Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Of
Indian Economy
May
2007
Overall Economy
The released by CSO shows that Indian economy grew by 9.4% during 2006-07. In absolute
terms the GDP of the country at constant prices stood at Rs 2848157 crores for 2006-07
showing an annual rise of 9.4% over the previous year. The revised annual rise in GDP was
slightly higher than the 9.2 % (for 2006-07) estimated in February 2007. In 2006-07 GDP
growth was mainly fueled by Industry and services that grew at 10.9% and 11.0 %
respectively contributed 26.6 % and 54.9 % to the total GDP growth. However, during the
year 2006-07 agriculture and allied services failed to maintain the growth momentum of
2005-06.
Industrial Growth
Indian industry achieved an impressive growth in the last fiscal 2006-07. The overall
industrial production grew at 11.3 % in 2006-07 as against the growth of 8.2 % in the
previous fiscal. The growth was more manufacturing sector led, which grew by 12.3 % in
2006-07 as compared to 9.1% a year ago. Mining and electricity sectors too pushed the
overall industrial growth posting a high growth of 5.1% and 7.2 % in 2006-07 respectively as
against the 1.0% and 5.3 % growth respectively in 2005-06.
Data as per the use-based classification shows that basic and capital goods – a proxy for
investment demand have clocked growths of 10.2% and 17.7% respectively in 2006-07 in
contrast to 6.7% and 15.8% registered during the previous fiscal. However, the consumer
durables saw a slight slowdown in 2006-07 on account of lower growths in both the
consumer durables and non-durables. During the last fiscal production of consumer goods
grew at 10 % as against the 12% growth in the previous fiscal.
In 2006-07, among the 16 industry sectors, 12 industry sectors swept past the growths
recorded in the previous fiscal. Production gr owth slid for 2 industry sectors and remained
low for the remaining sectors. The sectors that improved their performance were basic
metals, transport equipment, cotton textiles, machinery and equipment, wood, non metallic
mineral products, rubber, metal products and parts, manmade textiles, basic chemicals,
paper and food products.
During the year 2006-07 the six core infrastructure industries grew at a high of 8.6% as
compared to the 6.2% increase a year before. This growth arrived on account of better
production numbers across the six core industries. The four infrastructure industries, crude
petroleum, petroleum refinery, power and coal posted growths of 5.6%, 12.6 %, 7.3% and
5.9% respectively exceeding the growths recorded in the previous fiscal, maintaining the
overall infrastructure growth.
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However growth in the production of finished steel and cement slowed during the fiscal
2006-07. Production of finished steel was observed to speed-up in the last two months of
2006-07 compared to the corresponding months of 2005-06..
Telecommunication
Telephone connections in the country crossed the 200 million mark and an addition of about
67 million phones was made during the year 2006-07. Today the total telephone connections
in the country stand at 206.8 million, of which 139.8 million come from mobile phones and
the remaining 40.7 million connections from the landline connections. March 2007 saw
mobile phones making lowest ever addition during the year; additions of just 3.53 million
phone connections due to insistence by the Government to ensure verification of
subscribers
Tele density went up by 43 % touching 18.31 in March 2007 against the density recorded in
March 2006.
The mood of the market is such that negative news triggers the adverse index movements
while the positives leave markets unchanged..
We have seen that the attempt of the central bank’s monetary tightening measures, hike in
the CRR and the lending rates to curb inflation rose concerns among the investor
community. The fall in both the indices BSE and NSE seen in the middle of March through
April 2007 was in response to the growing concern over the expensive funds. The BSE
index plunged by 4.7 percentage points during March end 2007over the previous month’s
close and NSE too slipped by 4.9 percentage points. However the stock markets have
shown resilience in May 2007 and the host of corrective measures by the Central Bank
resulted into bringing inflation to desired levels.
Inflation Trends
The overall WPI based inflation for 2006-07, averaged at 5.4% as against the 4.4 % in the
2005-06. The upper limit of the targeted inflation for 2006-07 was breached in the last
quarter of 2006-07, primarily on account of rising prices of primary articles and
manufactured items. However, inflation was found to average below the set range of 5-5.5 %
for 2006-07.
For the current fiscal (2007-08) RBI has kept the target inflation rate around 4.5 %. The
recent counter -inflation steps taken by the go vernment helped in cooling the inflation rate
that was soaring above 6%.
2
Past weeks saw YoY, WPI based inflation gr adually setting closer to 5%. The measures
applied by the RBI have checked the prices of some items falling under the broad
categories - primary articles and manufactured products, further helping in bringing down
the inflation rate.
The RBI employed monetary tightening measures to absorb the excess liquidity in the
market impacting the prices of the manufactured items. The government has regulated
exports of some identified commodities addressing the supply crunch in various primary
articles. Monsoon would also help in easing the pressures on the supply side of some
primary articles.
Monetary Indicators
The Broad money growth for the last fiscal 2006-07 stood at 20.7 % and was slightly lower
than the growth of M3 during the same period a year ago. Bank credit to the government
rose substantially during the year-end 2007 compared to the same period of last year. We
observed slowdown in the bank credit to the commercial sector. However, the net foreign
exchange assets of the banks spiked by 28.9% as against 11.1% in the same period a year
ago. Scale up in investments on government securities by 10 % was also seen during the
year.
Impact of the hike in the rates of long term deposits was reflected in the numbers on
aggregate deposits that went up by 23 % in 2006-07 compared to 18% in the corresponding
period of the previous year. Credit off take decelerated during the year compared to last
year.
Fiscal Management
Gross tax revenue collections grew at a rate much higher in 2006-07 than the previous year.
Data up to March 2007 shows gross collections increased at 29.3% as against the 20 %
increase in the previous year. Corporation tax and Income tax both contributed 45 % to the
total tax collected and grew at 41% and 35.4% respectively and this was much higher than
the increase in the tax collected a year ago.
Among the indirect taxes we saw collections from customs maintain the rise, growing at
32.7 %, although collections from the central excise was not as much as in the same period
of previous year.
In 2006-07 the Government was seen to achieve the targeted fiscal deficit. It touched a
level of Rs 146348 crore representing 100.10 % of the targeted. Comparing the numbers of
2006-07 with that of the previous year’s, we see numbers of 2006-07 close to the targeted
figure.
3
Foreign Trade
Indian trade numbers available for the year 2006-07 shows Indian exports growing at 20.9 %
as against the high growth of 24 % in 2005-06 in US dollar terms. Quarterly trends in trade
shows Indian exports strongly growing in the first two quarters of 2006-07, however exports
took a hit from the middle of quarter three. Indian merchandise exports was able to achieve
the targeted , USD 125 billion for 2006-07. Indian exports were reeling under pressure since
the third quarter of 2006-07 due to rising prices of raw materials and later due to
appreciating Indian Rupee hitting the Indian business community in quick succession.
However we saw that Indian imports soared at 26.4% during the year, further widening the
trade deficit.
The strong Indian Rupee against the green back came as a breather for the importer,
reducing the import bill, whereas the appreciating Rupee took exporters in its grip.
Capital Flows
Capital Inflows for the period April-February 2006-07 have swept past the inflows received
during the entire 2005-06. Direct investment contributed USD 17.1 billion during April-
February period of 2006-07; this was much higher than USD 7.7 billion received in the
entire 2005-06. Portfolio investments however remained lower in 2006-07 than the
investments in the previous year. During the year 2006-07, the amount raised by the Indian
corporates through GDR and ADR route has been much higher ( USD 3.7 billion) than that
was raised in the previous year (USD 2.5 billion ).
Foreign exchange reserves crossed the USD 200 billion mark in the first week of April 2007.
Forex reserves stood at USD 180 billion in December 2006 and since then a surge in the
Forex was observed. The main constituent of the Forex, Foreign Currency Assets touched
USD 195.8 billion in the second week of April 2007. Gold , SDRs and reserve position in
IMF however did not show much movement. The increase in the foreign currency assets was
largely due to the effect of appreciation in the non – US currencies held in reserves ( Euro,
Yen and Sterling). The piling up of reserves is a strain for the central bank, as it is seen
that interest on securities exceeds the rate of return on reserves and therefore some steps
need to be taken to ease the pressure due to forex buildup.
Appreciation in Indian Rupee against the greenback started in March 2007. This rise in
Rupee value was on account of an inflow in the foreign capital, in the form of FDI, ECB and
Portfolio investments. To maintain the exch ange rate within a range the central bank has
been buying dollars from the market but due to inflationary pressures, RBI slightly
4
distanced itself from the forex market. RBI’s adoption of passive approach has made Rupee
appreciate to levels that are pro imports.
Indian Rupee began to appreciate since the middle of March 2007, it continued to slide
below Rs 44.00 and slip to an alarming below-forty one level towards the end of April 2007,
It has been found that Indian Rupee against the Euro too behaved similar to its movement
vis-à-vis USD, Indian Rupee attained a level of Rs 55-54 in June 2007 from 58-57 in March
2007, appreciating by 6.5% . Indian Rupee against the Euro averaged at Rs 55.11 in May
2007 up from an average of Rs 57.00 in the previous month.
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Contents
Title Page
3 Telecom 10
4 Trends in inflation 11
5 Monetary indicators 14
7 Fiscal management 18
8 Foreign trade 20
9 Capital inflows 26
6
LIST OF TABLES
7
1 Overall Economy and Industrial Growth
8
2 Core Infrastructure Industries
All
infrastructure Finished steel Cement Crude petroleum
industries
2005- 2006- 2005- 2006- 2005- 2006- 2005-
06 07 06 07 06 07 06 2006-07
April 6.0 6.7 16.9 8.6 7.9 11.7 -0.4 -1.9
May 8.1 5.1 11.1 6.4 15.3 6.3 -1.9 1.0
June 8.3 6.2 21.9 5.6 13.3 11.2 0.4 1.2
July 2.3 9.0 10.4 8.0 3.6 13.3 -4.0 4.1
August 5.7 5.5 7.8 6.3 17.8 2.2 -16.1 11.9
September 1.8 9.9 5.9 8.4 4.9 15.9 -7.3 9.3
October 7.4 9.0 6.9 7.1 8.6 9.1 -7.1 9.3
November 5.7 9.5 14.8 9.0 7.8 11.5 -8.6 10.1
December 7.5 8.3 16.7 9.7 13.4 7.6 -8.1 10.6
January 8.2 8.7 14.3 10.4 15.4 6.8 -4.7 4.7
February 9.1 7.2 12.4 13.5 16.3 5.8 -2.0 4.9
March 7.1 10.0 10.9 15.0 17.0 5.5 2.5 3.2
April-March 6.2 8.6 11.2 10.9 12.4 9.1 -5.3 5.6
Source: Ministry of Industry
9
3 Telecommunications
1
WLL subscribers of all the service providers are now counted as mobile subscribers by TRAI
10
4. Inflation Trends
11
Table-4.6: Trends in wholesale prices-6 (% change)
12
Table-4.10: Monthly trends in consumer prices (% change)
13
5 MONETARY INDICATORS
14
2005-06 2006-07 2005-06 2006-07
April 301 -46064 - 6.5
May -10474 63959 -1.6 9.0
June -13378 71845 -2.1 10.1
July -20195 87888 -3.1 12.1
August 7593 92075 1.7 12.7
September 12036 69479 1.9 9.6
October 30310 66333 4.7 9.1
November 33548 85678 5.2 11.8
December 39738 105533 6.1 14.5
January 7910 113834 1.2 15.7
February 24651 181829 3.8 25.0
March 76939 204124 11.1 28.9
Variation in non-monetary Variation in non-monetary
liabilities of banks (Rs crore) liabilities of banks (%)
2005-06 2006-07 2005-06 2006-07
April -39065 -968 -8.8 -0.2
May -53387 22520 -12.1 4.9
June -51077 51810 -11.5 11.3
July -14531 63504 -3.6 13.6
August 2680 46025 0.7 9.9
September 4753 45573 1.2 9.8
October 38017 41352 9.4 8.9
November 46620 47843 11.6 10.3
December 43260 72859 10.7 15.7
January 57755 75166 14.3 16.1
February 59183 126156 14.7 27.1
March 22730 126898 5.1 27.0
15
October 14443 42882 2.0 6.0
November 1971 47906 0.3 6.7
December -39829 27600 -5.4 3.8
January -19190 40103 -2.6 5.6
February -30212 84481 -4.1 11.8
March -22809 74706 -3.1 10.4
Variation in total credit of SCB Variation in total credit of SCB
(Rs crore) (%)
2005-06 2006-07 2005-06 2006-07
April 27553 -9303 2.5 -0.6
May 40644 -13962 3.7 -0.9
June 60975 16091 5.5 1.1
July 33730 49840 2.9 8.3
August 49622 79042 4.3 5.2
September 124029 147657 10.8 9.8
October 135115 148490 11.7 9.9
November 155032 176653 13.5 11.7
December 205710 259267 17.9 17.2
January 234054 289038 20.3 19.2
February 270150 339326 23.4 22.5
March 354868 416115 30.8 27.6
Variation in food credit of SCB
(Rs crore)
2005-06 2006-07
April 644 -3433
May 4606 -1628
June 3683 607
July -461 -4615
August 97 -4325
September -467 -7233
October -211 -4058
November 2439 -2011
December 1904 1470
January -64 2812
February 1432 4299
March 675 5930
Variation in non-food credit of
SCB (Rs crore)
2004-05 2005-06
April 26909 -5870
May 36038 -12334
June 57092 15484
July 34191 54455
August 49525 83367
September 124496 154889
October 135326 152548
November 152593 178664
December 203806 257797
January 234118 286226
February 268718 334027
March 354193 410285
Source: Reserve Bank of India
16
6 STOCK MARKET TRENDS
17
7 FISCAL TRENDS
18
Table-7.2 Trends in central government finances: April-March
19
8 FOREIGN TRADE
20
1.Basic chemicals
Pharmaceuticals 4,780.80 5,583.20 35.8 16.8
2.plastics & linoleum 1,620.10 1,766.60 9.3 9
3.Rubber, glass 1,149.10 1,310.00 31.5 14
4.Residual chemicals &
allied 376.3 428.4 49.9 13.8
C. Engineering goods 11,761.50 16,045.00 37.4 36.4
1.Manufacture of metals 2,320.10 2,783.30 33.3 20
2. Machinery &
instruments 2,739.20 3,640.00 53.7 32.9
3. Transport equipments 2,407.20 2,722.70 57.9 13.1
4. Iron & steel 1,981.80 2,934.80 10.8 48.1
5. Electronic goods 1,153.60 1,537.90 17 33.3
D. Textiles 9,037.60 9,533.80 23.7 5.5
1. Cotton, yarn, fabrics 2,197.90 2,366.60 16.6 7.7
2. natural Silk 257.4 239.7 14.8 –6.9
3. Manmade Yarn,
fabrics, made ups 1,101.20 1,205.60 –2.0 9.5
4. Manmade staple 43.5 93.8 62.3 115.9
5. Woolen yarn 50.8 49.4 32.6 –2.8
6. Ready made
Garments 4,667.50 4,820.20 34.2 3.3
7 Jute 173.7 169.2 17.4 –2.6
8. Coir 78.6 80.9 40.7 2.9
9. Carpets 467 508.4 44 8.9
E. Gems & jewelry 9,547.80 9,132.30 29.6 –4.4
F handicrafts 288.9 190.7 27.3 –34.0
G Petroleum products 6,119.00 11,308.50 67 84.8
Others 1,502.10 3,633.10 33.2 141.9
Total exports 56,669.20 70,994.80 33.9 25.3
21
5. Sugar 146.6 0.7 — —
22
Table-8.4: Growth of major export markets
23
Egypt, Arab Republic 341.3 379.5 57.1 11.2
Kenya 269.9 876.9 13.5 224.9
South Africa 872.2 1,366.00 51.6 56.6
Sudan 177.4 234.8 33.9 32.4
Tanzania 138 169.3 49.4 22.7
Zambia 38.5 68 71.9 76.7
Latin American countries 1,782.60 2,378.10 54.3 33.4
Others 57.4 61 55.9 6.2
Unspecified 95.6 89.1 –62.4 –6.7
Total 56,669.20 70,994.80 33.9 25.3
24
Maldives 1 1.9 233.3 90.0
Nepal 221.5 162.1 24.9 -26.8
Pakistan 100.6 187.9 87.0 86.8
Sri Lanka 327.3 297.7 108.9 -9.0
Other Asian
developing countries 16,215.00 26,286.90 47.7 62.1
China, People's
Republic of 5,990.30 9,471.60 68.7 58.1
Hong Kong 1,296.20 1,425.90 49.1 10.0
South Korea 2,483.20 2,816.90 45.5 13.4
Malaysia 1,388.80 3,185.40 12.8 129.4
Singapore 1,789.80 3,206.20 32.2 79.1
Thailand 711.3 953.6 64.8 34.1
Africa 2,806.10 4,281.30 44.0 52.6
Benin 65.9 64.5 16.0 -2.1
Egypt, Arab Republic 163.2 1,106.90 76.1 578.2
Kenya 29 33.3 14.2 14.8
South Africa 1,501.50 1,639.80 52.4 9.2
Sudan 19.3 48.9 26.1 153.4
Tanzania 32.4 24.6 -21.4 -24.1
Zambia
21.7 71.4 36.5 229.0
Latin American
countries 1,455.60 2,764.30 40.5 89.9
Others 17.8 35.3 150.7 98.3
Unspecified 24,547.40 270.1 41.6 -98.9
Total 82,371.20 104,120.20 44.4 26.4
25
9 CAPITAL INFLOWS
April-February April-February
2005-06 2006-07
Foreign currency non resident (Banks) 1219 1804
Non resident (external) Rupee account 807 1744
Total 2026 3548
Source: Reserve Bank of India
26
10 FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
27
11 TRENDS IN EXCHANGE RATES
US dollar Euro
Exchange rate Change (%) Exchange rate Change (%)
2006- 2007- 2006- 2007- 2006- 2007- 2006- 2007-
07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08
April 44.9 42.2 1.4 -4.0 55.2 57.0 3.4 -2.2
May 45.4 1.1 58.0 4.8
June 46.0 1.3 58.3 0.5
July 46.5 1.0 59.0 1.2
August 46.5 0.1 59.6 1.0
September 46.1 -0.8 58.8 -1.4
October 45.5 -1.3 57.4 -2.4
November 44.9 -1.3 57.8 0.7
December 44.6 -0.7 59.0 2.1
January 44.3 -0.7 57.7 -2.2
February 44.2 -0.2 57.7 0.0
March 44.0 0.4 58.3 0.7
Source: Reserve Bank of India
28