CONTAGIONS log

2/26/2020 13 2.56494936
2/27/2020 15
2/28/2020 32
2/29/2020 45
3/1/2020 84
3/2/2020 120
3/3/2020 165
3/4/2020 222
3/5/2020 259
3/6/2020 400
3/7/2020 500
3/8/2020 673
3/9/2020 1073
3/10/2020 1695
3/11/2020 2277
3/12/2020 2277
3/13/2020 5232
3/14/2020 6391
3/15/2020 7798
3/16/2020 9942
3/17/2020 11748
3/18/2020 13910
3/19/2020 17963
3/20/2020 20410
3/21/2020 25374
3/22/2020 28768
3/23/2020 35136
3/24/2020 39885
3/25/2020 49515
3/26/2020 55786
3/27/2020 65719
3/28/2020 73235
3/29/2020 80110
3/30/2020 87956
3/31/2020 95923
4/1/2020 104118
4/2/2020 112065
4/3/2020 119199
4/4/2020 126168
4/5/2020 131646
4/6/2020 136675
4/7/2020 141942
4/8/2020 148220
4/9/2020 153222
4/10/2020 158273
4/11/2020 163027
4/12/2020 166831
4/13/2020 170099
4/14/2020 172541
4/15/2020 177644
4/16/2020 184948
4/17/2020 190839
4/18/2020 191726
4/19/2020 198674
4/20/2020 200210
 DEATHS
2/26/2020 0 Err:502 0 0
2/27/2020 0 Err:502 0 0
2/28/2020 0 Err:502 0 0
2/29/2020 0 Err:502 0 0
3/1/2020 0 Err:502 0 0
3/2/2020 0 Err:502 0 0
3/3/2020 1 0 1 0 0
3/4/2020 2 0.693147181 2 0.69314718 0.69314718
3/5/2020 3 1.098612289 3 1.09861229 1.09861229
3/6/2020 5 1.609437912 5 1.60943791 1.60943791
3/7/2020 10 2.302585093 10 2.30258509 2.30258509
3/8/2020 17 2.833213344 17 2.83321334 2.83321334
3/9/2020 28 3.33220451 28 3.33220451 3.33220451
3/10/2020 35 3.555348061 35 3.55534806 3.55534806
3/11/2020 54 3.988984047 54 3.98898405 3.98898405
3/12/2020 55 4.007333185 55 4.00733319 4.00733319
3/13/2020 133 4.890349128 133 4.89034913 4.89034913
3/14/2020 195 5.272999559 195 5.27299956 5.27299956
3/15/2020 289 5.666426688 289 5.66642669 5.66642669
3/16/2020 342 5.834810737 342 5.83481074 5.83481074
3/17/2020 533 6.278521424 533 6.27852142 6.27852142
3/18/2020 623 6.434546519 623 6.43454652 6.43454652
3/19/2020 830 6.721425701 830 6.7214257 6.7214257
3/20/2020 1043 6.949856455 1043 6.94985646 6.94985646
3/21/2020 1375 7.22620901 1375 7.22620901 7.22620901
3/22/2020 1772 7.479864131 1772 7.47986413 7.47986413
3/23/2020 2311 7.74543561 2311 7.74543561 7.74543561
3/24/2020 2808 7.940227765 2808 7.94022777 7.94022777
3/25/2020 3647 8.201660191 3647 8.20166019 8.20166019
3/26/2020 4365 8.381373468 4365 8.38137347 8.38137347
3/27/2020 5138 8.544419178 5138 8.54441918 8.54441918
3/28/2020 5982 8.696510239 5982 8.69651024 8.69651024
3/29/2020 6803 8.82511897 6803 8.82511897 8.82511897
3/30/2020 7716 8.951051374 7716 8.95105137 8.95105137
3/31/2020 8464 9.043577154 8464 9.04357715 9.04357715
4/1/2020 9387 9.147081032 9387 9.14708103 9.14708103
4/2/2020 10348 9.244548543 10348 9.24454854 9.24454854
4/3/2020 11198 9.32349047 11198 9.32349047 9.32349047
4/4/2020 11947 9.38823548 11947 9.38823548 9.38823548
4/5/2020 12641 9.444700778 12641 9.44470078 9.44470078
4/6/2020 13341 9.498597279 13341 9.49859728 9.49859728
4/7/2020 14045 9.55002174 14045 9.55002174 9.55002174
4/8/2020 14792 9.601841773 14792 9.60184177 9.60184177
4/9/2020 15447 9.645170089 15447 9.64517009 9.64517009
4/10/2020 16081 9.68539373 16081 9.68539373 9.68539373
4/11/2020 16606 9.717519355 16606 9.71751935 9.71751935
4/12/2020 17209 9.753187782 17209 9.75318778 9.75318778
4/13/2020 17756 9.784478766 17756 9.78447877 9.78447877
4/14/2020 18056 9.801233318 18056 9.80123332 9.80123332
4/15/2020 18708 9.836706519 18708 9.83670652 9.83670652
4/16/2020 19315 9.868637275 19315 9.86863728 9.86863728
4/17/2020 20002 9.903587548 20002 9.90358755 9.90358755
4/18/2020 20043 9.905635245 20043 9.90563524 9.90563524
4/19/2020 20453 9.92588485 20453 9.92588485 9.92588485
4/20/2020 20852 9.945205146 20852 9.94520515 9.94520515
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
 third prediction
total forecast
date variable forecast trendforecast TOTAL ORECAST real value

3/31/2020 1211.956208409 7353.2927807 8565.248989158 8464

4/1/2020 1450.69169769 8027.6123377 9478.304035353 9387
4/2/2020 1691.037324636 8729.5681946 10420.60551919 10348
4/3/2020 1931.450344075 9459.1603514 11390.61069549 11198
4/4/2020 2166.767392134 10216.388808 12383.15620038 11947

forth prediction
total forecast
date variable forecast trendforecast TOTAL ORECAST real value
4/5/2020 340.9292794771 12431.072656 12772.00193513 12641
4/6/2020 217.830528838 13376.303392 13594.13392089 13341
4/7/2020 94.18087551861 14354.360314 14448.5411898 14045
4/8/2020 -45.68036077983 15365.243422 15319.56306154 14792
4/9/2020 -194.7747966476 16408.952716 16214.17791953 15447

prediction five
total forecast
date variable forecast trendforecast TOTAL ORECAST real value
4/10/2020 -992.1234017856 17153.266309 16161.14290749 16081
4/11/2020 -1358.483132308 18233.383776 16874.90064399 16606
4/12/2020 -1733.554633841 19345.273152 17611.71851823 17209
4/13/2020 -2126.571910151 20488.934437 18362.36252644 17756
4/14/2020 -2533.898121707 21664.36763 19130.46950815 18056
4/15/2020 -2956.965648449 22871.572732 19914.60708342 18708

prediction six
total forecast
date variable forecast trendforecast TOTAL ORECAST real value
4/16/2020 -2442.035881117 21736.024592 19293.98871072 19315
4/17/2020 -2938.40642903 22830.451543 19892.04511359 20002
4/18/2020 -3448.986847359 23951.156056 20502.1692086 20043
4/19/2020 -3973.777136104 25098.138132 21124.36099576 20453
4/20/2020 -4512.777295264 26271.39777 21758.62047507 20852
error %

101.248989 1.20%
91.3040354 0.97%
72.6055192 0.70%
192.610695 1.72%
436.1562 3.65%

error %
131.001935 1.04%
253.133921 1.90%
403.54119 2.87%
527.563062 3.57%
767.17792 4.97%

error %
80.1429075 0.50%
268.900644 1.62%
402.718518 2.34%
606.362526 3.41%
1074.46951 5.95%
1206.60708 6.45%

error %
-21.0112893 -0.11%
-109.954886 -0.55%
459.169209 2.29%
671.360996 3.28%
906.620475 4.35%
 RECOVERED
2/26/2020 2
2/27/2020 2
2/28/2020 2 PARAMETROS SIGNIFICATIVOS
2/29/2020 2 ESTACIONARIO E INVERTIBLE
3/1/2020 2 RESIDUOS RUIDO BLANCO
3/2/2020 2 NORMALIDAD
3/3/2020 2
3/4/2020 2
3/5/2020 2
3/6/2020 2 4/16/2020
3/7/2020 30 4/17/2020
3/8/2020 30 4/18/2020
3/9/2020 32 4/19/2020
3/10/2020 32 4/20/2020
3/11/2020 183
3/12/2020 183
3/13/2020 193
3/14/2020 517 4/16/2020
3/15/2020 517 4/17/2020
3/16/2020 530 4/18/2020
3/17/2020 1028 4/19/2020
3/18/2020 1081 4/20/2020
3/19/2020 1107
3/20/2020 1588
3/21/2020 2125
3/22/2020 2575 4/16/2020
3/23/2020 2575 4/17/2020
3/24/2020 3794 4/18/2020
3/25/2020 5367 4/19/2020
3/26/2020 7015 4/20/2020
3/27/2020 9357
3/28/2020 12285
3/29/2020 14709
3/30/2020 16780
3/31/2020 19259
4/1/2020 22647
4/2/2020 26743
4/3/2020 30513
4/4/2020 34219
4/5/2020 38080
4/6/2020 40437
4/7/2020 43208
4/8/2020 48021
4/9/2020 52165
4/10/2020 55668
4/11/2020 59109
4/12/2020 62391
4/13/2020 64727
4/14/2020 67504
4/15/2020 70853
4/16/2020 74797
4/17/2020 74797
4/18/2020 74797
4/19/2020 77357
4/20/2020 80587
AR(2) AR(3)
SI SI
SI SI
SI MEJOR
NO NO

LIMITE INF
126472.87388
99117.33712
50419.663469
-16885.21878
-99597.1423

LIMITE MAX
246260.317
293930.10747
369992.54159
470738.47851
593761.81857

PREDICCIÓN REAL ERROR %

186366.59544 184948 1418.59544 0.8%
196523.72229 190839 5684.72229 3.0%
210206.10253 191726 18480.1025 9.6%
226926.62986 198674 28252.6299 14.2%
247082.33814 200210 46872.3381 23.4%