Donald H Taylor’s response, below.
6.2.1 Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. Taylor
At first glance the CIPD 2008 Learning and Development survey is a mess of
contradictions on e-learning.
Yet these figures, which might smack of woolly thinking, actually tell a clear
story of changing attitudes to learning technologies. They are also part of a
fundamental change occurring within the learning and development function
itself.
The most important thing about these figures is that we can believe them.
They are not the frothy enthusiasms of vendors and early adopters; they
reflect actual learning and development practice today.
And the message is simple: for those that use it, e-learning is now simply
regarded as part of the learning mix, and practitioners are increasingly
confident with it.
If people know what they’re doing with e-learning, this explains why only 7%
considered it a ‘most effective’ practice. For them, this phrasing makes no
sense. You might as well ask whether books are an effective learning
practice. e-learning is a medium of delivery. Any effectiveness depends not on
the medium itself, but how it is used.
Six years ago, the question could have made sense, because e-learning then
implied something quite narrow. In 2002, e-learning essentially meant the
delivery of courses. In providing materials and a structure for self-study, it was
similar to its predecessor’s computer-based training (CBT) and computer-
assisted learning (CAL).
e-learning added to these the concept of central planning and tracking via the
learning management system (LMS). In 2002, e-learning for most people
meant an electronic analogy of the classroom: courses that were centrally
prepared or commissioned, with attendance and assessment data collected
by the learning and development.
In the absence of any agreed definition of e-learning, those polled for this
CIPD survey will have taken e-learning to include the much wider range of
electronically delivered learning 2008, from LMS-delivered courses to EPSS
and to the use of social networks and ….informal learning.
This broad understanding of the meaning of e-learning will explain why – in

spite of the apparent contradiction of only 7% rating it among the most
effective training practices – 47% of respondents said they used it more than
they did two years ago.
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Total training time
…the wording of (the survey) questions invites the respondent to consider the
narrow definition of e-learning. The very phrases ‘offered to’, ‘taken up’ and
‘total training time’ suggest online courses and the centralised world of the
LMS. If the survey had asked, ‘What proportion of your employees use
Google, Flickr or access an online help system, or email/IM colleagues for
assistance?’, the results would certainly have been different.
In other words, where the questions are not worded to restrict the sense of
what e-learning means, this survey shows comprehensively that in practice it
has gone through the five stages of the Gartner hype cycle and is now
resolutely past the trough of disillusionment and up on the plateau of
productivity.
Social networking and instant messaging will join tools such as email and
‘webinars’ among technologies that can be used to support learning, but can
do much more besides. They will be part of a trend taking technology-
supported learning away from page-turning on the screen to being a social
experience, and from a centralised ‘push’, to individually driven ‘pull’.
In his essay for last year’s Reflections report, Charles Jennings of Reuters
bemoaned the fact that only 56% of organisations had a written learning and
development strategy. He pointed out that it would be inconceivable for a chief
executive not to have an explicit strategy and suggested that it should be as
inconceivable for a learning and development department not to have one
either.
7. Role of large corporate suppliers

Large companies in IT, Business Consulting and Managed Services
(e.g. IBM, Accenture, and Capita) who have traditionally offered
training to their clients, have seen opportunities in e-learning and
fostered in-house operations. In some cases these have shown
rapid growth, eclipsing their traditional stand-up training operations
with those companies. Here, entrenched client relationships and the
ability to offer the scale of operations that large clients need, give an
inbuilt advantage over smaller, ‘boutique’ outfits.
The LBPO Top Twenty

Every year TrainingOutsourcing.com offers a listing of the Top 20 LBPO
companies worldwide and the Top 20 IT Training companies. Unsurprisingly
many of the same big names appear in both lists. Training Outsourcing is now
planning to release additional sector surveys including Learning Technologies.

47
The most recent Top 20 outsourcing companies list is as below. They’ve not
been ranked because of the widely differing ways they book and allocate
revenues.
The Top 20 as at June 2008 (alphabetical order)

Accenture ACS Adamant Convergys
CGS DDI Delta College Expertus
GenPhysics GeoLearning Global Knowledge IBM
Innovatia Intrepid KnowledgePool LionBridge
Logica NIIT Element K Raytheon RWD
These ‘Top 20' companies indicated that their revenues were generated
through multiple solution areas. As in previous years, the largest percentages
of revenues came from training content development (33%) and delivery
(27%) - see chart below for revenue breakdown of the 'Top 20”.
Revenue Segmentation Breakdown

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8. The size of the UK market
It has always been difficult to give an overall size to the UK e-learning market,
since companies like Accenture and IBM do not break out e-learning revenues
in their financial reporting (and in some cases outsource elements of their e-
learning to boutique providers, providing a risk of double counting). Also, a
large number of UK players are either privately owned UK companies or UK
registered companies privately owned overseas (e.g. Plateau Systems) and
revenues fall below the Companies House reporting threshold … And finally…
how do we price WIKIs, Blogs and all the other informal collaboration and
sharing tools, particularly free open source products?
One “best guess” stated in the last edition of this Report (2007) was that the
total value of the UK e-learning market was greater than £160m, but unlikely
to exceed £250m all told. Interestingly within six months of producing the
Report for Learning Light, the author John Helmer used a calculation based on
average revenues and number of identified companies in the UK to suggest a
different “best guess” of the UK market for e-learning products and services as
being between £500m and £700m, i.e. nearly 4% of private sector training
spend. But you’d have to add in about £25m for UfI learndirect….
A third approach (not based on reported or “interpreted” revenues of
suppliers) tackles this from a percentage of training budget for
industry sectors against forecast GDP for the UK. But again what are
we measuring when we talk about e-learning. Does web-delivered
Video Arts videos or DTV films equal e-learning?
8.1 A forecasting model
8.1.1 background to the forecast
As noted above, in January 2007 when our first report e-learning market
report was published, our estimate for the market varied between £160 million
and £250 million, and we believe the market was enjoying growth of over
25%.
In the time between this report and now, Learning Light has developed a
sophisticated market forecasting model, based on a series of variables,
including our Market Intelligence and Tender Information Service.
Since the June 2008 update of the CPV (Common Procurement Vocabulary)
codes, e-learning has become a recognised code in the world of government
procurement and OJEU we have been able to gain far greater incite into
public sector procurement patterns.
Our other variables we have modeled include the growth (or decline) in GDP,
49
the expenditure on training in the UK – which we believe is closely related to
company turnover and hence GDP. We have also modeled what we believe to
be the level of interest and uptake of e-learning by companies and
organisations, and the proportions of training budgets being spent on
e-learning and learning technologies.
It is in the later two categories that Learning Light in addition to its close
monitoring of public sector procurement contract awards uses its unrivalled
network of organisations and associates along with its research skills to
synthesize these key trends.
8.1.2 The Market in 2006
Accordingly on reflection (and with the benefit of our forecasting model and
information service) we believe the market in 2006 to have been worth
somewhere near to £229 million. We do not however consider that the market
grew as rapidly as we previously believed. Indeed we believe the market grew
in the order of 12% from our 2005 reverse forecast measure of £203 million.
8.1.3 Adoption levels
We believe uptake of e-learning has grown amongst organisations steadily

from the low usage levels (30% of companies) forecast in 2004 to over 57%
of organisations using e-learning in 2008 (CIPD Annual Survey 2008). And
interestingly 82% of public sector organisations using e-learning, but only 42%
of private sector organisations using e-learning.
The Learning Light model adopts a greater degree of caution with uptake
levels, we believe some 45% of organisations are using e-learning in 2008
and we project growth to 47.5% in 2009.
8.1.4 Percentage of training budgets
It is more difficult to estimate the amount of overall training budgets that are
now directed toward e-learning. CIPD research indicates 12% of training time
is devoted to e-learning – a long way from the 30% in the USA! Indeed we
have seen even higher adoption level numbers in the USA – up to 50% of
training delivered in the non education sector uses e-learning!
An analysis of a Toward Maturity survey indicates e-learning expenditure as a

percentage of overall training to be 13%. The Learning Light model uses a
slightly more conservative forecast for 2006 and 2007, with 12% in 2008 and
a forecast of 13% in 2009.
This reflects our view garnered from the industry that the UK e-learning

50
market is not mature.
8.1.5 Continued growth
Based upon our assumptions we believe the market continued to grow into
2007 and 2008, with growth rates of 13% to 13.5%, and accordingly we would
value the market in 2008 to have been worth £294 million.
Our forecast model and its assumptions are underpinned by a marked

increase in employment in the industry in Sheffield – a city with arguably the
UK’s largest eco-system of e-learning and learning technology companies.
Learning Light with its partner organisation Creativesheffield undertook a skills

and employment survey in June 2008 which indicated a 20% growth in
employment numbers in the e-learning companies surveyed in the previous
12 months.
Our ability to track public sector contracts awarded was able to identify a
number of significant contracts awarded to Sheffield based companies that
account for 35% of the growth in the market from 2007 to 2008 alone!
8.1.6 2009 doom or gloom
How big will the slowdown be? Or will this be the defining moment for
e-learning and learning technologies as companies turn to e-learning in
increasing numbers as a way to reduce training costs and even improve their
environmental credentials by traveling less for training!
The Learning Light model forecasts a 3.5% contraction of GDP, and this will
without doubt be reflected in a reduction in training budgets as companies and
organisations cut costs and reduce employee numbers.
Indications from the USA, point to an 11% reduction in overall training

expenditure from 2007 to 2008 (Training Industry report). Our model sees the
overall training expenditure decline by £200 million in line with GDP to just
over £5 billion.
Our £5 billion is principally the amount spent on training by companies and

organisations – including government departments based on the assumptions
that training represents a % of company turnover. The UK Government
spends £12 billion on adult skills (£4.5 billion on FE (Further Education) and
adult skills and £7.4 billion on HE Higher Education. Source: Leitch Report
2006.
We do however see a continued adoption of e-learning by companies – as

51
noted above to 47.5% and an increase in the percentage (of the reduced)
training budget dedicated toward e-learning to 13%, from 12.3% in 2008.
Our forecast shows the e-learning market place growth to slow by more than
50%, but stays in positive territory at a growth rate of 6.7%, and the industry
breaks the £300 million barrier with revenues of £313 million in 2009.
8.1.7 Higher and higher
If we accepted the CIPD level of uptake to be that 57% of companies now use
e-learning we could value the market at more than £370 million for the non
education market!
However, in 2009 we became aware of another research project undertaking

a similar analysis such as ourselves, and were fortunate to be able to share
findings.
This research indicated that we were perhaps a little cautious in our figures for
the UK and the market was closer to £450 million in the corporate and non
education sector and an additional £150 million in the education sector. In
addition these researchers forecast growth for the UK market at over 8%.
We accept that these forecasts are never likely to be completely accurate, and
can offer what can only be described as trends.
We believe we can now offer a valuation tri-angle made up of the work of

John Helmer, Learning Light and our research associate.
2006-7
£800
£600
£400
2009-10 projection 2 2007-8
£200 Learning Light
£0 John Helmer
Additional single forecast
2009-10 2008-9

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8.1.8 Can we be confident in this forecast of continued growth?
e-learning is and continues to be a difficult market to put boundaries around,

and in the context of the training and education market, e-learning appears to
be miniscule.
The series of interviews conducted indicate a strong belief in growth….
We do however believe that the future market for e-learning remains robust,
with interest levels in e-learning continuing to grow. Learning Light operates
the web site www.e-learningcentre.co.uk which is enjoying record numbers of
site visitors.
Enquiries to ourselves regarding e-learning continue to grow, and we still see

a significant growth of vacancies in companies in the Sheffield eco-system.
However, we do note that the vacancies have changed in recent months from
full time positions to fixed contract posts, reflecting the degree of uncertainty
in the market.
We believe the government initiatives with Train2gain will bring stimulus to the
training market, and mitigate some undoubted decline that will take place and
which will further underwrite the growth of the e-learning component of the
training market .
We note an increasing trend to promote the environmental benefits e-learning

can bring, and while this in itself is not yet a major demand driver, it will
certainly underpin the e-learning market.
8.1.9 How does the UK compare with Europe
We have made some attempt to contextualize the UK market in the overall

European market. These figures are estimates, drawn from a number of
sources.
We believe the UK e-learning market to be along with Scandinavia the most

developed markets in Europe. We believe the overall Scandinavian market to
be worth €1 billion. This would compare to the UK’s market size of between
€650 and €700 million, - which has probably declined in view of exchange rate
changes.
The Scandinavian market is forecast to grow at over 8%, a figure that could
equally be applied to the UK market, given their comparative maturity.
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The next largest market is anticipated to be the French market with growth
projected at over 15%, but off a lower base – we would estimate at between
€300 – to €350 million.
We believe that an aggregation of the UK, Scandinavia and France will

represent over 80% of the European market at present.
Data for the rest of Europe – Germany, Eastern Europe and Southern Europe
is difficult to obtain.
8.1.10 A US perspective
The latest (February 2009) Bersin research in the US market revealed that
training spend per learner fell between 2007 to2008 and is likely to fall further
in 2009. In large organisations expenditure on online learning also fell for the
first time ever and there will be continued pressure in 2009. ASTD’s recent
survey showed that over 50% of respondents are being challenged to do more
for less with their budgets.
Although there’s a glut of industry leaders and pundits around the globe willing
to offer their predictions, you’ll find that these don’t necessarily become reality.
In the appendices to this report you’ll see expert predictions (from eLearn
Magazine) on what to expect through 2009, which may or may not accurately
inform market growth estimates. Mischievously you’ll also find in Appendix D
Seb Schmoller’s review of expert predictions for 2008 and how they actually
stacked up…
8.2 Sizing the market - summary
Repeatedly during our three month research project we encountered genuine

optimism for the industry. Some respondents admitted they were surprised by
not only the volume of business they were signing up but also where the work
was coming from. A number of MDs of Companies have come back to us
during our research and said it seems like “business as usual” after a
somewhat prolonged winter break.

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9.0. Industry Trends
In this section we present a synopsis that we believe from our research to be
some of the key trends that will come to define the e-learning and learning
technologies industry as it goes forward.
9.1. Trends in learning platforms – more competition and more choice
The Learning Management System “LMS” is the most common technology

term in general use in the industry, but there’s a raft of Management Systems
and platform acronyms in use :
The letter game:
o LMS = Learning Management System, or

o LMS = Learner Management System
o LCMS = Learning Content Management System
o CMS = Course Management System (classroom and e-Learning
together)
o CMS = Competency Management System
o TMS = Training Management System (classroom only)
o VLE = Virtual Learning Environment
o MLE = Managed Learning Environments
o KMS = Knowledge Management System
o EPSS = Employee Performance Support System
This area of the market is also one of the most contested, with a wide range of
vendors competing. However, one word did raise considerable interest
amongst our interviewees – and seems to define a new category in this
market, the open source VLE: Moodle.
9.1.2 Moodle
Our view, based on our research is that Moodle and indeed other open source
VLE platforms such as Sakai will come to play an increasing role in the
marketplace.
Moodle will support tactical quick and practical launches of e-learning, and we
see an increasing number of content development providers incorporating

55
Moodle into their offer as a way of expediting the delivery of an e-learning
programme.
We are already seeing the emergence of a growing number of a Moodle “plug

ins” applications for both the corporate and education market. This can only
drive further adoption of the Moodle platform.
We believe this already crowded LMS/VLE market will benefit from what we
refer to below as “Compliance 2.0” and the growing interest in e-learning and
learning technologies in mid size corporate organisations and the medium
sized SME businesses will further drive adoption of both open source and
proprietary applications.
9.1.3 Moodle Plug Ins
A particularly interesting addition to the market is Moodle plug-ins and

wraparounds such as MOOMIS : Moodle MIS, which seems to cover off all the
known weaknesses of Moodle e.g. Communications, Competency
Management, CPD, Events Management, Groups, Performance Management
and Reports. It also offers a less clumsy interface.
From our perspective it’s quite often the simplest tools that are of
interest…NING, JING and SnagIt for example and LMS vendors and Moodle
plug in developers must take care, so as not to make their systems offerings
increasingly complicated and cumbersome.
Both Kineo and Keighley based Webanywhere (one of only four UK Moodle
partners) see strong and continuing growth for Moodle in both the education
sector, (where Moodle is being effectively deployed and integrated with school
management systems) and in the corporate market.
9.1.4 Software as a Service (SaaS)
However, we do not believe that it is outright doom and gloom for the LMS
vendors. Indeed it is our view that this market, though crowded will continue
to grow. The value proposition between open source solutions and proprietary
software will become clearer, with price as only one metric of measurement in
the true cost of ownership calculation.
Two LMS vendors FISC and e2train both report that Moodle is having little
impact upon their businesses.
LMS vendors will seek to adapt their business models by offering SaaS
deployments and deeper integration to ERP and HR systems that exist in
closed corporate worlds where open source solutions may not be viewed quite
so favorably as in the academic marketplace.

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One privately commissioned survey in January 2008 identified hosted
services (ASP and Software as a Service) as becoming an increasingly
attractive alternative to capital investment in behind-the-firewall
implementations. This is certainly the strategy being pursued by e2train.
9.2. Content – How you use content is now King
9.2.1 Generic content:

SkillSoft absorption of the former Thomson NETg appears to have
gone well and the new SkillSoft can demonstrate increased services
and support services on a genuinely global basis.
Despite taking what SkillSoft described as their only real competition
out of the market, we continue to see a number of new and
innovative competitors emerge.
There’s an opinion that there has been a gentle decline in the
perceived value of all-you-can-eat catalogue libraries, the fact that
there are new entrants into the market indicates that the value of
generic content overall remains strong.
Indeed we are seeing added value services increasingly being
offered with greater and greater levels of integration of content in to
these services, and we remain of the view that the creative use of
content, (be it generic or bespoke) will be the key differentiator.
9.2.2 e-reference systems and Academies

The net result has been the emergence of smaller libraries, in
duration, size and value, and the emergence of new categories in the
market: e-Reference systems and on-line academies.
Books 24 X 7 is undisputed leader in terms of volumes of digitised
business books for on a knowledge engine. For IT technical content
there are Safari Online’s e-Reference system and GetAbstract books
digest system.
Europe and the UK are particularly well-served in this new e-
Reference and knowledgebase sector:
The Working Manager, My Knowledge Map and Virtual College are
examples of developers pursuing the Academy model, all using an
array of competency assessment tools and federated search engine
technologies.
Other examples include the Umbel system, a configurable and
customisable supervisory and management knowledgebase. This
task-based system can be customised to reflect clients’ own
57
competency models and competence frameworks.
Finally (though we know there are more, particularly niche market
players such as Intellego) we need to mention CrossKnowledge who
seem to be bridging the e-learning/ILT/e-reference markets
successfully.
9.3 Bespoke content – tougher price climate = more innovation
Bespoke content development has in the past been the healthiest

area of UK e-learning, perhaps due to the fact that a bespoke
operation carries less upfront risk than a products business.
We have seen very strong growth from a number of companies in this field,
with several Sheffield based companies including the Workshop, Desq as well
as London and Sheffield based LINE Communications and Brighton and
Sheffield based Kineo all growing strongly.
Indeed our tracking of the Sheffield based companies saw 2008 as one of
considerable expansion in job numbers, a 20% growth in employment
numbers.
Not a mouse is moved in anger until a customer has already agreed to buy the
end result, and marketing costs can be kept fairly minimal. However, with e-
learning becoming more established within large organisations, increasing
price pressure is beginning to be seen, and a questioning of the costs involved
in continually reinventing the wheel this way.
The demand for bespoke content development we believe will continue and
get stronger and stronger. We anticipate (and indeed are seeing) that new
genres emerge using the values of TV and film production. This is true of
Belfast based Aurion Learning and Leeds based Mezzo films.
The demand for ‘realer’ and ‘realer’ and more relevant content will continue,
manifesting itself in scripted scenarios and more and more sophisticated
immersive learning scenarios and simulations.
The key defining element will be the capability of the industry to deliver good
learning design. This more than any other factor we believe will be both a
barrier to entry to the market and a potential barrier to growth.
We have also detected a change in attitude emerging amongst developers

who now seek to retain IPR to exploit products jointly developed with clients.
This we believe will grow in significance in coming months and years.
The willingness and ability and undoubted creativity of many bespoke content
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developers to adopt and adapt both rapid development tools and techniques,
as well as the web2.0 and social networking applications gives continuing
confidence in this segment of the industry.
9.4 Gaming and learning
We anticipate continued growth in the serious gaming or immersive learning

genre. Coventry based Pixelearning are having increasing success in North
America, with a growing roster of blue chip clients. Sheffield based Desq
report continued interest in the use of games in e-learning, and the arrival of
the Caspian rapid 3D authoring tool for Immersive learning all add to the
market dynamic.
It is however the demand for this learning style that will in the end drive
demand through to the industry.
We, however remain less clear as to how, or indeed if the video gaming
industry and the e-learning industry will collaborate or converge. In the full
interviews synopsis we present the views of a leading exponent of the use of
video games for learning – from the games developer’s perspective.
9.5 Rapid Development – threat or opportunity
Tools – rapid and self authoring will drive demand as well as drive down costs
and seed both issues and opportunities for the e-learning industry.
We, like many others in the industry have been impressed by the speed of
growth and expansion of Kineo, a company who built its business model
around rapid e-learning development tools.
The emergence of rapid tools that allow much greater self authoring potential
to trainers or subject matter experts we believe will have considerable impact
on the market place.
We anticipate an emergence of new business models – the North American

market has seen this, with companies such as Red Vector and Udutu
developing and utilising rapid tools (and offshore rapid development). Already
we have seen companies such as REAL Projects adopt this “tools based
development” model to some success.
It would appear logical that more and more learning can be developed by in-
house teams and following that logic we would anticipate seeing the uptake of
tools by in house learning development teams.
However, as yet we see the e-learning developers themselves utilising the

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rapid tools with considerable effect to deliver against new and evolving
demands for rapidly deployed e-learning.
Some put their faith in rapid e-learning – which promises drastically to lower the
cost and time it takes to produce bespoke e-learning, but which may involve a
readjustment of expectations difficult for some to make.
Rapid production methodology leans heavily on the Pareto Principle, or 80/20

rule – and to really make inroads into costs must require some degree of
reliance on generic materials as a starting point.
However, the pragmatic view this requires runs counter to the prevailing
culture in training departments (especially within the public sector) with many
organisations persisting in seeing their own skills issues as unique and
unprecedented.
9.6 Web 2.0 – learning 2.0 – Social networking and Informal learning
There was undoubtedly great enthusiasm among some of the companies

interviewed for the use of web2.0 and social networking, coupled with a very
clear health warning as to the appropriateness of its usage.
The key message from our interviewees was one of “appropriateness”, - the
learning requirement must be paramount, prior to the choice of technical
solution.
Web 2.0 and Social networking will without doubt find a role in the learning
and development mix, and will quite possibly go a considerable way in
supporting and delivering the “informal learning” agenda.
However, its usage and its effective integration into the overall learning and
development mix will be dependant upon the creativity, innovation and
learning design skills of the solution vendor.
We are non the less greatly taken with the concept coined by Jay Cross
(2007) in his work “Informal Learning” of “Learnscapes”.
“The emergent way of learning is more likely to involve community,

storytelling, simulation, dynamic learning portals, social network analysis,
expertise location, presence awareness, workflow integration, search
technology, help desks, spontaneity, personnel knowledge management,
mobile learning, and co-creation”. Cross (2007) p41
9.7 Mobile, Handheld, Portable or…..?

Will it be mobile learning, handheld learning or will it become portable
learning? Our research highlighted that mobile learning was finally becoming
of age, after several false starts. Until now M Learning has been one of great
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promise, but with few really good tangible examples for the corporate market.
The arrival of Adobe Flash Lite is having an impact for developers allowing
richer content to be developed. 3G mobile networks now allow improved
levels of connectivity.
The choice of platforms – from i-phones to netbooks, via Nintendo DS are all
now providing better and better portable learning devices.
The Apple impact cannot be underestimated – both the devices and the arrival
of i-tunes U will embed learning into portable devices, and be seen as cool.
The netbook is another major factor that will support the growth of portable
device learning opportunities.
Epic have successfully used the Nintendo DS to deliver specific learning

requirements.
9.8 e-assessment
Despite the anticipated arrival of e-assessment for a number of years, and
surprisingly little comment from the e-learning industry itself, we believe that
e-assessment will grow strongly in importance.
The demand drivers we believe are firmly in place, and the applications being
offered now deliver on the ROI model. Our view is that higher education will
prove receptive to the time savings and quality consistency e-assessment
tools can now offer.
We provide an insightful piece based round an interview with Assessment21’s

Gerard Lennox who provides us with a clear understanding as to why this
segment of the market is set for strong growth.
10.0 Drivers of growth
10.1 Compliance 2.0
It became quickly apparent in our interviews that interest levels for e-learning
remained strong in areas that conventionally given present economic
circumstances we would have anticipated a marked fall in demand. By this we
mean the banking and finance industry and the automotive sales industry.
Sheffield based FISC, Kineo and LINE Communications have all reported
continuing high levels of interest from the financial services sector.
However, the financial services industry in recognising a failure in regulation is

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we believe embarking upon a range of new Compliance driven learning and
training.
Many financial institutions are already LMS operators but others are not.
Secondly the content in use by many organisations is quite dated, and
suffering from the law of diminishing returns.
We foresee a significant level of demand for new and more interactive content
to deliver the softer end of compliance training as well as defining leadership
and decision issues in a learning format.
As we live in an ever increasing litigious world, compliance in health care,

health and safety, government directives such as the WEEE directive for
example will drive the need for both interactive content and the auditable
evidence of the training being delivered.
While Compliance has often been seen as one of the early drivers for the
adoption of e-learning, its importance is still too great to be written off as one
of yesterday’s driver of demand. Indeed it is our view that this market will be
significantly stimulated by recent events.
10.2 Lifestyle learning
The evidence of our research and interviews strongly indicates a growing

realisation and receptiveness toward e-learning across a widening swathe of
organisations, institutions, associations, hobby groups and loose federations
of common interest that may spring up rapidly and disappear equally rapidly.
Learning will continue to grow and grow beyond the formal organisational and
educational frameworks. Peer to Peer learning and sharing across all these
varying modes of communications and collaboration will flourish.
User or learner generated content will become more and more important. This
trend is difficult to predict and even harder to prevent, given the speed of
technical development, and the transient and promiscuous user pattern.
10.3 The training industry gets e-learning.
In addition we firmly believe that the UK training industry will embrace

e-learning to a much greater extent. Indeed we would argue that the relatively
slow adoption of e-learning and learning technologies in the UK (in
comparison to the USA) has been in part due to the reluctance of the training
industry to adopt and endorse e-learning.
We believe the training industry (in certain cases) has seen e-learning as a
threat, and some, but not all used every opportunity to discredit e-learning.

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The industry itself has been aware of this, but now firmly believes that it has
overcome the arguments first deployed against it by the more traditional
training industry.
We have noticed a much greater level of interest from training organisations in

how they can use e-learning, given the challenges of the present economic
climate.
Training budgets will increasingly come under pressure and training

organisations (in house or third party) will increasingly need to offer “more for
less”.
The culture of learning will change in organisations and the need for ‘Just in
Time’ learning will increase, leading to the disaggregation of many linear
courses into small knowledge nuggets of learning.
The rise and rise of social networking – from Facebook to Linked-in or Naymz,
via Twitter will create the opportunity for learners to request solutions to
problems from peer groups across the organisation (or indeed the world). Add
to this Blogs and micro-blogs and Wikis and other open source environments
such as Ning and the traditional training industry will be challenged.
The rise of the Play Station generation has likewise put new demands upon
both schools and employers as to the quality and means of delivery of
learning and training.
10.4 The ROI model can make sense and delivers much more learner
impact
Traditionally e-learning benefits have been promoted with ROI and the ability
to scale consistently to support global delivery as key benefits. In addition,
LMS vendors typically stress the ability to schedule and track learning and
development.
We are now seeing speed of development and deployment as a new and key
differentiator coming to the fore, as a way of measuring return on investment.
10.4.1 The e is for environmental
The environmental agenda for e-learning is at present still latent. However, an

increasing number of e-learning companies are adding environmental benefits
to the marketing mix of their offer.

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10.6 e–Learning 2.0 into the Small and Medium enterprise
Interviews uncovered trends towards medium sized businesses expressing

growing interest in e-learning and learning technologies.
Our slide presented on page 20 “from automation to innovation” illustrates

what we believe to be this trend.
It is our view that the availability of rapid e-learning tools, the emergence of
web 2.0 will support the uptake of e-learning and learning technologies in
medium sized organisations.
New pricing models – software as a service in particular will enable access to

larger applications by medium sized companies.
10.7 Marketing moves into the e-learning market
We noted several instances of e-learning commissions being led by marketing

departments in organisations. This is a trend we expect to continue and grow
in importance.
Marketing departments appear to be impressed by how e-learning companies

have grasped the use of web 2.0 technologies and social networking as
means of engagement. It is also true to note that many of the leading
e-learning players keep a foot in the marketing and communications camp as
well.
This has proven to be more than a happy co-incidence but undoubtedly this
has added to our confidence in the growth of the market, as marketing
departments seek to use e-learning to support products and services in the
market.
10.8. Services
10.8.1 Consultancy: a cottage industry?
e-Learning consultancy is something of a cottage industry in the UK,
most companies engaged exclusively in the field being micro-
businesses.
As industry watchers we have Learning Light, the e-Learning Centre,
Seb Schmoller, Jane Hart, and a handful of other quasi-equivalents to
Jay Cross, Bersin & Associates, or Brandon Hall. A standard growth
strategy for most learning technology companies, content companies
and training specialists is to offer consultancy in one form or another
and some are quite sophisticated operations. BUT many of the big
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players, including outsourcers, rely on the services of Associates from
the micro-businesses.
We have noted the growing success of LINE, the Workshop and Epic
in offering consultancy services. This is a trend we expect to continue,
and the Sheffield cluster of e-learning companies is particularly well
served by a rich eco-system of specialist consultants such as Keith
Shaw, Phil Green and others. The growth of Sero Consulting has been
particularly impressive, and has been effective in using the
consultancy eco-system made up of companies such as Psydev,
Dunelm and e-loki.
While there is real disappointment with the continued insistence by

public sector procurement to play safe by engaging major players who
can then carry all project risks, the up-side is that so many major
players act as an employment agency for the SME and micro business
sectors.

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Appendices
Appendix A - The 2008 CIPD review of e-Learning
The CIPD report on e-Learning (2008) - summary

Our 2008 Learning and Development Survey included a special section on
e-learning. This recorded steady progress in the acceptance of e-learning, but
that much remains to be done.
Key findings included:

o More than half of the respondents (57%) reported that they are using
e-learning. This is the first time that the proportion has topped 50%.
o Of those who are not using e-learning more than one quarter (27%)
plan to do so over the next year. a key part of training delivery.
o In organisations using e-learning, it is likely to be offered to about 60%
of the employees, but taken up by only 30%.
Two statements seem to command near universal support:

o 'e-learning is effective when combined with other forms of learning'
(95% support)
o 'e-learning demands a new attitude on the part of the learner' (92%
support).
Respondents to the survey were asked 'which of the following training and
development practices do you believe are most effective?' and were invited to
choose three practices from an extended list.
E-learning came next to bottom with 7% of respondents including it as one of

the three – in-house development programmes and coaching attracted 55%
and 53% respectively.
When asked 'How effective do you think e-learning is as a learning and

development intervention?' only 8% stated 'very effective' with the majority
(64%) saying that it was 'fairly effective'.
In those organisations that are using e-learning, it now accounts for about
12% of 'total training time'.
The figure recorded for the United States in 2006 by the American Society of
Training and Development (ASTD) was 30% .
Optimism for the future of e-learning is rife. As well as asking what percentage
of training time is currently delivered through e-learning (12%) we asked what
this figure would be in three years time. This produced the answer 27%. This
phenomenon ‘we’ll all get it right over the next three years’ has been observed
in previous CIPD surveys and earlier ASTD surveys.

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Appendix B – Donald H Taylor response to CIPD Report
Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. Taylor
At the beginning of the decade, there was huge interest in e-learning. Does
the interest continue, and how far has e-learning lived up to expectations so
far? Donald H. Taylor, Chair of Learning Technologies, investigates these
questions, and asks whether shifts in the learning and development
profession’s attitude to e-learning suggests that the profession itself is
changing
At first glance the CIPD 2008 Learning and Development survey is a mess of
contradictions on e-learning.
Just 7% of those polled regard it as among the most effective learning and
development practices, yet 57% of organisations use it and 27% of the
remainder plan to use it within 12 months.
While only 8% of those who use e-learning as a learning and development

intervention would rate it as ‘very effective’, 64% believe it is ‘fairly effective’.
Yet these figures, which might smack of woolly thinking, actually tell a clear
story of changing attitudes to learning technologies. They are also part of a
fundamental change occurring within the learning and development function
itself.
The most important thing about these figures is that we can believe them.
They are not the frothy enthusiasms of vendors and early adopters; they
reflect actual learning and development practice today.
And the message is simple: for those that use it, e-learning is now simply
regarded as part of the learning mix, and practitioners are increasingly
confident with it.
In this survey in 2002, 54% agreed that ‘e-learning involves the possibility of
wasting a lot of money’, a figure that six years later has dropped to 38%, with
just 14% agreeing strongly. The intelligent customer has arrived.
If people know what they’re doing with e-learning, this explains why only 7%
considered it a ‘most effective’ practice. For them, this phrasing makes no
sense. You might as well ask whether books are an effective learning
practice. E-learning is a medium of delivery. Any effectiveness depends not
on the medium itself, but how it is used. Those familiar with e-learning will
almost certainly be using it as one part of a delivery strategy that also
includes, for example, classroom delivery and book-based self-study.
Six years ago, the question could have made sense, because e-learning then
implied something quite narrow. In 2002, e-learning essentially meant the
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delivery of courses. In providing materials and a structure for self-study, it was
similar to its predecessor’s computer-based training (CBT) and computer-
assisted learning (CAL).
E-learning added to these the concept of central planning and tracking via the
learning management system (LMS). In 2002, e-learning for most people
meant an electronic analogy of the classroom: courses that were centrally
prepared or commissioned, with attendance and assessment data collected
by the learning and development.
E-learning has come a long way since then.
In the absence of any agreed definition of e-learning, those polled for this
CIPD survey will have taken e-learning to include the much wider range of
electronically delivered learning materials available in 2008, from LMS-
delivered courses to electronic performance support systems (EPSS), to the
use of social networks and Google to support informal learning.
This broad understanding of the meaning of e-learning will explain why – in

spite of the apparent contradiction of only 7% rating it among the most
effective training practices – 47% of respondents said they used it more than
they did two years ago. Of a list of 13 practices, this was the third greatest
increase.
But if it is being used widely, the survey suggests that it is not being used very
effectively.
Although 52% of those using e-learning claim it is ‘offered to’ 75–100% of

employees, 57% say that only 0–25% actually ‘take it up’. This explains why
66% of respondents estimate that less than 10% of ‘total training time’ is
delivered by e-learning.
Again, though, the wording of these questions invites the respondent to

consider the narrow definition of e-learning. The very phrases ‘offered to’,
‘taken up’ and ‘total training time’ suggest online courses and the centralised
world of the LMS. If the survey had asked, ‘What proportion of your
employees use Google, or access an online help system, or email/IM
colleagues for assistance?’, the results would certainly have been different.
In other words, where the questions are not worded to restrict the sense of
what e-learning means, this survey shows comprehensively that in practice it
has gone through the five stages of the Gartner hype cycle and is now
resolutely past the trough of disillusionment and up on the plateau of
productivity. The key statistic here: 65% of respondents strongly agree it is
more effective when used with other forms of learning. E-learning is now
simply part of the mix.
People don’t necessarily find e-learning easy (80% rightly say it requires new
skills for learning and development practitioners), but it is no longer regarded
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as revolutionary. Six years ago it excited the profession: 34% agreed with the
statement that ‘e-learning will significantly alter our training offerings’.
When this year’s survey asked for ‘the major change affecting organisational
learning and development over the next five years’, the CIPD did not even
include e-learning among the options offered and nobody mentioned it under
the catch-all answer of ‘other’.
It has taken e-learning about ten years to reach this state of maturity.
In 2008, as in every year, we can expect other learning technologies to come

to the fore, which could still be grouped under the widening banner of ‘e-
learning’. Most of them will already be familiar, and their extension into the
learning field will be part of the natural extension of what e-learning means. It
has already moved away from a centralised to a more diffuse idea of learning,
and these new technologies will continue that movement.
Social networking and instant messaging will join tools such as email and
‘webinars’ among technologies that can be used to support learning, but can
do much more besides. They will be part of a trend taking technology-
supported learning away from page-turning on the screen to being a social
experience, and from centralised ‘push’, to individually driven ‘pull’.
It is difficult to imagine, given the results of this survey in comparison with that
of 2003, that any of these tools will have the dramatic impact on perception (if
not on reality) that e-learning did in the early part of the decade.
The learning and development professional is just too savvy now. And this
acceptance of e-learning as one of many tools reflects an important change in
the learning and development function’s priorities. As noted above, when
asked to identify ‘the major change affecting organisational learning and
development over the next five years’, respondents did not answer ‘e-
learning’. The most popular answer, significantly ahead of the others, was:
‘closer integration of learning and development activity and business strategy’.
In his essay for last year’s Reflections report, Charles Jennings of Reuters
bemoaned the fact that only 56% of organisations had a written learning and
development strategy. He pointed out that it would be inconceivable for a chief
executive not to have an explicit strategy and suggested that it should be as
inconceivable for a learning and development department not to have one
either.
Implications for practitioners

1. Don’t do e-learning to tick a box. If you are one of the 57% of
organisations with a 0–25% take-up of e-learning, ask yourself what
you can do to improve this number. If you cannot, consider whether the
money could be better spent elsewhere.
2. Investigate your organisation’s current informal use of e-learning. Do
employees poll peers in other organisations via social networking
tools? How much do they use Google? Where can the learning and
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development department help in providing swifter access to well-
qualified experts, and online access to rich, sure sources of
information?
3. You are not alone. Network with your peers in other organisations to
share good practice in the implementation of learning technologies.
4. Establish how learning technologies can provide the data demanded by
your organisational learning and development strategy. If you don’t
have a strategy, write one.
Appendix D – expert predictions for 2009 - eLearn Magazine

Pressure to reduce costs. Technology … favoured over registrations in hotels
& hours in classrooms away from customers and clients. In the good old days,
an instructional designer would develop, and an instructor would deliver all
together, same time and place. When the ideas, examples, or exercises
veered off mark, or were stale, the instructor fixed it. Thus the need for
analysis (now) grows even greater. How else to anticipate what is needed,
what must be committed to memory, what can be sought at the moment of
need? How else to determine readiness & eagerness? Allison Rossett, San
Diego State University, USA
Alternative interfaces … big this year: more Wii toys hooked up to computers,
orientation-sensitive interfaces, gesture-based presentation software, even
brain-wave and body feedback games… a lot of discussion of identity, data,
and computational portability; cloud computing; and virtual machines….
calendaring and event-related services will become widely popular:…
increase in synchronous online classes, conferences, concerts, and other
Kantian (time and place based) applications. Kantian computing also
embedded into devices as well: cameras, phones, PDAs, laptops, cars, belt
buckles, keychains et al. Recommender systems will improve enough to
become actually a little bit relevant, appliances will be more connected and
data intelligence (summarisation, visualisation, and decision support) will be
huge. Stephen Downes, Researcher, National Research Council, Canada
Researchers will continue to make progress in discovering evidence-based

principles for the design of e-learning, including new applications of the
science of learning to educational games, simulations, and pedagogical
agents. Richard E. Mayer, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA
…cell phone will emerge as the learning infrastructure for the developing
world. Initially, those educational applications linked most closely to local
economic development will predominate… parents will have high interest in
ways these devices can foster their children's literacy. Countries will begin to
see the value of subsidising this type of e-learning, as opposed to more
traditional schooling. Chris Dede, Harvard University, USA
Training professionals are accustomed to being at the leading edge of

downturns in the economy but this downturn is a genuine game changer.
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Three trends are worth watching: (1) radical react mode; (2) fragmented
application of ADDIE and ID; and (3) extreme gigs for an army-of-one.
Organisations in crisis don't plan, so get used to all assignments being
reactionary and due yesterday. Processes like ADDIE & classic ID will be
used selectively or fragmented due to time and cost pressures. Downsized
training organisations & one-person consultant firms will find they need to do it
all and rely on tools, technology, and temporary alliances with other armies-of-
one to survive. Margaret Driscoll, Consultant, IBM, USA
… the emergence of new corporate-focused Virtual Learning Worlds (VLWs)

or Massively Multi-Learner Online Learning Environments (MMOLEs) (will)
nudge out interest in consumer-oriented versions of 3-D worlds that haven't
made the adaptation to corporate needs. MMOLEs will contain elements that
make them more corporate-friendly like SCORM compliance and avatar
behavior tracking….. one or two major 2-D virtual classroom vendors to
release 3-D environments…. increase in budgets for creating e-learning at the
expense of face-to-face learning and an increase in the use of social media in
corporations. The increased adoption will be modeled after the Wikipedia-type
applications of Pfizer (Pfizerpedia) & the U.S. intelligence community
(Intellipedia). Karl Kapp, Assistant Director, Institute for Interactive
Technologies Professor of Instructional Technology, Bloomsburg
University, USA
Schools will have to offer to train students to do actual jobs and they will do
this online. The first two, which I know of, to step up to the plate are ISIL in
Lima, Peru and La Salle, in Barcelona, Spain. Real education, according to
the second president of the United States, John Adams, "...is about learning to
live and learning to make a living" an idea that got lost between the late 1700s
and today. Roger Schank, John Evans Professor Emeritus of Computer
Science, Psychology, and Education, Northwestern University; CEO
Socratic Arts
Organisations will no longer be able to afford the production of sophisticated

courseware… more reliant on employee-generated content and increasingly
appreciate the potential of Web 2.0 approaches for informal, social, &
collaborative learning & knowledge sharing... also be a growing trend toward
adopting a top-down approach to using social media in organisations by
building a social media/learning strategy and implementing a platform that
integrates a number of social media tools for enterprise use. Jane Hart,
Social Media & Learning Advisor, Centre for Learning & Performance
Technologies, UK
… growing population of the world with quality, accessible, and abundant

educational opportunities—especially the rise of e-learning in both the
government and the private sector— eager to spend billions …in 2009 for the
delivery and marketing of e-learning programs that have been recognised as
essential alternative delivery methods for education & training around the
world in this economic crisis. … we find ourselves in a world … where virtual
reality puts people inside a computer-generated world and ubiquitous
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computing forces the computer to live out here in the world with people. Ugur
Demiray, Editor-In-Chief, Turkish Online Journal of Distance Education-
TOJDE, Anadolu University, Turkey
Free online courses, programmes and universities will increasingly be

discussed, debated, and ultimately enrolled in…. trend toward teaching
language online will continue to mushroom and lead to greater acceptance not
just of teaching languages in free and collaborative ways, but of entire
courses, programmes and degrees….. high schools, universities and
corporate training centres will need to adjust their policies, procedures, and
philosophies related to teaching and learning. Curt Bonk, Professor, Indiana
University, USA
The risk (to suppliers) of relying on free tools and services in learning will
become apparent as small start-ups offering such services fail and as big
suppliers switch off loss-making services or start charging for them. The Open
Educational Resources (OER) movement will strengthen, will face up to the
"cultural" challenges of winning learning providers and teachers to use OER.
Large learning providers and companies that host VLEs will make increasing
and better use of the data they have about learner behaviour, for example,
which books they borrow, which online resources they access, how long they
spend doing what. Seb Schmoller, Chief Executive of the UK's
Association for Learning Technology (ALT), UK
… the global transition from the industrial age to the network economy will kill
off much of the training and education programmes as we have known it. In its
place will arise a more natural approach to learning through collaboration and
sharing… great times ahead: fulfilling, bounteous learning unprecedented…
the journey to this promised land will be brutal and unforgiving for people and
organisations who resist change and lobby for "back to the basics." Jay
Cross, Internet Time Group LLC, USA
….. online content is becoming easier to maintain. Social interaction and

social presence tools such as discussion forums, social networking and
resource sharing, IM, & Twitter are increasingly being used to provide formal
and informal support that has been missing too long from self-paced
instruction….extremely optimistic about the convergence of "traditional"
instruction and support with technology-based instruction and support.
Patti Shank, Learning Peaks, USA
…. increased interest in open source software as well as tools and methods

that enable online collaboration. E-learning will finally break free of the
courses-online model as more people realise the business benefits of
networked informal learning. Everyone will be looking at lower cost options for
their training and development. Harold Jarche, Canada
…. opportunities for new technology-enabled educational innovations in which

the repetitive routine lecturing, administrative and related repetitive tasks are
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replaced with e-learning options, and the teachers—though fewer in number—
will have more opportunities to serve as student mentors…. combination of
personal mentoring plus tailored e-learning environments for students could
usher in an age of personalised learning analogous to the movement toward
personalised health care. Richard C. Larson, Founder & Director, MIT
LINC—Learning International Networks Consortium, USA
I hope for greater government support for e-learning around the world with
mentoring for the less privileged communities. Yehudit Judy Dori, Technion,
Israel Institute of Technology, Israel, and Visiting Professor,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
The ordinary: Mobile will emerge, not as a major upheaval, but quietly
infiltrating our learning experiences … more use of games as a powerful
learning opportunity and tools to make it easier to develop. Social networking
will become the 'go to' option to drive performance improvements.
The extraordinary: we'll start realising the power of consistent tagging & being
able to meta-process content to do smart things on our behalf. We'll start
seeing cloud-hosting as a new vehicle for learning services.
Clark Quinn, Quinnovation, USA
E-learning could enable campuses to fulfill their obligation to serve the

incoming tidal wave (of unemployed learners) by expanding the capacity of
their pipelines. It may mean focusing on delivering good product to the
customer efficiently and trimming administrative salaries ,hiring more faculty,
and deploying innovative technology. David Porush, CEO, MentorNet, USA
The parallel requirements of thrift and quality—two values traditionally seen at

opposite ends of the continuum—will combine to drive a more scalable model
for online "eWorking." Thrift and quality are both needed for online support to
be a scalable and acceptable replacement for face-to-face training. "Learning"
as a discrete activity will take a back seat to the contextual tagging &
appearance of appropriate knowledge chunks in support of specific tasks in
real time. These tagged "coherent chunks" will be semantically integrated with
an organisation's tacit knowledge to form a dynamic user-driven package
combining both vetted and open source (contributed, shared) content, one
small package at a time as needed. Jonathon Levy, President & Co-
founder, LeveragePoint Innovations, Inc.
Instructional designers ….will increasingly use newer electronic

communication tools such as wikis and social networks as well as older tools
such as listservs, discussion forums and blogs to cultivate learning
communities… Whether tethered to distinct courses, as is now common in
higher education, or as ongoing communities of practice, the challenge is to
create structures and activities that generate informal content—such as
stories from the field—in support of learning, training, or performance goals.
Peter J. Fadde, Assistant Professor of Instructional Technology & Co-
coordinator of Center for Interactive Learning Research (CILR), Southern
Illinois University, USA
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Education and training via e-learning (increasingly enhanced by the
availability of cloud computing) will grow. Cloud computing will be the
dominating factor for e-learning practices, as it allows for cost-effective,
efficient, and an environmentally friendly form of educational and training
opportunities. …. individuals with specific expertise will be able to offer their
unique professional development services throughout the world at a much
more affordable cost than traditional academic and training institutions.
Badrul H. Khan, Founder & President, McWeadon.com, USA
…. investing in learning will make or break companies and organisations….

evolving from an industrial age into a knowledge age, so content will become
key in 2009. Social media use will increase because it saves money as it
keeps knowledge in a central place (quick retrievability, international
access,…). Educational policies will enable educational institutions to come to
terms with new learning technologies and not banish them bluntly. Mobile
learning will grow, especially in developing countries, as landlines are skipped
in those regions. Inge de Waard, eLearning advisor, Ignatia Webs,
Belgium
"The Year of Implementing 2.0." Previous years spent getting our industry to
see new Web technologies as having powerful learning applications. My
advice to the e-learning community: pay close attention to the culture in which
you are implementing. Ignoring the impact on culture will be the Achilles' heel
of e-learning implementations. Brent Schlenker, New Media & Emerging
Technologies Analyst, The eLearning Guild, USA
Learning professionals start to move beyond using Web 2.0 only for "rogue,"
informal learning projects and start making proactive plans for how to apply
emerging technologies as part of organisation-wide learning strategy. In a
recent Chapman Alliance survey, 39 percent of learning professionals say
they don't use Web 2.0 tools at all; 41 percent say they use them for "rogue"
projects (under the radar screen); only 20 percent indicate they have a plan
for using them on a regular basis for learning. Early adopters such as Sun
Microsystems and the Peace Corp have made changes that move Web 2.0
tools to the front-end of the learning path, while still using structured learning
(LMS and courseware) as critical components of their learning platforms.
Bryan Chapman, Chief Learning Strategist & Industry Analyst, Chapman
Alliance, USA
…. IT has proven a prominent candidate for cost reductions in times of

uncertainty. This creates business opportunities for the wider adoption of open
source, free, and user-generated technologies and content for e-learning.
Organisations will give special attention to open source during this year. The
public sector in mature economies will increase its share of e-learning
technologies, content and services in order to retain economic growth in the
corresponding sector. …. companies will intensify their competition over public
sector e-learning projects. … new synergies shall emerge between the
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traditional public sector IT providers and e-Learning related companies. Web
2.0 tools will continue to thrive and will be used to facilitate semantic tagging
and annotation in already existing content, making it possible to incorporate
such content in educational curricula, as well as in cultural and scientific digital
resources libraries. Spiros Borotis and Angeliki Poulymenakou, Athens
University of Economics & Business, Greece
Learning professionals' fears of obsolescence, expectations of connected

employees and demands for quicker solutions will drive the rest of us to
increasingly abandon traditional instructional design in favor of
experimentation—creating messy, loosely structured courses supplemented
with low-cost social software & old-school support tools like job aids.
Employees, craving personalisation, will "go rogue" using tools and creating
content that best suit their needs—whether supported by the organisation or
not. In order for corporate learning management systems and talent
management systems to thrive, they too will "go rogue" by putting on their
invisibility cloaks and becoming a suite of widget-like, integrated, mashed-up
applications existing inside and outside the firewall. Janet Clarey, Brandon
Hall Research, USA
I have been exploring frameworks during 2008 that give designers and
developers the ability to create applications that can reside both online and on
desktops; a capability that is quite frankly a little overwhelming when one
thinks in terms of interoperability. The full impact of this implementation can be
realised when we consider how the array of cloud applications can be
leveraged irrespective of time, place, connectivity, device, etc. This is the level
of interconnectivity that will usher in a new paradigm in online learning. Phil
Ice, Director of Course Design, Research & Development, American
Public University System, USA
There are three reasons why e-learning will continue to grow in 2009: (1) The
economy …more companies will be attempting to achieve cost savings using
e-learning technologies. (2) As students attempt to make better use of their
time and money, they will continue to avail themselves of e-learning
opportunities. (3) companies trying to establish a reputation for being eco-
friendly, will use e-learning as part of their green initiatives. Matt Bovell, Vell
Group, USA
….a time when more money is spent on training. The reasons are: (1) Good
companies (particularly in the financial sector) use training as part of an exit
package. … as people are released, budgets are provided for the release
packages and some of this is spent on training. (2) Individuals want to
distinguish themselves from the market. This means they have to spend
money on training to provide that differentiation. Many training companies see
this time as challenging, but not a time to expect a large decrease in training
revenue. Peter Parker, Owner, EPCoT Systems Ltd and Management
Consulting Consultant, UK

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Appendix E Readers’ responses to “Expert” predictions
From a number of Universities and the following:
Accenture Education
VET
EscP Consulting
Servitium
James Cook University
International Computer Science Institute
Internet Time Group
International Islamic University Islamabad
. …..some key assumptions that are probably wrong.

1. Open source is not, actually, free. Someone has to build it, someone has to
maintain it. Open source is simply transferring an up front and usually meagre
licence fee for a long term highly specialised labour cost, which in many cases
ends up creating situations where organisations are completely hamstrung by
their IT department/gurus. 2. Consumers will probably not get increasingly
sophisticated in building their own training…. people are losing essential
creative skills, basic historic and heuristic abilities… to even reach them,
e-learning needs to become more like movies or television shows, or for that
matter facebook apps… pop culture is the actual language people are
increasingly speaking. E-learning will have to be "sold" to people and will
compete directly with the latest movies, hit TV series, and the swarm of
competing social networks, both general and highly specific (a la ning.com)
So, the future of e-learning is, the courses that engage (shock etc) and
entertain first, then educate later, will be the only ones to be efficacious.
2. E-learning is poised to grow because of lowered costs, increased

awareness of potential for incorporating new technologies in enhancing
educational content, and networking advances already available. The primary
reason is the availability of the infrastructure worldwide at reduced costs.
3. ….. we will see a shift towards web-based managed services provid(ing)

recording, transmission, storage, and content management in one site…
might even contain experimental media analytics approaches for automatic
indexing, etc...
4. ….Adoption of Learning 2.0 approaches will start in earnest in the second

half of the year. LPO or Learning Process Outsourcing will gain momentum in
2009. The use of the mobile as a learning platform shall see renewed interest
- … The use of virtual worlds for learning will acquire more importance - if
things are right, it should mark the beginning of the end for traditional virtual
classrooms. Games and simulations will see an increased adoption.
5. If… the online learning is authentic, engaging, media rich with high levels of
online facilitator support, the learning experiences can easily eclipse that of
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the classroom. Following this approach makes online learning just as
expensive as face-to-face although the scalability is better than the traditional
approach. Web 2.0 and virtual environments will bring outstanding
opportunities for formal and informal learning experiences, but will not save
organisations substantially with costs.
6. … year for companies to reuse content that they have previously created by
starting to utilise EPSS solutions that can provide this information to users at
the moment of need. Providing immediate assistance to enable individuals to
accurately perform a task utilising a combination of resources from a single
point of initiation. We face a credit crunch and a knowledge crunch but if we
utilise tools effectively we can ensure that the knowledge captured by SME's
is shared at the time it is needed
7. ….. a year where learning is moved more directly into the workflow and out
of the classroom….. learning at “the moment of need”. Ubiquitous and less-
expensive technology, social networking, peer-to-peer collaboration and user
generated content are among the contributors to the increasing reality of
workflow learning. Add ….. continuous pressures on budgets, the requirement
to show business value for training spend (Return on Learning), the predicted
frequent job changing of the new generation of employees - you have a
training business that will push more learning to the actual workplace and
strive to embed learning into tasks. I see this as going beyond traditional
performance support and into something much richer, much more
customisable, and much more personal... 2009 won’t see the reality of this,
but will move us to this type of ideal.
8. ….. we are nearing the do-or-die point for those classroom trainers who
have been resisting e-learning. Organisations (will) take a hard look at travel
and other costs associated with traditional classroom training, and based on
cost (rather than quality) will increasingly shift old business to new delivery
methods. While I welcome the move to increased use of e-learning (as I never
did understand how the classroom got to be held in such exalted esteem), this
isn’t necessarily good. It breeds the “convert” (rather than transform)-a-
classroom-course-to-online-mentality. … a shift toward buying or building
whatever is the cheapest instruction, and away from thoughtful instructional
design. …. we will see increasing understanding of evidence-based practice
but worry that it will be ignored in favour of easier, crank ‘em out approaches.
…as much a hope as a prediction: the increasing use of social media may
create the perfect storm for learners to start taking charge of training offerings
and let-me-get-it-myself content.

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Appendix F How did they do last year? Seb Schmoller reviews 2008’
expert predictions
Lisa Neal Gualtieri, Ph.D., Editor-in-Chief, eLearn Magazine, and Blog on

education.
Predicted: Better prioritisation will lead to more purposeful activities, such as
social networking to make meaningful connections as opposed to
demonstrating popularity. Less-democratic processes will lead to a clearer
distinction between expert-generated knowledge and the overwhelming
quantity of information available everyplace, making it easier to discern
information quality. Ultimately, time is one of our most valuable resources, and
I am hopeful that in 2008 it will be easier to learn, as well as to create and
locate high-quality learning content.
Grade: B
Social networking came into its own in 2008, raising millions of dollars for
social and political causes. And we saw attempts, at least, to popularise 'less
democratic' processes in the writings of Andrew Keen, the growth of
Citizendium and, of course, the Britannica Blog. But none of these made it
easier to discern information quality, and it didn't become appreciably easier
to learn or locate high quality content.
Richard E. Mayer, University of California, Santa Barbara, US. .

Predicted: When considering innovations in e-learning for 2008, it is tempting
to focus on advances in technology—such as the use of games, virtual reality,
and pedagogical agents. However, the most important innovations in
e-learning will involve advances in our understanding of how to design
e-learning environments that help people learn—such as how to design
serious games, VR environments, and online agents that promote appropriate
cognitive processing during learning. Basic research on learning and
instruction will provide new guidance for instructional design, including which
instructional features promote which kinds of learning for which learners.
Grade: D
Basic research did occur in 2008, as it does every year, but it is far less clear
that we saw any particular advance in our understanding of how to design
e-learning environments (unless you consider practical work such as CCK08
or Jokadia or Wikiducator). Looking up "Basic research on learning and
instruction will provide new guidance for instructional design" on Google tells
us the current state of affairs: an old ITForum paper on information age
learning, Gagne's nine steps, and a 2005 paper on ISD. So generally a
prediction demands specific results, and this just did not happen in 2008.
Stephen Downes, Researcher, National Research Council Canada.

Predicted: The "middle path"—proprietary lock-in services, like Vista, iTunes,
Facebook, and Second Life, will be abandoned for more open commercial
alternatives rather than free and open source software and content. "Personal
networks" will be created by individuals to manage and share their contacts
and information sources; people will "peer" into each others' networks or
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subscribe to filtered versions of each others' network feeds. Digital devices will
be synched using online services that will offer a publishing option for "live
updating." Finally, open academic publishing will have its strongest year.
Many government agencies will require that funded materials be made openly
accessible. Useful libraries and indices of open academic content will appear,
pushing commercial providers to offer some free content just to stay in the
game.
Grade: C
While people avoided Vista like the plague, nobody was abandoning iTunes,
Facebook or Second Life (though, in fairness, the criticisms did begin to
mount). Personal networks were created but, for the most part, were not used
to create filtered feeds. Devices were synched, but mostly were used to make
phone calls, listen to music and download apps from an app store. The
number of Open Access mandates increased, commercial publishers leaned
toward free, but useful indices did not emerge (though ticTOCs, released
December 20, is a start).
Saul Carliner, Associate Professor, Graduate Program in Educational

Technology, Concordia University, Canada. .
Predicted: I see these trends emerging: (1) continued integration of e-learning
into the broader, everyday context of learning; (2) increasing interest in
informal learning (and, as seen through ebbs of interest in performance
support and workflow training, only limited incremental practical
developments); and (3) a somewhat increased interest in digital video for
learning as a side benefit of both the early 2009 transition from analog TV to
HDTV in the U.S. and the hi-def DVD format-war seemingly being won by
Sony's Blu-Ray technology.
Grade: C+
This prediction is essentially a projection of three existing trends, none of
which demonstrated any particular strength, coupled with a known future
event (the conversion to HD) and the projection of a very likely one (the win by
Blu-Ray). The best part of the prediction is the observation that the increased
interest in performance support and workflow learning would result in only
limited practical developments.
Jay Cross, CEO, Internet Time Group, USA

Predicted: The suffix "2.0" will be appended to almost everything. Get ready
for LMS 2.0, Performance 2.0, and even Google Search 2.0. But be careful
when you get to Web 3.0, Third Life, and the other 3.0s. E-learning,
knowledge management, corporate communications, and talent management
will continue to converge. Some companies will mash them together and put it
all under a CPO (Chief People Officer.) Finally, hierarchies will crumble as
executives see the speed at which Web-savvy new hires penetrate silos, talk
directly with customers, and get things done.
Grade: D
Yes, we got LMS 2.0, Performance 2.o and Search 2.0 - all in 2007 or earlier.
No credit for predicting past events. Yes, we saw a convergence of e-learning,
knowledge management, corporate communications, and talent management
- in, for example, competences and skills databases. Yes, we saw the Chief
80
People Officer. At Wal-Mart. In 2004. A fad that didn't become a trend. But
most of all, hierarchies didn't crumble in 2008 - though just about everything
else did.
Michael Feldstein, author, e-Literate weblog, USA

Predicted: This year we will see universities begin to provide institutional
support for Facebook and other Web 2.0 tools, not as replacements for the
LMS but as adjuncts to them. Also, 2008 will be a blockbuster year for the
participation of young people in the United States elections, thanks in part to
the use of Web 2.0 sites to educate them on the issues and to mobilise them.
Blackboard will show measureable market-share loss for the first time. All
LMS vendors will benefit, but Moodle and Sakai will benefit disproportionately.
Grade: A
Detailed and specific predictions, all of which came true. The Open University,
for example, was one of many institutions to develop a Facebook application.
All LMS vendors adapted web 2.0 tools. Young people were a dominant
influence on the U.S. election, sweeping established candidates and pitting a
choice between 'change' and 'maverick'. Blackboard did lose market share,
with Moodle benefiting. Sakai, meanwhile, maintains only a sliver of the
market.
Carol Barnum, Director of the Usability Center and Professor of

Information Design, Southern Polytechnic State University, USA
Predicted: The WOW factor is upon us. A recent two-part story on NPR
reported that one in five students is now taking courses via distance learning.
With so many students learning online, more attention needs to be paid to the
question of usability, particularly to understanding the user's experience. A
few years ago, there was little mention of usability in the same conversation
as e-learning. Now it comes up, even if the meaning is in the eye of the
beholder. But, here's an interesting point, which could signal convergence:
U.S. News and World Report 2008 Best Careers issue puts "usability/user
experience specialist" on its list of top careers with bright futures. With the
growing interest in e-learning and the growing prospects for usability
specialists, there is indeed optimism that the two spheres will not only overlap
but merge.
Grade: D
We saw a video on YouTube and a paper at E-Learn but no significant up tick
in the importance of usability in online learning and certainly no sign of the two
spheres merging. And the U.S. news and World Report Chart? Usability
specialist is still on it, but with only a 'B' for job prospects and on the bubble.
Mark Notess, Indiana University, Very There Consulting, and member of

eLearn Magazine's Editorial Advisory Board, USA
Predicted: 2008 will be a banner year for distance learning enrolments.
Economic and geo-political instabilities will lead more people to seek new
employment credentials. The steep growth of baby boomer "first retirements"
will also fuel the trend, as people in their 60s look for second careers or life
enrichment. The distance learning build-out of the past several years will
81
come into its own, but some of the persistent learner-experience issues will
contribute to continuing high attrition. These issues will generate new
research and experimentation, resulting (eventually) in major improvements to
both program management and technology platforms.
Grade: B-
Bonus marks for predicting economic instabilities (geo-political instabilities are
a given). As for distance enrollments, everything I could find (such as this
article and reports such as this and this) showed that while enrolments were
up, they were not dramatically up. The rest of the prediction was too vague to
evaluate. What does it mean to say that a build-out ' will come into its own"?
And while there may have been "persistent learner-experience issues" but we
don't know what they were, and there was no indication that attrition was more
or less an issue this year over previous years.
Karl Kapp, Assistant Director, Institute for Interactive Technologies and

Professor of Instructional Technology, Bloomsburg University, USA
Predicted: Content within corporations and universities is going to become
more and more disaggregated and learner created. Truly valuable content will
be found as short videos on YouTube, entries on blogs, or a favourite page on
a wiki, none will be housed in a Learning Management System. In fact, I
predict a corporate version of YouTube will emerge just as the academic
version, TeacherTube previously emerged. Formalised "instructional design"
will begin to look more like "instructional assembly," in that what is traditionally
thought of as a course will really be the efforts of an instructional designer to
assemble disaggregated pieces of related content into a coherent flow for
novice learners or learners who are not comfortable with assembling the
content themselves for whatever reason.
Grade: B-
Content did become more disaggregated and learner created, continuing a
trend that has been evident for several years. Penalty for non-falsifiability: if
valuable content were housed on a learning management system, this would
not be evident to the wider internet. No corporate version of YouTube
emerged. 'Instructional assembly' did not emerge as a wide practice, maybe in
a few years.
Angeliki Poulymenakou, Assistant Professor in Information Systems;

and Spiros Borotis, Researcher, both at Athens University of Economics
and Business, Greece
Predicted: The proliferation of e-learning 2.0 will create new challenges for the
quality of e-learning content, i.e. the need to create meaningful support
structures to assist learners navigating through and evaluating the plethora of
new user-created forms of learning resources. Moreover, emerging online
social communities, e.g. Facebook and MySpace, will provide new and
alternative ways of rapid e-learning through various applications and groups.
Regarding the use of e-learning in Europe, an emerging field concerns the
support for contemporary employment arrangements like flexicurity, as well as
for ensuring the provision of equal opportunities.
Grade: C
Quality continued to be a challenge for e-learning content in new media, but
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no new challenges emerged. While support systems for learners would be
useful, the need for them did not grow appreciably in 2008, and no new
systems were created (it's interesting that in 2008 user-created resources
were largely ignored by most commentators). New facebook applications and
groups supporting learning were created, but not at any increased pace from
preceding years. Following from a 2006 report, Europe did establish a
commission on Flexicurity, but otherwise discussion of the concept seems to
have slowed in 2008.
Jane Hart, Head, Centre for Learning & Performance Technologies, UK

Predicted: Open source and other free tools will continue to dominate the
e-learning market, but these will be used to create simple informational types
of e-learning rather than complex instructional solutions. Here are some tools
which I think will do well, or even better, in 2008: Google Docs (now that it has
embeddable presentation functionality), Slideshare (with narrated
presentations) will go from strength to strength, as will VoiceThread. YouTube
and other video sites, including those that specialise in instructional videos
like TeacherTube, as well as aggregators like SuTree, will dominate. Tools
like Gcast and Gabcast will make podcasting even easier.
Grade: B-
While open source and free tools were important, it is hard to say that they
"dominated" the e-learning market - not while commercial systems such as
Blackboard and Desire2Learn are still viable, not while content creation tools
like Camtasia and conferencing tools like Elluminate still dominate their
sectors. Google Docs didn't enjoy a good year, though it remained popular.
Slideshare remained strong, but has slipped a bit. VoiceThread failed,
languishing at 23 on Hart's list. TeacherTube, as noted, has been dropping.
SuTree, Gcast and Gabcast/ Nowhere to be found.
Prof. James Hendler, Tetherless World Constellation Chair, Computer

Science Dept., Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, USA
Predicted: The Semantic Web is beginning to spread. It's already being used
underneath a few popular Web sites, and there are a large number of start-
ups springing up in the area. My prediction for the coming year is that users
will start noticing more Web sites that seem to offer more views of more data
and that they will be able to make more of their preferences known to
applications. Within a couple of years, this will become expected of
educational systems, especially library systems, and educational Web site
providers will need to start learning more about this technology.
Grade: D
Not to put too fine a point on it, but predictions that the semantic web will
spread have been around for years. And for years, that spread simply hasn't
been happening. Same in 2008, which was the year of Ajax and the mashup,
and not the year of the Semantic Web at all.
Curt Bonk, Professor, Indiana University, USA

Predicted: There is a distinct shift recently from the clamour over a particular
technology or Web 2.0 tool to how they can be combined for multi-
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pedagogical and multi-technological experiences. There are Facebook groups
for Second Life educators; Facebook groups established to generate research
on YouTube; people blogging on their Second Life adventures and putting up
related pictures in Flicker; classes creating wikibooks with students from
around the world, which have these learners blog on their progress and create
pod casts of their final products. Yet another multi-pedagogical/multi-
technological example is when college students collect sounds from different
cities or locations and index them using Google maps. A new term for these
"mash-ups" will emerge in 2008 in various training and education sectors to
help focus on the wealth of learning-related aspects or possibilities that can
now be realised.
Grade: C
Some marks for predicting the clamour over combining things (no points for
the undefined 'multi-pedagogical and multi-technological experiences'). The
long second and third sentences are not predictions, but rather, descriptions
of the state of affairs (at the end of 2007). No new term for 'mash-up' came
into being in 2008.
Jonathon Levy, Senior Learning Strategist, Monitor Group, USA

It appears the moment we've been anticipating may be arriving. Much of our
work in 2008 will address RFPs for new models of performance-based
learning both from companies and universities! We are responding to requests
for capture of tacit knowledge, and integration of resident expertise that
people carry in their heads into a semantic knowledge ecosystem. There also
seems to be recognition that there is no longer time for learning activities to be
separate from the "doing." We see a growing market for innovative "smart
tools" that transcend "e-learning" and imbed new knowledge acquisition into
the context of doing actual work.
Grade: D
If there was a new market in performance-based learning, it wasn't really
evident. Certainly, it had been talked about for some time, and companies like
Accenture had launched human performance groups. But beyond the usual
level of hype for things like Second Life (which even dropped off a bit in 2008)
there was no particular emphasis on simulation or immersion in learning. The
same with workplace learning and EPS systems. And 'smart systems'. No new
developments over and above the general background noise that has existed
for years. And nothing new on jonathonlevy.com after 2006.
Seb Schmoller, Chief Executive of the UK's Association for Learning

Technology (ALT), England
Predicted: My predictions for 2008: Effective use of RSS by learners,
teachers, and learning providers will become more normal. Meanwhile the off-
line capabilities of browser-based applications like Google Reader will grow,
making a big difference for users with only intermittent Internet access. The
hype surrounding social networking will abate, with a greater understanding
developing about when social networking supports learning and when it is a
distraction. And many more people will break free from Windows or OSX-
based systems, and begin to rely instead on cheaper, lighter, disk-free
devices, with their "stuff" stored somewhere on the Internet rather than locally.
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Grade: B+
Pretty good predictions. More learners, teachers and providers used RSS; the
jury is out on whether it was used more effectively, and the numbers were not
staggering. Off-line browsing capacities did improve, but the impact was
limited. The hype around social networking didn't abate appreciably, but it
leveled off, with criticisms about the appropriateness of using Facebook in
learning becoming more common (also, the popularity of the term 'creepy
treehouse'). Windows and OSX proved more resilient than predicted, actually
gaining ground by occupying the OLPC platform. But cheaper, lighter, disk-
free devices were huge in 2008.
Richard Larson, Director, MIT Learning Interactive Networks Consortium

(LINC) and Mitsui Professor, Engineering Systems, MIT, USA
Predicted: The year 2008 will be the year in which open source educational
materials will be co-invented by educators from around the world and will be
as easily uploaded onto a searchable website as are the videos on YouTube.
Quality control can be maintained either by official moderators, or—
preferably—by market forces guided by user comments prominently
displayed. The content can be incorporated into class-based or distance-
based courses. Each educational entry can be small (an educational
"snippet"), medium (30 minutes of a class), or large (one week's worth of
work).
Grade: F
The YouTube of open leaning materials? Didn't happen? Quality control
mechanisms? Nope - all that was tried with MERLOT years ago, and the
whole quality-review thing just isn't catching on. Incorporating open learning
content into courses? Sure - nothing new there (and not any easier, either).
The concept of 'snippets' was "invented" long before 2008 - they were called
learning objects or information objects. For a prediction, this really is a
surprising submission.
Margaret Driscoll, Managing Consultant, IBM, USA

Predicted: The e-learning buzz for 2008 is virtual reality (VR) for training (the
3-D variety). Industry pundits are selling decision makers on VR's immersive,
distributed, virtual, and collaborative attributes. This stuff is so cool that
mainstream TV shows like "CSI: NY" have an option called "Second Live
Virtual Experience," Sears has a prototype store, and MTV is already in
season three of "Virtual Laguna Beach." Recall the e-learning tsunami of hype
and you will quickly see the parallels. Look for a rush to create a VR training
program, a lack of adequate funding and time to execute, and no grounding in
educational practice or theory. VR is Valhalla for die-hard constructivists.
Grade: A-
Hard to say that this prediction, though narrow, wasn't spot on. As 2008
progressed, it was clear Second Life had peaked in 2007. By the end of it,
organisations like Reuters had bailed and Second Life was fading from the
mainstream. Google pulled the plug on Lively. "The companies that rushed to
set up bases within the cult virtual world of Second Life appear to have
wasted their time as many have shut down and others are "ghost towns", an
85
Australian researcher has found."
Mark Oehlert, Innovation Investigator and Gaming Specialist, Defense

Acquisition University, USA
Predicted: I predict that I will: (1) continue to look for social networking
functionality to become integrated into e-learning platforms; (2) ask why/how
standards like SCORM stay important/relevant as de facto Web standards like
AJAX, REST, and SOAP seem to address the same issues in a more
complete way (and if I am wrong here, please someone tell me); (3) continue
to watch as gaming design and instructional design talk past each other and
fail to find a satisfactory hybrid solution; (4) continue to argue that mobile
learning (as opposed to "immobile learning?") will not cross into the
mainstream as long as we continue to fail to adapt our design to the fact that
most mobile devices are first audio devices and, distantly second, visual
devices. Continuing to define "mobile learning" mainly by it association with
one class of technology (cell phones) will have a similar effect.
Grade: D
Telling us what you are going to talk about for the next year is a bit of a cheap
dodge. Also, predicting that things will not happen is also a bit of a dodge. A
prediction that is a question is definitely a dodge. Yes, web 2.0 technologies
were integrated into e-learning platforms, but this was announced prior to
2008.
Patti Shank, President, Learning Peaks LLC, USA

Predicted: Learning content, activity, and assessment authoring tools continue
to improve. There are great tools with a short learning curve (for example,
Adobe Captivate and Articulate Presenter) and tools with a longer learning
curve that are really excellent (for example, Lectora, and Flashform). Savvy
instructional designers are starting to realise that they cannot be involved in
the development of all instructional content in their organisations. Designers
are beginning to help others author content and that should leave the more
complex projects, where quality of instruction and assurance of skills is
needed, in the hands of capable instructional designers. One oh-so-hopeful
prediction: Instructional design programmes will begin teaching instructional
designers to write. Why this critical skill isn't considered a must-have has me
scratching my head.
Grade: B-
There's no real indication that instructional design programmes began
teaching instructional designers to write. Saying that the tools will improve is
kind of like throwing rocks at trees in a forest. And designers have been
helping others author content for many years now (these days you find mostly
instructional design tools intended to assist authors). It's not all a wash
though. It helps when somebody explicitly identifies cases where your
prediction is being realised.
Clark Quinn, Quinnovation, USA

Predicted:
86
The cynical: There will continue to be "eLearning Solutions Providers" with no
one on the executive/management team who really understands learning; a
total LMS/CMS/Portal/eCommunity all-singing, all-dancing solution will be
announced, but it still won't be the answer.
The optimistic: mLearning will cross the chasm this year, and more
organisations will take a wise perspective toward using technology to populate
the "performance ecosystem." Both: Exciting new Web 2.0 applications will
keep appearing, but we won't be better at avoiding hype and looking for real
learning affordances.
Grade: B-
I searched high and low for a 2008 announcement of "a total
LMS/CMS/Portal/eCommunity all-singing, all-dancing solution" but didn't find
one (I even left out the singing and the dancing). Did mLearning cross the
chasm? That's a bit of a judgment call. It was certainly more popular, but not
arguably mainstream, with most activity in the form of pilot projects and test
runs. Exciting web 2.0 applications kept appearing, but arguably the economic
crash has made us a lot better at avoiding hype - at least for the next few
weeks.
Ben Watson, Director, Microsoft Learning, Canada

Predicted: Somehow in 2007 the power of the human touch passed the
learning industry by when FaceBook, MySpace, and YouTube roared to life
and gained prominence while search engines continued to grow their
dominance by becoming the learning tool of choice for individuals. In 2008,
expect the learning industry to continue to struggle to remain relevant as
these technologies, and others, continue to bypass corporate-structured
learning while individuals continue to vote with their virtual feet while creating
relevant content on their own. Ironically, competing demands for attention will
drive people to single-source as much of their learning as possible.
Grade: B+
The learning industry struggled to stay relevant. Many training departments
failed their organisations. And with the crash in the fall, learning was first on
the chopping block and schools, colleges and universities faced funding cuts.
And we began to see a shift in emphasis from institutions creating learning to
students creating their own learning. We haven't seen the move toward single-
source learning, though iTunes is definitely offering itself as a candidate.
David Porush, Co-founder and Chairman, SpongeFish, USA

New gadgets and communications tech tease us with visions that "it's all
gonna change." Radio, television, the first PCs"—all inspired millennial
prophecies of revolutions in learning. The simple fact is that most people still
learn formally in classrooms very similar to the Sumerians' of 3200 B.C. What
has changed most stunningly is the breadth and instantaneity of our informal
learning. My prediction? Formal learning will still take place in classrooms or
virtual simulacra of classrooms. But this year social networks for sharing what
you know informally and personally will be the big news.
Grade: C
The key aspect of Sumerian classrooms, at least according to Porush (who
87
appears to be the primary source for such references) is that "The discipline of
the schoolchildren being tutored in script 'canalises' their thought processes,
reinforcing certain pathways." Formal learning can still be contrasted with
informal learning, a concept that gained ground steadily in 2008. Were social
networks for learning big news in 2008? Not particularly more than most
anything else. A more concrete prediction would have been helpful here.
Philip Lambert, Vice-President, Red Hot Learning, Canada

Predicted: 2008 will be the year that serious games get serious attention from
corporate training departments. More studies will show the positive learning
effects of games, and, as practitioners quote positive ROI from serious games
that far exceed the ROI provided by other forms of e-learning, many
corporations will jump on this exciting new bandwagon. By the end of the
year, it will be apparent that, just as in the early days of e-learning, people
who do not know what they are doing will create games that do not teach
effectively, do not engage learners, and are not used. This will lead some to
question, once again, the validity of using games to teach.
Grade: A
Games received a lot of attention in 2008 and, in particular, as predicted,
studies showed the positive effects of learning from games. Proving ROI was
more of a challenge, generating some debate, but specific claims were made.
In addition, other people built ineffective games. What's missing thus far to
any great degree is the questioning. Just a matter of time, though.
Overall, the predictions were a pretty mixed bag, with lack of specificity,
predictions of past events, and obviousness being the main culprits. 2008 was
an especially difficult year to predict, and those who simply predicted 'more of
the same' (more social networks, more virtual reality, more YouTube, more
mobile learning) tended to fare poorly. It's likely that in 2009 the people who
based their predictions around the current economic crisis will meet a similar
fate. Predictions of an impact amount to predicting past events, but identifying
the specific impact will be more difficult. And what will technology do in the
mean time? If you focused on the economic downturn, you probably missed
that.

88

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Learning Light Limited

The UK e-learning market 2009

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

Creativesheffield is pleased to be supporting the publication of this important

Sheffield is also home to Learning Light who have become a recognised

T: +44 (0)114 223 2345

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

Learning Light is a centre of excellence in the use of e-learning and learning

Learning Light operates www.e-learningcentre.co.uk one of the leading

Learning Light is supported by Yorkshire Forward, the regional development

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

David Patterson gained 20 year's general managerial

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

Glynn Jung is widely known across the UK

Learning Leadership is a small organisation formed

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

Gill Broadhead has specialised in learning & development

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

We would wish to extend our thanks to Yorkshire Forward, Sheffield Chamber

But, most importantly our thanks go to the following companies and

Company Interviewee Web site and About

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

Since 1998 we have been creating

eOrigen is a leading producer of high

We’ve found that compromise is not the

People absorb information by seeing,

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

The FISC E-Learningonline™ platform

I am Learning can be used stand alone or

Intellego Group is a learning and

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

PIXELearning is a world-leading provider

We believe in delivering high interactive,

Using our creativity and experience we

SkillSoft is a leading provider of e-learning

We design and develop world-class,

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

1.1 background to the report

An important part of the process of information gathering and interpretation

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

This report is designed to offer an overview of what we believe is the present

We begin by offering a brief model of what we believe is the present working

This series of semi structured interviews were conducted over 2 months in

The principal finding is that the UK e-learning industry remains robustly

One key factor highlighted is the role of marketing departments in

Despite the difficult times, resulting in undoubted downward price pressure

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

Previous terminologies used have included “Computer Based Training” (CBT),

3.1 e-learning - definitions

Allen describes or defines e-learning like this:

“Some uses are effective – magnificently so. Others are not.”

3.1.1 e-learning components

Allen then seeks to illustrate the components referred to as below:

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

“e-learning is delivery of carefully constructed instructional events

This Allen argues is a more useful definition as it excludes simple

Accordingly we present two more diagrams seeking to define and

The UK e-learning Market © Learning Light Limited 2009

3.2 How e-learning is flowering

Learning devices Learning resources

From automation toIn the

e-Learning 1.0 Niche specialists