TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMIC IMPACT

Portugal

2010

CHAIRMAN: Geoffrey J W Kent Chairman & CEO Abercrombie & Kent

Tom Klein Group President Sabre Travel Network & Sabre Airline Executive Vice President Sabre Holdings Gerald Lawless Executive Chairman Jumeirah Group J W Marriott, Jr Chairman & CEO Marriott International, Inc Alan Parker CBE Chief Executive Whitbread plc Gilles Plisson CEO Accor Charles Petruccelli President Global Travel Services American Express Company Christopher Rodrigues CBE Chairman VisitBritain Jeffrey C Rutledge Chairman & CEO Travel Guard Worldwide, Inc Jyotsna Suri Chairperson & Managing Director Bharat Hotels Ltd Jonathan M Tisch Chairman & CEO Loews Hotels

Jim Compton Executive Vice President, Marketing Continental Airlines Tony Fernandes Group Chief Executive Officer AirAsia Frank Fiskers President & CEO Scandic Hotels Mark P Frissora Chairman and CEO The Hertz Corporation Naresh Goyal Chairman Jet Airways India Ltd Arthur de Haast Global Chief Executive Officer Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels James Hogan CEO Etihad Airways Raimund Hosch President & CEO Messe Berlin GmbH Miltos Kambourides Managing Partner Dolphin Capital Partners Gary L Kessler President & CEO Carey International Inc Dara Khosrowshahi President & CEO Expedia Inc Sir Nigel Knowles Joint CEO DLA Piper Ali Kolaghassi Vice Chairman & CEO Saraya Holdings RK Krishna Kumar Vice Chairman Taj Hotels, Resorts & Palaces Jabu Mabuza CEO Tsogo Sun Group Luis Maroto Deputy CEO Amadeus IT Group SA Yunxin Mei President Beijing Tourism Group Richard Mortimore Managing Director Reed Travel Exhibitions Geoff Muirhead CBE Group Chief Executive The Manchester Airports Group Hamza Mustafa CEO Istithmar Hospitality & Real Estate Business Christopher J Nassetta President & CEO Hilton Worldwide Jerry Noonan Consultant Spencer Stuart

Deepak Ohri Chief Executive Officer lebua Hotels & Resorts Co, Ltd Frits D van Paasschen President & CEO Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc Andy Payne Managing Director Wilderness Safaris Jean Gabriel Prs President & CEO Mvenpick Hotels & Resorts Dionsio Pestana Chairman Group Pestana Fernando Pinto CEO TAP Portugal Bob Puccini CEO The Puccini Group David Radcliffe Chief Executive Hogg Robinson Group Jay Rasulo Chairman Walt Disney Parks and Resorts Marty Salfen General Manager Global Travel & Transportation Industry IBM Per Setterberg CEO Global Refund Group Jasminder Singh Chairman & CEO Radisson Edwardian Hotels Jeff Smisek Chairman, President & CEO Continental Airlines Khalid A bin Sulayem Director General Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing Hiromi Tagawa President & CEO JTB Corp Yassin K Talhouni CEO Zara Investment Holding Co Ltd Jaume Tpies President Relais & Chteaux Robin Tauck President R Tauck & Partners LLC Matthew D Upchurch CEO Virtuoso Michel Vauclair Senior Vice President Global Asset Management Oxford Properties Group Philip Wolf President & CEO PhoCusWright, Inc

Valdimir Yakushev Managing Partner S-Group Capital Management Tim Zagat Co-Founder, Co-Chair & CEO Zagat Survey LLC

VICE CHAIRMEN: Edouard Ettedgui Group Chief Executive Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group Maurice Flanagan CBE Executive Vice Chairman Emirates Airline & Group Michael Frenzel Chairman of the Executive Board TUI AG Mark Harms Chairman & CEO Global Leisure Partners LLP Stephen P Holmes Chairman, President & CEO Wyndham Worldwide Manfredi Lefebvre DOvidio Chairman Silversea Cruises Brett Tollman President The Travel Corporation

HONORARY MEMBERS: Andr Jordan Chairman Andr Jordan Group Jonathan S Linen Adviser to the Chairman American Express Company Lord Marshall of Knightsbridge Chairman Pirelli UK plc Sir Frank Moore, AO Chairman FT Moore P/L Frank Olson Retired Chairman of the Board The Hertz Corporation Grard Plisson Co-Chairman, Supervisory Board Accor Carl Ruderman Chairman Universal Media Tommaso Zanzotto President TZ Associates Ltd

EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE: Marilyn Carlson Nelson Chairman Carlson Alex Christou Managing Partner Accenture Jeff Clarke President & CEO Travelport Andrew Cosslett CEO InterContinental Hotels Group PLC Qiang Duan Chairman Beijing Tourism Group Sebastin Escarrer Vice Chairman & CEO Sol Meli Manuel Fernando Esprito Santo Chairman Esprito Santo Tourism Edward P Gilligan Vice Chairman American Express Company Pansy Ho Managing Director Shun Tak Holdings Limited Hubert Joly President & CEO Carlson Richard R Kelley Chairman Outrigger Enterprises Group

GLOBAL MEMBERS: Talal Al Bahar Chairman & Managing Director IFA Hotels & Resorts Mohammed Al Habbai CEO Dubailand Ted J Balestreri Chairman & CEO Cannery Row Company Fabio Barbosa CEO Grupo Santander Brazil Simn P Barcel Chairman & CEO Barcel Hotels & Resorts Raymond Bickson Managing Director Taj Hotels, Resorts and Palaces Giorgio Boscolo CEO Boscolo Group Rattawadee Bualert President lebua Hotels & Resorts Co, Ltd Gabriele Burgio President & CEO NH Hoteles Chris J Cahill COO Fairmont Raffles Hotels International

CHAIRMAN EMERITUS: James D Robinson III General Partner RRE Ventures WTTC Chairman (1990-1994)

IMMEDIATE PAST CHAIRMAN: Vincent A Wolfington Chairman Global Alliance Advisors LLC WTTC Chairman (2004-2007)

FORMER CHAIRMEN: Sir Ian Prosser Retired Chairman InterContinental Hotels Group PLC WTTC Chairman (2001-2003) Harvey Golub Non-Executive Chairman AIG Inc WTTC Chairman (1996-2001) Robert H Burns Chairman Robert H Burns Holdings Limited WTTC Chairman (1994-1996)

PRESIDENT & CEO: Jean-Claude Baumgarten

9 February 2010

THE WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL (WTTC), WHICH IS THE BUSINESS LEADERS FORUM FOR TRAVEL & TOURISM, HAS SPENT 20 YEARS DEVELOPING ITS ECONOMIC IMPACT RESEARCH FOR THE BENEFIT OF TRAVEL & TOURISM DECISIONMAKERS WHETHER IN THE PRIVATE OR PUBLIC SECTOR. THIS COMPREHENSIVE RESEARCH USES THE FRAMEWORK OF TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTS.
Since full Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSAs) take considerable time and resources to develop, WTTC produces simulated TSAs on an annual basis, covering 181 countries, in order to provide reliable and comparable information to assess Travel & Tourisms current and likely future contribution to economic activity and employment. Timeliness is one of the main strengths of our research. In the critical post-crisis recovery phase currently underway, it can inform and help drive urgent policy-making and investment decisions.
Our 2010 research, again produced in co-operation with Oxford Economics, assesses the economic impact of Travel & Tourism for the 181 countries, as well as for the world overall. It measures spending on Travel & Tourism by households, businesses, governments, overnight and same-day visitors, in order to capture fully the economic contribution of both domestic and international tourism, thereby quantifying Travel & Tourisms contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. In line with the trend in other sectors in 2009, Travel & Tourism activity was hit hard by the credit and housing market collapses experienced in many countries, with households cutting back on leisure travel and corporations reducing business travel budgets.The impact on Travel & Tourism investment was also significant.Yet even though Travel & Tourism activity was so depressed, it still employed over 235 million people across the world last year, generating 9.4% of global GDP. Although there are signs that the global economy has moved into a recovery phase, we are expecting the pick-up in developed economies a key source of Travel & Tourism Demand in the short term to be gradual, with both corporations and households continuing to reconsider travel plans and to limit expenditure. Nevertheless, despite the current blip in growth trends, our research confirms that prospects for the longer term remain positive. Over the next ten years, Travel & Tourism will continue to grow in importance as one of the worlds highest-priority sectors and employers. Emerging economies will of course be the main engines of our forecast growth, both in terms of domestic and international Travel & Tourism. But an increasing focus on leisure in developed economies should stimulate travel demand, even in mature markets, boosted by industry innovation in creating new sustainable products and services. In anticipation of these better times ahead, we are delighted to present you with the 2010 Executive Summary of WTTCs Travel & Tourism: Economic Impact.

Jean-Claude Baumgarten President & CEO World Travel & Tourism Council

Geoffrey J W Kent Chairman, World Travel & Tourism Council and Chairman & CEO, Abercrombie & Kent

CONTENTS
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TRAVEL & TOURISM

Key Facts at a Glance Summary Economic Impact and Real Growth Summary Tables Concepts & Structure Travel & Tourism Satellite Account
Gross Domestic Product Employment Satellite Account Tables Ranking and Range General Macroeconomic Indicators

3 4 6 7

8 9 10 12 12

USE OF MATERIAL IS AUTHORISED, PROVIDED SOURCE IS ACKNOWLEDGED

1-2 Queen Victoria terrace, SoVereign court, London e1W 3Ha, uK TeL: +44 (0) 20 7481 8007. Fax: +44 (0) 20 7488 1008. EmaiL: enquiries@wttc.org. www.wttc.org

PORTUGAL
KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE 2010 TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMIC RESEARCH

2010
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

10-year trend
The contribution of Travel & Tourism to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to rise from 14.4% (EUR24.2bn or US$35.8bn) in 2010 to 16.9% (EUR43.7bn or US$57.0bn) by 2020.

14.4%

Growth

1.9% 18.8%

Real GDP growth for the Travel & Tourism Economy is expected to be 1.9% in 2010 and to average 4.0% per annum over the coming 10 years.

Employment
The contribution of the Travel & Tourism Economy to employment is expected to rise from 18.8% of total employment, 943,000 jobs or 1 in every 5.3 jobs in 2010, to 23.2% of total employment, 1,199,000 jobs, or 1 in every 4.3 jobs by 2020.

Visitor Exports

14.9%

Export earnings from international visitors are expected to generate 14.9% of total exports (EUR8.8bn or US$13.0bn) in 2010, growing (nominal terms) to EUR18.1bn or US$23.6bn (15.3% of total) in 2020.

Investment

13.8%

Travel & Tourism investment is estimated at EUR5.1bn, US$7.6bn or 13.8% of total investment in 2010. By 2020, this should reach EUR8.8bn, US$11.5bn or 14.3% of total investment.

World ranking (out of 181 countries)

28 ABSOLUTE
size

41 RELATIVE
contribution to national economy

131 GROWTH
forecast

Ranking in European Union (out of 27 countries)

11 ABSOLUTE
size PORTUGAL
Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product (2000 constant US$bn)
30 25 20

6 RELATIVE
contribution to national economy PORTUGAL

14 GROWTH
forecast

Travel & Tourism Employment ('000 jobs)

1,400 1,200 1,000 800

15
600

10 5 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020

400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020

Direct Industry

T&T Economy as a whole

Direct Industry

T&T Economy as a whole

2010 World Travel & Tourism Council 1-2 QUEEN VICTORIA TERRACE, SOVEREIGN COURT, LONDON E1W 3HA, UK TEL: +44 (0) 20 7481 8007 . FAX: +44 (0) 20 7488 1008 . enquiries@wttc.org . www.wttc.org

ECONOMIC IMPACT
IN 2010 PORTUGAL'S TRAVEL & TOURISM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE EUR24BN (US$36BN) OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (GDP). THE INDUSTRY'S DIRECT IMPACT INCLUDES:

Direct Industry GDP

EUR

Direct Industry Employment

bn

10
(US$14bn) equivalent to 5.8% of total GDP

377,000
jobs, representing 7.5%
of total employment

HOWEVER, SINCE TRAVEL & TOURISM TOUCHES ALL SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY, ITS REAL IMPACT IS EVEN GREATER. PORTUGAL'S TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY ACCOUNTS FOR:

Economy GDP
EUR

Economy Employment
bn

24
(US$36bn) equivalent to 14.4% of total GDP

943,000
jobs, representing 18.8%
of total employment

Exports, Services & Merchandise

EUR

Capital Investment
bn EUR

11
(US$16bn) equivalent to 19.8% of total exports

5
(US$8bn) equivalent to 13.8% of total investment

bn

Government Expenditure
EUR

2
(US$3bn) equivalent to a 6.1% share

bn

REAL GROWTH
IN 2010, TRAVEL & TOURISM IN PORTUGAL IS FORECAST TO SEE REAL DECLINE/GROWTH OF:
Direct Industry GDP Direct Industry Employment

1.4
Economy GDP

-0.7
to 377,000 jobs

to EUR10bn (US$14bn)

Economy Employment

1.9

-0.3
to 943,000 jobs

to EUR24bn (US$36bn)

OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS, PORTUGAL'S TRAVEL & TOURISM IS EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE ANNUALISED REAL GROWTH OF:

Direct Industry GDP

Direct Industry Employment

4.2
Economy GDP

2.7 2.4 5.4 1.5

to EUR18bn (US$23bn) in 2020

to 491,158 jobs in 2020

Economy Employment

4.0 3.9 3.5

to EUR44bn (US$57bn) in 2020

to 1,199,000 jobs in 2020

Demand - Travel & Tourism

Visitor Exports - Travel & Tourism

to EUR56bn (US$73bn) in 2020

to EUR18bn (US$24bn) in 2020

Capital Investment - Travel & Tourism

Government Expenditure - Travel & Tourism

to EUR9bn (US$12bn) in 2020

to EUR3bn (US$4bn) in 2020

SUMMARY TABLES
ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS
2010 PORTUGAL Personal Travel & Tourism Business Travel Government Expenditures Capital Investment Visitor Exports Other Exports T&T Demand Direct Industry GDP T&T Economy GDP Direct Industry Employment3 T&T Economy Employment3
1 2

2020 Growth1 0.6 -2.0 0.2 4.1 3.0 10.9 2.2 1.4 1.9 -0.7 -0.3 EURbn 17.4 4.1 3.1 8.8 18.1 4.1 55.6 17.9 43.7 491.2 1,198.8 % of total 9.8 1.6 6.1 14.3 15.3 3.4 14.8 6.9 16.9 9.5 23.2 Growth2 3.2 3.2 1.5 3.5 5.4 5.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 2.7 2.4

EURbn 10.4 2.5 2.1 5.1 8.8 2.0 30.9 9.7 24.2 376.7 942.6

% of total 9.1 1.5 6.1 13.8 14.9 3.5 13.3 5.8 14.4 7.5 18.8
3

2010 real growth adjusted for inflation (%); 2011-2020 annualised real growth adjusted for inflation (%); '000 jobs

2010 EUROPEAN UNION Personal Travel & Tourism Business Travel Government Expenditures Capital Investment Visitor Exports Other Exports T&T Demand Direct Industry GDP T&T Economy GDP Direct Industry Employment3 T&T Economy Employment3
1 2

2020 Growth1 0.1 -3.5 1.0 -4.8 -2.0 3.4 -0.7 -1.2 -1.3 -2.9 -3.8 US$bn 1,478.6 338.9 169.5 458.3 698.4 625.1 3,768.8 887.6 2,528.0 9,408.4 25,042.8 % of total 10.3 1.4 3.4 9.0 5.6 5.0 10.1 3.5 10.1 4.2 11.1 Growth2 2.8 3.1 1.5 3.5 4.1 5.3 3.4 2.7 2.9 1.2 1.2

US$bn 1,008.5 225.9 130.1 289.8 418.2 341.7 2,414.2 610.0 1,699.0 8,381.8 22,211.0

% of total 9.7 1.3 3.3 8.8 6.2 5.1 9.9 3.4 9.5 3.9 10.3
3

2010 real growth adjusted for inflation (%); 2011-2020 annualised real growth adjusted for inflation (%); '000 jobs

2010 WORLDWIDE Personal Travel & Tourism Business Travel Government Expenditures Capital Investment Visitor Exports Other Exports T&T Demand Direct Industry GDP T&T Economy GDP Direct Industry Employment3 T&T Economy Employment3
1 2

2020 Growth1 1.6 -1.8 2.6 -1.7 0.9 5.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 US$bn 5,793 1,589 744 2,757 2,160 1,908 14,950 3,650 11,151 104,740 303,019 % of total 8.8 1.4 4.0 9.4 5.2 4.5 9.5 3.2 9.6 3.2 9.2 Growth2 4.1 4.3 3.1 5.3 5.2 6.5 4.7 4.0 4.4 2.5 2.5

US$bn 3,111 819 436 1,241 1,086 850 7,543 1,986 5,751 81,913 235,758

% of total 8.4 1.3 3.8 9.2 6.1 4.8 9.4 3.2 9.2 2.8 8.1
3

2010 real growth adjusted for inflation (%); 2011-2020 annualised real growth adjusted for inflation (%); '000 jobs

In order to quantify the economic impact of Travel & Tourism, we use the framework of a Tourism Satellite Account (TSA). Our estimates are based on demand-side analysis of Travel & Tourism's impact on economic activity, since the sector does not produce or supply a homogeneous product or service like traditional industries (agriculture, electronics, steel, etc).

CONCEPTS & STRUCTURE

PORTUGAL

Portugal's Travel & Tourism Demand of EUR30.9bn in 2010

Travel & Tourism Demand in 2010

less imported goods and services

(including Travel & Tourism spending abroad) of EUR6.7bn...

Personal T&T - 33.57% Gov't Expenditures - 6.95% Visitor Exports - 28.38%

Business T&T - 7.96% Capital Investment - 16.55% Other Exports - 6.58%

...equals Travel & Tourism Economy

GDP of EUR24.2bn...

PORTUGAL Travel & Tourism Economy GDP in 2010

Direct industry GDP

T&T Economy GDP

PORTUGAL

...and supports 943,000 jobs across Portugal

Travel & Tourism Employment in 2010

Direct industry Employment

T&T Economy Employment

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Portugal's T&T Direct Industry is expected to contribute 5.8% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2010 (EUR9.7bn or US$14.4bn), rising in nominal terms to EUR17.9bn or US$23.4bn (6.9% of total) by 2020. The T&T Economy contribution (% of total) should rise from 14.4% (EUR24.2bn or US$35.8bn) to 16.9% (EUR43.7bn or US$57.0bn) in this same period.

TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT

PORTUGAL Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product (2000 constant US$bn)
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

PORTUGAL Travel & Tourism Economy GDP (real growth, %)

15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

COUNTRY

Direct Industry GDP

T&T Economy GDP

EUROPEAN UNION Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product (2000 constant US$bn)
1,200 1,000 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1990

PORTUGAL v REGION Travel & Tourism Economy GDP (real growth variance, %)

REGION

800 600 400 200 0

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Direct Industry GDP

T&T Economy GDP

WORLDWIDE Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product (2000 constant US$bn)
4,500 4,000 3,500 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1990

PORTUGAL v WORLDWIDE Travel & Tourism Economy GDP (real growth variance, %)

WORLD

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Direct Industry GDP WTTC League Table Extract Travel & Tourism Economy GDP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 30 35 37 38 41 42 74 75 76 79 Malta Cyprus Greece Spain Portugal Morocco France Turkey United Kingdom Italy

T&T Economy GDP 2010 % of total GDP 19.4 16.1 15.5 15.3 14.4 14.1 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.4 WTTC League Table Extract Travel & Tourism Economy GDP 46 79 98 103 131 149 156 170 171 176 Morocco Cyprus Malta Turkey Portugal Greece United Kingdom Italy France Spain 10-Yr Real Growth Annualised, % 5.8 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.2 2.4 2.3 1.8

EMPLOYMENT
Portugal's 377,000 T&T Direct Industry jobs account for 7.5% of total employment in 2010 and are forecast to total 491,000 jobs or 9.5% of the total by 2020.The contribution of the Travel & Tourism Economy to employment is expected to rise from 18.8% of total employment, 943,000 jobs or 1 in every 5.3 jobs in 2010, to 23.2% of total employment, 1,199,000 jobs, or 1 in every 4.3 jobs by 2020.

PORTUGAL Travel & Tourism Employment ('000 Jobs)

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20

PORTUGAL Travel & Tourism Economy Employment (real growth, %)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Direct Industry jobs

T&T Economy jobs

EUROPEAN UNION Travel & Tourism Employment ('000 Jobs)

25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25

PORTUGAL v REGION Travel & Tourism Economy Employment (real growth variance, %)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Direct Industry jobs

T&T Economy jobs

WORLDWIDE Travel & Tourism Employment ('000 Jobs)

300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25

PORTUGAL v WORLDWIDE Travel & Tourism Economy Employment (real growth variance, %)

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Direct Industry jobs WTTC League Table Extract Travel & Tourism Economy Employment 22 27 30 31 35 55 59 62 66 116 Malta Cyprus Greece Portugal Spain Morocco France Italy United Kingdom Turkey

T&T Economy jobs 2010 % of total emp 23.7 19.8 18.8 18.8 17.1 12.2 11.2 10.9 10.2 6.4 WTTC League Table Extract Travel & Tourism Economy Employment 28 53 72 82 84 129 139 150 154 165 Morocco Turkey Cyprus Portugal Malta Greece Spain Italy France United Kingdom 10-Yr Real Growth Annualised, % 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.6

TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT

9

WORLD

REGION

COUNTRY

SATELLITE ACCOUNT TABLES

PORTUGAL
Travel & Tourism - EURbn Personal Travel & Tourism Business Travel & Tourism Corporate Government Government Expenditures - Individual Visitor Exports Travel & Tourism Consumption Government Expenditures - Collective Capital Investment Other Exports Travel & Tourism Demand Travel & Tourism Direct Industry Employment ('000) Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Economy Employment ('000) Gross Domestic Product 973.2 21.9 937.1 22.2 966.9 24.2 1,029.3 25.9 945.4 23.4 942.6 24.2 1,198.8 43.7 370.7 8.5 376.7 9.1 389.0 9.8 397.3 10.1 379.2 9.5 376.7 9.7 491.2 17.9 2005 9.4 2.5 2.0 0.5 1.1 7.2 20.2 0.8 5.0 1.9 27.9 2006 9.5 2.6 2.1 0.5 1.2 8.3 21.5 0.8 4.2 2.0 28.5 2007 10.0 2.6 2.1 0.5 1.2 9.4 23.2 0.8 4.8 2.1 31.0 2008 10.4 2.7 2.2 0.5 1.2 9.6 23.9 0.9 6.1 2.2 33.0 2009E 10.1 2.5 2.0 0.5 1.2 8.4 22.2 0.9 4.8 1.8 29.7 2010F 10.4 2.5 2.0 0.5 1.3 8.8 22.9 0.9 5.1 2.0 30.9 2020F 17.4 4.1 3.3 0.8 1.8 18.1 41.5 1.3 8.8 4.1 55.6

Travel & Tourism Accounts as % of National Accounts Personal Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures Capital Investment Visitor & Other Exports Travel &Tourism Imports Travel & Tourism Direct Industry Employment Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Economy Employment Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Real Growth (per annum except 2020 = 10-year annualised) Personal Travel & Tourism Business Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures Capital Investment Visitor Exports Other Exports Travel & Tourism Consumption Travel & Tourism Demand Travel & Tourism Direct Industry Employment Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Economy Employment Gross Domestic Product

2005 9.6 6.2 14.4 21.3 10.8

2006 9.3 6.1 12.0 20.8 10.2

2007 9.4 6.2 12.8 21.0 10.3

2008 9.4 6.1 16.2 20.8 10.0

2009E 9.1 6.1 13.9 21.0 10.8

2010F 9.1 6.1 13.8 19.8 10.3

2020F 9.8 6.1 14.3 21.7 10.0

7.2 5.7

7.3 5.8

7.5 6.0

7.6 6.1

7.5 5.8

7.5 5.8

9.5 6.9

19.0 15

18.2 14.3

18.7 14.8

19.8 15.6

18.7 14.3

18.8 14.4

23.2 16.9

2005 -0.8 19.0 2.6 -1.4 -0.9 -15.7 1.3 -0.5

2006 -1.2 -0.8 -2.9 -17.4 11.7 -0.7 3.4 -0.8

2007 2.6 -0.5 2.1 10.6 10.1 1.4 4.9 5.6

2008 1.9 0.3 0.2 25.0 -0.7 2.5 0.6 4.5

2009E -3.7 -8.7 2.0 -22.1 -13.0 -17.6 -7.7 -10.8

2010F 0.6 -2.0 0.2 4.1 3.0 10.9 1.2 2.2

2020F 3.2 3.2 1.5 3.5 5.4 5.0 4.0 3.9

2.6 0.1

1.6 3.4

3.3 5.2

2.1 0.9

-4.6 -7.3

-0.7 1.4

2.7 4.2

-0.4 -1.6

-3.7 -1.3

3.2 5.5

6.5 5.2

-8.2 -10.6

-0.3 1.9

2.4 4.0

E - Estimate; F - Forecast

10

SATELLITE ACCOUNT TABLES

PORTUGAL
Travel & Tourism - US$ bn Personal Travel & Tourism Business Travel & Tourism Corporate Government Government Expenditures - Individual Visitor Exports Travel & Tourism Consumption Government Expenditures - Collective Capital Investment Other Exports Travel & Tourism Demand Travel & Tourism Direct Industry Employment ('000) Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Economy Employment ('000) Gross Domestic Product 973.2 27.3 937.1 27.9 966.9 33.1 1,029.3 38.1 945.4 32.6 942.6 35.8 1,198.8 57.0 370.7 10.6 376.7 11.4 389.0 13.5 397.3 14.9 379.2 13.2 376.7 14.4 491.2 23.4 2005 11.6 3.1 2.5 0.6 1.4 9.0 25.2 1.0 6.2 2.4 34.8 2006 11.9 3.2 2.6 0.6 1.5 10.4 27.0 0.9 5.3 2.5 35.8 2007 13.8 3.6 2.9 0.7 1.6 12.9 31.9 1.2 6.6 2.8 42.5 2008 15.4 3.9 3.2 0.7 1.8 14.0 35.1 1.3 9.0 3.2 48.6 2009E 14.1 3.4 2.8 0.6 1.7 11.7 31.0 1.2 6.7 2.5 41.4 2010F 15.3 3.6 3.0 0.7 1.9 13.0 33.8 1.3 7.6 3.0 45.7 2020F 22.7 5.4 4.4 1.0 2.3 23.6 54.0 1.7 11.5 5.3 72.5

Travel & Tourism 2000 Constant US$ bn Personal Travel & Tourism Business Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures - Individual Visitor Exports Travel & Tourism Consumption Government Expenditures - Collective Capital Investment Other Exports Travel & Tourism Demand Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Industry Travel & Tourism Economy

2005 7.4 2.0 0.9 5.7 16.0 0.6 3.9 1.5 22.1

2006 7.3 2.0 0.9 6.4 16.6 0.6 3.3 1.5 21.9

2007 7.5 2.0 0.9 7.0 17.4 0.6 3.6 1.6 23.2

2008 7.6 2.0 0.9 7.0 17.5 0.6 4.5 1.6 24.2

2009E 7.4 1.8 0.9 6.1 16.1 0.6 3.5 1.3 21.6

2010F 7.4 1.8 0.9 6.3 16.3 0.6 3.7 1.5 22.1

2020F 10.2 2.4 1.0 10.6 24.2 0.7 5.2 2.4 32.4

6.7 17

7.0 17.1

7.3 18.1

7.4 19.0

6.9 17.0

7.0 17.3

10.5 25.5

E - Estimate; F - Forecast

Methodological Note
Recent years have provided a clear demonstration of the complex environment in which Travel & Tourism operates, confirming the critical importance of timely information for policy- and decision-makers. And future developments will no doubt serve to reinforce this argument. This explains why the economic impact research developed by WTTC and its partner Oxford Economics, which was designed to adapt to the changing needs of the Travel & Tourism industry and government leaders in the light of the fast-changing operating environment, is therefore an essential tool whether for private- or public-sector decision-makers. This comprehensive and comparative measure of the economic impact of Travel & Tourism developed by WTTC, which is highlighted in the Executive Summary and in the accompanying 181 individual country reports, is based on simulated Tourism Satellite Accounting (TSA) methodology. The methodology is analogous to that used for the production of national income accounts, following the key concepts of Tourism Satellite Accounting contained in the latest (2008) United Nations' Recommended Methodological Framework (RMF). The RMFs Tourism Direct Gross Domestic Product (TDGDP) measure is broadly equivalent to the Travel & Tourism Direct Industry measures given by WTTC/Oxford Economics. Adding to this direct industry measure the value-added created indirectly in the industry's supply chain, plus investment and collective government and non-visitor export spending, one arrives at the broadest measure of the economic impact of Travel & Tourism Travel & Tourism Economy GDP.

11

RANKING AND RANGE

Year 2010 country rankings for Portugal within world countries' list
2010 Portugal
Personal Travel & Tourism Business Travel Government Expenditures Capital Investment Visitor Exports Other Exports Travel & Tourism Demand Direct Industry GDP T&T Economy GDP Direct Industry Employment T&T Economy Employment
1 2

2020 Growth 1
104 105 152 16 51 33 50 74 57 91 74

Absolute Size
28 33 22 24 25 45 29 24 28 32 35

Relative Size
50 --49 48 64 46 --39 41 32 31

Absolute Size
33 36 22 32 28 46 34 26 32 32 34

Relative Size
58 --51 51 49 44 --37 37 27 30

Growth 2
143 145 170 137 87 94 134 123 131 70 82

TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT

2010 real growth adjusted for inflation (%);

2011-2020 annualised real growth adjusted for inflation (%)

Total 181 countries or 13 regions (largest/highest/best is number 1; smallest/lowest/worst is number 181 or 13; 0 is aggregate region no ranking

GENERAL MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

The following charts illustrate how Travel & Tourism growth follows or varies from general macroeconomic growth for various indicators. The bottom three charts illustrate information related to international visitor arrivals.
PORTUGAL Gross Domestic Product (US$bn) PORTUGAL Employment ('000 of jobs) PORTUGAL Exports (US$bn)
25

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

400 350 300 250

1400 1200 1000 800

6000 5000 4000

160 140

20

120 100 80

15 3000

200 150 100 50 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 T&T Economy GDP Total GDP 600 400 200

10 2000 1000 5

60 40 20

0 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 T&T Employment Total Employment

0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 T&T Exports Total Exports

PORTUGAL
25

PORTUGAL
250 200 150 100 50 2 0 14 12 10

PORTUGAL
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 T&T Government Total Government Expenditure Expenditure 10 0

Personal Consumption (US$bn)

Capital Investment (US$bn)

Government Expenditure (US$bn)

70 60 50 40 30 20

20

15

8 6 4

10

0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 T&T Personal Consumption Total Personal Consumption

0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 T&T Capital Investment Total Capital Investment

PORTUGAL
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

PORTUGAL
45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

PORTUGAL International Visitor Average Spend (US$)

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Visitor Markets Index (1988=100)

International Visitor Arrivals ('000)

12

WTTC CONTACTS
Jean-Claude Baumgarten President & CEO pamela.priest@wttc.org

The World Travel & Tourism Council is the forum for business leaders in the Travel & Tourism industry.
With the Chairs and Chief Executives of the 100 foremost Travel & Tourism companies as its Members, WTTC has a unique mandate and overview on all matters related to Travel & Tourism. WTTC works to raise awareness of Travel & Tourism as one of the worlds largest industries, employing over 235 million people and generating 9.4% of global GDP in 2009. Together with its research partner, Oxford Economics, WTTC produces comprehensive reports on an annual basis with updates whenever required to quantify, compare and forecast the economic impact of Travel & Tourism on 181 economies around the world. It also publishes an Executive Summary highlighting global trends. To download one-page summaries, the full reports or spreadsheets, visit www.wttc.org

Ufi Ibrahim Chief Operations Officer ufi.ibrahim@wttc.org Eva Aimable Policy Analyst eva.aimable@wttc.org Sarieu Caramba-Coker Office Manager sarieu.caramba-coker@wttc.org Nancy Cockerell Adviser, Policy and Research nancy.cockerell@wttc.org

2010
Susann Kruegel Manager, e-Strategy and Tourism for Tomorrow Awards susann.kruegel@wttc.org Jason Norman Director, Finance & Company Secretary jason.norman@wttc.org Alison Osborne Manager, Council Membership alison.osborne@wttc.org Pamela Priest Executive Assistant pamela.priest@wttc.org Paulina Tomczyk Membership Assistant paulina.tomczyk@wttc.org Zheng Yan China Marketing Representative zheng.yan@wttc.org WTTC India Initiative executiveassistant@wttcii.org

Anja Eckervogt Communications Co-ordinator anja.eckervogt@wttc.org

Assisting WTTC to provide tools for analysis, benchmarking, forecasting and planning
Over the last 25 years Oxford Economics has built a diverse and loyal client base of over 300 organisations worldwide, including international organisations, governments, central banks, and both large and small businesses. Headquartered in Oxford, England, with offices in London, Belfast, Paris, the UAE, Singapore, Philadelphia and New York, Oxford Economics employs over 70 full-time, highly qualified economists and data specialists, while maintaining links with a network of economists in universities worldwide. For more information please take advantage of a free trial on our website, www.oxfordeconomics.com, or contact John Gaster, Oxford Economics, Abbey House, 121 St Aldates, Oxford, OX1 1HB, UK. Tel: +44 (0) 1865 268900; email: jrgaster@oxfordeconomics.com

2010 World Travel & Tourism Council

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