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Daily Commodity Market Update as on Wednesday, April 06, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG


MCX
Bullion rose more than 1 percent, its biggest gain in more
GOLD 20975 21179 20915 21162 1.03 than a month of range-bound trading. Silver soared to a
SILVER 56755 57591 56325 57527 1.47 lifetime high. Both drew support from Federal Reserve
SPOT $ Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments late on Monday
GOLD 1454 1454.95 1450.85 1452.9 -0.16 suggesting he was committed to completing a $600 billion
stimulus program as scheduled in June.
SILVER 39.24 39.43 39.08 39.37 0.33
PLATINUM 1788.99 1796 1785.75 1790.75 0.28

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG


MCX
Crude oil ended lower as traders positioned ahead of
CRUDE 4805 4827 4787 4793 -0.38 weekly inventory data forecast to show an increase in
N.GAS 191.7 193.4 189.4 190 -1.42 domestic crude stocks. Natural gas ended down amid
indications of decreased demand as forecasts showed
SPOT $ mild temperatures in key gas
gas-heating
heating areas in the U.S.
next week.
CRUDE 108.2 108.6 107.5 108.34 0.12939

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG


MCX
COPPER 419 25
419.25 422 2
422.2 415 6
415.6 418 35
418.35 -0 16
-0.16 Continued tightening in China as they raise key interest
ZINC 107.9 108.9 106.05 106.35 -1.46 rates another 25 basis points put a bit of a damper on the
NICKEL 1138.1 1147.9 1122.5 1134.5 -0.43 base metals.
LEAD 124 125.45 122.4 124.2 0
ALUMINIUM 116.9 117.5 116.4 116.65 -0.26

LME LME STOCK


COPPER 9355 9508 9264 9507.5 1.49 COPPER 4425 442325
ZINC 2425 2447.5 2382 2413 1.13 ZINC -675 735400
NICKEL 25450 2648.75 25050 25824 1.39 NICKEL -528 123228
LEAD 2755 2785 2706 2774 0.43 LEAD -1775 279425
ALUMINIUM 2635 2785 2622 2643 0.46 ALUMINIUM 4475 4593175

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE


SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
19783.79 5936.6 2327.87 1332.69 8488.39 12393.9 9632.61 2991.46 2132.59 24287.09 75.8
0.49 0.45 -0.29 0 0.07 -0.05 0.11 0.81 0.1 0.59 -0.11

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OPEN
20975
HIGH
21179
FUTURE

LOW
20915
CLOSE
21162
% CNG
1.03
VOLUME
X GOLD F

32520
OI
10190
RE CNG
219

INTRADAY LEVELS
MCX

Gold moved sharply higher in overnight trade as Eurozone debt concerns reemerged after Portugal’s
d bt rating
debt ti was d downgraded.
d d G Gold
ld b
broke
k ththroughh th
the previous
i all-time
ll ti hi
high
h and d fi
finished
i h d th
the US PP
P.P. 21085
session stronger by 1.40% at $1,453. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR SUP 1 RES 1
Gold Trust, said its holdings inched up to 1,212.745 tonnes by April 5 from 1,211.229 tonnes on
20992 21256
March 31. Gold looking firm today also as held near a lifetime high hit in the previous session as
inflation fears lingered after crude and corn rallied to new peaks, having risen to its strongest level in SUP 2 RES 2
more than three decades. Now gold is getting support at 20931 and below could see a test of 20917 20821 21349
level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 20959, a move above could see prices testing SUP 3 RES 3
20973.
20728 21520

OPEN
56755
TURE

HIGH
57591
LOW
56325
LVER FUT

CLOSE
57527
% CNG
1.47
VOLUME
98550
OI
17272
MCX SIL

RE CNG
845

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver zoomed to a new high on hectic buying by stockists and jewellers for the ongoing 'Navratra'
festival, amid a firming global trend. Shifting of funds from weakening equities to the firming bullion P.P. 57148
market further fuelled the uptrend in precious metals. Trading sentiments for the white metal SUP 1 RES 1
remained bullish as it reached a 31-year peak in global markets on rising oil and grain prices fanning
56704 57970
concerns that inflation is accelerating, supporting demand for the precious metal as an alternative
investment Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating
investment. SUP 2 RES 2
70.96, where as 50DMA is at 51438.74 and silver is trading above the same and getting support at 55882 58414
55831 and below could see a test of 55777 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 55964, a SUP 3 RES 3
move above could see prices testing 56043.
55438 59236

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OPEN
4805
HIGH
X CRUDE FUTURE
E

4827
LOW
4787
CLOSE
4793
% CNG
-0.38
VOLUME
102456
OI
17369
RE CNG
-18

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude oil declined after China unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate; however losses were
MCX

li it d amid
limited id ongoing
i violence
i l in
i North
N th Af
Africa
i and
d th
the Middl
Middle E
East.
t E
Earlier
li ini the
th dday, th
the P
People’s
l ’ PP
P.P. 4802
Bank of China raised its interest rate by 0.25% to 6.31%. The central bank also lifted its deposit rate SUP 1 RES 1
to 3.25% from 3%. It was the fourth interest rate hike since October 2010 and the second in 2011.
4778 4818
IEA forecasting that China will account or approximately 40% of global oil demand growth in 2011.
However, prices remained supported as fighting in Libya continued overnight, as rebel forces SUP 2 RES 2
reclaimed much of the coastal city of Brega, after losing the oil town to forces loyal to Gaddafi over 4762 4842
the weekend. Now crude is getting support at 4802 and below could see a test of 4780 level, and SUP 3 RES 3
resistance is now likely to be seen at 4838, a move above could see prices testing 4852.
4738 4858

OPEN
419.25
TURE

HIGH
422.2
LOW
415.6
PPER FUT

CLOSE
418.35
% CNG
-0.16
VOLUME
93820
OI
28184
MCX COP

RE CNG
-0.65

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.21% down at 419.1 but the outlook
slight changed to positive on prospects for improved demand in Asia, recovering from losses earlier P.P. 418.7
in the day after China announced an interest rate hike. China's central bank raised interest rates for
the fourth time since October in a bid to cool stubborn price pressures, China's state-owned Chinalco
SUP 1 RES 1
said growing global copper consumption and strong fundamentals were expected to support the 415.2 421.8
price this year. There are concerns that rising stocks held by investors as collateral in China, not SUP 2 RES 2
immediately visible to the market, could significantly reduce an expected copper deficit that has 412.1 425.3
catapulted prices to record highs this year. For today's session market is looking to take support at
SUP 3 RES 3
418.6, a break below could see a test of 418.1 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at
420, a move above could see prices testing 420.9. 408.6 428.4

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OPEN
107.9
HIGH
108.9
FUTURE

LOW
106.05
CLOSE
106.35
% CNG
-1.46
VOLUME
CX ZINC F

24979
OI
8442
RE CNG
-1.55

INTRADAY LEVELS
Zinc yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.24% down at 106.25 as US dollar
index moved below 76 during the Qingming Festival,
Festival supporting LME zinc prices.
prices US ISM PP
P.P. 107
107.1
1
MC

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March unexpectedly fell, weighing down the US dollar
SUP 1 RES 1
index. LME zinc prices struggled at USD 2,400/mt during the holiday. China’s central bank
105.3 108.2
announced yesterday it would raise interest rates for financial institutions from April 6th. The
one-year deposit and lending interest rates were raised by 0.25% respectively. In this SUP 2 RES 2
context, LME zinc prices overnight fell from USD 2,400/mt to close at USD 2,386/mt, with 104.3 110.0
prices standing at the 5-day moving average. For today's session market is looking to take SUP 3 RES 3
support at 106.1, a break below could see a test of 105.9 and where as resistance is now 102.5 111.0
lik l b 106 5 b ld i i 106 8

OPEN
1138.1
TURE

HIGH
1147.9
LOW
1122.5
CKEL FUT

CLOSE
1134.5
% CNG
-0.43
VOLUME
46026
OI
13981
MCX NIC

RE CNG
-4.9

INTRADAY LEVELS
Nickel yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.28% down at 1150.6 tracking LME
nickel LME nickel for delivery in three months opened at USD 26,450/mt and closed at USD P.P. 1135
25,470/mt, up by USD 20/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 25,625/mt and the SUP 1 RES 1
lowest price at USD 25,050/mt. LME nickel prices largely moved below all day moving averages, and
1122 1147
prices failed to stand above USD 25,700/mt, with strong resistance ahead. China's Central bank
6 with one-year benchmark deposit and
decided to raise RMB bench market interest rate from April 6, SUP 2 RES 2
lending rate up by 0.25 percentage points respectively. For today's session market is looking to take 1110 1160
support at 1148.4, a break below could see a test of 1146.2 and where as resistance is now likely to SUP 3 RES 3
be seen at 1153.2, a move above could see prices testing 1155.8.
1097 1173

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URE
OPEN
116.9
HIGH
ALUMINIUM FUTU

117.5
LOW
116.4
CLOSE
116.65
% CNG
-0.26
VOLUME
3294
OI
2065
RE CNG
-0.3

INTRADAY LEVELS
Aluminium yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.04% down at 116.95 after
MCX A

People's
People s Bank of China announced on Tuesday that it would raise the benchmark one-year borrowing PP
P.P. 116
116.9
9
and lending interest rates by 25 basis points beginning April 6th. This was the second time the
central bank raised the benchmark interest rates in 2011, an indication of serious inflationary
SUP 1 RES 1
pressures in China, and China’s CPI growth in March is expected to exceed 5%. In response, the US 116.2 117.3
dollar index climbed to 76.152. Meanwhile, the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) SUP 2 RES 2
announced that the non-manufacturing index in March was 57.3, lower than the forecast of 59.5, 115.8 118.0
weighing down the US dollar index. LME aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly between USD 2,620-
SUP 3 RES 3
2,650/mt on Monday and Tuesday. For today's session market is looking to take support at 116.9, a
break below could see a test of 116.8 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 117, a 115.1 118.4

OPEN
UTURE

191.7
HIGH
193.4
LOW
189.4
T.GAS FU

CLOSE
190
% CNG
-1.42
VOLUME
24217
OI
12271
RE CNG
MCX NAT

-2.7

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -1.42% down at 190 amid
indications of decreased demand as forecasts showed mild temperatures in key gas-heating areas in P.P. 190.9
the U.S. next week. Earlier in the day, the Commodity Weather Group said that it expected warmer
than normal temperatures across most of the U.S. Southwest through much of the East Coast
SUP 1 RES 1
through mid-April. According to the weather group, the recent cold front that had given the market a 188.5 192.5
M

boost was expected to subside in the coming days, likely signaling an end to the late season burst of SUP 2 RES 2
gas-heating demand. Weather service provider AccuWeather said that New York was forecast to 186.9 194.9
have a high temperature of 66 degrees Fahrenheit on April 11, seven degrees above average. For
SUP 3 RES 3
today's session market is looking to take support at 188.5, a break below could see a test of 186.9
and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 192.5, a move above could see prices testing 184.5 196.5

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ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX


MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT
JUNE 21162 297 597 MAY 57527 644 1301
AUG 21459 300 JULY 58171 657
OCT 21759 SEPT 58828
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday
ended at 297, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 644, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a positive node and settled 1.03% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 297 - 332. 1.47% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 631 -
745.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX


MONTH RATE APRIL MAY JUNE MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE
APRIL 4793 58 108 APRIL 418.35 6.05
MAY 4851 50 JUNE 424.4
JUNE 4901
Spread between crude MAR & APR contracts yesterday Spread between copper APR & JUN contracts yesterday
MARKET

ended at 58, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 6.05, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
0.38% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 55 -0.16% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
65. 6.05 - 6.65.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX


SPREAD M

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY


APRIL 106.35 1.25 APRIL 1134.5 8.1
MAY 107.6 MAY 1142.6

Spread between zinc APR & MAY contracts yesterday Spread between nickel APR & MAY contracts yesterday
ended at 1.25, we have seen yesterday that the zinc ended at 8.10, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
1.46% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 0.43% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
1.25. 8.10 - 8.5.
S

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX


MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY
APRIL 190 5.2 APRIL 1039.8 -73.4
MAY 195.2 MAY 966.4

Spread between natural gas APR & MAY contracts Spread between menthol oil APR & MAY contracts
yesterday ended at 5.20, we have seen yesterday that the yesterday ended at -73.40, we have seen yesterday that
natural gas market had traded with a negative node and the menthol oil market had traded with a negative node
settled -1.42% down. Spread yesterday traded in the and settled -1.49% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of 4.9 - 5.2. range of -98 to -73.4.

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DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
AL

2:30pm EUR Final GDP q/q 0.003 0.003


ONOMICA

3:30pm EUR German Factory Orders m/m 0.006 0.029


8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.3M 2.9M
DATA

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
Wed 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
ECO

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

Gold demand in India will continue to grow and is likely to reach 1,200 tonnes or approximately Rs 2.5 trillion by
2020 at current price levels, according to a research by World Gold Council (WGC). "The rise of India as an economic
power will continue to have gold at its heart. India already occupies a unique position in the world gold market, and
as private wealth in India surges over the next ten years, so will Indian demand for gold," WGC Managing Director,
India and the Middle East, Ajay Mitra said in a statement here. Indian gold demand has grown 25 per cent despite
400 per cent price rise of the rupee in the last decade, it said, adding that the research reaffirmed the country's
status as a key driver of global gold demand. 'India: Heart of Gold' is the second in a series of WGC research with a
focus on India, which includes forecasts from the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE). CMIE Managing
Director and CEO Mahesh Vyas said, "Our macroeconomic forecast to 2020 shows India is poised for a very strong
SE

period of economic growth and this has significant , positive implications for all forms of gold purchasing in India."
U CAN US

Wheat arrivals in northern markets, including Haryana, may be delayed by a week this year. The Haryana agriculture
officials maintained that procurement is likely to get delayed by seven days. The normal wheat procurement
operations in terminal market commences from April 1 and continues till May-end. According to agriculture experts,
good rainfall this year and gradual rise in temperature delayed crop maturity, thereby affecting the arrival in markets.
EWS YOU

L
Less rainfall
i f ll and
d hi
high
h temperatures usually
ll ffavour early
l ripening
i i off wheat
h crop, b
but this
hi year temperatures h have not
risen as was required. Wheat Research Institute (Karnal) Director S S Singh said the prolonged weather spell and
good weather conditions might have affected the procurement. However, the delay in arrival is unlikely to affect the
productivity of the crop. Central government has targeted an estimated 82 million tonnes wheat production this year,
but Singh said the production could exceed the estimate as the area under wheat this year increased this year
compared to last year. However, Haryana state food and civil supplies department officials said provisions have been
made to procure wheat from terminal markets from April 1, which would continue till May 31.
NE

Indian overnight cash rate dropped to 6.75/80 percent on Tuesday, from its more than five-month highs hit on
Thursday, as demand for funds wane at the start of the new fiscal year. Banks were comfortable with their liquidity
situations after heavy borrowing before the holidays as they prepare for the $2.7 billion debt sale this week. one-day
inter-bank cash rate was at 6.70/75 percent, as against Thursday's close of 9.25/9.30 percent, its highest since
29 2010,
October 29, 2010 ahead of a couple of trading holidays and the last day of the financial year.
year

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company nor itsit employees
l are responsible
ibl ffor the
th ttrading
di P
Profit(es)
fit( ) & loss(es)
l ( ) arising
i i due
d tto th
the ttrader.
d Th
The commodities
diti and
d
derivatives discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors falling under different categories
and jurisdictions. All futures trading entail significant risk, which should be fully understood prior to trading.

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