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COMMODITY
Market

Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Base Metals Settle Lower On Weak Us Economic Data

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segment

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Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

Economic Data
Date
Tue Jun 14

Fundamental Market Overview

Forecast Previous

Time
4:30am 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 1:00pm

Currency
USD USD USD USD USD USD

Economic Data
FOMC Member Fisher Speaks Core Retail Sales m/m PPI m/m Retail Sales m/m Core PPI m/m Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks

Market
watch

GOLD POSTS BIGGEST ONE-DAY GAIN IN 3 WEEKS

30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed, consistent with recently lower levels as investors switched their focus on the equity markets. Even as Gold benefits from a disappointing U.S. economic outlook, the metal has failed to breach its record high $1,575 set in early May. Technical selling, a firm dollar combined with sliding crude oil prices have kept Gold from rising further. On Friday, investor sentiment improved after Greece's embattled prime minister replaced his finance minister to force an unpopular austerity plan, and as the euro rose on hopes for a new Greek aid package after Germany and France pulled together on a rescue approach.

0.3% 0.1% -0.3% 0.2% 0.9%

0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 1.1%

Gold rose nearly 1 percent on Friday, notching its biggest one-day gain in three weeks, as a sharp dollar drop amid an outline agreement to aid debt-burden Greece boosted investor appetite across the board. A string of recent lackluster U.S. economic data, worries Greece's debt crisis may escalate and uncertainty related to U.S. debt ceiling talks also lifted the metal for a small weekly gain. Bullion is up nearly 5 percent in the past 30 days. Gold accelerated gains after mixed U.S. data point to a wobbly economic recovery. U.S. consumer sentiment worsened more than forecast in June on continued economic pessimism, but a key measure of future U.S. economic activity rose more than expected in May to a record high. U.S. August Gold futures settled up $9.20 at $1,539.10 an ounce, after trading between $1,523.20 and $1,543 an ounce. Trading volume was almost half of its

Wed Jun 15

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

Core CPI m/m CPI m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index TIC Long-Term Purchases Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m NAHB Housing Market Index Crude Oil Inventories

0.2% 0.2% 13.7 45.3B 77.2% 0.3% 16

0.2% 0.4% 11.9 24.0B 76.9% 0.0% 16 -4.8M

Market
watch

OIL DROPS, BIGGEST WEEKLY SLIDE SINCE MAY

biggest weekly loss since the week to May 6. Brent is up 19 percent this year, while U.S. futures are up less than 2 percent as the European market rose to a record premium.

Thu Jun 16

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

Building Permits Unemployment Claims Current Account Housing Starts Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Natural Gas Storage Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations CB Leading Index m/m

0.55M 421K -126B 0.54M 7.3

0.56M 427K -113B 0.52M 3.9 80B

Oil prices fell on Friday, with U.S. crude slumping to a four-month low under $93 as a dimmer economic outlook and the European debt crisis drove crude to its biggest weekly loss since early May. U.S. futures fell more than $3 a barrel as momentum sellers piled into the slide. U.S. crude's discount to Brent widened by more than $1 to $19.90 a barrel. Oil broke away from familiar correlations, diving in tandem with the dollar and despite gains for many commodities. U.S. crude futures for July settled at $93.01 a barrel, down $1.94, or 2.04 percent, it's lowest since the Feb. 18. It traded from $91.84 to $95.40 Friday. U.S. crude fell below the 200-day moving average for the first time since September, drawing additional selling. Brent crude for August settled at $113.21 a barrel, dropping 81 cents, or 0.71 percent, the lowest settlement since May 24, when front-month Brent closed at $112.53. Trading volume was about 20 percent below the 30day average. For the week, front-month Brent fell 4.7 percent, the

Market
watch

COPPER ENDS UP DESPITE DIM ECONOMIC PROSPECTS

Copper inventories fell by more than 5 percent to 470,825 tonnes from last week, when they hit their highest in more than a year. The Copper contango, which generally indicates supply exceeds demand in the near term, has narrowed from a nine-month high of $30 in early May to $8.50 a tonne. The medium-to-long term outlook lead market remains fundamentally positive.

Fri Jun 17

7:25pm 7:25pm 7:30pm

74.7

74.3 4.1%

0.3%

-0.3%

Copper closed almost flat on Friday, after mixed data pointing to a shaky economic recovery in the United States limited gains from a weaker dollar. Benchmark Copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at $9,095 a tonne, from $9,065 at the close on Thursday. It hit a session high of $9,189. U.S. consumer sentiment worsened this month, although a gauge of future economic activity rose in May. The reports are the latest to suggest that the world's largest economy continued to spin its wheels in the second quarter. A softer dollar against a basket of currencies lent support to base metals prices. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.

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Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

GOLD

SILVER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 1594 1562 1550 1531 1519 1499 1467

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold was sustaining at higher levels. In the coming week 1500 $ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold. If COMEX Gold sustains above 1555 $ an ounce then above 1560 $ an ounce it can touch the level of 1575$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1500$ then it can slightly correct and test the level of 1485$ an ounce.

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Silver is technically consolidating on charts. Last week COMEX Silver neither sustain on higher levels nor at lower levels. For the upcoming week 3430$ and 3230$ are the crucial supports and 3800$ and 4000$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 56300 and 59000 will act as major resistance and 51800 and 49000 will act as major supports.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4034 3854 3743 3675 3564 3495 3316

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1530 $ an ounce, then above 1555$ it can test the level of 1575$ an ounce and above 1585$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1500$ and 1460$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1575$ and 1625$ Major support in MCX Gold is 22400 and 22200 Major resistance in MCX Gold is 22800 and 23050

STRATEGY
Technically COMEX Silver is bullish on charts and still in an upward channel, For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3600$ an ounce, then above 3700$ an ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 3880$ an ounce. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

CRUDE

COPPER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 111.15 103.04 98.03 94.93 89.92 86.82 78.71

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil was not sustaining at higher level. For the coming week 89$ and 84.85$ will act as major supports and 98$ and 104.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4400 and 4630 and major supports will be 3980 and 3740.

MARKET OVERVIEW
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was sustaining at higher level for most part of week and closed above to its previous week closing. If next week COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 415 then below the level of 420 Copper can test the level of 430. In MCX Copper sustains above 410 then above 415 it can test the level of 425 if it does not break the level of 397 on the downside.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 444.02 426.97 418.58 409.92 401.53 392.87 375.82

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains above the level of 94.70 $ a barrel then above 97.75$ it can slightly come up and touch the level of 102 $ a barrel and in MCX if Crude sustains above 4270 then above 4350 it can touch the level of 4500.Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 425 and 437 will act as major resistance and 398 and 389 will act as major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 415 and 425 and supports would be found at 396 and 385.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

NATURAL GAS

USD / INR

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 5.472 4.978 4.978 4.484 4.158 3.990 3.496

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
Natural Gas is in a slightly downward phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was consolidating for most part of the week but on the last two days it came down. If next week Natural Gas sustains above the level of 4.400 $ then above the level of 4.425$ Natural Gas can test the level of 4.500 $ and below 4.300 $ Natural Gas can slightly go down and test the level of 4.150 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above 197 in the coming week then it can test the level of 202, if it does not break the level of 188 on the downside.

MARKET OVERVIEW
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lower levels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.8200 then above the level of 44.9600 USD/INR can test the level of 45.4000 and below 44.5400 USD/INR can slightly go down and test the level of 44.2500.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 45.5700 45.1700 44.9800 44.7700 44.5800 44.3700 43.9700

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 44.1500 and 43.9000 will act as major supports and 45.4500 and 46.0500 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 4.200$ and 4.000$ will act as major supports and 4.480$ and 4.730$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 201 and 207, supports would be found at 188 and 182.

Weekly Chart

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Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX

5 -AUG -11 5-JUL -11 30-JUN-11 19-JUL-11 27-JUN-11 30-JUN-11 30-JUN-11 30-JUN-11 30-JUN-11

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS LEAD NICKEL ALUMINIUM

RS. / 10GM. RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS/QUINTAL RS. / BBL. RS./ MM BTU RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS. / KG.

22545 54447 401.6 4482 213.8 114.25 101.05 1024.3 116.75

22560 54208 401 4487 214 114.15 101 1023.2 116.55

22628 54208 412.9 4512 216.2 115.9 101.8 1023.9 117.6

22222 51833 398.85 4172 194.3 108.9 97.65 969 113.05

22622 53948 406.45 4204 195.5 109.3 98.2 976.4 113.35

130855 403922 633986 137043 177084 87439 93829 297718 26910

77 -499 4.85 -278 -18.3 -4.95 -2.85 -47.9 -3.4

11934 14260 22857 10823 5414 3345 7096 16733 3347

2905998.63 6383276.80 2564305.62 579501.35 409190.31 490597.46 466385.67 737871.17 154224.45

* Turnover Till Friday

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Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

Week : June 20th to 25th June 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

International Market
Commodity
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS USD/INR

Weekly Pivots
Closing Price
1539.1 3574.8 410.2 99.29 4.325 44.79

% Change
0.65 -1.59 1.13 0.00 -9.08 0.16

Scripts
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

R3
23302.00 58079.67 434.17 4976.00 245.80 125.37 107.52 1099.57 123.77

R2
22896.00 55704.67 420.12 4636.00 223.90 118.37 103.37 1044.67 119.22

R1
22758.00 54826.33 413.28 4420.00 209.70 113.83 100.78 1010.53 116.28

PP
22490.00 53329.67 406.07 4296.00 202.00 111.37 99.22 989.77 114.67

S1
22352.00 52451.33 399.23 4080.00 187.80 106.83 96.63 955.63 111.73

S2
22084.00 50954.67 392.02 3956.00 180.10 104.37 95.07 934.87 110.12

S3
21678.00 48579.67 377.97 3616.00 158.20 104.37 90.92 879.97 105.57

Weekly Gainers
Commodity COPPER GOLD Expiry Date 30 JUN-11 05 AUG - 11 Closing Price 406.45 22622 % Change 1.21 0.34

Weekly Losers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price 195.50 4204 976.40 % Change -8.56 -6.20 -4.68

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NATURAL GAS 27 JUN-11 CRUDE OIL NICKEL 19 JUL-11 30 JUN-11

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