Water Levels of the Great Lakes

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Water levels have fluctuated throughout the history of

the Great Lakes. Research has indicated that several
thousand years ago, water levels became so low that
the lakes were no longer interconnected as they are
currently. More recently, record low levels coincided
with the dust bowl years of the 1930s and a severe
drought in 1964. The lakes experienced extremely
high levels in 1986, and since that time, levels have
generally been declining. This decline has been a
concern because lower water levels are consistent with
most global climate change forecasts.

The Hydrologic Cycle

Precipitation
Low lake levels at Old Mission Point lighthouse, Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan
in July 2010. Photo: NOAA.

Percolation
Ru
no
Transpiration
ff Evaporation
Ground
water T
able
River
Great Lakes
Why Do Lake Levels Fluctuate?
Great Lakes water levels respond to changes in water supplies,
including precipitation, runoff from tributaries, and evaporation
from the lakes’ surfaces. The primary driving forces are
precipitation and evaporation. Lower precipitation leads to
lower runoff from the basin, and higher evaporation draws water
from the lakes causing levels to decline.
What are the Present Conditions?
Water levels in Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie dropped
sharply from 1997-1999 and have remained at relatively low
levels since that sudden decline. Following slight increases
in 2008 and 2009, levels in all these lakes dropped again
in 2010. Levels as of February 2011 are below those of
February 2010; Superior is approximately 0.3 meters lower,
Michigan-Huron approximately 0.5 meters lower, and Erie
approximately 0.2 meters lower. Lake Ontario is tightly
regulated and remains at levels similar to those of 2010.
The four graphs on the next page show yearly-averaged water
levels; they are updated through 2010.
For more information:
www.glerl.noaa.gov craig.stow@noaa.gov
NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
Who is Affected by Changing Lake Levels?
Record high water levels of 1986 affected many residents and
businesses located along the rivers that provide water to the
lakes and along the shoreline of the lakes themselves. In 1986,
the Tittabawassee River basin, which eventually empties into
Lake Huron, endured an extraordinary amount of rainfall in a
short period of time (up to 14 inches in 12 hours) resulting in
flooding. Heavy river flooding not only causes property damage
to businesses and residents, but water that runs off the land carries
pesticides and nutrients with it. Water quality of the runoff water
may affect the riverine and lakeshore ecosystems.
Water levels during the recent low episode (1997–2007) affected
many interests, including commercial navigation, recreational
boating, marinas, beaches, fishing, cottage and homeowners,
and the aquatic ecosystem. For example, in the year 2000 the
Lake Carriers that transport iron ore, coal, grain, and other raw
cargoes were forced into “light-
loading,” carrying 5-8 percent
less goods, sending prices
higher. Additionally, marinas
spent millions to dredge boat
slips, channels, and harbors
along Great Lakes coasts.
Nuclear and hydropower
plants that use Great Lakes
water for cooling and energy
generation, respectively, either
spent millions of dollars to
relocate their cooling pipes or
didn’t generate enough power High lake levels on Lake Michigan in 1986
to meet customers demands. caused severe erosion. Photo: NOAA
 184.5 Lake Superior 184.0 Lake Superior
605
603
Water level (meters, IGLD85)

Water level (feet, IGLD85)

604
184.0

Water level (meters, IGLD85)

183.5 602

Water level (feet, IGLD85)

603
601
183.5 602 183.0
600
601 Observed
95%
183.0 599
600 182.5 80%

Predicted
50%
Mean long−term water level (1860−2010) 598
Mean annual water level 599
182.5
20%

182.0 5%
597
1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010
A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N

2009 2010 2011

177.5 Lake Michigan−Huron 177.0 Lake Michigan−Huron

582
Water level (meters, IGLD85)

580

Water level (feet, IGLD85)

581
177.0

Water level (meters, IGLD85)

176.5 579

Water level (feet, IGLD85)

580
578
176.5 579
176.0
577
578 Observed

176.0 95%

577 576
175.5 80%

Predicted
Mean long−term water level (1860−2010) 50%

175.5 Mean annual water level 576 20%

575

175.0 5%
574
1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010
A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N

2009 2010 2011

What is IGLD85? Great Lakes water levels are measured from an
elevation reference point referred to as the International Great Lakes
Datum (1985). This datum is referenced to sea level as measured at What is the Outlook
Rimouski, Quebec, near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River. Every
25-30 years, the IGLD is changed to account for crustal movement–the
‘bouncing back’ of the earth’s crust from the weight of the glaciers. for 2011?
175.0 Lake Erie 574 175.0 Lake Erie 574
Water level (meters, IGLD85)

573
Water level (feet, IGLD85)

573
174.5
Water level (meters, IGLD85)

174.5

Water level (feet, IGLD85)

572 572

174.0 571
174.0 571

570 Observed
570
95%
173.5
569 173.5 80%
569
Predicted

50%
Mean long−term water level (1860−2010) 568
173.0 Mean annual water level 20%
568
173.0 5%

1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010

A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N

75.5 Lake Ontario 2009 2010 2011

247 NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory’s

Water level (meters, IGLD85)

Water level (feet, IGLD85)

75.0 246 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) produces

probabilistic lake level forecasts 1-10 months into the future
245
based on present conditions combined with climatic outlooks
74.5
244 generated by NOAA and Environment Canada. These
forecasts are updated regularly to reflect changing conditions
243
74.0 and outlooks. The outlook as of February 2011 indicates that
Mean long−term water level (1900−2010)
242 water levels in Lakes Michigan-Huron and Erie will likely be
73.5 Mean annual water level
241 lower than those of 2010 for the next 6 months, while Superior
will likely experience levels slightly lower than or similar to
1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010 those of 2010 into the early summer.