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Tata Consultancy Services
Leapfrogging ahead
January 18, 2011 TCS reported results ahead of expectation for Q3FY11, beating our as well as
Q3FY11 Result Update
consensus expectation. TCS growth is aided by stronger‐than‐its‐peer volume
Shashi Bhusan growth. We reiterate our ‘BUY’ rating, with a target price of Rs1,400.
shashibhusan@plindia.com
+91‐22‐66322300 Q3FY11 result – ahead of expectation: TCS reported Q3FY11 results ahead of
expectation. Revenue grew by 4.1% QoQ to Rs96.6bn (PLe: Rs95.6bn Cons:
Rs96.1bn) and 7.0% QoQ (@cc 6%, PLe: 6%) in USD terms. Despite 2.7% QoQ
rupee appreciation, EBIT margins improved by 7bps (PLe: ‐39bp). EPS grew by
10.6% QoQ to Rs11.91 (PLe: Rs11.10, Cons: Rs11.19), due to forex gain of
Rating BUY Rs521.6m (Q2FY11: ‐Rs537m). TCS won nine large deals in Q3FY11.
Price Rs1,139 Growth not from pent‐up demand or budgetary flush; IT budget likely to see
Target Price Rs1,400 an uptick: TCS reported strong growth across the geography (except LatAm and
Implied Upside 22.9% India), verticals and services. According to the management, growth is not led
Sensex 18,882 by pent‐up demand or budgetary flush, but due to investments made by them in
(Prices as on January 18, 2011) different markets. Moreover, preliminary discussion with clients indicate an
uptick in the IT budget, with improvement in discretionary spend. Despite
Trading data improvement in pricing by 118bps QoQ, the management maintained a
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 2,229.6 conservative stance on pricing. TCS guided for 37k fresher hiring for FY12.
Shares o/s (m) 1,957.2
3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) 1952.4
Revising FY11 and FY12 estimates upward: We revise our FY11 and FY12
estimates upward, driven by stronger volume growth and stable margin. We
revise our EPS estimate for FY11 and FY12 by 1.8% and 2.3%, respectively.
Major shareholders Valuation and Recommendation – Reiterate ‘BUY’, target price ‐ Rs1,400: We
Promoters 74.05% expect the volume growth to be in high 20s digit, with touch positive bias in
Foreign 12.79% pricing for TCS in FY12. We expect them to maintain EBITDA margin in narrow
Domestic Inst. 7.89% range despite currency and wage inflation headwinds. We reiterate ‘BUY’ rating,
Public & Other 5.27% with a target price of Rs1,400, 24x Dec‐12e earnings estimate.
Key financials (Y/e March) 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenues (Rs m) 300,289 372,891 456,501 579,184
Stock Performance Growth (%) 8.0 24.2 22.4 26.9
(%) 1M 6M 12M
EBITDA (Rs m) 86,799 111,285 136,912 167,391
Absolute (0.1) 36.7 45.8
PAT (Rs m) 68,729 85,548 99,663 118,977
Relative 4.8 31.5 38.2
EPS (Rs) 35.1 43.7 50.9 60.8
Growth (%) 32.9 24.5 16.5 19.4
Net DPS (Rs) 15.0 8.0 9.5 12.0
Price Performance (RIC: TCS.BO, BB: TCS IN)
Source: Company Data; PL Research
(Rs)
1,400
Profitability & Valuation 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
1,200
1,000 EBITDA margin (%) 28.9 29.8 30.0 28.9
800 RoE (%) 37.6 34.9 31.0 28.9
600 RoCE (%) 34.4 33.0 29.5 27.7
400 EV / sales (x) 7.3 5.8 4.6 3.6
200
EV / EBITDA (x) 25.1 19.5 15.5 12.3
0
PE (x) 32.4 26.1 22.4 18.7
Nov‐10
Jul‐10
Sep‐10
Mar‐10
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
May‐10
Q3FY11 results – ahead of expectation
Q3FY11 Q2FY11 QoQ Q3FY10 YoY PLe Cons. PL v/s Act
Consolidated Sales (USD m) 2,144.0 2,004.0 7.0% 1,635.0 31.1% 2,124.2 na 0.7%
Consolidated Sales (Rs m) 96,634 92,864 4.1% 76,503 26.3% 95,590.8 96,073 1.1%
Operating Profit (Rs m) 27,132 26,008 4.3% 20,887 29.9% 26,287.5 27,381 3.2%
OPM 28.1% 28.0% 7 bps 27.3% 77 bps 27.5% 28.5% 58 bps
PAT (Rs m) 23,302 21,065 10.6% 17,975 29.6% 21,727.0 21,827 7.2%
PAT Margin 24.1% 22.7% 143 bps 23.5% 62 bps 22.7% 22.7% 138 bps
EPS (Rs) 11.91 10.76 10.6% 9.18 29.6% 11.10 11.19 7.2%
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research
Margin Drivers (QoQ) Revising FY11 & FY12 estimates upward – but target price same due to higher FY13 tax rate
Currency ‐112bp NEW OLD REVISION
Off shoring +23bp FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12
Productivity & Others +97bp Revenue (Rs m) 372,891 456,501 370,233 454,248 0.7% 0.5%
Total +7bp EBIT (Rs m) 103,325 126,923 101,624 125,187 1.7% 1.4%
Source: Company Data, PL Research EBIT Margin 27.7% 27.8% 27.4% 27.6% 26 bps 24 bps
EPS (Rs) 43.71 50.92 42.94 49.79 1.8% 2.3%
Target Price (Rs) 1,400 1,400 0%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Growth Drivers (QoQ) Strong growth in NA and Europe, Ibero and India ‐ weakness quarterly aberration
Volume Growth 5.7% Revenue By Geography (USD m) Q3FY11 Q2FY11 QoQ Q3FY10 YoY
Exchange 1.1% America 1,211 1,154 4.9% 938 29.1%
Total +6.8% North America 1,145 1,076 6.4% 858 33.4%
Source: Company Data, PL Research Ibero America 66 78 ‐15.1% 80 ‐17.2%
Europe 541 489 10.7% 432 25.4%
UK 342 307 11.7% 262 30.9%
Continental Europe 199 182 9.1% 170 17.0%
India 197 198 ‐0.8% 139 41.7%
Asia Pacific 148 124 18.8% 92 61.3%
MEA 43 38 12.4% 34 24.7%
% of Total
America 56.6% 57.6% ‐100 bps 57.4% ‐80 bps
North America 53.5% 53.7% ‐20 bps 52.5% 100 bps
Ibero America 3.1% 3.9% ‐80 bps 4.9% ‐180 bps
Europe 25.3% 24.4% 90 bps 26.4% ‐110 bps
UK 16.0% 15.3% 70 bps 16.0% 0 bps
Continental Europe 9.3% 9.1% 20 bps 10.4% ‐110 bps
India 9.2% 9.9% ‐70 bps 8.5% 70 bps
Asia Pacific 6.9% 6.2% 70 bps 5.6% 130 bps
MEA 2.0% 1.9% 10 bps 2.1% ‐10 bps
Source: Company Data, PL Research
January 18, 2011 2
Tata Consultancy Services
Strong growth across the service line, Telecom weakness due to India’s project closure
Revenue By Verticals (USD m) Q3FY11 Q2FY11 QoQ Q3FY10 YoY
BFSI 954 882 8.2% 736 29.7%
Telecom 255 257 ‐0.7% 198 28.7%
Retail & Distribution 233 218 6.8% 196 18.9%
Manufacturing 154 148 3.9% 136 13.5%
Life Sciences & Healthcare 107 102 4.7% 96 10.9%
Hi‐tech 111 92 20.7% 82 36.1%
Transportation 73 64 13.5% 56 30.9%
Energy & Utilities 94 86 9.3% 56 69.4%
Media & Entertainment 49 40 22.8% 34 43.4%
Others 109 114 ‐4.5% 46 138.4%
% of Total
BFSI 44.6% 44.0% 60 bps 45.0% ‐40 bps
Telecom 11.9% 12.8% ‐90 bps 12.1% ‐20 bps
Retail & Distribution 10.9% 10.9% 0 bps 12.0% ‐110 bps
Manufacturing 7.2% 7.4% ‐20 bps 8.3% ‐110 bps
Life Sciences & Healthcare 5.0% 5.1% ‐10 bps 5.9% ‐90 bps
Hi‐Tech 5.2% 4.6% 60 bps 5.0% 20 bps
Transportation 3.4% 3.2% 20 bps 3.4% 0 bps
Energy & Utilities 4.4% 4.3% 10 bps 3.4% 100 bps
Media & Entertainment 2.3% 2.0% 30 bps 2.1% 20 bps
Others 5.1% 5.7% ‐60 bps 2.8% 230 bps
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Continued strategic shift toward FPP pro
Contract Type Analysis Q3FY11 Q2FY11 QoQ Q3FY10 YoY
Time & Material 50.3% 51.0% ‐70 bps 52.0% ‐170 bps
Fixed Price & Project 49.7% 49.0% 70 bps 48.0% 170 bps
Contract Type Revenue (USD m)
Time & Material 1,076 1,022 5.3% 850 26.6%
Fixed Price & Project 1,064 982 8.3% 785 35.5%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Strongest net client addition in the last eight quarters
Q3FY11 Q2FY11 QoQ Q3FY10 YoY
Active Clients 959 936 2.5% 917 4.6%
New Clients Added 35 30 16.7% 32 9.4%
Repeat Business Revenue 97.6% 98.3% ‐70 bps 96.5% 110 bps
New Business Revenue 2.4% 1.7% 70 bps 3.5% ‐110 bps
Source: Company Data, PL Research
January 18, 2011 3
Tata Consultancy Services
Strong growth coming from Top 5‐10 clients and Non‐top 10 clients
Client Contribution Q3FY11 Q2FY11 QoQ Q3FY10 YoY
as % of Revenue
Top 1 Client 7.7% 8.0% ‐30 bps 8.1% ‐40 bps
Top 5 Clients 21.9% 22.1% ‐20 bps 21.5% 40 bps
Top 10 Clients 30.1% 30.1% 0 bps 29.9% 20 bps
Non‐Top 10 Clients 69.9% 69.9% 0 bps 70.1% ‐20 bps
Total Revenue (USD m)
Top 1 Client 165 160 2.8% 132 24.4%
Top 5 Clients 469 443 5.8% 352 33.3%
Top 10 Clients 644 603 6.8% 489 31.8%
Non Top 10 Clients 1,496 1,401 6.8% 1,146 30.5%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Guidance of 12‐15k hiring for the next quarter, 37k (already offered 23.7k for FY12)
Headcount Q3FY11 Q2FY11 QoQ Q3FY10 YoY
Including Indian Subsidiaries 186,914 174,417 7.2% 149,654 24.9%
Excluding Indian Subsidiaries 163,995 153,168 7.1% 130,509 25.7%
Gross Addition 16,847 17,121 ‐1.6% 11,377 48.1%
Laterals (India) 7,737 7,405 4.5% 2,249 244.0%
Net Addition 10,827 10,229 5.8% 7,417 46.0%
Attrition rate 13.2% 13.1% 14 bps 10.8% 241 bps
Offshore Utilisation ( Incl. Trainees ) 77.1% 77.7% ‐60 bps 77.2% ‐10 bps
Offshore Utilisation ( Excl. Trainees ) 83.8% 83.8% 0 bps 81.1% 270 bps
Source: Company Data, PL Research
January 18, 2011 4
Tata Consultancy Services
Offshore leverage continues to drive margin improvement
Revenue Delivery Location Q3FY11 Q2FY11 QoQ Q3FY10 YoY
Offshore 51.4% 51.1% 30 bps 51.3% 10 bps
Onsite 43.7% 43.9% ‐20 bps 42.5% 120 bps
GDC/RDC 4.9% 5.0% ‐10 bps 6.2% ‐130 bps
Rs m
Offshore 1,100 1,024 7.4% 839 31.1%
Onsite 935 880 6.3% 695 34.6%
GDC/RDC 105 100 4.7% 101 3.4%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
ADM continues to lag the growth whereas IMS leading the race
By Service Line (USD m) Q3FY11 Q2FY11 QoQ Q3FY10 YoY
IT Solutions & Services 1,434 1,389 3.2% 1,151 24.6%
Application Dev & Maint. 963 938 2.7% 803 20.0%
Business Intelligence 113 112 1.1% 93 21.7%
Enterprise Solutions 205 206 ‐0.5% 172 19.7%
Assurance Services 152 132 14.9% 83 82.2%
Engineering & Industrial Services 103 98 4.6% 80 28.2%
Infrastructure Services 225 188 19.3% 129 74.0%
Global Consulting 49 42 17.0% 34 43.4%
Asset Leverage Solutions 86 68 25.6% 52 63.6%
Business Process Outsourcing 244 218 11.7% 188 29.7%
% of Total Revenue
IT Solutions & Services 67.0% 69.3% ‐230 bps 70.4% ‐340 bps
Application Dev & Maint. 45.0% 46.8% ‐180 bps 49.1% ‐410 bps
Business Intelligence 5.3% 5.6% ‐30 bps 5.7% ‐40 bps
Enterprise Solutions 9.6% 10.3% ‐70 bps 10.5% ‐90 bps
Assurance Services 7.1% 6.6% 50 bps 5.1% 200 bps
Engineering & Industrial Services 4.8% 4.9% ‐10 bps 4.9% ‐10 bps
Infrastructure Services 10.5% 9.4% 110 bps 7.9% 260 bps
Global Consulting 2.3% 2.1% 20 bps 2.1% 20 bps
Asset Leverage Solutions 4.0% 3.4% 60 bps 3.2% 80 bps
Business Process Outsourcing 11.4% 10.9% 50 bps 11.5% ‐10 bps
Source: Company Data, PL Research
January 18, 2011 5
Tata Consultancy Services
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
Net Revenue 300,289 372,891
456,501 579,184 Shareholder's Funds 209,404 280,323 362,699 459,824
Raw Material Expenses 161,628 202,598
250,877 325,124 Total Debt 111 111 111 111
Gross Profit 138,661 170,293 205,624 254,060 Other Liabilities 11,501 11,500 11,501 11,501
Employee Cost — — — — Total Liabilities 221,015 291,934 374,311 471,435
Other Expenses 51,862 59,008 68,711 86,669 Net Fixed Assets 41,706 48,662 56,932 66,490
EBITDA 86,799 111,285 136,912 167,391 Goodwill 32,415 32,415 32,415 32,415
Depr. & Amortization 7,208 7,960 9,990 12,162 Investments 37,839 37,839 37,839 37,839
Net Interest (1,551) — — — Net Current Assets 82,952 146,915 221,021 308,587
Other Income 694 3,428 4,207 5,585 Cash & Equivalents 46,773 64,572 110,210 163,236
Profit before Tax 81,836 106,753 131,130 160,814 Other Current Assets 91,376 143,640 175,847 223,105
Total Tax 12,088 20,176 30,160 40,204 Current Liabilities 55,197 61,297 65,036 77,753
Profit after Tax 69,748 86,577 100,970 120,611 Other Assets 26,103 26,103 26,103 26,103
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. (1,019) (1,029) (1,307) (1,633) Total Assets 221,015 291,934 374,311 471,435
Adj. PAT 68,729 85,548 99,663 118,977
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 1,957.2 1,957.2 1,957.2 1,957.2
EPS (Rs.) 35.1 43.7 50.9 60.8
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) Quarterly Financials (Rs m)
Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Y/e March Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11
C/F from Operations 74,869 48,372 82,491 98,232 Net Revenue 77,365 82,173 92,864 96,634
C/F from Investing (51,361) (14,916) (18,260) (21,719) EBITDA 23,121 24,088 27,894 29,173
C/F from Financing (28,098) 20,867 (18,593) (23,486) % of revenue 29.9 29.3 30.0 30.2
Inc. / Dec. in Cash (4,591) 54,324 45,638 53,026 Depr. & Amortization 1,841 1,781 1,886 2,041
Opening Cash 14,839 10,249 64,572 110,210 Net Interest 1,234 (762) (834) (894)
Closing Cash 10,249 64,572 110,210 163,236 Other Income (843) 831 337 1,817
FCFF 78,049 32,428 62,924 74,879 Profit before Tax 20,437 23,138 26,345 28,948
FCFE 76,398 32,428 62,924 74,879 Total Tax 3,284 4,423 4,992 5,385
Profit after Tax 16,844 18,442 21,065 23,301
Adj. PAT 16,844 18,442 21,065 23,301
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
Key Financial Metrics
Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
Growth
Revenue (%) 8.0 24.2 22.4 26.9
EBITDA (%) 20.9 28.2 23.0 22.3
PAT (%) 32.9 24.5 16.5 19.4
EPS (%) (33.5) 24.5 16.5 19.4
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%) 28.9 29.8 30.0 28.9
PAT Margin (%) 22.9 22.9 21.8 20.5
RoCE (%) 34.4 33.0 29.5 27.7
RoE (%) 37.6 34.9 31.0 28.9
Balance Sheet
Net Debt : Equity (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4)
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) 66 72 73 73
Valuation
PER (x) 32.4 26.1 22.4 18.7
P / B (x) 10.6 8.0 6.1 4.8
EV / EBITDA (x) 25.1 19.5 15.5 12.3
EV / Sales (x) 7.3 5.8 4.6 3.6
Earnings Quality
Eff. Tax Rate 14.8 18.9 23.0 25.0
Other Inc / PBT 0.8 3.2 3.2 3.5
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 10.8 9.8 10.0 10.0
FCFE / PAT 111.2 37.9 63.1 62.9
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
January 18, 2011 6
Tata Consultancy Services
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.
3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage
60% 55.3%
50%
% of Total Coverage
40%
28.8%
30%
20% 13.6%
10%
2.3%
0%
Buy Accumulate Reduce Sell
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
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January 18, 2011 7