Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Socialist Republic of Vietnam
and East Sea
Professor Carl Thayer
Nhom Nghien Cuu Van Hoa Dong Nai‐Cuu Long
InternaConal FuncCon Centre
Canley Vale, N.S.W
May 22, 2011
Outline
• 11th NaConal Congress of the Vietnam
Communist Party (January 2011)
• ElecCons for the 13th NaConal Assembly
(May 22)
• East Sea issues
11th NaConal Party Congress
• Adopted 4 key policy documents
– Bao Cao Chinh Tri
– Cuong linh xay dung dat nuoc trong thoi ky qua do
len Chu nghia xa hoi (PoliCcal PlaTorm on Building
the NaCon During the TransiConal Period to
Socialism)
– Dieu Le Dang
– Chien Luoc Phat Trien Kinh‐Te‐Xa Hoi 2011‐2020
• Elected new Central CommiWee
Party Membership by Region %
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
SMD SCV SCH S NTB NRR NCV N
South Mekong Delta, South Central Vietnam, Southern Central Highlands, South;
North Tay Bac, North Red River, North Central Vietnam, North
11th Central CommiWee
• New Central CommiWee of 175 full and 25
alternate members – largest in history
• Delegates given more names than posiCons to
be filled including names of those who were
nominated at the congress
• Orderly generaConal change 58% of members
were incumbents
• Sectoral representaCon shi`ed to provincials
GeneraConal Change on the VCP
Central CommiWee 2011
Full members
retained
Alternate members
promoted
New full members
Sectoral ComposiCon of the
Central CommiWee 2011
11% 9%
Senior Party
Central Party‐
State
38%
Secondary/
42%
Provincial
Armed Forces
Princelings
• Nong Quoc Tuan (son of Nong Duc Manh)
• Nguyen Thanh Nghi (son of Nguyen Tan Dung)
• Tran Sy Thanh (son of Nguyen Sinh Hung)
• Nguyen Xuan An (son of Nguyen Van Chi)
• Pham Binh Minh (son of Nguyen Co Thach)
• Nguyen Chi Vinh (son of Nguyen Chi Thanh)
• Tran Binh Minh (son of Tran Lam)
Politburo
• Outgoing Politburo recommended 17
members but only 14 elected
• 9 incumbents (4 with fixed posts and 5 le` for
five key leadership posiCons, 1 term required])
• 5 new members including first woman ethnic
minority
• Nguyen Phu Trong elected party Secretary
General (given age exempCon)
New VCP Politburo N = 14
• Truong Tang Sang • To Huy Rua
• Phung Quang Thanh • Pham Quang Nghi
• Nguyen Tan Dung • Tran Dai Quang
• Nguyen Sinh Hung • Tong Thi Phong
• Nguyen Phu Trong • Ngo Van Du
• Le Hong Anh • Dinh The Huynh
• Le Thanh Hai • Nguyen Xuan Phuc
North: 6, Centre 4, and South 4
Politburo Work Assignments
• Nguyen Phu Trong – VCP Secretary General
• To Huy Rua – head CC OrganisaCon
Commission
• Phung Quang Thanh – Minister of NaConal
Defence
• Le Hong Anh – Minister of Public Security
• Pham Quang Nghi – Hanoi Party Secretary
• Le Thanh Hai – Ho Chi Minh City Party
Secretary
Losers
• Politburo member, Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister for Foreign Affairs Pham Gia Khiem
• Politburo member Ho Duc Viet
• Le Doan Hop Minister of InformaCon and
CommunicaCons (Nghe An facCon)
Ministers not Re‐elected to CC
1. Nguyen Hong Quan ‐ ConstrucCon
2. Pham Gia Khiem – Foreign Affairs
3. Nguyen Quoc Trieu – Health
4. Tran Van Tuan – Home Affairs (Interior)
5. Le Doan Hop ‐ InformaCon and CommunicaCons
6. Pham Khoi Nguyen ‐ Natural Resources and
Environment
7. Vo Hong Phuc ‐ Planning and Investment
8. Hoang Van Phong ‐ Science and Technology
9. Tran Van Truyen – State InspecCon CommiWee
10. Ho Nghia Dung ‐ TransportaCon
Secretary
General
State Prime
President Minister
Permanent Chair NaConal
Secretary Assembly
Party Standing
Secretariat CommiWee
Party –v‐ State
• Leadership selecCon of state leaders a two
step process
• Step 1: win elecCon to VCP Central CommiWee
• Step 2: win elecCon as deputy to the NaConal
Assembly
– State President
– Prime Minister
– Chair NaConal Assembly Standing CommiWee
NaConal Assembly ElecCons May 22nd
• 832 candidates from 1,085 nominees
– All members of Politburo are candidates
• 15 self‐nominated candidates from 83
– 4 each in Hanoi and TP HCM
• 13th NaConal Assembly (July 21st)
– Truong Tan Sang – state president
– Nguyen Tan Dung – prime minister
– Nguyen Sinh Hung – Chairman NA SC
Five Deputy Prime
Ministers
PM Nguyen
Tan Dung
Born 1946 Born 1944 Born 1942 Born 1953 Born 1959
Conclusion
• Era of party strong man long over
• InsCtuConal interests miCgate against strong
party leader
• State (Cabinet and Office of Prime Minister)
has grown more powerful than party
• Possible fricCon between prime minister and
key party elite and state president
Growing Power of the Office of the
Prime Minister
State Pr
esident,
Secretary
General
, Prime
Minister
Equilibrium
Recent Developments in the East Sea
2.Vietnam’s MariCme
Development Strategy to 2015
Sansha County‐
level City, Hainan
Island [Paracels,
Zhongsha
(Macclesfield
Bank) and Spratly
Islands]
established
November 2007
Annual Chinese Unilateral Fishing Ban
May 16-August 1, 2011
Extended ConCnental Shelf May 2009
China’s
Response to
Claims for
Extended
ConCnental
Shelf
17th ASEAN Regional Forum
July 2010
“The U.S. supports the 2002 ASEAN‐China
DeclaraCon on Conduct of ParCes in
the South China Sea. We encourage
the parCes to reach agreement on a full
code of conduct. The U.S. is prepared
to facilitate iniCaCves and confidence
building measures consistent with the
declaraCon. “
– Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
• 11 of 27 members voice concern
ASEAN Defence Ministers MeeCng Plus
October 2010
• South China Sea not on formal agenda
or included in final statement
– Included in Chairman’s statement
• 7 ministers raised South China Sea
• “It is their problem, it is not our
problem.”
– Rear Admiral Guan Youfei, deputy director of
the external affairs office in China’s Defence
Ministry
Status of the DeclaraCon on Conduct
of ParCes in the South China Sea (DOC)
• Bilateral discussion China‐Vietnam
• ASEAN‐China Joint Working Group to
Implement the DOC revived
– Previously considered on “life support”
– Now discussing a code of conduct for the South
China Sea
• Indonesia as ASEAN Chair has raised issue
Conclusion
PosiCve Developments
• China has ceased pressure on
internaConal oil and gas companies
• Decrease in harassment of Vietnamese
fishermen
• Upturn in China‐US relaCons laTE 2010
– US downplays another “USNS Impeccable
incident”
• Grounds for cauCous opCmism on DOC
Conclusion
NegaCve Developments
• China increasing capacity to enforce
sovereignty claims
• ConCnued development of Yulin Naval
Base
• ConCnued lack of China’s defence
transparency
• Anxiety about decline of US primacy
Recent Developments in the
Socialist Republic of Vietnam
and East Sea
Professor Carl Thayer
Nhom Nghien Cuu Van Hoa Dong Nai‐Cuu Long
InternaConal FuncCon Centre
Canley Vale, N.S.W
May 22, 2011