Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
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1346 1348 1350 1352 1354 1356 1358 1360 1362 1364 1366 1368 1370 1372 1374 1376 1378
National Circumstances (II)
Trend of urban & rural household between 1968-1998
15000000
12500000
10000000
7500000
Rural
5000000
2500000 Urbun
0
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46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
National Circumstances (III)
Trend of GDP growth by sector (bn. Rials- at constant 1982 prices)
16000
14000
Se rvi ce s
12000
10000 C onstructi on
W ate r,
8000 El e ctri ci ty
and Gas O il
6000
Manufacturi
ng
4000
Mi ni ng
2000
Agri cul ture
0 10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 5
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
National Circumstances (IV)
Share of different economic sub-sectors in GDP in 1990
(%)
Services
29% Agriculture
29%
Mining
1%
Construction
4%
Manufacturing
15%
Water,
Electricity and O il
10/28/03 Gas www.climate-change.ir
20% 6
2%
National Circumstances (V)
Share of different economic sub-sectors in GDP in 2000
(%)
Agriculture
16%
Mining
1%
Manufacturing
13%
Se rvice s
56% O il
8%
Wate r,
Ele ctricity and
C onstruction Gas
5% 1%
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National Circumstances (VI)
Trend of per capita GDP (,000 Rial-constant 1982 prices)
350
310
270
230
190
export (MBOE)
Production Import Export Dome stic Supply
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0 10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 9
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
National Circumstances (VIII)
Trend of energy intensity
(BOE/Mn. Rial - at constant 1982 prices)
Primary Energy Final Energy
56
52
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
1970 10/28/031975 1980www.climate-change.ir
1985 1990 1995 2000 10
National Circumstances (IX)
Share of different sectors in the total energy demand in
2000 (%)
Re f ine ry
4%
In d u s t r y
18%
Co m m e rc ia l
Re s ide nt ia l 5%
21%
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Impact of Response Measures
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Impact of Response Measures
Impact on Iran’s Economy in “No Flexibility Scenario”
No Flexibility
Revenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensation
(Billions of 1995 USD) (Billions of 1995 USD)
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Impact of Response Measures
Impact on Iran’s Economy in “Tax Cut Scenario”
Tax Cut
Revenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensation
(Billions of 1995 USD) (Billions of 1995 USD)
With US -3 1.76 45
Without US 1.6 0.4 0*
*Zero value indicates that no compensation is needed
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Impact of Response Measures
Impact on Iran’s Economy in “ Flexibility with CDM Scenario ”
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Impact of Response Measures
Impact of Response Measures on Iranian Economy (USD billions)
2
1.62
1.5
0.5
-0.5
-1
-0.94
10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 19
Long-term projection of temperature
and precipitation in Iran
Temperature :
• 1°C to 1.5°C at low emission rate.
• 4.1°C to 5°C if the emission rate maintains at the
present level.
• 5.9°C to 7.7°C at high emission rate.
Precipitation:
• -11% to 19.1% of the baselines for low emission rate,
• -30.9% to 50% of the baselines for medium emission
rate,
• -58% to 80% of thewww.climate-change.ir
10/28/03
baselines for high emission rate.
21
Vulnerability (Water resource)
Water balance and total precipitation in the
country (billion cubic meters)
Evapotranspirati
on
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(294)
71%
Vulnerability Assessment
(Water resource)
Sea level rise and infiltration of salt water into underground water
resources
Increased vaporization from the rivers due to higher temperatures which
result in drying out the rivers
Variations in intensity and the magnitude of precipitation (In 53%
of the recorded stations flood index has increased)
Decreased volume and deteriorated water quality of underground
reservoirs due to drought and increased surface vaporization
which result in higher treatment costs
Changes in precipitation from snow to rain and changes in melting
patterns 10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 23
Vulnerability (Water resource)
Variation of runoff with respect to the variation of
temperature and rainfall in selected main basins
Precipitation (P)
Basin Temp. (T)
Name
-40% -10% P +10% +40%
+6
10/28/03 -67.9 www.climate-change.ir
-41.7 -30 -18.0 28.6
24
Adaptation Measures
(Water resource)
-Water conservation in all sectors
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Adaptation Measures
(Water resource)
Other Irrigated
27% Cultivation
30%
Garden
8% Rain fed
Cultivation
10/28/03 35%
www.climate-change.ir 27
Vulnerability Assessment
Agriculture and Food Security
10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 28
Adaptation Measures
(Agriculture and Food Security)
- Historically adaptive [for example: use of underground
canals, or “Ghanats”]
- Development of new crop (early maturing type) varieties
- Deep tillage
- Timeliness of tillage
- Construction of small scale reservoirs and dams
- Enclose the irrigation canals
- Reuse of drainage water
- Pressurized irrigation systems
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- Leaching of salt affected soils
Vulnerability Assessment
Costal Area & Low Land
Caspian sea
Wetland
Others
South Caspian shore
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Vulnerability Assessment
Costal Area & Low Land
Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf Ecological sensitive areas of the
Coastal wetland and mud flats (D.O.E., 1993)
(Danehkar et al., 1996) Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman
Marine turtle habitats (Danehkar et al., 1996) (Danehkar & Porvakhshouri, 1997)
Mangrove forest (D.O.E., 1993) Perl oyster habitat (D.O.E. 1993) Wildlife shelter
Sea grass (D.O.E., 1993) Perl oyster fishing ground (D.O.E., 1993) International wetland
Coral reef islands (D.O.E., 1993) Estunries (Nabavi et al., 1994) Biosphere reserve
10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 31
Vulnerability Assessment
Coastal Areas
■ The effects of sea level rise are:
■ Changes in geomorphology of the coastal
areas
■ Damages to oil and gas installations
■ Salt water intrusion into the drinking water
resources
■ Changes in job market and shift to illegal
traffic of goods
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Vulnerability Assessment
(Power Generation)
10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 33
Adaptation Measures
(Power Generation)
Diversification of industrial activities and sources of
foreign revenues.
• Prevention of gas flaring and venting.
• Use of dry cooling systems in power plants.
• Expansion of combined cycles in power plants.
• Development of co-generation.
• Expansion of hydropower capacity.
10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 34
Vulnerability Assessment
(Forestry)
- Intensification of forest land erosion, particularly
in the arid and semi-arid areas
- Changes in the hydrological cycles
- Retrogression of forests from the sea and
destruction due to the sea level rise
- Increase of fire danger in forests
- Unsuitable environment for wildlife
10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 35
Adaptation Measures
(Forestry)
- Rehabilitation, development and treatment of forest
resources
- Afforestation
- Balancing forest harvesting volume with forest
growth and forest ecological capacity
- Forest tree improvement and use of fast growing
species for reforestation
10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 36
Adaptation Measures
(Forestry)
10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 37
Vulnerability assessment
Public Health
The following diseases have shown increasing
trend in this country:
Malaria
Leishmaniasis
Cholera
Rodents infection
10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 38
Vulnerability (Public Health )
Exposure rate to Malaria(left) & Leishmaniasis in recent years
Actual Regression
Actual Regression
145 40
38
Number of Case per 100,000 Person
34
105
32
30
85
28
65 26
24
45 10/28/03 22
www.climate-change.ir 39
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 200