Daily Commodity Market Update as on Thursday, May 05, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
GOLD 22380 22445 22014 22373 -1.09 Gold ended down as concerns that China would introduce
further monetary tightening measures to curb inflation
SILVER 63100 63738 59066 63347 -5.5
dampened demand for the precious metal. Silver prices
SPOT $
fell heavily after the CME Group hiked margin
GOLD 1516.8 1518.45 1513.55 1513.55 0.31 requirement on COMEX silver again
SILVER 39.32 39.43 38.82 39.23 -0.46
PLATINUM 1819.24 1823.5 1812.5 1815.75 -0.21

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Crude oil prices fell hit by a build in U.S. crude stocks and
CRUDE 4972 4972 4856 4875 -2.05 a broad decline in commodities after weak U.S. economic
N.GAS 208.4 210.4 205.8 209 -1.21 data and concerns over tighter Chinese monetary policy.
Natural gas ended down as forecasts showed moderating
SPOT $ weather in the southern and eastern U.S. states next
week, dampening demand for the fuel.
CRUDE 110.68 111.22 108.48 109.24 -1.301048

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

MCX
Base metal ended lower as concerns about inflation-
COPPER 421.5 421.5 411.65 423.15 -2.57
fighting measures in China and disappointing U.S. data
ZINC 101.3 102 97.5 100.85 -2.54
pointed to less demand from the world's top-two
NICKEL 1212.2 1216.6 1154.2 1217.8 -5.18 consumers.
LEAD 112.5 113.05 110.3 113 -2.22
ALUMINIUM 123.6 124.1 121.7 123.6 -0.98

LME LME STOCK

COPPER 9097.5 9107.75 9061 9101 -0.08 COPPER 125 463925
ZINC 2190 2205 2173 2200 -0.86 ZINC 500 822350
NICKEL 25750 2757 25715 25725 0.29 NICKEL -1398 116376
LEAD 2445 2455 2400 2453.5 -0.65 LEAD 800 311050
ALUMINIUM 2743 2455 2735 2748 -0.36 ALUMINIUM -5375 4606000

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
18534.38 5537.2 2387.51 1347.32 8506.61 12723.58 10004.2 2861.09 2180.64 23280.32 73.03
0 -0.5 -0.22 -0.69 -0.91 -0.66 0 -0.17 -0.91 -0.15 -0.01

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 OPEN
22380
HIGH
22445
MCX GOLD FUTURE

LOW
22014
CLOSE
22373
% CNG
-1.09
VOLUME
41953
OI
12918
RE CNG
-242

INTRADAY LEVELS
Gold after opening little higher dropped lower and extended losses closed at -1.09 that is at 22131
down for a third straight session, and gold faltered as precious metals came under pressure to P.P. 22197
correct after a strong rally in the last few weeks. Beyond the correction, gold and silver are expected SUP 1 RES 1
to resume their upward trend, as worries about rising inflation and ongoing unrest in the Middle East
21948 22379
and North Africa, as well as low U.S. interest rates may continue to drive investors to these precious
metals as per market. The People’s Bank of China said in its quarterly monetary policy report SUP 2 RES 2
published on Tuesday that the country’s economy faced “increasing pressure from imported 21766 22628
inflation.” Now gold is getting support at 21948 and below could see a test of 21766 level, And SUP 3 RES 3
resistance is now likely to be seen at 22379, a move above could see prices testing 22628.
21517 22810

OPEN
63100
MCX SILVER FUTURE

HIGH
63738
LOW
59066
CLOSE
63347
% CNG
-5.5
VOLUME
141401
OI
13905
RE CNG
-3301

INTRADAY LEVELS
Silver fell by almost by -5.5 settled at 60046 heading for the biggest three-day drop since 2008 on a
report that Soros Fund Management LLC sold precious-metal assets. Soros Fund Management sold
P.P. 60950
some holdings because of a reduced risk of deflation, according to the Wall Street Journal, which
cited unidentified people close to the matter. Michael Vachon, a spokesman for Soros, declined to SUP 1 RES 1
comment. Silver futures fell as much as 5 percent to $40.465 an ounce on the Comex, for a three- 58162 62834
day decline of 14 percent. Margin requirements were raised 38 percent in since April 26. Some SUP 2 RES 2
small, speculative players had to trim their silver positions as they couldn’t afford to pay for such
56278 65622
margins, for long-term players with fundamental views, this may be a good time to get in for both
silver. Now silver is getting support at 58162 and below could see a test of 56278 level, And SUP 3 RES 3
resistance is now likely to be seen at 62834, a move above could see prices testing 65622. 53490 67506

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 OPEN
4972
HIGH
MCX CRUDE FUTURE

4972
LOW
4856
CLOSE
4875
% CNG
-2.05
VOLUME
116342
OI
15190
RE CNG
-100

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude oil extended losses dropping to a two-week low after a government report showed that U.S.
crude oil inventories rose significantly more than expected last week. The US EIA said in its weekly
P.P. 4901
report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose significantly more-than-expected in the week ended April
29, increasing by 3.4 million barrels, after increasing by 6.2mln bls in the preceding week. Market SUP 1 RES 1
had expected U.S. crude oil inventories to rise by 1.9 million barrels. Total U.S. crude oil inventories 4830 4946
for the week ended April 29 stood at 366.5 million barrels, remaining above the upper limit of the SUP 2 RES 2
average range for this time of year. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days
4785 5017
is currently indicating 45.48, where as 50DMA is at 4854.66 and crude is trading above the same
and getting support at 4830 and below could see a test of 4785 level, And resistance is now likely to SUP 3 RES 3
be seen at 4946, a move above could see prices testing 5017. 4714 5062

OPEN
421.5
MCX COPPER FUTURE

HIGH
421.5
LOW
411.65
CLOSE
423.15
% CNG
-2.57
VOLUME
94692
OI
23866
RE CNG
-10.6

INTRADAY LEVELS
Copper yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -2.57% down at 412.55 declines to
Seven-Week Low on China Tightening Concern, the world’s largest consumer of the metal, may take
P.P. 415.2
more steps to tighten credit. Copper had been trading in a strong inverse correlation with the dollar,
but the link has weakened recently and on Wednesday both the metal and the currency fell. Prices SUP 1 RES 1
where under pressure as china's roaring economy will slow a touch this year, with inflation staying 409.0 418.8
stubbornly above the government's 4 percent target. With price pressures likely to prove stubborn, SUP 2 RES 2
economists expect China to pull a range of levers in coming months to control prices: interest rates,
405.4 425.1
the reserve requirement ratio, and the yuan. For today's session market is looking to take support at
409, a break below could see a test of 405.4 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at SUP 3 RES 3
418.8, a move above could see prices testing 425.1. 399.1 428.7

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 OPEN
101.3
HIGH
102
MCX ZINC FUTURE

LOW
97.5
CLOSE
100.85
% CNG
-2.54
VOLUME
17284
OI
12331
RE CNG
-2.5

INTRADAY LEVELS
Zinc yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -2.54% down at 98.35 tracking LME zinc
prices overnight mostly moved between USD 2,220-2,250/mt during the Asian trading hours, but US P.P. 99.3
non-manufacturing index for April was 52.8, the lowest level since August 2008. Meanwhile, the US SUP 1 RES 1
added 179,000 jobs during April, also lower than the forecast. Investors were worried about the
96.6 101.1
outlook of US economy due to weak economic data, weighing down LME zinc prices to USD
2,168/mt, with prices finally closing at USD 2,200/mt. In yesterday's trading session zinc has SUP 2 RES 2
touched the low of 97.5 after opening at 101.3, and finally settled at 98.35. For today's session 94.8 103.8
market is looking to take support at 96.6, a break below could see a test of 94.8 and where as SUP 3 RES 3
resistance is now likely to be seen at 101.1, a move above could see prices testing 103.8.
92.1 105.6

OPEN
1212
MCX NICKEL FUTURE

HIGH
1217
LOW
1154
CLOSE
1217.8
% CNG
-5.18
VOLUME
42390
OI
6203
RE CNG
-60

INTRADAY LEVELS
Nickel yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -5.18% down at 1157.8 with line with
LME nickel for delivery in three months opened at USD 27,200/mt and closed at USD 25,725/mt,
P.P. 1176
down by USD 1,378/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 27,200/mt and the lowest
price at USD 25,725/mt. LME base metal prices largely plunged on Wednesday, due to demand SUP 1 RES 1
concern and from weaker-than-expected US economic data. LME nickel prices largely moved stably 1136 1198
during the Asian trading hours, but plunged by 3.9% to a 1.5-month low from downbeat US SUP 2 RES 2
economic data during the European trading hours. LME nickel prices tumbled by 5.1% during the
1114 1239
European trading hours on Wednesday, suggesting strong power of shorts. For today's session
market is looking to take support at 1135.8, a break below could see a test of 1113.8 and where as SUP 3 RES 3
resistance is now likely to be seen at 1198.2, a move above could see prices testing 1238.6. 1073 1261

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MCX ALUMINIUM FUTURE
OPEN
123.6
HIGH
124.1
LOW
121.7
CLOSE
123.6
% CNG
-0.98
VOLUME
3351
OI
3352
RE CNG
-1.2

INTRADAY LEVELS
Aluminium yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.98% down at 122.4 after ISM
announced that the non-manufacturing index was 52.8% during April, down 4.5% from March
P.P. 122.7
levels, setting a record low since August 2010. Meanwhile, ADP Employer Services announced that
employment at private companies in the US increased by 179,000 in April, lower than the expected SUP 1 RES 1
level. The weak economic data improved investor demand for risk aversion, and the US dollar index 121.4 123.8
opened at 73.08 and closed at 73.13, up 0.06%. The stronger US dollar index and lower crude oil SUP 2 RES 2
prices weighed down LME aluminum prices, with LME prices falling significantly following other base
120.3 125.1
metals prices. For today's session market is looking to take support at 121.4, a break below could
see a test of 120.3 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 123.8, a move above could SUP 3 RES 3
see prices testing 125.1. 119.0 126.2

OPEN
MCX NAT.GAS FUTURE

208.4
HIGH
210.4
LOW
205.8
CLOSE
209
% CNG
-1.21
VOLUME
19478
OI
4936
RE CNG
-2.5

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -1.21% down at 206.5 in the line of
expectation hitting a three-day low as forecasts showed moderating weather in the southern and
P.P. 207.6
eastern states next week, dampening demand for the fuel. The Commodity Weather Group said that
it expected normal or slightly below-normal temperatures in the southern U.S. states from May 8 to SUP 1 RES 1
May 13. Weather forecasts had previously called for extremely warmer-than-normal temperatures 204.7 209.3
during that period. The industry group added that warmer air will probably be absent across most of SUP 2 RES 2
the U.S. through May 10. The report was expected to show that U.S. natural gas inventories
203.0 212.2
increased by 68bcf, after adding 31 billion cubic feet in the preceding week. For today's session
market is looking to take support at 204.7, a break below could see a test of 203 and where as SUP 3 RES 3
resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.3, a move above could see prices testing 212.2. 200.1 213.9

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 ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX

MONTH RATE JUNE AUG OCT MONTH RATE JULY SEPT DEC
JUNE 22131 295 612 JULY 60046 409 1023
AUG 22426 317 SEPT 60455 614
OCT 22743 DEC 61069
Spread between Gold JUN & AUG contracts yesterday Spread between Silver JUL & SEP contracts yesterday
ended at 295, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 409, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
1.09% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 287 5.5% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 56 -
- 297. 602.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE JULY MONTH RATE JUNE AUG
MAY 4875 54 105 JUNE 412.55 5.65
JUNE 4929 51 AUG 418.2
JULY 4980
Spread between crude APR & MAY contracts yesterday Spread between copper JUN & AUG contracts yesterday
SPREAD MARKET

ended at 54, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 5.65, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
2.05% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 28 -2.57% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 4 -
55. 5.85.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 98.35 1.45 MAY 1157.8 10.2
JUNE 99.8 JUNE 1168

Spread between zinc MAY & JUN contracts yesterday Spread between nickel MAY & JUN contracts yesterday
ended at 1.45, we have seen yesterday that the zinc ended at 10.20, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a negative node and settled -
2.54% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 0.6 -5.18% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
2. 6.80 - 10.8.

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX

MONTH RATE MAY JUNE MONTH RATE MAY JUNE
MAY 206.5 4.9 MAY 1023.1 -83.4
JUNE 211.4 JUNE 939.7

Spread between natural gas MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at 4.90, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a negative node and
settled -1.21% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of 4.9 - 5.5.
Spread between menthol oil MAY & JUN contracts
yesterday ended at -83.40, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a negative node
and settled -2.21% down. Spread yesterday traded in the
range of -96.5 to -78.6.

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 DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
ECONOMICAL

1:30am USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks 0 0

3:30pm EUR German Factory Orders m/m 0.004 0.024
5:15pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.0125 0.0125
DATA

6:00pm EUR ECB Press Conference 0 0

6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 415K 429K
6:00pm USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 0.011 0.026
Thu 6:00pm USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 0.008 -0.006
6:45pm USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks 0 0
7:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 0 0
8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 68B 31B
10:15pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks 0 0
10:45pm USD FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks 0 0
0 0 0 0

The government has abolished import duty on sugar till June even as the country's domestic output is set to exceed
domestic demand and mills are exporting the sweetener. According to a notification issued by the Central Board of
Excise and Customs dated April 15, the import duty on sugar has been brought down to zero for raw and refined
varieties till June 30. The temporary measure would help alleviate any unforeseen shortage considering that
sugarcane crushing season almost ends by June and the actual sugar output for the ongoing 2010-11 season, which
runs from October-September, would be known by then. Sugar import was allowed duty-free till March. Since the
duty-free notification has lapsed on March 31, the duty automatically reverted back to 60% from April 1. Import
duty on sugar was abolished in early 2009 to boost domestic supply in view of the production dip in the 2008-09 and
2009-10 sugar year. The country had imported about six million tonne of sugar to meet the shortfall. Sugar
production in India, the world's second largest producer, had fallen to 14.7 million tonne in 2008-09 against the
NEWS YOU CAN USE

annual domestic demand of 22 million tonne. In 2009-10, the output improved to 19 million tonne, but was still short
of the actual demand. However, in the current sugar year, the production is expected to outstrip demand at 24.5
million tonne and the country has started exporting the sweetener.

Global production of natural rubber (NR) is projected to fall this year on bad climatic conditions. The total supply of
the commodity, based on the trends since the beginning of this year, is likely to be 10.02 million tonnes (mt), as
against the earlier projection of 10.06 mt. The total supply from ANRPC (Association of Natural Rubber Producing
Countries) nations is expected to rise only 5.8 per cent this year as against 6.2 per cent projected earlier. The
production estimates were lowered as Thailand, the world’s largest producer, may have a lower production of 3.43 mt
from the earlier 3.38 mt, followed by a low production in China also. The initial trends of 2011 indicate slight
improvement in production in India and Indonesia. In India, production is expected to touch 902,000 tonnes as
against the earlier projection of 884,000 tonnes and in Indonesia production is likely to increase to 2.97 mt from the
earlier 2.96 mt. The latest concern over the supply is mainly caused by unseasonal heavy rainfall and floods in
Thailand and Malaysia during March and April. The concern over supply, rise in demand in China coupled with a set
back to the dollar indicate a strong market for NR in the remaining eight months of this year.

Bond yields and swap rates stayed firm on Wednesday afternoon a day after a sharper-than-expected rate increase in
key policy rates and ahead of a 120-billion-rupee bond sale later this week. The 10-year benchmark bond yield was
at 8.25 percent, up 2 basis points (bps) from its previous close. The government will sell 120 billion rupees of bonds
on May 6, the central bank said in a statement on Monday.On Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year bond yield had risen
9 bps, one-year swap 21 bps and 5-year swap 9 bps after the central bank's policy rate hike.

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