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Q2

2011

Australian Hotel
Market Outlook
The Australian economy
In early February 2011 Deloitte launched While Australians watched horrified as floods and
Hotel Market Outlook: 2010 in review; 2011 cyclones hit at home and earthquakes and tsunamis
and beyond, predicting year-end results for 2010 caused tragedies abroad, world prices for the industrial
some three months before the Australian Bureau and farm commodities we have in abundance surged
of Statistics released its official data. We did past the peaks they hit back in mid-2008. That
this by applying an econometric model, utilising means the world is begging Australia to grow faster,
historic ABS data, combined with the latest throwing enormous sums of money at our export
information from STR Global as well as economic sector, and expanding our national income fast.
forecasts by Deloitte Access Economics.
Yet, despite that, the pace of Australia’s recovery has
We are pleased to note that our forecasts were stalled of late. In part that reflects some ‘two speed
highly accurate, within a 0.2% occupancy economy’ negatives: a resource boom brings with it
and 0.5% average room rate margin in almost higher interest and exchange rates, and that mix is
all markets. weighing heavily on some sectors. At the same time
it is hard for the key growth positives to gain traction
The updated economic outlook by Deloitte – mining and engineering construction want to grow
Access Economics predicts a softer economic very fast, but their expansion is being dogged by slow
environment, resulting in downward revisions in bureaucratic and corporate approval processes as well
our forecasts for 2011 for both occupancy and as by skill shortages.
room rates. We also present a first look at our
projections for year-end 2012. The latter may become acute over the next two years,
because Australia’s growth prospects rest on a very
Subscribe to Deloitte Access Economics narrow base of sectors, occupations and States,
publications online. and because policy moves are making it harder to
migrate here.

The list of good news sectors is small, whereas the bad


The global economy
news list is long. Most manufacturers are being very
The key question for global growth was always just
hard hit by the marauding $A and the same currency
how big a letdown the passing of stimulus would
questions are also bedevilling foreign student numbers
prove. The early news is excellent – talk of a double dip
and the tourism sector.
in the rich world has all but disappeared, albeit partly
because emerging economy policymakers (spooked by
Consumers are cautious: savings is the new black
the revolutions which swept through the Arab world)
as Gen Y realises they haven’t saved nearly enough
continue to move far too slowly to rein in their still
for their burgeoning family responsibilities, while all
galloping growth.
generations are feeling the sting of higher interest
rates, keeping Australia’s retailers on the back foot.
That has extended the stay of industrial commodity
prices in the stratosphere. The latter have hit record
Even the public sector looks set to slow as stimulus
highs and have now been joined there by food
measures run their course.
prices as well. With emerging economies seeing their
growth ease slightly and the developed world seeing
Although it’ll be a close run thing, we expect the
its growth strengthen, 2011 and 2012 should see
Reserve Bank will have to push up rates over the
above trend global growth even though both families
next year (keeping the $A strong) even though many
and governments want to save more than they have
businesses and families are doing it tough.
been doing.

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Hotel Market Outlook Q2/2011

Economic Impacts for the Tourism, Hospitality


and Leisure sector
The longer the Australian dollar remains close to parity
with its US cousin, the harder it will be for tourism
and international education, two key sectors which
dominate our service export earnings, to make their
sales. Both are on the wrong side of Australia’s two
speed economy, with higher exchange rates combining
with changed migration rules and a sharp competitive
push from US colleges to generate depressingly large
falls in enrolments in key parts of Australia’s international
education sector. At the same time, although numbers The combination of a sharp drop in international
of inbound tourists lifted in recent months, it is hard to students as a result of the loosened link between
see visitor numbers sprinting any time soon, or perhaps studying here and obtaining permanent residency,
any time that the $A is above US$ parity. and increasing labour cost as the unemployment rate
continues to move down, has dire consequences for
Retail spend is directly related to spending in the seasonal businesses that are heavily dependent on
domestic leisure segment. Unfortunately, recent years casual workers. Not only will labour cost go up, it is
saw capital gains from homes and shares falter, and also likely to bring often already poor service standards
the global financial crisis led families to reassess the further down.
sustainability of their saving habits. The good news is
that the worst of the retail downturn is almost over. The tourism, hospitality and leisure sector is thus on the
2011 won’t be a great year for retail, but the swing to back foot amid a climate of high interest and exchange
saving that has already occurred has sown the seeds rates on the one hand and the national ‘swing to
of better times ahead, because families have already saving’ on the other. That combination has produced
broken the back of what they were trying to do – a less-than-favourable business backdrop, with more
get back to sustainable rates of saving. As income levels Australians heading to Bali instead of Broome and
continue to grow at comfortable enough rates, greater Disneyland instead of Dreamworld and stagnant
retail strength should be more evident by the end of numbers of tourists arriving here.
2011, maturing into more solid recovery in 2012.
Some of the earlier strength in cafés and restaurants
Activity levels in the corporate sector are strengthening has faded more recently, and whilst the business trade
as national income leverages the resources boom, is seeing some positives, that lift in business profits is
meaning that the local market for mergers and narrowly based and it isn’t driving long liquored-up
acquisitions is more active than most. That is lunches on the corporate credit card. Given that the
generating good demand for professional services. currency has been continuing to edge upwards of late,
However, this is a bellwether sector, and it too is feeling there is probably some bad news still in the pipeline for
the ‘two speed’ strains evident in the wider Australian this sector. However, it won’t last forever. In particular,
economy. Demand for professional services from some the $A may start to lose some altitude as interest
sectors and some States remains patchy. rates go up in the rest of the world – though not too
much altitude.

Ironically, whilst everything seems to work against


the resort and leisure sector, our corporate hubs are

Not only will labour cost go up, blessed with an absence of any notable additions to the
supply of hotel accommodation for more than a decade

it is also likely to bring often now, resulting in unprecedented room occupancy


levels. This opens the door wide for hoteliers to drive

already poor service standards room rate, hard. The ‘two-speed economy’ thus
applies to the tourism, hospitality and leisure sector

further down. as well, and this seems unlikely to change for the
foreseeable future.

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Australia
Australia: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends Sydney surpassed pre-GFC occupancy levels by mid-
70.0% $200 2010 and has now also recovered RevPAR in full. The
68.0% $180
outlook for Sydney for 2011 is extremely encouraging,
66.0% $160
primarily based on continued occupancy growth.
64.0% $140

Occupancy for the city is modelled to grow another 1%


62.0% $120

60.0% $100
to 86.4%, with average room rates forecast to rise by
58.0% $80 11% to $195, resulting in a RevPAR increase of 12% to
56.0% $60 around $168.
54.0% $40

Even with the expected opening of the Meriton


52.0% $20

50.0% $0

Apartments in Haymarket and the extension of Star City


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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend
Casino late in 2011, the forecast for 2012 anticipates
further occupancy growth to 87% and another 14%
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) growth in room rates to $222. RevPAR should thus
showed a country-wide RevPAR increase of 5.4% to increase by 14.5% to $193.
$88.67 for YE 2010, very close to our forecast of
$89.10. Room occupancy grew by 1.7% to 63.7%, Melbourne
Melbourne: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
and average room rates for 2010 grew by 2.6% 90.0% $325

to $139.16. 88.0% $300

86.0% $275

84.0% $250

We have softened our outlook for 2011 somewhat, 82.0% $225

based on a more reserved growth trend for the main


80.0% $200

78.0% $175

cities and continued uncertainty for leisure destinations. 76.0% $150

Overall room occupancy is now forecasted to remain 74.0% $125

72.0% $100

relatively constant, showing a marginal decrease of 70.0% $75

0.2% to 63.5%. Average room rates should grow by 68.0% $50

5.2% to $146 with RevPAR estimated to increase by


66.0% $25
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$4.35 (4.9%) to $93. Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend

Looking ahead to 2012, our model predicts a marginal RevPAR in Melbourne increased by 5.0% to $138.46 in
increase in occupancy by 0.5% to 64.0%. In the 2010. Room occupancy exactly matched our forecast at
absence of supply growth, average room rates are set 79.8% with growth of 2.5%, while the average room
to increase further by $9.58 (6.5%) to $156, increasing rates of $173.44 came very close to our forecasted
RevPAR by $6.75 (7.3%) to $100. growth of 1.6% to $173.14.

Sydney
Sydney: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
The outlook for 2011 is positive with no new supply on
90.0% $325 the horizon and occupancies expected to increase a
88.0% $300
further 2% to 81.7%. RevPAR is forecasted to increase
86.0% $275

84.0% $250
by 8.6% to $150 fuelled by growth in average room
82.0% $225 rates of 6.1% to $184 which is some $7 lower than our
80.0% $200
previous projection as hoteliers are proving to be less
aggressive than expected in raising room rates.
78.0% $175

76.0% $150

74.0% $125

72.0% $100 Looking forward to 2012, a little room occupancy


70.0% $75
growth is left to reach 83%, with average room rates
68.0% $50

set for double-digit growth of 11% to $204, increasing


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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend


RevPAR by 12.5% to $169. New supply additions are
not expected until 2014.
Sydney hotels recorded the strongest performance in
the country recording RevPAR growth of 10.8% to
$150.25 for YE 2010. Our occupancy forecast
matched the year-end result of 85.5%, with average
room rates growing by only 4.0% to $175.70 despite
record occupancies.

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Hotel Market Outlook Q2/2011

Brisbane
Brisbane: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends The outlook for YE 2011 is good, however, with the
86.0% $250 city forecasted to achieve the strongest growth rates
83.5% $225
in the country, with no new supply expected to enter
the market in the next three years. Room occupancy
81.0% $200

78.5% $175

76.0% $150
is predicted to increase by 3% to reach 85.6% with
73.5% $125
11% rate growth to $174 and RevPAR growing by 16%
71.0% $100 to $149.
68.5% $75

66.0% $50
This growth trend is expected to continue in 2012, with
forecasted average room rates and RevPAR exceeding
63.5% $25

61.0% $0

Melbourne and Brisbane. Occupancies may reach 88%,


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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend
surpassing Sydney’s projected occupancy for YE 2012.
Average room rates may grow by close to 20% again to
Brisbane hotels recorded strong RevPAR growth of $206, with RevPAR growth of 23.1% to $183.
9.7% to $126.27 for YE 2010, which is close to the
modelled forecast of $126.75. Forecasted occupanciesAdelaide:
Adelaide
Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
exactly matched actual results from ABS, with 4.1% 80.0% $250

growth to 78.8%. Average room rates grew by 3.9% 77.5% $225

to $160.14. 75.0% $200

72.5% $175

70.0% $150

The outlook for Brisbane remains strong. The city 67.5% $125

is expected to see an increase in supply by late 65.0% $100

2011 and in 2012 with the opening of the second 62.5% $75

Emporium, as well as a Novotel on Elizabeth Street. 60.0% $50

Room occupancy will continue to increase however, 57.5% $25

55.0% $0

as demand growth still outstrips supply growth. Our


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forecast for 2011 and 2012 is for occupancies of 80%, Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend

down by 2% from our previous prediction. Average


room rates are expected to increase by 7% in 2011 and Hoteliers in Adelaide achieved a commendable
10% in 2012 to $172 and $189 respectively. RevPAR is occupancy level of 76.6% in 2010, on par with our
thus expected to increase by 8.5% in 2011 to $137 and forecast. Room rate growth however was only 1.4%
by 11% in 2012 to reach $152. to reach $141.84, falling $1 short of our projected rate.
RevPAR for 2010 was $108.64.
Perth
Perth: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
92.5% $325 Unlike other cities in Australia, Adelaide’s outlook
shows a negative trend for the city, based on a soft
90.0% $300

87.5% $275

85.0% $250 economic outlook. Occupancy is projected to decline to


82.5% $225

80.0% $200
pre-GF C levels of around 74% with only marginal rate
77.5% $175
increases of 1.5% to $144. With the projected decrease
75.0% $150

72.5% $125
in occupancy and the minimal growth in average room
70.0% $100
rates, RevPAR is forecasted to decline by 3% to $106,
67.5% $75

65.0% $50
the lowest of Australia’s State capital cities.
62.5% $25

60.0% $0

Looking forward to 2012, room occupancy is expected


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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend


to decline by a further 1% to 73%, with average room
rates projected to increase by just 2.5%, improving
Perth hotels achieved record room occupancies before RevPAR by just over $1 to $107.
the GFC and remained above 80% throughout. Despite
this, room rates dropped by 3% in 2009 and recovered
by only 1.1% in 2010 to achieve 82.3% by year-end.
Room rate growth of 20% and more before the GFC
stagnated throughout 2009 and recorded only 2%
growth in 2010, closing at $157 for the year, about
$1 shy of our forecast.

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Canberra
Canberra: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends Darwin’s outlook is positive however with no further
80.0% $250
supply additions expected. Room occupancy growth
77.5% $225
is forecasted to improve by 1.5% to 72% in 2011 with
renewed growth in average room rates by 5% to $148.
75.0% $200

72.5% $175

70.0% $150
RevPAR is expected to increase by 7.5% to $99.
67.5% $125

65.0% $100 Further ahead, occupancy in 2012 should increase by a


62.5% $75
further 1% to 73%, with average room rates increasing
60.0% $50
7% to $159 resulting in RevPAR growth of 8% to $116.
57.5% $25

55.0% $0

Gold Coast
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Gold Coast: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend
77.5% $250

75.0% $225

Canberra hotels’ RevPAR growth exceeded Sydney for 72.5% $200

70.0% $175

YE 2010, with 11.3% growth to $114.50, matching the


67.5% $150

modelled forecast rate. Occupancy also grew stronger 65.0% $125

than Sydney, with 5.4% growth to 75.9% whilst 62.5% $100

average room rates grew 3.4% to $150.95. 60.0% $75

57.5% $50

Canberra’s outlook for 2011 was for a weaker year, and 55.0% $25

52.5% $0

this has been revised further down. Occupancy is now


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forecasted to decline by 2.5% to 73.5%, as several Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend

high-profile exhibits and events last year are not


repeated this year. Average room rates are predicted to The resort market on the Gold Coast was predicted to
increase by 3.5% to $156 with RevPAR growing by only be slow and actually performed below those
0.3% to $115. expectations. RevPAR improved by 2.4% to $90.13,
against a prediction for $91.34. This was caused by
In 2012 occupancy is forecast to decrease a further 1% occupancy only growing 1.8% to 68.2%, whilst
to 72.5%. However, in the expectation that hoteliers average room rates decreased 0.3% to $132.13 due to
will push through a much needed rate hike, average continued discounting.
room rates are predicted to rise by 8% to $169 causing
RevPAR to increase by almost 7% to $123. The outlook for the Gold Coast is uncertain. As Stage
II of the new Hilton enters the market, overall room
Darwin
Darwin: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends occupancy is expected to drop by 1.5% to 66.5%.
85.0% $210
As this property will hopefully trade above prevailing
82.5% $195

80.0% $180 average room rates, market-wide average room rates


77.5%

75.0%
$165

$150
are predicted to increase for the first time in three
72.5% $135 years, with growth expected at 2% to around $135.
70.0% $120

67.5% $105
RevPAR should hold at $90.
65.0% $90

62.5% $75

60.0% $60 Looking forward to YE 2012, occupancy will hopefully


improve to around 68%, with average room rates
57.5% $45

55.0% $30

52.5% $15
increasing further to $140, resulting in RevPAR
50.0% $0

projected to increase by 6% to $95.


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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend

RevPAR in Darwin grew 2.4% to $99.38 in 2010.


Occupancy growth remained positive on the back of a
decline in the previous year, with growth of 2.3% to
70.6%. Average room rates decreased marginally by
0.9% to $140.83 influenced by additions to supply in
the previous year.

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Hotel Market Outlook Q2/2011

Tropical North Queensland


TNQ: Occupancy, Rate and RevPAR Trends
75.0% $210
Your industry, our expertise
72.5% $195
Our dedicated practice provides a wide range
70.0% $180

67.5% $165 of services to financiers, property owners,


investment fund managers, private investors,
65.0% $150

62.5% $135

60.0% $120
developers, operators, and associated
57.5% $105

55.0% $90 stakeholders, including architects, government


departments, professional and business lobby
52.5% $75

50.0% $60

47.5% $45
groups, and tourism intermediaries.
45.0% $30

42.5% $15

40.0% $0

We act on assignments across the hospitality


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Room Occ% Room Rate Trend RevPAR Trend
sector including:
• Hotels, resorts, serviced apartments and
Tropical North Queensland (TNQ) hotels’ performance integrated developments
was impacted by the devastating natural disasters that
• Aviation and transport
affected the region in late 2010. The continuing rise of
the Australian dollar and global economic uncertainty is • Tourism
also hitting TNQ hard. RevPAR in 2010 fell 2.2% to • Betting and gaming
$64.83 in YE 2010, against a forecast of only 0.7% • Entertainment
decline. Occupancy decreased by 0.5% to 54.5%,
• Pubs and clubs
with average room rates declining by 1.3% to $119.
• Food and catering organisations.
TNQ’s outlook for 2011 remains grim and was revised
further downwards, with occupancies expected to We offer a full range of services to address
decrease by a further 1.5% to 53%, and average room key industry issues associated with economic
rates reducing by 2% to $117 as hoteliers continue conditions, regulatory change, competition,
discounting in an attempt to sell rooms. A lower emerging market sectors, technological
RevPAR will follow, with a forecasted decrease of 4% advancements, mergers and acquisitions,
to $62. and changing needs of investors. These include
specialist services focused on:
Hopefully a reversal in the A$ exchange rate will see • Administration and recovery
some growth in 2012, with a predicted increase in • Human capital
occupancy of 1% to 54%, and average room rates
• Financing
growing by 1% to $118. This should see RevPAR
improve by 3.5% to $64. • Market and asset due diligence
• Pricing and distribution
• Market development
Deloitte is recognised as one of the leading
• Branding and online products
global advisors to the Tourism, Hospitality
and Leisure (THL) industry, with a practice of • Sustainability.
more than 2000 professionals. In Australia,
our multidisciplinary group of industry Your business, our team
experts have a deep knowledge of the market The THL team is led by industry veterans Rutger
issues and business challenges faced within Smits and Ron de Wit, whose long-standing
the THL industry, both domestically and consulting experience and practical industry
internationally. knowledge provide a powerful combination when
supported by Deloitte’s team of technical experts.

With specialists in all geographies and across


all competencies, we quickly mobilise teams to
support our clients’ needs.

7
Contact us
For further information on how we can support your business needs, please contact:

Australia South Australia Audit & Assurance Deloitte Access Economics


Rutger Smits Alyson Trottman Stephen Holdstock Ric Simes
+61 (0) 2 9322 5455 +61 (0) 8 8407 7259 +61 (0) 2 9322 7299 +61 (0) 2 9322 7772
rsmits@deloitte.com.au atrottman@deloitte.com.au sholdstock@deloitte.com.au rsimes@deloitte.com.au

New South Wales Victoria Consulting Deloitte Private


Ron de Wit Andrew Bethune Steve Hussenet Weng Ching
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rdewit@deloitte.com.au abethune@deloitte.com.au shussenet@deloitte.com.au wengching@deloitte.com.au
 
Northern Territory Western Australia Corporate Finance Tax
Mark Rowberry Gary Doran Andrew Jones Max Persson
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mrowberry@deloitte.com.au gdoran@deloitte.com.au andrjones@deloitte.com.au mpersson@deloitte.com.au
     
Queensland Corporate Reorganisation Sustainability
Martin Leech John Greig Shauna Coffey
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mleech@deloitte.com.au jgreig@deloitte.com.au shacoffey@deloitte.com.au
   

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