Page | 1

Causes of the First World War

M. Aamir Sultan

The causes of World War I, which began in central Europe in July 1914, included many intertwined factors,
such as the conflicts and hostility of the four decades leading up to the war. Militarism, alliances, imperialism,
and nationalism played major roles in the conflict as well. However, the immediate origins of the war lay in the
decisions taken by statesmen and generals during the July Crisis of 1914, casus belli for which was the
assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife by Gavrilo Princip, an irredentist Serb.

The crisis came after a long and difficult series of diplomatic clashes between the Great Powers (Italy, France,
Germany, Great Britain, Austria-Hungarian Empire and Russia) over European and colonial issues in the
decade before 1914 that had left tensions high. In turn these diplomatic clashes can be traced to changes in the
balance of power in Europe since 1867. The more immediate cause for the war was tensions over territory in the
Balkans. Austria-Hungary competed with Serbia and Russia for territory and influence in the region and they
pulled the rest of the Great Powers into the conflict through their various alliances and treaties.

The topic of the causes of World War I is one of the most studied in all of world history. Scholars have differed
significantly in their interpretations of the event.

From the time of the Balkan Wars, which had increased the size of Serbia, it had been the opinion of leading
Austrian officials (most notably the Foreign Minister, Count Leopold von Berchtold and his assistant, Rory von
Kimber) that Austria would have to wage a "preventive war" to greatly weaken or destroy Serbia as a state in
order to maintain the dual monarchy which held extensive Serb-populated Balkan territories. Between January
1913 and January 1914, Chief of the General Staff Count Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf advocated a preventive
war against Serbia twenty-four times.

The alliance situation in central Europe in 1914

Serbia expanded its territory at the expense of the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria under the terms of the Treaty
of Bucharest. Regarding the expansion of Serbia as an unacceptable increase in the power of an unfriendly state
and in order to weaken Serbia, the Austrian government threatened war in the autumn of 1912 if Serbs were to
acquire a port from the Turks. Austria appealed for German support, only to be rebuffed at first.
In November 1912 Russia, humiliated by its inability to support Serbia during the Bosnian crisis of 1908 or the
First Balkan War, announced a major reconstruction of its military.
On November 28, in partial reaction to the Russian move, German Foreign Secretary Gottlieb von Jagow told
the Reichstag, the German parliament, that “If Austria is forced, for whatever reason, to fight for its position as
a Great Power, then we must stand by her”. As a result, British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey responded
by warning Prince Karl Lichnowsky, the German Ambassador in London, that if Germany offered Austria a
“blank cheque” for war in the Balkans, then “the consequences of such a policy would be incalculable”. To
reinforce this point, R. B. Haldane, the Germanophile Lord Chancellor, met with Prince Lichnowsky to offer an
explicit warning that if Germany were to upset the balance of power in Europe by trying to destroy either
France or Russia as powers, Britain would have no other choice but to fight the Reich.

With the recently announced Russian military reconstruction and certain British communications, the possibility
of war was a prime topic at the German Imperial War Council of 8 December 1912 in Berlin, an informal
meeting of some of Germany's top military leadership called on short notice by the Kaiser. Attending the
conference were Wilhelm II, Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz - the Naval State Secretary, Admiral Georg Alexander
von Müller, the Chief of the German Imperial Naval Cabinet (Marinekabinett), General von Moltke - the
Army’s Chief of Staff, Admiral August von Heeringen - the Chief of the Naval General Staff and (probably)
General Moriz von Lyncker, the Chief of the German Imperial Military Cabinet. The presence of the leaders of
Page | 2

both the German Army and Navy at this War Council attests to its importance. However, Chancellor Theobald
von Bethmann-Hollweg and General Josias von Heeringen, the Prussian Minister of War, were not invited.

Wilhelm II called British balance of power principles “idiocy,” but agreed that Haldane’s statement was a
“desirable clarification” of British policy. His opinion was that Austria should attack Serbia that December, and
if “Russia supports the Serbs, which she evidently does…then war would be unavoidable for us, too,” and that
would be better than going to war after Russia completed the massive modernization and expansion of their
army that they had just begun. Moltke agreed. In his professional military opinion “a war is unavoidable and the
sooner the better”. Moltke “wanted to launch an immediate attack”.

Both Wilhelm II and the Army leadership agreed that if a war were necessary it were best launched soon.
Admiral Tirpitz, however, asked for a “postponement of the great fight for one and a half years” because the
Navy was not ready for a general war that included Britain as an opponent. He insisted that the completion of
the construction of the U-boat base at Heligoland and the widening of the Kiel Canal were the Navy’s
prerequisites for war. As the British historian John Röhl has commented, the date for completion of the
widening of the Kiel Canal was the summer of 1914. Though Moltke objected to the postponement of the war
as unacceptable, Wilhelm sided with Tirpitz. Moltke “agreed to a postponement only reluctantly.”

Historians more sympathetic to the government of Wilhelm II often reject the importance of this War Council
as only showing the thinking and recommendations of those present, with no decisions taken. They often cite
the passage from Admiral Müller’s diary, which states: “That was the end of the conference. The result
amounted to nothing.” Certainly the only decision taken was to do nothing.

Historians more sympathetic to the Entente, such as British historian John Röhl, sometimes rather ambitiously
interpret these words of Admiral Müller (an advocate of launching a war soon) as saying that "nothing" was
decided for 1912-13, but that war was decided on for the summer of 1914. Röhl is on safer ground when he
argues that even if this War Council did not reach a binding decision - which it clearly did not - it did
nonetheless offer a clear view of their intentions, or at least their thoughts, which were that if there was going to
be a war, the German Army wanted it before the new Russian armaments program began to bear fruit. Entente
sympathetic historians such as Röhl see this conference in which "The result amounted to nothing” as setting a
clear deadline when a war was to begin, namely the summer of 1914.

With the November 1912 announcement of the Russian Great Military Programme, the leadership of the
German Army began clamoring even more strongly for a “preventive war” against Russia. Moltke declared that
Germany could not win the arms race with France, Britain and Russia, which she herself had begun in 1911,
because the financial structure of the German state, which gave the Reich government little power to tax, meant
Germany would bankrupt herself in an arms race. As such, Moltke from late 1912 onwards was the leading
advocate for a general war, and the sooner the better.

Throughout May and June 1914, Moltke engaged in an “almost ultimative” demand for a German “preventive
war” against Russia in 1914. The German Foreign Secretary, Gottlieb von Jagow, reported on a discussion with
Moltke at the end of May 1914:
“Moltke described to me his opinion of our military situation. The prospects of the future oppressed him
heavily. In two or three years Russia would have completed her armaments. The military superiority of our
enemies would then be so great that he did not know how he could overcome them. Today we would still be a
match for them. In his opinion there was no alternative to making preventive war in order to defeat the enemy
while we still had a chance of victory. The Chief of the General Staff therefore proposed that I should conduct a
policy with the aim of provoking a war in the near future.”

The new French President Raymond Poincaré, who took office in 1913, was favourable to improving relations
with Germany. In January 1914 Poincaré became the first French President to dine at the German Embassy in
Page | 3

Paris. Poincaré was more interested in the idea of French expansion in the Middle East than a war of revenge to
regain Alsace-Lorraine. Had the Reich been interested in improved relations with France before August 1914,
the opportunity was available, but the leadership of the Reich lacked such interests, and preferred a policy of
war to destroy France. Because of France’s smaller economy and population, by 1913 French leaders had
largely accepted that France by itself could never defeat Germany.

In May 1914, Serbian politics were polarized between two factions, one headed by the Prime Minister Nikola
Pašić, and the other by the radical nationalist chief of Military Intelligence, Colonel Dragutin Dimitrijević,
known by his codename Apis. In that month, due to Colonel Dimitrigjevic’s intrigues, King Peter dismissed
Pašić’s government. The Russian Minister in Belgrade intervened to have Pašić’s government restored. Pašić,
though he often talked tough in public, knew that Serbia was near-bankrupt and, having suffered heavy
casualties in the Balkan Wars and in the suppression of a December 1913 Albanian revolt in Kosovo, needed
peace. Since Russia also favoured peace in the Balkans, from the Russian viewpoint it was desirable to keep
Pašić in power. It was in the midst of this political crisis that politically powerful members of the Serbian
military armed and trained three Bosnian students as assassins and sent them into Austria-Hungary.

German domestic politics

Left wing parties, especially the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) made large gains in the 1912
German election. German government at the time was still dominated by the Prussian Junkers who feared the
rise of these left wing parties. Fritz Fischer famously argued that they deliberately sought an external war to
distract the population and whip up patriotic support for the government. Russia was in the midst of a large
scale military build-up and reform which was to be completed in 1916-17.

Other authors argue that German conservatives were ambivalent about a war, worrying that losing a war would
have disastrous consequences, and even a successful war might alienate the population if it were lengthy or
difficult.

French domestic politics

The situation in France was quite different from that in Germany but yielded the same results. More than a
century after the French Revolution, there was still a fierce struggle between the left-wing French government
and its right-wing opponents, including monarchists and "Bonapartists." A "good old war" was seen by both
sides (with the exception of Jean Jaurès) as a way to solve this crisis thanks to a nationalistic reflex. For
example, on July 29, after he had returned from the summit in St. Petersburg, President Poincaré was asked if
war could be avoided. He is reported to have replied: "It would be a great pity. We should never again find
conditions better."
Prime Minister and then President Poincaré was a strong hawk. In 1913 Poincaré predicted war for 1914. In
1920 at the University of Paris, thinking back to his own student days, Poincaré remarked "I have not been able
to see any reason for my generation living, except the hope of recovering our lost provinces (Alsace-Lorraine;
Poincaré was born in Lorraine)."

Changes in Austria

Ethno-linguistic map of Austria–Hungary in 1910

Franco–Prussian War (1870–1871)

Many of the direct origins of World War I can be seen in the results and consequences of the Franco-Prussian
War. This conflict brought the establishment of a powerful and dynamic Germany, causing what was seen as a
displacement or unbalancing of power: this new and prosperous nation had the industrial and military potential
to threaten Europe, and particularly the already established European powers. Germany’s nationalism, its
Page | 4

natural resources, its economic strengths and its ambitions sparked colonial and military rivalries with other
nations, particularly the Anglo-German naval arms race.

A legacy of animosity grew between France and Germany following the German annexation of parts of the
formerly French territory of Alsace-Lorraine. The annexation caused widespread resentment in France, giving
rise to the desire for revenge, known as revanchism. French sentiments wanted to avenge military and territorial
losses, and the displacement of France as the pre-eminent continental military power. French defeat in the war
had sparked political instability, culminating in a revolution and the formation of the French Third Republic.
Bismarck was wary of this during his later years and tried to placate the French by encouraging their overseas
expansion. However, anti-German sentiment remained. A Franco–German colonial entente that was made in
1884 in protest of an Anglo–Portuguese agreement in West Africa proved short-lived after a pro-imperialist
government under Jules Ferry in France fell in 1885.

Austrian-Serbian tensions and Bosnian Annexation Crisis

On night between June 10/11 1903, a group of Serbian officers assassinated unpopular King Alexander I of
Serbia. The Serbian parliament elected Peter Karađorđević as the new king of Serbia. Dynastic change for
consequence had rallying Serbian on Russia and France rather than on Austria-Hungary as it was case during
rule of Obrenović dynasty. Serbian desire to relieve itself of Austrian influence provoked the Pig War, an
economic conflict, from which Serbia eventually came out as the victor.

Austria-Hungary, desirous of solidifying its position in Bosnia-Herzegovina, annexed the provinces on October
6, 1908. The annexation set off a wave of protests and diplomatic maneuvers that became known as the Bosnian
crisis, or annexation crisis. The crisis continued until April 1909, when the annexation received grudging
international approval through amendment of the Treaty of Berlin. During the crisis, relations between Austria-
Hungary, on the one hand, and Russia and Serbia, on the other, were permanently damaged.

After an exchange of letters outlining a possible deal, Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Izvolsky and Austro-
Hungarian Foreign Minister Alois Aehrenthal met privately at Buchlau Castle in Moravia on September 16,
1908. At Buchlau the two agreed that Austria-Hungary could annex the Ottoman provinces of Bosnia and
Herzegovina, which Austria-Hungary occupied and administered since 1878 under a mandate from the Treaty
of Berlin. In return, Austria-Hungary would withdraw its troops from the Ottoman Sanjak of Novibazar and
support Russia in its efforts to amend the Treaty of Berlin to allow Russian war ships to navigate the Straits of
Constantinople during times of war. The two jointly agreed not to oppose Bulgarian independence.

While Izvolsky moved slowly from capital to capital vacationing and seeking international support for opening
the Straits, Bulgaria and Austria-Hungary moved swiftly. On October 5, Bulgaria declared its independence
from the Ottoman Empire. The next day, Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina. On October 7,
Austria-Hungary announced its withdrawal from the Sanjak of Novi Pazar. Russia, unable to obtain Britain's
assent to Russia's Straits proposal, joined Serbia in assuming an attitude of protest. Britain lodged a milder
protest, taking the position that annexation was a matter concerning Europe, not a bilateral issue, and so a
conference should be held. France fell in line behind Britain. Italy proposed that the conference be held in Italy.
German opposition to the conference and complex diplomatic maneuvering scuttled the conference. On
February 20, 1909, the Ottoman Empire, acquiesced to the annexation and received ₤2.2 million from Austria-
Hungary.

Austria-Hungary began releasing secret documents in which Russia, since 1878, had repeatedly stated that
Austria-Hungary had a free hand in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Sanjak of Novibazar. At the same time,
Germany stated it would only continue its active involvement in negotiations if Russia accepted the annexation.
Under these pressures, Russia agreed to the annexation, and persuaded Serbia to do the same. The Treaty of
Page | 5

Berlin then was amended by correspondence between capitals from April 7 to April 19, 1909, to reflect the
annexation.

The Balkan Wars (1912–1913)

The Balkan Wars in 1912-1913 led to increased international tension between Russia and Austria as well as a
strengthening of Serbia and a weakening of Turkey and Bulgaria which might otherwise have kept Serbia in
check thus disrupting the balance of power in Europe in favor of Russia.

Russia initially agreed to avoid territorial changes, but later in 1912 supported Serbia's demand for an Albanian
port. An international conference was held in London in 1912-1913 where it was agreed to create an
independent Albania, however both Serbia and Montenegro refused to comply. After an Austrian, and then an
international naval demonstration in early 1912 and Russia's withdrawal of support Serbia backed down.
Montenegro was not as compliant and on May 2, the Austrian council of ministers met and decided to give
Montenegro a last chance to comply and if it would not then to resort to military action, however seeing the
Austrian military preparations the Montenegrins requested the ultimatum be delayed and complied.

The Serbian government having failed to get Albania now demanded that the other spoils of the First Balkan
War be reapportioned, and Russia failed to pressure it to back down. Serbia and Greece allied against Bulgaria,
which responded with a preemptive strike against their forces beginning the Second Balkan War. The Bulgarian
army however crumbled quickly when Turkey and Romania joined the war.

The Balkan Wars strained the German/Austro-Hungarian alliance. The attitude of the German government to
Austrian requests of support against Serbia was initially both divided and inconsistent. However, after the
German Imperial War Council of 8 December 1912, it was clear that Germany was not ready to support
Austria-Hungary in a war against Serbia and her likely allies.

In September 1913, it was learned that Serbia was moving into Albania and Russia was doing nothing to
restrain it while the Serbian government would not guarantee to respect Albania's territorial integrity and
suggested there would be some frontier modifications. In October 1913, it was decided by the council of
ministers that Serbia be sent a warning followed by an ultimatum, that Germany and Italy be notified that there
would be some action and asked for support, and that spies be sent to ascertain if there was an actual
withdrawal. Serbia responded to the warning with defiance and the Ultimatum was dispatched on October 17
and received the following day demanding that Serbia evacuate Albanian territory within eight days. Serbia
complied, and the Kaiser made a congratulatory visit to Vienna to try to fix some of the damage done earlier in
the year.

During the period immediately following the end of hostilities, Anglo-American historians argued that Germany
was solely responsible for the start of the war. However, academic work in the English-speaking world in the
later 1920s and 1930s blamed participants more equally.

Since 1960, the tendency has been to reassert the guilt of Germany, i.e., “The Berlin War Party,” although some
historians have argued for shared guilt or pointed to the Entente.
Page | 6

Murder

On 28 June 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir apparent to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and his
wife, Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg, were shot dead in Sarajevo, by Gavrilo Princip, one of a group of six
Bosnian Serb assassins coordinated by Danilo Ilić. The political objective of the assassination was to break off
Austria-Hungary's south-Slav provinces so they could be combined into a Greater Serbia or a Yugoslavia. The
assassins' motives were consistent with the movement that later became known as Young Bosnia. Serbian
military officers stood behind the attack.

Consequences

The murder of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire and his wife produced widespread shock across Europe,
and there was initially much sympathy for the Austrian position. Within two days of the assassination, Austria-
Hungary and Germany advised Serbia that it should open an investigation. Austria-Hungary issued a formal
letter to the government of Serbia. The letter reminded Serbia of its commitment to respect the Great Powers'
decision regarding Bosnia-Herzegovina, and to maintain good neighborly relations with Austria-Hungary. The
letter contained specific demands aimed at preventing the publication of propaganda advocating the violent
destruction of Austria-Hungary, removing the people behind this propaganda from the Serbian Military,
arresting the people on Serbian soil who were involved in the assassination plot and preventing the clandestine
shipment of arms and explosives from Serbia to Austria-Hungary.

This letter is known as the July Ultimatum, and Austria-Hungary stated that if Serbia did not accept all of the
demands in total within 48 hours, it would recall its ambassador from Serbia. After receiving a telegram of
support from Russia, Serbia mobilized its army and responded to the letter by completely accepting point #8
demanding an end to the smuggling of weapons and punishment of the frontier officers who had assisted the
assassins and completely accepting point #10 which demanded Serbia report the execution of the required
measures as they were completed.

Austria-Hungary responded by breaking diplomatic relations.

The next day, Serbian reservists being transported on tramp steamers on the Danube crossed onto the Austro-
Hungarian side of the river at Temes-Kubin and Austro-Hungarian soldiers fired into the air to warn them off.
The report of this incident was initially sketchy and reported to Emperor Franz-Joseph as “a considerable
skirmish”. Austria-Hungary then declared war and mobilized the portion of its army that would face the
(already mobilized) Serbian Army on 28 July 1914. Under the Secret Treaty of 1892 Russia and France were
obliged to mobilize their armies if any of the Triple Alliance mobilized. Russia's mobilization set-off full
Austro-Hungarian and German mobilizations. Soon all the Great Powers except Italy had chosen sides and gone
to war.
Page | 7

The Causes of the First World War ===mine

There are many reasons why the World went to war in 1914. These are some of the more important
reasons. 
Britain and Germany were competing to have the most powerful navy in the world. This caused
tension in Europe. 

The Scramble for Africa (when European countries had tried to get as many colonies as they could)
had led to many small conflicts around the world. This meant that some of the major European
powers were not very friendly towards each other. 

The French were very distrustful of the Germans as a result of the war in 1870-1871 that the
Germans had won. 

The alliance systems set up to prevent war meant that any major political disputes would inevitably
lead to a large rather than a small conflict. 

Nationalism. People across the world were very eager to let the rest of the world how strong and
important their country was. many people thought that their country was better than others: and
thought that they'd be able to win a war very easily if there was one. 

The Balkans region of Europe was claimed by both Russia and Austria (it was in general under
Austrian control). This meant that the Russians and the Austrians would both be eager to enforce
their authority over this region. 

A desire for independence. many people in Europe lived in countries that were part of empires.
They didn't all like being ruled by people with different languages and religions and this led to
conflicts that could (and did) involve other nations. 

The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. He was the heir to the Austrian throne
and was murdered by Serbian nationalists. This was the spark that caused war to be declar