’

Daily Commodity Market Update as on Monday, April 11, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
GOLD 21355 21459 21345 21412 0.32 Bullion rose climbed to a new record level in global
SILVER 59421 60888 59421 60483 1.65 markets as concerns over accelerating inflation, financial
SPOT $ turmoil in Europe and fighting in Libya bolstered their
GOLD 1474.7 1476.35 1471.2 1473.85 -0.06 demand as a safe haven.
SILVER 40.98 41.59 40.92 41.48 1.57
PLATINUM 1810.5 1806.5 1803.75 1808.74 0.14

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Crude oil ended higher as a decline in the dollar spurred a
CRUDE 4974 5098 4974 5030 1.31 broad rally in commodities. Fears of prolonged supply
N.GAS 178.9 179 176.4 177.9 -0.67 outages in Libya persisted as fighting raged in the North
African oil producer. Natural gas continued their slide as
SPOT $ strong production is expected to overwhelm tepid spring
demand.
CRUDE 110.32 113.18 110.11 112.79 2.238941

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
COPPER 440 3
440.3 445 15
445.15 439 55
439.55 443 15
443.15 0 71
0.71 Base metals rose as reports signaling continued economic
ZINC 111.15 115.5 111.15 113.4 2.07 expansion fed speculation global growth will sustain
NICKEL 1220 1246.5 1217.6 1233.5 1.24 demand for industrial metals.
LEAD 127.8 135.35 127.65 131.85 3.15
ALUMINIUM 119.2 122 119.15 120 0.71

LME LME STOCK

COPPER 9900 9930 9885 9899.75 0.05 COPPER 1800 444175
ZINC 2520 2545 2515 2528 0.12 ZINC 1150 735975
NICKEL 27550 2717 27550 27800 1 NICKEL -528 121224
LEAD 2870 2875 2845 2860 0.32 LEAD -575 277550
ALUMINIUM 2710 2875 2705 2714.75 0.18 ALUMINIUM -2700 4581775

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
19382.91 5805.4 2321.18 1328.17 8483.94 12380.05 9715.34 3053.24 2122.47 24419.13 74.92
-0.34 -0.74 -0.5 -0.4 -0.06 -0.24 -0.54 0.82 -0.26 0.09 -0.06

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 OPEN
21355
HIGH
21459
FUTURE

LOW
21345
CLOSE
21412
% CNG
0.32
VOLUME
X GOLD F

3721
OI
10878
RE CNG
68

INTRADAY LEVELS
MCX

Gold rose as a weaker dollar, the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown and inflation worries
lift d precious
lifted i metals
t l iin a b
broad
d commodities
diti rally.
ll G Gold
ld was sett ffor its
it biggest
bi t weekly
kl gain
i in
i four
f PP
P.P. 21405
months, drawing support from renewed euro zone sovereign debt fears amid Portugal's financial SUP 1 RES 1
crisis and inflation jitters as crude oil and corn hit new highs this week. With the expected future
21352 21466
inflation being higher in this low interest rate environment, investors are more inclined to have some
contributions to commodities as an inflation hedge. Main buyer India, which is the midst of the busy SUP 2 RES 2
wedding season, was on the sidelines after prices surged to a record.Now support for the gold MCX 21291 21519
is seen at 21352 and below could see a test of 21291. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 21466, SUP 3 RES 3
a move above could see prices testing 21519.
21238 21580

OPEN
59421
TURE

HIGH
60888
LOW
59421
LVER FUT

CLOSE
60483
% CNG
1.65
VOLUME
16707
OI
16136
MCX SIL

RE CNG
999

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver continued its relentless record-breaking journey on the strength of hectic speculative trading
P.P. 60264
and encouraging global cues. Silver prices were also got support as a surge in oil and other
commodity prices threatens to bolster already rising inflation. The gold-to-silver ratio fell to a 28- SUP 1 RES 1
year low near 36 on Friday. One would expect silver to outperform in this environment because it 59640 61107
bears a higher
g risk than ggold on a volatility
y basis. IShares Silver Trust said its holdings
g hit another SUP 2 RES 2
record at 11,242.89 tonnes by April 8 from 11,192.80 tonnes on April 7. Now support for the silver is
58797 61731
seen at 59640 and below could see a test of 58797. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 61107, a
move above could see prices testing 61731. SUP 3 RES 3
58173 62574

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 OPEN
4974
HIGH
X CRUDE FUTURE
E

5098
LOW
4974
CLOSE
5030
% CNG
1.31
VOLUME
12221
OI
17311
RE CNG
66

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude oil ended higher as a decline in the dollar spurred a broad rally in commodities. Fears of
MCX

PP
P.P. 5034
prolonged supply outages in Libya persisted as fighting raged in the North African oil producer.
Worries about possible supply cuts in the wider Middle East were unabated with protests flaring SUP 1 RES 1
across the Arab world. Worries over OPEC supplies offset demand worries exacerbated by a 7.4- 4970 5094
magnitude earthquake struck Japan, which is recovering from last month's devastating quake and SUP 2 RES 2
tsunami that crippled a nuclear power plant and damaged some refineries. Now support for the
4910 5158
crude is seen at 4970 and below could see a test of 4910. Resistance is now likely to be seen at
5094, a move above could see prices testing 5158. SUP 3 RES 3
4846 5218

OPEN
440.3
TURE

HIGH
445.15
LOW
439.55
PPER FUT

CLOSE
443.15
% CNG
0.71
VOLUME
10483
OI
17931
MCX COP

RE CNG
3.15

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper ended up as the dollar weakened and investor demand for the metal increased with inflation
P.P. 442.6
fears mounting. Copper scrap arrivals into China are likely to rise in late April and May after
importers placed more spot orders in the past month as domestic stocks fell. But a big 4.8 percent SUP 1 RES 1
withdrawal in copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange 440.1 445.7
pointed to healthier demand p
p prospects
p into the seasonally
y better second q quarter. Copper
pp has SUP 2 RES 2
touched a low of Rs 439.55 a kg after opening at Rs 440.3, and last traded at Rs443.15.For today
437.0 448.2
market is looking for the support at 440.1, a break below could see a test of 437 and where as
resistance is now likely to be seen at 445.7, a move above could see prices testing 448.2. SUP 3 RES 3
434.5 451.3

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 OPEN
111.15
HIGH
115.5
FUTURE

LOW
111.15
CLOSE
113.4
% CNG
2.07
VOLUME
CX ZINC F

5394
OI
7040
RE CNG
2.35

INTRADAY LEVELS
Zinc climbed on optimism
p global
g economic growth
g will sustain demand for industrial metals.
PP
P.P. 113
113.4
4
MC

Zinc shortages predicted for around the middle of the decade due to mine closures are likely
to be less acute than feared as miners rush to bring new projects on-stream to benefit from SUP 1 RES 1
soaring prices for co-product silver. Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved 111.2 115.6
2.07%. Market has opened at 111.15 & made a low of 111.15 versus the day high of 115.5. SUP 2 RES 2
The total volume for the day was at 5394 lots and the open interest was at 7040.Now support 109.0 117.7
for the zinc is seen at 111.2 and below could see a test of 109. Resistance is now likely to be
SUP 3 RES 3
seen at 115.6, a move above could see prices testing 117.7.
106.9 119.9

OPEN
1220
TURE

HIGH
1246.5
LOW
1217.6
CKEL FUT

CLOSE
1233.5
% CNG
1.24
VOLUME
6489
OI
7281
MCX NIC

RE CNG
15.3

INTRADAY LEVELS
Nickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 1.24% up at 1233.5 supported by a
P.P. 1233
firming trend in the global markets amid increased offtake by alloy-makers. For a period of one week
the prices are expected to register decent results for its investors. Some support had been seen SUP 1 RES 1
from the LME stock also which came down by -528mt, the total stock at LME is now at 121224mt. 1219 1247
Nickel has touched a low of Rs 1217.6 a kg g after opening
p g at Rs.1220,, and last traded at Rs SUP 2 RES 2
1233.5.For today market is looking for the support at 1218.6, a break below could see a test of
1204 1261
1203.6 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1247.5, a move above could see prices
testing 1261.4. SUP 3 RES 3
1190 1276

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 URE
OPEN
119.2
HIGH
ALUMINIUM FUTU

122
LOW
119.15
CLOSE
120
% CNG
0.71
VOLUME
1275
OI
1957
RE CNG
0.85

INTRADAY LEVELS
Russia exported 533,300 metric tons of aluminum in January-February, 4.9% more than in the
MCX A

PP
P.P. 120
120.4
4
corresponding period last year, the federal customs service reported. Aluminium yesterday traded
with the positive node and settled 0.71% up at 120. Some support had been seen from the LME SUP 1 RES 1
stock also which came down by -2700mt, the total stock at LME is now at 4581775mt. In yesterday's 118.8 121.6
trading session aluminium has touched the low of 119.15 after opening at 119.2, and finally settled SUP 2 RES 2
at 120. For today's session market is looking to take support at 118.8, a break below could see a
117.5 123.2
test of 117.5 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 121.6, a move above could see
prices testing 123.2. SUP 3 RES 3
115.9 124.5

OPEN
UTURE

178.9
HIGH
179
LOW
176.4
T.GAS FU

CLOSE
177.9
% CNG
-0.67
VOLUME
2127
OI
15646
RE CNG
MCX NAT

-1.2

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas continued their slide as strong production is expected to overwhelm tepid spring
demand. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer than normal through much of the eastern two- P.P. 177.8
thirds of the U.S. into early next week with mostly average seasonal weather thereafter, likely
leaving little demand for heating or cooling. With the arrival of spring's dip in weather-driven gas
SUP 1 RES 1
needs, the market has turned its attention to the robust North American production that is widely 176.5 179.1
M

expected to quickly replenish U.S. inventories. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the U.S. SUP 2 RES 2
fell by two this week to 889, the first decline in three weeks. Natural Gas yesterday we have seen 175.2 180.4
that market has moved -0.67%. Market has opened at 178.9 & made a low of 176.4 versus the day
SUP 3 RES 3
high of 179. The total volume for the day was at 2127 lots and the open interest was at 15646.Now
support for the Natural Gas is seen at 176.5 and below could see a test of 175.2. Resistance is now 173.9 181.7

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 ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT
JUNE 21412 300 630 MAY 60483 961 1899
AUG 21712 330 JULY 61444 938
OCT 22042 SEPT 62382
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday
ended at 300, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 961, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.32% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 293 - 304. 1.65% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 862 -
1177.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY JUNE MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE
APRIL 5030 57 106 APRIL 443.15 6.1
MAY 5087 49 JUNE 449.25
JUNE 5136
Spread between crude MAR & APR contracts yesterday Spread between copper APR & JUN contracts yesterday
MARKET

ended at 57, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 6.1, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a positive node and settled 1.31% market had traded with a positive node and settled
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 57 - 125. 0.71% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 5.95 -
6.2.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX

SPREAD M

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY

APRIL 113.4 1.2 APRIL 1233.5 8.1
MAY 114.6 MAY 1241.6

Spread between zinc APR & MAY contracts yesterday
ended at 1.2, we have seen yesterday that the zinc
market had traded with a positive node and settled 2.07%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.3.
S
Spread between nickel APR & MAY contracts yesterday
ended at 8.10, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a positive node and settled
1.24% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 7.50 -
8.4.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY
APRIL 177.9 4.8 APRIL 1047.1 -58.8
MAY 182.7 MAY 988.3

Spread between natural gas APR & MAY contracts
yesterday ended at 4.80, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a negative node and
settled -0.67% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of 4.7 - 5.
Spread between menthol oil APR & MAY contracts
yesterday ended at -58.80, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a positive node
and settled 0.32% up. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of -58.8 to -57.4.

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 DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
AL

12:15pm EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.005 0.01

ONOMICA

1:30pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.014 -0.015

2:45pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks 0 0
DATA

8:30pm USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks 0 0

9:00pm EUR Buba President Weber Speaks 0 0
9:45pm USD FOMC Member Yellen Speaks 0 0
Mon 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
ECO

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

ANRPC members, representing 92% of global rubber production, back in February forecast output will reach 9.7
million tons. Association of production of natural rubber (ANRPC) estimates the global rubber output in 2011 will
reach 10.06 million tons, higher than expected 9.7 million tons brought before a do. Trong announced recently,
ANRPC said total global rubber output this year will be higher than 6.2% compared to 9.47 million tonnes the
previous season. Source countries increased by expanding the area of cultivation, plus more capacity for latex,
approximately 43 kg per hectare. ANRPC members, representing 92% of global rubber production, back in February
forecast output will reach 9.7 million tons. Rubber production in Thailand, accounting for 34% of total global
production, forecast at 3.43 million tons, 5.5% higher than last year, thanks to the area reached 110,000 hectares.
ANRPC members include Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, China, India, Ivory Coast, Philippines, Singapore,
Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The members account for 92% of total exports and 48% of total world demand for rubber.
SE

Natural rubber prices are now down 12% compared with a record of over 6 per kg in February due to economic
U CAN US

worries by escalating violence in the Middle East and natural disasters in Japan.
Japan

Expecting bumper wheat production in most states, government agencies are targeting procurement of 26.3 million
tonnes (mt) of the foodgrain against the 22.5 mt collected last year. Senior Food Corporation of India (FCI) officials
said the early comparative figures may vary due to various reasons but they expect to achieve the target
comfortably. Of the 26.3 mt, a substantial 21.2 mt is estimated to be lifted from Punjab (10.7 mt), Haryana (6.5 mt)
EWS YOU

and Uttar Pradesh (4 mt). Punjab and Haryana, which contribute close to 70 per cent to the national pool of wheat,
are likely to increase their contribution this year. Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh were the first to start the process by
March-end followed by Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. In Punjab, wheat procurement was supposed to start on April 1
but there will be a delay following late arrivals. Over the past week, agencies have purchased 434,000 tonnes of
wheat from centres across India under the decentralised procurement scheme, against the 763,000 tonnes in the
corresponding period last year. Punjab, which had contributed 10.2 mt to the central pool last year, is expected to
make an additional contribution of 500,000 tonnes. Haryana is expected to add 200,000 tonnes more to the national
pool over last year’s 6.3 million tonnes to 6.5 million tonnes.
NE

Indian federal bond yields edged lower in afternoon trade on Friday as traders bet on bullish cut-offs at the auction of
the new 10-year and 7-year papers to be auctioned as a part of the 120-billion-rupee bond sale. The government is
selling 120 billion rupees ($2.7 billion) of bonds on Friday, kicking off its borrowing programme for the 2011/12 fiscal
year. India may sell the new 10-year bond maturing in 2021 at 7.85 percent, the 7-year paper at 7.87 percent and
the 8.30 percent 2040 bonds at 8.38 percent. However, some traders said they are now expecting the 10-year paper
to be sold at around 7.82
7.82-7.83
7.83 percent levels. the yield on the most-actively
most actively traded 8.13 percent, 2022 bond was
down 1 basis point at 8.04 percent while the second-most traded 8.08 percent, 2022 bond was steady at 8.05
percent. * The less liquid 7.80 percent 2020 bond, the previous benchmark, was down 1 basis point at 7.96 percent.

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