Daily Breakfast Spread, 6 June 2011

Daily Breakfast Spread

DBS Group Research 6 June 2011

Monday’s The Week Ahead

Greater China, Korea
• KR: Market opinions are divided about the Bank of Korea’s rate decision this Friday.
The economic data released last week appeared to be too weak to support the case
of a rate hike. Exports levelled off in May. Domestic demand indicators for April
have softened broadly, ranging from equipment investment, construction
investment to private consumption. CPI inflation also stabilized at 4.1% in May
thanks to the correction in international oil and local food prices.
The steady uptrend was seen in May core inflation (3.5%, up from 3.2% in April),
suggesting that the cost passthrough from producers to consumers is still ongoing.
This is because the accumulated cost pressures among upstream producers are still
high (PPI: 7.3%), as a result of the persistent surge in global commodity prices in the
past several quarters, in combination with a loose monetary stance as reflected in a
weak won and low interest rates. The BOK has not boosted interest rates thus far in
2Q. The current short-term rate level of 3.0% remains significantly lower than the
level of inflation. The presence of negative real rates helps explain the weakness in
the won.
Core inflation can ease eventually if growth in aggregate demand continues
slowing. A sustained downturn in global commodity prices could also help alleviate
pressures on core inflation. However, there is currently no evidence showing
formation of a trend of slowdown. Global oil prices have also stopped falling in the
later part of May. While the growth weakness in 2Q has obliged us to revise the full-
year GDP forecast slightly to 4.1% from 4.5%, we continue to expect a growth
rebound in 2H when global uncertainties dissipate and business confidence is rebuilt
in Korea. For now, we think it remains appropriate for policymakers to consider
closing the rate gap with inflation to minimize the negative consequence of
negative real interest rates. We maintain the forecast of a 25bps hike at this Friday’s
US Fed expectations
MPC meeting, followed by modest tightening of 25bps per quarter in 2H.
Implied fed funds rate

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Southeast Asia, India

Market
Current 0.17 0.23 0.31 • MY: Industrial production index for Apr11 is on tap this week and a modest 3.3%
1wk ago 0.17 0.24 0.33 YoY rise is expected, up from 2.3% in the previous month. Once again, base effect is
DBS 0.25 0.50 0.75 at work which gives the illusion that industrial activity has been lackluster. As a
Source: Bloomberg fed fund matter of fact, absolute output level has improved significantly from the bottom of
futures the cycle in February. Nonetheless, a modest month-on-month decline of about 2%
nsa has been factored into our forecast to account for any possible production dip
Notes: Given a FF target rate of
0.25%, an implied FF rate of due to electronics supply chain disruption arising from the calamity in Japan.
0.30 is interpreted roughly as However, April’s export data released last Friday saw exports to Japan increased by
the market pricing in a 20% about 35% YoY, due mainly to exports of LNG. It seems that the nuclear crisis in
chance of a Fed hike to 0.50% Japan has probably benefited fuel product exporters such as Malaysia as a result of
from 0.25% (30 is 1/5th of the
distance to 50 from 25). DBS
increased demand for fossil fuel (i.e. fuel oil and natural gas) in Japan. This may to
expectations are presented in some extent boost industrial activity and help mitigate any possible downside drag
discrete blocks of 25bps, i.e., the coming from the other industries. Moreover, the subsequent rebuilding effort in
Fed moves or it does not. See Japan could well provide additional impetus to industrial output in the later part of
also “Policy rate forecasts” the year.
below.
• ID: Bank Indonesia is widely expected to keep the overnight reference rate
unchanged at 6.75% when they meet this Thursday. May inflation data out last
week have strengthened the case of no rate change this week. Headline CPI
inflation has eased further to 6.0% YoY in May from 6.2% in April, thanks to the
continued declines in food prices backed by local harvest. On the other hand,
growth seems to be moderating in 2Q amid a less favourable global economic

1
Daily Breakfast Spread, 6 June 2011

climate, which also means BI may prefer to take a cautious approach to monetary
policy at this point. Owing to the supply chain disruption in Japan, motor vehicle
sales in Indonesia have fallen significantly by -6.9% YoY in April. Exports remained
robust at 37.3% as of April, but a slowdown is expected for May in line with the
downward correction in global commodity cycle.
The faster-than-expected declines in food prices in 2Q obliged us to lower our
whole-year inflation forecast slightly to 6.7% from 7.0%. But we still caution
against inflation risks in 2H. Note that consumers’ inflation expectations for the
next three months have jumped by 8 full points in May, based on the latest
consumer sentiment survey conduced by the central bank. Traditionally inflation
expectation index correlates well with the actual CPI (Chart). Indeed, the
downward trend in food prices has already slowed in May compared to in Mar-Apr,
along with the local harvest passing the peak. A rebound in food prices is expected
from 3Q onwards, considering the end of the harvest season and the arrival of the
Ramadan festival. Meanwhile, despite the drop in global oil prices in May, there is
no guarantee that oil prices will not rebound in 2H. As the gap between the
unsubsidized and subsided fuel prices in Indonesia remains wide (comparable to
the gap in mid-2008), the government may still consider a fuel subsidy cut in 2H.
The finance ministry
plans to discuss the
fuel subsidy policy ID: Inflation & inflation expectation
during the mid-year % YoY point
budget review
scheduled in July. 8 190
Besides food and oil,
we also expect core 7 180
inflation to pick up in
2H, mirroring a 6
170
positive output gap
5
and faster growth in
160
money supply. As
4
such, we maintain Latest: May11
our view that BI will 150
3
be under pressure to CPI (LHS)
resume tightening in 2 140
2H. We continue to Inflation expectation: consumers
expect a total of 1 130
75bps rate hikes in
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11
the remainder of this
year.
• IN: In line with the downside risks to GDP growth and upside risks to inflation
flagged in this space over the past couple of months, we are revising our GDP and
inflation forecasts. We expect GDP growth to ease to 7.5% in FY2011/12 (ends Mar)
and in 2012/13, lower than the 8% expected earlier. Inflation, factoring in a 10%
hike in diesel and LPG prices, is expected to average 8% in 2011/12 and 7% in 2012/
13.
The main worry relates to inflation and the large fiscal gap. The continued upside
surprises in inflation despite significant tightening in monetary policy point to a
larger structural component in inflation. In addition to the lagging and weak
infrastructure, possible reasons for this include the deterioration in the investment
climate and investment and the simultaneous support to consumption from several
government policies (direct income tax reduction, NREGA, fuel subsidies). At the
same time, growth in food production (2%) is significantly lagging growth in real
per capita GDP (6%) and thus food demand. This means, even if GDP growth is less
dependent on agriculture and less sensitive to monsoon than before, agriculture
still indirectly can and does impact overall economy – via higher food inflation that
ultimately leads to higher overall inflation and thus interest rates (and slower
growth). There are two major worries over the inflation outlook ahead. First, the
gap between food production and demand — the likely cause for rising food
inflation — is unlikely to close, implying a real risk that expectations for food
inflation to return to pre-2008 trends (5% annual rise) remain just that. Second, a
big gap has emerged between domestic fuel prices and global crude oil prices. We
estimate that retail fuel prices (excluding freely floating fuels which constitute 20%
of mineral oil component of WPI) are priced on average for Brent crude of USD 75 /
bbl. At the minimum, further rises in oil prices have to be passed on entirely to

2
Daily Breakfast Spread, 6 June 2011

consumers and more likely, given what we think is a precarious fiscal position,
regular upward adjustments to retail fuel prices are in order (probably over the
next several years) to trim the fiscal deficit. Thus, even after this upward revision to
inflation, we still judge inflation risks to lie to the upside. This means inflation and
interest rates are likely to be well supported in 2011 and 2012, dragging growth
well below recent trend rate of 8%. While the investment climate can be improved
with a more pro-business stance by the government, it always takes much more
than a few quarters or a year to see the effect on actual supply. Thus, it is difficult
to envisage the economy escaping some ‘pain’ in the short-run.

G3
• US: Job growth has slumped back to January levels; a bit lower in fact. Worse,
investors may recall that January was an awful month weather wise, so even that
comparison is kind to the May outcome reported Friday: payrolls expanded by 54k,
the least since Sep10 (when they fell by 29k).
Markets would have reacted more dramatically had it not been for the service
sector ISM, which rose by more than 2 points. Thank heaven for small favors. In
fact, it’s a bigger favor than it seems: not only did the ISM go up, but the service
sector is sort of the supply-side equivalent of consumption: it’s big and slow-
moving and carries a lot of weight and momentum. So a two point rise in such a
large mass is good news indeed – especially when it was driven by an orders
component which rose by 4 points (to 56.8) and an employment component which
rose by 2 points (to 54).
There’s absolutely nothing on the data calendar this week, save for the jobless
claims that appear every week. They’ll be interesting but not that interesting. They
have started returning to the good side of things, after having taken a 6-week
detour in the wrong direction. Last week they fell to 422k (sa), some 50k better
than one month ago but remain a far cry from the 375k-390k reading that
prevailed in February and March. Only a decisive move below 410k this week
would raise any favorable eyebrows. The thing is, even a small improvement won’t
come easy what with labor markets so prone to sentiment and the latter moving in
the wrong direction right now.
There’s a load of Fed speeches on tap, though, and they will be interesting indeed.
Plosser, Fisher, Hoenig, Lockart, Dudley and (chairman) Bernanke himself are all
scheduled to opine on matters that will pale in comparison to the Q&A sessions
that will follow their speeches where reporters will, to a woman, all zero in on
whether the Fed still intends to put QE2 to bed or whether it might be putting QE3
into the oven instead. Officials so far have been stunningly silent about the slide in
the data over the past 6-8 weeks. No doubt they’re in an awkward situation: no
sooner had they intimated (at the last FOMC meeting on 27Apr) that QE2 would be
the end of QE period when things started to go downhill. The poor data reached a
crescendo last week and the Fed now has no choice but to speak or let everyone
and their sister do their speaking for them.
The interesting question, or one of them anyway, will be whether the Fed speaks as
one or as many. Two months ago, there was a lot of democratic disagreement over
whether the Fed was being too slow in ending QE2. Bernanke prevailed (in
extending it to its natural end) and he sure looks good now. The question remains
as to what “the Fed” now thinks about the drop in the data since the last FOMC
and what it means for policy. A lot of democratic discourse might not be good for
markets just now, given that 10Y Treasury yields are down by 60bps since April (to
2.99%) and the SPX has fallen for five straight weeks. But a United Front, whatever
that might mean in terms of content and policy projection, seems impossible at this
juncture. All we know for sure is that officials will repeat what they have always
repeated since the start of the crisis back in August 2007: the Fed will do whatever
is necessary to support the recovery. Good to hear. For the 25th time.

Currencies
• FX: We no longer expect the Vietnamese dong to devalue this year, and see USD/
VND stable at 20500 in the medium-term. The market is telling us two things about
the dong. First, the unofficial exchange rate, which has led past devaluations, is
encouraged that the dong is stabilizing from the government’s efforts to improve

3
Daily Breakfast Spread, 6 June 2011

dong liquidity. Since April 25, the unofficial rate has been trading mostly below the
official fixing. On June 2, SBV instructed all state-owned companies to, with effect
from July 1, to start selling their foreign currencies to banks. Apart from this, banks
were also asked to increase their reserve ratio for individual foreign currency
deposits with terms up to 12 months to 7% from 6%, while terms longer than 12
months were lifted to 5% from 4%. Effectively, this should further lower the
interest rate ceiling on US deposits to 2%, which last fell in March, to 3% from more
than 5%. Second, the non-deliverable forward market is still wary that Vietnam has
yet to restore macroeconomic stability, in particular, the urgency to rein in double-
digit inflation and reverse the widening in the trade deficit. The government
expects some progress from earlier measures to start showing up from June/July.
Until this materializes, ratings agencies are unlikely to let down their guard on the
uncertainties confronting Vietnam’s balance of payments. For now, markets can
only be considered as giving the Vietnamese dong the benefit of the doubt.

USD/VND – getting the benefit of the doubt

24000

23000 1Y NDF outright

22000
Unofficial FX rate
21000

20000

19000

18000 Official fixing

17000

16000
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Fixed income
• US: The release of the May US employment report last Friday put a strong bid in
the Treasury market immediately after it showed the unemployment rate rising
from 9.0% to 9.1% last month. Despite that, 10Y yields ended the day down by
only 4bps at 2.99%, way above intra-session session lows. Yields are obviously not
in free fall and, while talk about QE3 is intensifying, the bond market is not pricing
in more stimulus decisively at this point. The rally over the past two months reflects
the deterioration in the growth outlook and the rise in the probability that the Fed
will keep rates low throughout 2012. It was front-end driven and that does not
allow the conclusion that it reflects bets on QE3. What would indicate bets on QE3,
is a sharp flattening in the 2Y/10Y curve from current levels, similar to the flattening
move seen in August last year. It is not at all clear that this month will bring that
kind of curve move. In fact, debt dynamics are gaining more weight as a factor in
the USD yield outlook, suggesting a steeper, not flatter curve. As the EU and the
IMF approved the fifth installment of Greece’s 110 billion-euro bailout and an
upgrade to the aid package is likely, Europe is making progress on dealing with its
debt problems, while the US struggles to increase its debt limit – at least there is
now considerably less uncertainty in Europe relative to the US. Efforts to reduce the
budget deficit in the US are not producing enough results, which means that the
risk of the US loosing its AAA credit rating is real. So, there is a growing chance that
long-end yields rise in the US, without a major selloff in shorter maturities on rate
hike fears. Ultimately, with the end of QE2 and the demand/supply balance in the
Treasury market deteriorating, low longer-term Treasury yields are sustainable only
if recession fears and deflation concerns return, which is unlikely. What does all this
mean for Asia? It means that foreign capital will likely continue to flow into the
region, putting downward pressure on interest rates. But in the near-term, it also

4
Daily Breakfast Spread, 6 June 2011

means that the outlook for those markets that have seen bonds rally in 2Q11 is
becoming cloudier. We still think that Treasury yields are more likely to rise than fall
on a 3-month horizon and a selloff in US Treasuries would mean steepening
pressure for Asian yield curves.

Looking back
• US mkts: US stocks fell on Friday on a weak May employment report. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average fell 0.79% to 12151.26 and the Nasdaq closed 1.46% lower
at 2732.78. Treasury yields fell 3bps to 0.43% in the 2Y sector and 4bps to 2.99% in
the 10Y sector.

5
Daily Breakfast Spread, 6 June 2011

Economic calendar
Event Consensus Actual Previous
Jun 7 (Tue)
PH: CPI (May) 5.1% y/y 4.5% y/y
TW: CPI (May) 1.6% y/y 1.32% y/y
EZ: retail sales (Apr) 0.3% m/m sa -1.0% m/m sa

Jun 8 (Wed)
KR: GDP (1Q, F) 1.4% q/q sa
-- 4.2% y/y
JP: adj currenct acc (Apr) JPY 266bn JPY 752.7bn
TW: trade balance (May) USD 2.53bn USD 2.96bn
-- exports 7.4% y/y 24.6% y/y
-- imports 11.1% y/y 25.7% y/y
EZ: GDP (1Q, P) 0.8% q/q sa 0.8% q/q sa
-- 2.5% y/y 2.5% y/y

Jun 9 (Thur)
JP: GDP (1Q, F) -3.1% q/q saar -3.7% q/q saar
MY: industrial production (Apr) 2.4% y/y
US: initial jobless claims (Jun) 419K 422K
US: trade balance (Apr) -USD 48.9bn -USD 48.2bn

Jun 10 (Fri)
PH: exports (Apr) 9.0% y/y 4.0% y/y
CN: trade balance (May) USD 19.8bn USD 11.42bn
-- exports 22.0% y/y 29.9% y/y
-- imports 22.5% y/y 21.8% y/y
IN: industrial production (Apr) 7.3% y/y

Central bank policy calendar

Policy
Date Country Rate Current Consensus DBS Actual
This week
09-Jun Ezone 7-day refi rate 1.25% 1.25% 1.25%
09-Jun ID o/n reference rate 6.75% 6.75% 6.75%
10-Jun KR 7 day repo rate 3.00% 3.13% 3.25%

Next week
14-Jun JP o/n call rate 0.10% 0.10%
16-Jun IN o/n repo 7.25%
16-Jun PH rev repo 4.50%
17-Jun EZ ECB monthly report (Jun)

Last week
01-Jun TH 1 day repo 2.75% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

6
 Daily Breakfast Spread, 6 June 2011

GDP & inflation forecasts

GDP growth, % YoY CPI inflation, % YoY
2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
US 0.0 -2.6 2.9 2.5 3.0 3.8 -0.3 1.6 2.6 2.2
Japan -1.2 -6.3 4.0 1.0 2.4 1.4 -1.4 -0.4 0.5 0.7
Eurozone 0.3 -4.0 1.7 1.9 1.7 3.3 0.3 1.6 2.6 1.9
Indonesia 6.0 4.6 6.1 6.4 6.1 9.8 4.8 5.1 6.7 6.3
Malaysia 4.6 -1.7 7.2 5.5 5.6 5.4 0.6 1.7 3.1 2.4
Philippines 3.6 1.0 7.3 5.5 5.2 9.3 3.2 3.8 5.6 5.2
Singapore 1.4 -1.3 14.5 7.0 6.5 6.5 0.6 2.8 4.2 3.0
Thailand 2.5 -2.2 7.8 5.0 5.0 5.5 -0.8 3.3 4.0 4.0
Vietnam 6.2 5.3 6.8 6.5 7.0 23.1 7.0 9.2 18.5 8.0
China 9.6 9.2 10.3 9.5 9.0 5.9 -0.7 3.3 4.5 4.0
Hong Kong 2.1 -2.7 6.8 5.0 4.5 4.3 0.5 2.4 5.0 4.5
Taiwan 0.7 -1.9 10.8 5.0 4.3 3.5 -0.9 1.0 1.8 1.6
Korea 2.3 0.2 6.1 4.1 4.1 4.7 2.8 3.0 4.4 3.2
India* 6.8 8.0 8.5 7.5 7.5 8.4 3.6 9.5 8.0 7.0
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Research

Policy & exchange rate forecasts

Policy interest rates, eop Exchange rates, eop
current 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 current 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
US 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 … … … … …
Japan 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 80.4 81 80 79 78
Eurozone 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 1.464 1.42 1.46 1.50 1.52
Indonesia 6.75 6.75 7.00 7.50 8.00 8,528 8,800 8,750 8,700 8,675
Malaysia 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.00 2.92 2.87 2.82 2.79
Philippines 4.50 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.00 43.2 42.0 41.0 40.0 39.8
Singapore n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.23 1.23 1.21 1.19 1.18
Thailand 3.00 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.00 30.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.1
Vietnam^ 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 12.00 20,555 21,240 21,480 21,720 21,770
China* 6.31 6.56 6.81 7.06 7.06 6.48 6.46 6.38 6.30 6.25
Hong Kong n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.78 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75
Taiwan 1.75 1.88 2.13 2.38 2.63 28.7 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.8
Korea 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 1076 1020 1000 980 970
India 7.25 7.25 7.75 8.00 8.00 44.8 43.5 43.0 42.5 41.8
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate

Market prices
Policy rate 10Y bond yield FX Equities
Current Current 1wk chg Current 1wk chg Index Current 1wk chg
(%) (%) (bps) (%) (%)
US 0.25 3.00 -8 73.7 -1.7 S&P 500 1,300 -1.9
Japan 0.10 1.13 0 80.4 0.7 Topix 817 -1.0
Eurozone 1.25 3.06 7 1.464 2.5 Eurostoxx 2,556 -2.4
Indonesia 6.75 7.37 -3 8528 0.4 JCI 3,844 0.8
Malaysia 3.00 4.00 -1 3.00 0.7 KLCI 1,560 0.7
Philippines 4.50 6.65 7 43.2 0.3 PCI 4,298 0.5
Singapore Ccy policy 2.32 -2 1.227 0.7 FSSTI 3,146 0.3
Thailand 3.00 3.74 #N/A 30.2 0.3 SET 1,058 -0.9
China 6.31 … … 6.48 0.2 S'hai Comp 2,728 0.7
Hong Kong Ccy policy 2.29 -8 7.78 0.0 HSI 22,950 -0.7
Taiwan 1.75 1.42 -2 28.7 0.6 TWSE 9,046 2.7
Korea 3.00 4.21 -3 1076 0.4 Kospi 2,113 0.6
India 7.25 8.29 -12 44.8 0.8 Sensex 18,376 0.6
Source: Bloomberg

7
 Daily Breakfast Spread, 6 June 2011

Contributors:
Economics
David Carbon Singapore (65) 6878 9548
Ramya Singapore (65) 6878 5282
Ma Tieying Singapore (65) 6878 2408
Irvin Seah Singapore (65) 6878 6727
Chris Leung Hong Kong (852) 3668 5694
Currencies / Fixed income
Philip Wee Singapore (65) 6878 4033
Jens Lauschke Singapore (65) 6224 2574
Nathan Chow Hong Kong (852) 3668 5693

Administrative / technical support

Violet Lee Singapore (65) 6878 5281

Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee on 65-6878-5281

Client Contacts
Singapore Japan
DBS Bank (65) 6878 8888 DBS Tokyo (81 3) 3213 4411
DBS Asset Management (65) 6878 7801
DBS Vickers Securities (65) 6533 9688
Korea
The Islamic Bank of Asia (65) 6878 5522 DBS Seoul (82 2) 339 2660

China Malaysia
DBS Beijing (86 010) 5839 7527 DBS Kuala Lumpur (6 03) 2148 8338
DBS Dongguan (86 769) 2211 7868 DBS Labuan (6 08) 7595 500
DBS Fuzhou (86 591) 8754 4080 Hwang-DBS Penang (6 04) 263 6996
DBS Guangzhou (86 20) 3884 8010 Philippines
DBS Hangzhou (86 571) 8788 1288 DBS Manila (63 2) 845 5112
DBS Shanghai (86 21) 3896 8888
DBS Shenzhen (86 755) 8269 1043 Taiwan
DBS Suzhou (86 512) 6288 8090 DBS Chungching (886 4) 2296 0088
DBS Tianjin (86 22) 2339 3073 DBS Kaohsiung (886 7) 323 2362
DBS Taichung (886 4) 2230 9188
Hong Kong DBS Tainan (886 6) 213 3939
DBS Hong Kong (852) 3668 0808 DBS Taipei (886 2) 8101 0598
DBS Macau (853) 2832 9338 DBS Taoyuan (886 3) 339 6060
DBS Asia Capital (852) 3668 1148
DBS Asia Capital Shanghai (86-21) 6888 6820 Thailand
DBS Bangkok (66 2) 636 6364
India
DBS Delhi (91 11) 3041 8888 United Kingdom
DBS Mumbai (91 22) 6638 8888 DBS London (44 20) 7489 6550

Indonesia UAE
DBS Jakarta (62 021) 390 3366 DBS Dubai (97 1) 4364 1800
DBS Medan (62 061) 3000 8999
USA
DBS Surabaya (62 021) 531 9661
DBS Los Angeles (1 213) 627 0222

8
 Daily Breakfast Spread, 6 June 2011

Recent research
SG 2011: Above expectations 29 Nov 10
CN: A case study of price control on 20 May 11
electricity KR: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 11 Nov 10

CN: Good value in CNY forwards 18 May 11 EUR: One for the bulls 11 Nov 10

US: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 11 May 11 KRW: Stronger than consensus 3 Nov 10

CN: Latent risks facing China 9 May 11 ID: 2011 budget preview 1 Nov 10

SG: Election effect on policy 9 May 11 Asia: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 28 Oct 10

HK: Mild tightening at work 15 Apr 11 IN: Higher rates or higher inflation 26 Oct 10

KR: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 11 Apr 11 Asia: The six ways to absorb capital inflow 26 Oct 10

ID: The balance of payments outlook 8 Apr 11 MY: A step towards Vision 2020 18 Oct 10

FX: The CNH & its role in yuan reforms 7 Apr 11 IN: Rising growth potential 13 Oct 10

CN: The formation of Chinese wealth 1 Apr 11 ID: Inflows & monetary policy 13 Oct 10

CN: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 31 Mar 11 SG: It’s payback time 11 Oct 10

CN: The roller coaster ride continues 28 Mar 11 ID: Inflows drown fundamentals 8 Oct 10

CN: Offshore CNY progress check 24 Mar 11 Asia: Another day, another $2bn of inflow 7 Oct 10

SG: A well-calibrated budget 21 Feb 11 SG: Higher with or without tightening 7 Oct 10

CN: Inflation and labor productivity 21 Feb 11 HK’s inflection point as offshore CNY center 28 Sep 10

CN: CNY capital account liberalisation -recent 8 Feb 11 CN: Medium-term inflation outlook 27 Aug 10
developments and implications
IN: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 27 Aug 10
ID: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 2 Feb 11
SG: GDP contribution of the IRs 26 Aug 10
TW: Appreciation impact 28 Jan 11
FX: JPY intervention risk rising 18 Aug 10
IN: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 27 Jan 11
HK: How far can HKgo as China's 10 Aug 10
IN: Food inflation demand-driven 24 Jan 11 major Renminbi offshore center?

SG: Budget to tackle the gap 17 Jan 11 US Fed: Between a stock and bond place 10 Aug 10

US: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 11 Jan 11 China and US: Demand trumps supply 6 Aug 10

SG: Singapore attempts the impossible 6 Dec 10 CN: Implications of rising wages 4 Aug 10
(Part II)

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