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Growth Potential for Philippine Aquaculture: 2005-2025
Growth Potential for
Philippine Aquaculture:
2005-2025
Philip S. Cruz Cruz Aquaculture Corporation Bacolod City, Philippines
Philip S. Cruz
Cruz Aquaculture Corporation
Bacolod City, Philippines
Philippine fisheries production, 1995-2004
Philippine fisheries production,
1995-2004
43.7% 2 1 .5 1 M unic ipal C om m erc ial 0 .5
43.7%
2
1 .5
1
M unic ipal
C om m erc ial
0 .5
A quac ulture
0
Ye a r
M illio n
M T
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Aquaculture species, 2004
Aquaculture species, 2004

M a rine Fish

Ca rp

0.1%

Othe rs

S hrim p 1% 2% 2% 8%
S hrim p
1%
2%
2%
8%

Tila pia

M ilkfish

16%

S e a w e e ds

71%

Food fish production, 2004 (excluding seaweeds)
Food fish production, 2004
(excluding seaweeds)

41% (1.08 Million MT)

19% (0.51 Million MT)

seaweeds) 41% (1.08 Million MT) 19% (0.51 Million MT) Aquaculture Municipal Commercial 40% (1.13 Million

AquacultureMunicipal Commercial

MunicipalAquaculture Commercial

CommercialAquaculture Municipal

40% (1.13 Million MT)

In 2004, capture fisheries provided 81% of the country’s domestic food fish supply, while the
In 2004, capture fisheries provided 81% of the
country’s domestic food fish supply, while the
balance of 19% came from aquaculture
Status of Philippine capture fisheries
Status of Philippine
capture fisheries
 In 2004, capture fisheries (municipal + commercial) landed a total of 2.2 million MT,
 In 2004, capture fisheries (municipal +
commercial) landed a total of 2.2 million MT,
which is 16% higher than the MSY of 1.9 million
MT established in several scientific studies.
 In is widely believed by the scientific community
that the growth rate achieved in the last 5 years
(3.35%) is not anymore sustainable.
 In the coming years, fish supply would have to
come increasingly from AQUACULTURE if the
country is to remain self-reliant in food fish
supply.
Philippine imports of skipjack tuna, mackerels, and sardines
Philippine imports of skipjack
tuna, mackerels, and sardines

Volum e (M T)

1 6 0 ,0 0 0 1 4 0 ,0 0 0 1 2 0
1 6 0 ,0 0 0
1 4 0 ,0 0 0
1 2 0 ,0 0 0
1 0 0 ,0 0 0
8
0 ,0 0 0
6
0 ,0 0 0
4
0 ,0 0 0
2
0 ,0 0 0
0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002

Ye a r

S k ip ja c k tu n a ,

S

k ip ja c k

tu n a ,

fro z e n

M a c k e re ls n e i,

M a c k e re ls

n e i,

fro z e n

S a rd in e s ,

S

a rd in e s ,

s

a rd in e lla s ,

b ris lin g

o

r s p ra ts ,

fro z e n

Aquaculture production trend, 1995-2004
Aquaculture production trend,
1995-2004
2000000 1500000 quaculture (total) A 1000000 quaculture (excluding A seaw eeds) 500000 0 95 96
2000000
1500000
quaculture (total)
A
1000000
quaculture (excluding
A
seaw eeds)
500000
0
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
Year
Metric Tons
Cultured food fish, 2004
Cultured food fish, 2004
Cultured food fish, 2004
Apparent per capita seafood consumption in selected countries (in kg, 95-97 average)
Apparent per capita seafood
consumption in selected
countries (in kg, 95-97 average)
Maldives 169.8 Taiwan 37.3 Palau 102.4 Thailand 32.4 Iceland 91.1 Singapore 32.4 Japan 69.0 Philippines
Maldives
169.8
Taiwan
37.3
Palau
102.4
Thailand
32.4
Iceland
91.1
Singapore
32.4
Japan
69.0
Philippines
31.0
Portugal
59.8
France
28.4
Hong Kong
56.6
UAE
27.4
Malaysia
55.7
Peru
25.4
S. Korea
51.2
China
24.1
Norway
50.1
Canada
22.2
Spain
40.5
USA
20.9
Food consumption trends, Philippines
Food consumption trends,
Philippines

Percent of

total food

intake

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

1993 2003
1993
2003

Year

Fish and productsMeat and products Poultry

Meat and productsFish and products Poultry

PoultryFish and products Meat and products

Aquaculture is now the fastest growing sector

of animal meat production worldwide
of animal meat production worldwide
 Average annual percentage growth rate from 1970 to 2000:  Aquaculture = 8.5% 
 Average annual percentage growth rate from
1970 to 2000:
Aquaculture
=
8.5%
 Capture fisheries
=
1.4%
Terrestrial farmed animals
=
2.8%
Chicken
=
5.1%
 Hog
=
3.1%
 Beef and veal
=
1.3%
 Mutton and lamb
=
1.1%
 From 1992 to 2002, apparent per capita
consumption of seafoods worldwide increased
by 21%, from
13.1 kg to 16.2 kg.
 From 1992 to 2002, apparent per capita consumption of seafoods worldwide increased by 21%, from

Top 12 countries in aquaculture, by volume, without China and India

(excluding seaweeds)
(excluding seaweeds)
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 220,848 246,429 270,764
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
220,848
246,429
270,764
301,409
334,090
376,727
414,597
447,897
499,824
517,507
550,368
600,414
107,770
112,920
118,000
128,000
125,749
140,047
152,617
163,217
160,076
165,104
167,899
183,061
608,442
633,523
629,454
660,943
692,762
739,121
806,754
784,580
804,293
803,412
818,330
832,992
101,630
107,000
117,025
123,811
144,723
166,100
175,925
183,505
192,592
210,993
226,863
237,743
111,932
135,840
134,063
151,656
218,191
260,191
291,719
25,453
34,617
49,392
55,379
88,268
115,191
150,583
2,256
735
1,811
2,573
4,609
4,758
9,240
15,360
32,447
47,579
68,474
86,442
326,453
323,573
372,191
383,259
357,614
369,027
315,448
336,257
312,688
302,055
340,131
343,059
360,624
379,940
24,000
25,000
27,000
41,846
45,500
46,400
52,200
60,500
61,916
61,617
63,895
54,100
Thailand
295,661
393,042
428,212
477,455
457,057
404,493
376,683
234,924
240,743
256,811
299,897
294,339
240,411
333,370
600,000
Chile
2,439,982
3,150,594
3,962,273
4,865,503
5,630,454
6,045,327
6,482,402
572,000
633,250
686,260
788,310
893,330
1,004,500
1,017,136
Philippines
400,000
Egypt
South
Korea
200,000
Taiwan
0
Year
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02

1,000,000

1,200,000

86,643

99,978

353,333

370,974

Indonesia

457,314

86,643 99,978 353,333 370,974 Indonesia 457,314

15,329

22,712

160,705

131,102

Viet Nam

164,499

261,725

268,483

363,504

Japan

413,531

417,418

800,000

298,514

340,167

408,618

386,876

Bangladesh

392,072

800,000 298,514 340,167 408,618 386,876 Bangladesh 392,072

287,274

298,102

342,439

375,507

392,175

206,719

230,653

282,553

249,956

Norway

277,211

1,702,860

1,982,859

6,881,398

USA

8,256,487

########

452,939

504,733

1,225,261

1,395,444

1,416,702

The global picture:

projected growth in aquaculture, 2004-2017 (excluding seaweeds)
projected growth in aquaculture,
2004-2017 (excluding seaweeds)

Ye a r

CaptureYe a r A quaculture

A quacultureYe a r Capture

80%  As early as 70% 2017, 60% aquaculture’s 50% contribution to world fish 40%
80%
As early as
70%
2017,
60%
aquaculture’s
50%
contribution
to world fish
40%
supply may
30%
20%
already
exceed that
10%
of capture
0%
fisheries.
98
99
00 01
02 03
04
05
06
07 08
09
10
11
12
13 14
15
16 17
P e rce nt sha re
Philippine Aquaculture: Production and Growth Potential of for Domestic and Export Markets
Philippine Aquaculture:
Production and Growth
Potential of for Domestic
and Export Markets
Water resources available and
Water resources available and

potential utilization for aquaculture

Water Resource

Water Resource

Total Area

Total Area

(Ha)

(Ha)

Area

% Area

Usable for

Suitable for

Aquaculture

Aquaculture

% Utililizable Percent of Utilization Usable

Area

Potential Potential Available Available Area (Ha) Area (Ha)

Potential

Potential

Available

Available

Area (Ha)

Area (Ha)

Potential Potential Available Available Area (Ha) Area (Ha)

BW ponds - low density

BW ponds - low density

189,323

189,323

100%

100%

100%

100%

189,323

189,323

189,323 189,323

BW ponds - high density

BW ponds - high density

50,000

50,000

100%

100%

100%

100%

50,000

50,000

50,000 50,000

FW ponds

FW ponds

14,531

14,531

100%

100%

100%

100%

14,531

14,531

14,531 14,531

Laguna Lake

Laguna Lake

90,000

90,000

50%

50%

10%

10%

4,500

4,500

4,500 4,500

Other lakes

Other lakes

110,000

110,000

25%

25%

10%

10%

2,750

2,750

2,750 2,750

Reservoirs

Reservoirs

19,000

19,000

25%

25%

10%

10%

475

475

475 475

Rivers

Rivers

31,000

31,000

10%

10%

10%

10%

310

310

310 310

FW swamplands

FW swamplands

106,328

106,328

25%

25%

10%

10%

2,658

2,658

2,658 2,658

BW swamplands

BW swamplands

139,735

139,735

25%

25%

10%

10%

3,493

3,493

3,493 3,493

Coastal waters

Coastal waters

1,746,000

1,746,000

10%

10%

10%

10%

17,460

17,460

17,460 17,460

Total, excluding coastal

Total, excluding coastal

749,917

749,917

   

268,041

268,041

268,041 268,041

All water resources

All water resources

All water resources All water resources
All water resources All water resources

2,495,917

2,495,917

2,495,917 2,495,917
All water resources All water resources 2,495,917 2,495,917 285,501 285,501
All water resources All water resources 2,495,917 2,495,917 285,501 285,501

285,501

285,501

285,501 285,501
Potential yield of water resources from aquaculture
Potential yield of water resources
from aquaculture
 

Target

Current

Target

Potential

Share of

Water Resource

Yield/Ha/

Yield/Yr

Yield/Yr

Increase

Potential

Yr (MT)

(MT)

(MT)

(MT)

Increase

BW ponds - low density

2

251,744

378,646

126,902

1.5%

BW ponds - high density

5

3,000

250,000

247,000

2.9%

FW ponds

8

71,970

116,248

44,278

0.5%

Laguna Lake

25

35,833

112,500

76,667

0.9%

Other lakes

150

49,832

412,500

362,668

4.3%

Reservoirs

150

3,000

71,250

68,250

0.8%

Rivers

150

15,000

46,500

31,500

0.4%

FW swamplands

150

10

398,730

398,720

4.7%

BW swamplands

150

10

524,006

523,996

6.2%

Coastal waters

375

12,120

6,547,500

6,535,380

77.7%

Total, excluding coastal

 

430,399

2,310,380

1,879,981

22.3%

All water resources

 

442,519

8,857,880

8,415,361

100.0%

430,399 2,310,380 1,879,981 22.3% All water resources   442,519 8,857,880 8,415,361 100.0%
430,399 2,310,380 1,879,981 22.3% All water resources   442,519 8,857,880 8,415,361 100.0%
430,399 2,310,380 1,879,981 22.3% All water resources   442,519 8,857,880 8,415,361 100.0%
430,399 2,310,380 1,879,981 22.3% All water resources   442,519 8,857,880 8,415,361 100.0%
430,399 2,310,380 1,879,981 22.3% All water resources   442,519 8,857,880 8,415,361 100.0%
430,399 2,310,380 1,879,981 22.3% All water resources   442,519 8,857,880 8,415,361 100.0%
430,399 2,310,380 1,879,981 22.3% All water resources   442,519 8,857,880 8,415,361 100.0%
Projections for industry growth: 2006-2025 • 2.36% population growth • Increasing per capita fish consumption
Projections for industry growth:
2006-2025
• 2.36% population growth
• Increasing per capita fish consumption from
32 kg in 2005 to 36 kg in 2025 (inc. of 0.2 kg/yr)
• 20% of production exported by 2025
• Declining growth in capture fisheries:
Period Municipal Commercial 2006-2010 0.92%* 2.80%* 2011-2015 0.69% 2.10% 2016-2020 0.52% 1.58% 2021-2025
Period
Municipal
Commercial
2006-2010
0.92%*
2.80%*
2011-2015
0.69%
2.10%
2016-2020
0.52%
1.58%
2021-2025
0.39%
1.18%
* based on 1995-2004 APR
Domestic demand for food fish
Domestic demand for food fish
Projections 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Philippine population 85,967,830 96,602,275 108,552,227 121,980,420
Projections
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Philippine population
85,967,830
96,602,275
108,552,227
121,980,420
137,069,715
Per capita consumption (kg)
32.0
33.0
34.0
35.0
36.0
Food fish requirement (mt)
2,750,971
3,187,875
3,690,776
4,269,315
4,934,510
Municipal fisheries (mt)
1,090,642
1,141,744
1,181,681
1,212,575
1,236,290
Commercial fisheries (mt)
1,159,995
1,331,747
1,477,578
1,597,661
1,694,279
Aquaculture (mt)
500,333
714,384
1,031,516
1,459,078
2,003,941
- Inc. from previous year (mt
38,686
45,693
67,815
91,251
115,992
- Inc. in 5 years (mt)
214,051
317,132
427,562
544,862
- APR (%)
8.4
6.8
7.0
6.7
6.1
 By 2025, there will be 137 million Filipinos requiring
4.9 million MT of seafoods
 Capture fisheries may be able to provide only 2.93
million MT, an increased of 0.64 million MT over 2005
 Production from aquaculture would have to rise to 2.0
million MT, an increase of 1.5 million MT over 2005
Projected aquaculture exports, at 20% of total production (in MT)
Projected aquaculture exports, at
20% of total production (in MT)
Share Species 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2005 Seaweeds 64,383 78,332 104,825 154,023 226,310 31.0%
Share
Species
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2005
Seaweeds
64,383
78,332
104,825
154,023
226,310
31.0%
Milkfish
3,000
8,727
24,481
49,142
83,626
11.4%
Tilapia
-
4,684
13,140
26,377
44,886
6.1%
Shrimp
16,000
35,010
88,021
141,759
208,290
28.4%
Mar. fish/mollusc
5,000
7,025
11,278
45,890
142,737
19.4%
Others
1,000
2,780
7,097
13,586
23,119
3.2%
Total exports
90,782
133,261
251,121
434,125
733,888
100%
Total food fish
25,000
53,227
144,017
276,754
502,658
68.5%
Projected annual average percent growth rate, by species (in MT)
Projected annual average
percent growth rate, by species
(in MT)
Species APR 02-04 06-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 Seaweeds 16.2% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 8.0% Milkfish 8.6%
Species
APR 02-04
06-10
11-15
16-20
21-25
Seaweeds
16.2%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
8.0%
Milkfish
8.6%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
Tilapia
9.3%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
Shrimp
-2.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
8.0%
Carp
2.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Marine fish/molluscs
46.9%
45.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
Others
3.7%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Growth projection assumes 20% excess in food fish production by 2025 will be for export
Growth projection assumes 20% excess in food fish production by
2025 will be for export

Projected aquaculture production for domestic consumption and export, by species (in MT)

Species 2005 2025 Growth 20 Yr. Species 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Growth Seaweeds 1,399,627
Species
2005
2025
Growth
20 Yr.
Species
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Growth
Seaweeds
1,399,627
4,919,784
352%
Seaweeds
1,399,627
1,702,861
2,278,812
3,348,322
4,919,784
352%
Milkfish
Milkfish
296,986
436,370
296,986
612,031
819,036
1,045,321
1,045,321
352%
352%
Tilapia
Tilapia
159,405
234,219
159,405
328,504
439,612
561,069
561,069
352%
352%
Shrimp
35,174
87,524
176,042
283,518
416,581
1,184%
Shrimp
35,174
416,581
1,184%
Carp
14,073
18,833
27,672
44,566
78,540
558%
Carp
14,073
78,540
558%
Mar. fish/molluscs
1,580
10,125
37,593
114,726
285,475
18,072%
Others
Marine fish/molluscs
43,567
55,604
1,580
70,966
90,573
285,475
115,596
18,072%
265%
Total aquaculture
1,950,412
2,545,535
3,531,620
5,142,372
7,422,365
381%
Others
43,567
115,596
265%
Total food fish
550,785
842,674
1,252,809
1,794,050
2,502,581
454%
Total aquaculture
1,950,412
7,422,365
381%
APR aquaculture
13.6%
5.5%
6.8%
7.8%
7.6%
6.9%
Total food fish
550,785
2,502,581
454%
APR food fish
7.5%
8.9%
8.3%
7.4%
6.9%
7.9%
Average annual percentage growth of top 10 countries in aquaculture, 2000-2002
Average annual percentage growth of top
10 countries in aquaculture, 2000-2002
Target growth (APR) for Philippine China 6.3% 2006- India 6.2% 2025 aquaculture Indonesia 7.7% Japan
Target growth
(APR) for Philippine
China
6.3%
2006-
India
6.2%
2025
aquaculture
Indonesia
7.7%
Japan
4.2%
Total aquaculture
6.9%
Bangladesh 9.4%
Food fish
7.9%
Thailand
-6.5%
Norway
6.2%
Chile
18.0%
Vietnam
0.8%
USA
4.4%
AVERAGE
6.1%
Projected food fish supply, 2005-2025
Projected food fish supply,
2005-2025
6,000,000 5,000,000 Projected demand at 36 kg per caput 4,000,000 Aquaculture + capture 3,000,000 Aquaculture
6,000,000
5,000,000
Projected demand at
36 kg per caput
4,000,000
Aquaculture +
capture
3,000,000
Aquaculture +
2,000,000
capture - exports
1,000,000
Capture fisheries
production
-
05
10
15
20
25
Year
Volume (MT)
Contribution of aquaculture to food fish supply, 2025
Contribution of aquaculture to
food fish supply, 2025

Aquaculture

41%

of aquaculture to food fish supply, 2025 Aquaculture 41% Commericial 34% Municipal 25% By 2025, contribution

Commericial

34%

Municipal

25%

By 2025, contribution of aquaculture to food fish supply is projected to rise to 41%
By 2025, contribution of aquaculture to food fish
supply is projected to rise to 41% from 19% in 2004
End
End