Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
John Kuri
Contents
1. CONTACT SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ 4
2. OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................................. 5
3. STRATEGIES ........................................................................................................................................... 6
3.1 Engagement and training of enumerators .................................................................................. 6
3.1.1 Establishing /accessing networks for engaging enumerators ............................................ 6
3.1.2 Contracting and arranging allowances for enumerators .................................................... 6
3.1.3 Training of enumerators ...................................................................................................... 6
3.1.4 Recommendations for improvement in LJSS training manual ........................................... 7
3.1.5 Implementation Schedule .................................................................................................... 7
3.2 Quality control and security of enumerators .............................................................................. 7
3.2.1 Quality Control of live surveys ............................................................................................. 7
3.2.2 Security ................................................................................................................................. 8
3.2.3 Gender and age ratios .......................................................................................................... 8
3.2.4 Field report ........................................................................................................................... 8
3.3 Collation and verification of survey ............................................................................................. 8
3.3.1 Sorting of Survey ................................................................................................................. 8
3.3.2 Inventory .............................................................................................................................. 8
3.4 Data entry and stratification ........................................................................................................ 8
3.4.1 Data entry ............................................................................................................................. 8
3.4.2 Quality control of data entry ............................................................................................... 9
3.4.3 Provision of data files ........................................................................................................... 9
3.4.4 Report ................................................................................................................................... 9
4. ADDITIONAL COMPONENTS ................................................................................................................. 9
4.1 Data Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 9
4.1.1 Disaggregation and interpretation into EXCEL and SPSS of data ....................................... 9
4.1.2 Data analysis and chart development ................................................................................. 9
4.1.3 Comparative analysis ......................................................................................................... 10
4.2 Reporting of data analysis results ............................................................................................. 10
4.2.1 Report draft ........................................................................................................................ 10
4.2.2 Editing by LJSS .................................................................................................................... 10
4.2.3 Submission of finalized report ........................................................................................... 10
Assistant Researcher
Name: James Kuande
P. O. Box 3657
Boroko
NCD
1
See Appendix 1 – 6.5
The logical step will be to network provincial/urban authorities and seek their advice on where
to recruit. Networking will be done in conjunction with relevant authorities. Candidates will
undergo an initial screening process2 where they will have to satisfy certain criteria as part of
quality control. The chosen twenty will be notified, but at least three will be kept on stand – by.
Each and every enumerator will sign to signify their participation in the survey. Supervisors will
be appointed from the batch. These two will also conduct the enumeration. The supervisors
will assist the lead researcher during field work.
Basically, a training needs analysis (TNA) will be conducted to garner the general level of the
enumerators in the above mentioned items. This is to avoid repetition of points that the
2
See Appendix 1 – 6.5.11
3
To follow rate set by the Minimum Wages Board
From these evaluations, recommendations will be made if there is a need to modify the training
manual.
4
See sample in Appendix 2 – 6.5.12
3.3.2 Inventory
An inventory of household IDs to be completed and submitted in the form of a report.
3.4.4 Report
The report will describe the handling of raw data, from coding to decoding, stratification and
filing. Basically the processes described from points 3.3 to 3.4 will be discussed.
4. ADDITIONAL COMPONENTS
Data analysis and interpretation is a critical element of any data gathering activity. It is
important to keep in mind that the statistics in this survey represent some phenomena relating
to people. We try to keep that in mind when we do these analytical exercises. In the best
interests of data integrity, those responsible for gathering the data should analyze and interpret
them. Thus, OPTIMAX Ltd will complete the survey by engaging in the data analysis and
interpretation. In addition, our staff are competent researchers and skilled in that area.
The second part of the data analysis will involve inferential statistics, where different tests will
be carried out. This will determine
Other tests can be conducted upon investigation of the survey questionnaire. All these tests
will broaden the understanding of the phenomena under study. This investigation should bring
into focus the matter at hand.
5. APPENDICES
Appendix 1 – Professional Attachments
KURI John
Personal Details
Name: John
Surname: Kuri
Date of Birth: 3rd May 1975
Sex: Male
Height: 169 cm
Weight: 78 Kg
Marital Status: Married
Religion: Christianity (Catholic)
Province: Simbu Province
Experience Nationality: Papua New Guinea
2006- 2009 Port Moresby Grammar school
Head of Department (Mathematics)/ School Statistician
1997, North Simbu Rural Development Project (Ausaid) , Kundiawa, Simbu Province
Administration /Procurement Officer
Ensured companies on contract were paid.
Kept track of supplies for all funded projects.
Made sure all vehicles were roadworthy.
Certificate of Credit
Certificate of Distinction
Certificate of Credit
Certificate of Credit
Certificate of Distinction
Interests
Applied statistics in research, quality control and data mining in Information Technology.
Ambition
I hope to be recognized as a data analyst one day.
References
Referees
Mrs. M. Olley
Principal
Port Moresby Grammar School
Phone: 323 6577
5.2 References
A
Key Skills
Better interpersonal communication skills and have the ability to adapt to
new environment in short span of time.
In dept knowledge in Microsoft Excel and master tool pack data analysis
and other in built functions, Competency in Statistical modelling-
Forecasting/prediction and developing trend lines.
Competency in Sample surveys and sampling techniques, appropriate
calculation of the standard errors of the sample data that can infer about
the population.
Master Probability Distribution and Estimation and Testing Hypothesis
.Master the Developing information system-PNGINFO (statistical data base
software developed by United Nation for PNG development indicators
toward millennium development goals (MDG) and MTDS (by GoPNG)
Have the ability to do research and can quantify qualitative variables and
can do numerical analysis to explain the relationships.
In dept knowledge in statistical quality control in industrial products as
well as services orientated.
Tabulation, Developing Graphs/Charts-using Excel and Minitab.
Strength in design and analysis of Experiments-ANOVA (Analysis of
Variances).
Strength in analysing multivariate data.
Strength in trend analysis.
Strength in Market research.
Strength in analysing Time Series Data.
Strength in numerical analysis
Employment History
Duties Performed
Routinely collecting, collating and compiling Agricultural Statistics and updating
the data-Base.
Producing Annual Agriculture Statistical Hand Book
Dissemination of statistical information to a number of regulars or ad hoc
publications to the top management and other line agencies and on request to
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO).
Provided technical assistance to provincial agriculture in designing and
conducting Agriculture Surveys, data storage system, quality control of the
surveys, Sample Adequacy and data validity checks etc.
Assisting the Chief Economic advisor in writing up the Department’s Corporate
Plan, writing up the ministerial brief and ministerial statement to the parliament
on the agriculture sector performance.
Provided Technical and General Statistical Services to clients and relevant line
agencies when requested.
Developed the Strategic work plan for the Statistic Section.
Did Economic Projections/Forecasting (Estimates) for the Agriculture sector
performance in the economy
Produced graphs-charts; tabulations, developed the trend line of all the
Agricultural export commodities and basing on the time series data made
available, did projection to foresee the future trend and advised the superiors.
Produced several detailed statistical report to the DAL top management team
Evaluated and measured the progress of Agriculture sector performance through
statistical analysis against the existing agriculture policies.
Wrote letters to the commodity boards and other relevant line agencies and
collected agricultural statistics.
Compilation and collating of agricultural and economic statistics.
Analysing the trend of all Agricultural Export Commodities.
Education Background.
1999-2002: Bachelors Degree in Science UPNG- Specialty-
Applied Statistics and Mathematics
Minored Economics
1996-1998: Rockhampton Grammar (QLD): Higher
School Certificate
1992-1995: Kerowagi H/School (Simbu) High school
Certificate
1986-1991: Guruma Primary School: Primary School
Certificate
Personal Particulars
DOB - 11-12- 1979
Home province - Simbu
Marital Status - Married
District - Yongumugl
Religion - Christianity
Nationality - PNGean
Objective
Referees
Mr. Harry Godfrid Boto Gaupo
Team Leader (World Bank Agriculture Project) Chief Economic Advisor
Policy Division Policy Division
P O Box 2033 P O Box 2033
POM-NCD POM- NCD
Ph: 3202869/8/7 Ph: 3202869
Fax: 3202866 Fax: 3202866
1. What will the sample size be? The use of samples mean that inferential statistics will be used. That
means determining the measures of central tendency and dispersion
7. Reporting
If you answer YES then answer Questions 2 – 3. If you answered NO then answer Questions 4 – 7.
Q2. What type of food do you have during lunch/recess? (You can select more than one option.)
(a) Sandwich (b) Biscuits (c) Fruits (d) Pastries (e) Juice / Carbohydrates
(f) Water
Q3. How often are your lunch /recess meals prepared at home?
(a) Sandwich (b) Biscuits (c) Fruits (d) Pastries (e) Juice
(d) Water
Q6.What do you think about on the variety of food offered by the canteen with respect to nutritional value.
Q7. What do you think about the price of food at the canteen?
(a) It’s okay (b) Could be cheaper (c) Way too high
This is a research project survey questionnaire on Drug and Alcohol abuse in secondary schools. The
information you provide is confidential so please be as honest as possible in all your answers.
Q3. Use the key below to describe the economic status of the people who you live with.
(a) Low income earners (b) Middle income earners (c) High income earners (d) Very high income earners.
KEY
Low income: K 20,000.00 , K 21,000.00 middle income K 35,000.00 , K 36,000.00 high income
K 50,000.00 , very high income K 50,000.00
Q4. Select the choice which best describes the amount of money you spend on a daily basis covering,
transport and lunch.
Q2. The activities in Q1 are again listed here, this time with measures of how frequent you do these activities.
(a) Smoking tobacco (b) Smoking marijuana (c) Alcohol consumption
Not often Not often Not often
Moderate Moderate Moderate
Regular Regular Regular
Heavy Heavy Heavy
Q3. Please circle the option that best represents who or what influenced you to engage in these activities
(a) Smoking tobacco (b) Smoking marijuana (c) Alcohol consumption
(i.) Peer pressure (i) Peer pressure (i) Peer pressure
(ii.) Family issues (ii) Family issues (ii) Family issues
(iii.) Imitating celebrities (iii) Imitating celebrities (iii) Imitating celebrities
Q4. If you selected option (i) in any of the activities in Q3; which of the following statements describe you.
(a) Every body in your peer group does so, and you feel left out if do not do what they do therefore you
take part.
(b) People in your peer group who are actively involved in these activities encourage you to take part so
you do.
(c) People in your peer group who are actively involved discourage you but you take but you still take
part.
(d) Without taking part in these activities, you will not have a peer group.
Q5. If you selected option (ii) in any of the activities in Q3; select the statement that best describes you.
(a) Family members are actively involved in these activities, as such your part – taking in these activities
is easily accepted.
(b) Family members are not actively involved but are not taking any strict notice of my involvement
(c) Family members are not actively involved and discourage me, but I still continue.
Q6. If you selected option (iii) in any of the activities in Q3; which of the following statements bests describes
you.
(a) People you idolize engage in such activities as such you feel you can relate to them by engaging in
these activities.
(b) Impressing someone (girl friend/boy friend / peers / older siblings etc…) is the motivating factor
behind engaging in such activities.
(c) Engaging in such activities makes you feel mature.
(d) You need attention from someone but do know how to get them to notice you.
Q7. If you selected option (iv) in Q3; circle the letter that bests suites you;
You engage in these activities because you are
(a) Facing family problems (Broken homes, separation, etc…)
(b) Financial problems (School fees, accommodation, etc…)
(c) Been doing it for quite a while and have become addicted.
(d) These activities are the only form of enjoyment available to you.
Q8. This question refers to marijuana and alcohol. Have you ever been violent under the influence of these
two substances? (a) Yes (b) No
Q9. What do you know about the harmful effects of drug and alcohol abuse?
(a) Nothing (b) A little (c) Enough (d) A lot
Q10. Describe the government’s effort to control drug and alcohol abuse in secondary schools
(a) No effort (b) Need to put more effort (b) Fair amount of effort (d) Doing an excellent job
Q11. The government has been doing awareness campaigns against drug and alcohol abuse, how well do you
think, these campaigns are achieving their goals,
(a) Not achieving their goals at all (b) It’s hard to tell whether anything has been achieved (c) Gradual
changes seem to be happening (d) Awareness campaigns are achieving very well their aims and goals.
Q12. Briefly explain in your own words how you would conduct an awareness campaign against drug and
alcohol abuse.
The questionnaire will be treated with utmost confidentiality and will not be used in any way against you.
PLEASE answer HONESTLY…
Part 1: Details
Sex: M
F
Department: _____________
Number of contact hours: ___________
Administrative Position (i.e., HOD, Dean etc…): Yes
No
Teaching one subject: Yes
No
Teaching one grade: Yes
No
Part 2: Questions
Q1. You are not in a rush to prepare for the next assessment task.
Q2. You did not cover enough content before the next scheduled test.
Q3. You need more than 1 week before you can return marked scripts
Q5. You notify appropriate personnel of students who are constantly underperforming.
Q6. You record and use the measures of dispersion of student performance in each assessment task to
evaluate their performance.
READING COURSE
[Type text] Page 27
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL DATA
SUBMITTITED TO
THE DISCIPLNE OF MATHEMATICS
2003
BY:
Rainfall data is an important aspect of many activities in life. Knowledge about when to expect an increase or
decrease in rainfall is crucial to agriculture, bodies governing hydro electricity, water supplying towns and
cities etc…Papua New Guinea, being a developing country needs to monitor the patterns in rainfall so that its
activities are parallel to rainfall.
When a series of observations are indexed by time, we call this a time series. Usually there are three
components to a time series. The trend, Tt , seasonal component S t and irregular variation t . Some will
include a cyclic component to a time series as well. Fluctuations generated by a certain time of the year or
month are referred to as seasonal variation and are easily noticeable in a time series. The long-term
movement of the series is known as the trend. This indicates whether the overall direction of the series is to
increase, decrease or show none at all. Cyclic effects are recurring patterns that take place over many years.
A time series that has a cyclic component is said to be periodic. The irregular component exists, as there is
always the unexplained variation in a time series.
Xt Tt St t (1.01)
or a multiplicative model,
Xt Tt S t t (1.02)
We consider the multiplicative model for our data. The trend is mostly modeled by low order polynomials
(e.g. linear or quadratic) whilst trigonometric functions or seasonal indicators usually model the seasonal
component. We assume that the irregular components t , are uncorrelated.
A better understanding of the series may be gained by decomposing the series into individual components.
Say the series shows some seasonality, then the option here would be to deseasonalize the data to remove
the seasonal variation, thus leaving the data with the trend and irregular component. The trend is then the
difference between the deseasonalized series and the irregular component. There are many methods to test
whether a trend exists. We use a non-parametric test to identify if the series is random or not.
Seasonal variation occurs as a result of many variables. The elements of nature play a huge role in many
activities in life; like consumer demand and prices. And thus removing the seasonal variation helps to bring
out the trend of the series, if there is any.
We follow the ratio to moving average method; more precisely the Census Method II-X11 variant program.
The following steps were followed to deseasonalize the data.
Table 1
The specific Seasonal indexes are found by dividing the series by their appropriate 12-soe moving averages.
So for July 1974, 25/81.4 = 0.307. Then the normalized seasonal indexes are in column 5.
The deseasonalized entry is taken as the series divided by the normalizer.
where 2 and 3 are the 2nd and 3rd central moments. The normal distribution is symmetric and as such has
a value of 1 0 . Another measure of the characteristic of a distribution its density around the mean. This is
called kurtosis and is given as,
4
2 2
3
2
where 4 is the 4th central moment. The normal distribution has a value 3 3 . We need to know the
moments of the data set. Raw moments and central moments are essential in determining the characteristics
of the data. This also will identify the distribution of the set of observations. The first four moments are
sufficient to determine any distribution and as such we determine the first four moments of our rainfall
observations. Listed below is the relationship between raw moments and central moments.
N
xt
st ' t 1
1 raw moment = 1
N
N
xt2
2nd raw moment = '
2
t 1
N
N
xt3
3rd raw moment = '
3
t 1
N
N
xt4
4th raw moment = '
4
t 1
Using the above relationships the normality was tested. The initial results are listed in Table 1.
Table 2
Central moments
Raw moments
'
1 = 94.78
'
2 = 17902.006 2 8946.9 =
3
1 3/ 2
0.117 and
2
4
2 2
3 3.129
2
These results are approximately similar to the coefficients expected of a normal distribution. More
specifically, the rainfall distribution is very weakly skewed to the right and only slightly denser around the
mean than the normal distribution. Hence we can say that the rainfall data of Port Moresby from 1973 to
1999 follows a normal distribution.
The average rainfall from the series is about 94.34mm per month that will serve as our focal point. The
observations above and below the focal point are denoted 1,0 respectively. Let m be the number of
observations above the focal point and n is the number below the focal point. We assign U to be the number
of runs.
We dichotomize the series by assigning the focal point to be the mean rainfall. We can then note whether
each observation exceeds or is exceeded by this value.
The null hypothesis is that an ordered sequence of two types of symbols can be considered a random
arrangement or that the process generating the series is a random process.
The test statistic U is defined as the number of runs exhibited by either of the elements in the series.
For sample sizes larger than 12, U is standardized and a continuity correction factor is introduced (since U can
take only integer values)
Using the symmetry of the normal distribution, the large sample, asymptotic approximate P-values can be
conveniently found.
ZL = -0.0041
ZR = -0.0044
According to the stated alternative statement, we use right tail probability for z.
The z statistic to be considered is – ZL since U<1+2mn/N
-ZL=-(0.0041)=0.0041
P=2*0.4801
= 0.9602
The result suggests that the series is a random process, which implies that the series does not possess a
trend.
1.3 Periodogram Analysis
A pertinent question in the mind of an analyst is whether a series has a cyclic component associated with the
series. She may want to know whether or not a series is periodic and if it is, the length of time it will take to
recur. Periodogram analysis measures the correlation of a known wavelength with that exhibited by the
series. A strong correlation results in an increase in the intensity. The highest intensity indicates the
periodicity of the series.
2 j
where are Fourier Frequencies and represents the j th harmonic of the fundamental frequency
N
1/N. Some useful results can be derived from this consideration. Prominently, the estimates of the
coefficients of 0 , 1 j and 2 j can be computed using OLS. They can easily shown to be
N N
2 2
0 x, 1j xt sin( j t) , 2j xt cos( j t )
N t 1 N t 1
The sample spectrum shows the various intensities at the corresponding wavelengths when j to takes
different values between given limits,. The Periodogram is used to detect and estimate the amplitude of a
sine component of known frequency and to test for randomness of a series. The definition of a Periodogram
assumes that the frequencies are harmonics of the fundamental frequency. This has far reaching implications
since it means that the variance of the series can be decomposed into contributions tied to a set of distinct
frequencies. The values at each frequency is called a power spectrum and give us an alternative way of
looking at the series.
It is advisable that a series should be demeaned before testing for periodicity. The periodogram for the
demeaned rainfall series is shown in Figure 1. We have a peak at 0.602. This suggests that the periodicity for
the rainfall data is 2 12 years. However, it is unsure whether the peak is a real peak given that the
periodogram is an irregular function. A descriptive procedure is given in Janeck and Swift (1991) if the reader
wants to pursue the concept of testing the significance of the peak. We however will not elaborate further
into this. The periodogram is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1
350000
300000
250000
200000
Intensity
150000
100000
50000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Frequency
From the analysis, the rainfall data of Port Moresby recorded at latitude 55006 and at an elevation of 35 m
may be approximated to the normal distribution shows no trend to increase or decrease and has a periodicity
of about 2 12 years.
Abraham and Ledolter (1983) “Statistical Methods For Forecasting” John Wiley & Sons
Janeck and Swift (1991) ‘Time Series: Forecasting Formulation, Application’ Ellis Horwood Ltd.
For the purpose of the LJSS Urban Crime Survey , interested persons who want to be engaged as
enumerators will have to satisfy the following criteria in order to be eligible to be selected to
become an enumerator in this survey.
Enumerators must
1. Be Literate and numerate ( At least completed Grade 10)
2. Have no criminal record
3. Be residing in a community within the city of concern
4.
Items Comments
Morning Briefing
Daily Quota
Security
Transport
Attendance
Team allocation
Afternoon Briefing
The morning briefing will retract on the previous day’s activities and outline the day’s activities. The
afternoon briefing will be for enumerators to report their live survey.
INPUTS
Personnel
Supervisor 2.1, 2.3 0.06 2 18 2.16
Data Entry Operator 4.1, 4.2 0.07 3 10 2.1
Enumerators 2.1 0.045 18 18 14.58
Sub-total Personnel 18.84
Materials
Training Venue Hire 1.3,1.4 0.4 1 5 2
Training 1.3, 1.4 0.04 20 5 4
Office Administration 1.1 – 6.3 0.03 1 50 1.5
Sub – total Materials 7.5
Communication
Phone 1.1 – 6.3 0.04 1 50 2
Internet 2.2 0.03 1 16 0.48
Radios/Frequency 2.1 1 3 0
Sub – total Communication 2.48
Travel
Vehicle Hire 2.1 0.8 1 21 16.8
Air fare( return trip) 1.1 2 1 2
Boarding & Lodging 1.2 – 2.5 0.5 1 21 10.5
Sub – total Travel 29.3
Management Costs
Lead Researcher 1.1 – 6.3 0.45 1 50 22.5
Assistant Researcher 3.1 – 6.3 0.25 1 25 6.25
Sub – total Management Costs 28.75
Miscellaneous 3.31
TOTAL COST 90
10% GST 9
Grand Total 99