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Bajaj Auto
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Reported PAT Source: Company, Angel Research 4QFY11 4,200 862 20.5 1,401 4QFY10 3,399 777 22.9 529 % chg (yoy) 23.5 10.9 (235)bp 165.0 Angel est. 4,223 822 19.5 630 % diff (0.6) 4.8 105bp 122.4
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Automobile 37,385 0.7 1,665/1,000 63,185 10 18,141 5,428 BAJA.BO BJAUT@IN
`1,291 `1,610
12 Months
Bajaj Auto (BAL) reported its 4QFY2011 results, with revenue in line and earnings above our estimates. Performance was driven by strong sales of premium motorcycles, improved operating leverage and higher other income on account of prepayment of sales tax deferral incentive. We remain positive on BAL though the DEPB issue remains an area of concern. We recommend Buy on the stock. In-line operating performance driven by favourable product mix: BAL reported a strong 23.5% yoy increase in net sales to `4,200cr (`3,399cr), which was in line with our expectations of `4,223cr. Revenue growth was driven by 17.2% yoy growth in volumes with high-margin motorcycles, Pulsar and Discover, contributing ~70% to total motorcycle sales. Favourable product mix along with price hikes helped the company to post ~5.05% yoy growth in average net realisation. EBITDA margin came in 105bp ahead of our estimate at 20.5%, posting a decline of 235bp yoy. However, better product mix and reduced staff and other expenditure limited the contraction in operating margin to a certain extent. As a result, net profit (adjusted for one-time extraordinary items) surged by 27.9% yoy to `676cr, better than our estimates of `630cr. There was an exceptional item related to sales tax deferral incentive/loan to the amount of `827cr, which boosted the bottom line by 165% to `1,401cr. For FY2011, the company posted strong top-line growth of 40%, mainly driven by strong volume growth. Adjusting for the exceptional items, the companys bottom line grew by nearly 40%. Outlook and valuation: At `1,291, the stock is trading at 13.3x FY2012E and 12x FY2013E earnings. We remain positive on BAL in the two-wheeler segment, owing to its diversified business model and strong revenue and earnings visibility. Currently, the stock is available at reasonable valuations due to the recent decline in its price. Hence, we recommend Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `1,610, valuing it at 15x FY2013E earnings.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 50.0 16.5 16.5 17.0
3m (0.4) (3.3)
1yr 10.6
3yr 11.0
21.0 327.1
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Adj. net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) Adj. EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010
11,921 35.3 1,784 132.0 20.2 58.8 21.9 12.8 74.4 58.8 2.9 14.4
FY2011E
16,639 39.6 2,565 43.8 20.0 88.7 14.6 10.1 77.3 69.9 2.0 10.1
FY2012E
19,535 17.4 2,799 9.1 18.5 96.7 13.3 7.3 63.2 62.5 1.6 9.1
FY2013E
22,122 13.2 3,101 10.8 18.0 107.2 12.0 5.4 51.5 54.4 1.4 7.9
Amit Bagaria
022-39357800 Ext: 6824
amit.bagaria@angelbroking.com
Yaresh Kothari
022-39357800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
736 125.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: EPS adjusted for 1:1 bonus issue
4,852 (99.4)
Net sales up 23.5%, driven by 17.2% volume and 5.05% realisation growth: BAL reported strong 23.5% yoy growth in net sales to `4,200cr (`3,399cr), driven by a 17.2% yoy increase in total volumes and a 5.05% yoy increase in average net realisation. For FY2011, domestic volume grew by 36% yoy, while the domestic two-wheeler auto industry grew by 23% yoy, resulting in a gain of 2.4% in domestic market share.
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Net sales excludes other operating income
EBITDA margin down 235bp yoy to 20.5%, marginally ahead of estimates: During 4QFY2011, EBITDA margin came in 105bp ahead of our estimate at 20.5%, down 235bp yoy. Margin contraction was primarily on account of a 330bp yoy increase in raw-material cost, which accounted for 68% of net sales during the quarter. Improved operating leverage and better product mix along with higher commercial vehicle volumes helped the company to restrict yoy and qoq margin contraction to a certain extent. As a result, overall operating profit for the quarter increased by 10.9% yoy to `862cr (`777cr). Management has guided to sustain EBITDA margin at 20% levels in FY2011 and FY2012.
19.5
22.0
22.0
22.9
20.0
20.7
20.3
20.5
13.0
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Net sales excludes other operating income
Net profit up 165% yoy on higher other income: BAL reported net profit growth of 165% yoy to `1,401cr (`529cr), which was higher than our expectation of `630cr, largely due to higher extraordinary income of `725cr on account of exceptional item related to sales tax deferral incentive/loan to the amount of `827cr. Adjusting for other income, net profit surged by 27.9% yoy to `676cr, better than our estimates of `630cr.
4QFY11
4QFY11
Investment arguments
Focus on Discover and Pulsar to improve market share: BAL continues to witness strong demand in the two-wheeler segment from its strong dual offering of Discover and Pulsar. BAL is positioning itself in line with its strategy of value and price products, wherein it proposes to tap higher-value bike segments, which have a high-growth potential and fetch better realisations. BAL has also launched new products in the high-margin 125cc+ segment. Three-wheeler registering healthy growth: BAL has a strong presence in the three-wheeler market, with an overall market share (including exports) of around 55.7% in December 2010. The company tops the passenger auto-rickshaw segment (62.9% market share), which accounts for ~88% of the three-wheeler market. The three-wheeler segment fetches higher margins than the companys two-wheeler business. Although the company has lost some market share in the three-wheeler domestic market, improving export volumes have more than compensated to post higher volume growth. We expect the companys three-wheeler volumes to grow by 1213% over FY201113E. High growth potential in export volumes: BAL registered a strong exports CAGR of 37% during FY200511, aided by a 43% CAGR in two-wheeler exports and a 22% CAGR in three-wheeler exports. Going ahead, we estimate BAL to register a 24.6% CAGR over FY201113E, driven by the strong demand outlook from the exports market. BAL has also hedged around 90% of its FY2012 exports. Hence, any sharp appreciation of the INR in FY2012 will not have a significant impact on the companys margins.
FY2009 2,451,396 1,658,230 481,549 2,139,779 21,316 2,161,095 127,379 26,607 136,315 290,301 (9.8) (20.2) 61.8 (10.0) 4.1 (9.8) (8.2) (37.2) (3.1) (9.8)
FY2010 2,194,108 1,276,427 631,383 1,907,810 11,772 1,919,582 125,273 10,197 139,056 274,526 (10.5) (23.0) 31.1 (10.8) (44.8) (11.2) (1.7) (61.7) 2.0 (5.4)
FY2011E 2,851,518 1,781,748 725,097 2,506,845 3,737 2,510,582 164,493 11,534 164,909 340,936 30.0 39.6 14.8 31.4 (68.3) 30.8 31.3 13.1 18.6 24.2
FY2012E 3,847,290 2,423,177 1,000,634 3,423,811 3,423,811 197,392 3,460 222,627 423,479 34.9 36.0 38.0 36.6 36.4 20.0 (70.0) 35.0 24.2
FY2013E 4,314,745 2,713,959 1,140,723 3,854,681 3,854,681 207,261 3,460 249,342 460,064 12.2 12.0 14.0 12.6 12.6 5.0 12.0 8.6
BAL de-merged
Feb-06
May-04
Sep-06
Jul-05
May-11
Jun-06
Jan-06
Dec-04
Jun-08
Apr-04
Aug-09
Mar-10
Nov-06
Mar-08
Apr-07
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-07
May-07
Nov-10
Feb-05
Oct-07
Feb-09
Sep-04
Sep-08
Oct-03
Oct-10
Jul-05
Jul-09
May-07
May-11
Automobile Ashok Leyland Bajaj Auto Hero Honda Maruti Mahindra and Mahindra Tata Motors TVS Motor
1,291 1,610 1,794 1,753 1,214 1,506 677 52 881 62 1,154 1,456
Mar-08 May-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11
Jun-06
Jan-06
Apr-04
Nov-06
Mar-08
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Feb-05
Oct-07
Sep-04
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-05
Jul-09
May-11
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Preference Capital Reserves & Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 3,350 1,808 1,542 22 1,809 2,325 137 1,491 697 2,438 (112) 183 3,444 3,379 1,900 1,480 42 4,022 3,001 101 2,180 719 4,275 (1,274) 4,269 3,725 2,026 1,699 37 4,651 4,260 263 2,883 1,114 5,751 (1,491) 4,896 4,254 2,162 2,091 43 5,905 4,443 (263) 3,305 1,401 6,266 (1,823) 6,215 4,756 2,310 2,446 48 7,494 4,768 (459) 3,638 1,588 6,867 (2,098) 7,889 145 1,725 1,870 1,570 4 3,444 145 2,784 2,928 1,339 2 4,269 289 3,416 3,705 1,189 2 4,896 289 4,861 5,150 1,064 2 6,215 289 6,609 6,898 989 2 7,889 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E FY2013E
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per share data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont analysis EBIT margin (%) Tax retention ratio (x) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE (%) Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT/ Interest) (0.2) (0.4) 40.6 (1.0) (1.2) 379.5 (1.0) (1.1) 1,346.6 (0.9) (1.3) 815.8 (0.9) (1.5) 970.2 2.8 15 14 49 (11) 3.5 12 10 51 (25) 4.7 12 11 49 (34) 4.9 13 12 48 (31) 4.9 14 12 48 (26) 26.7 25.8 44.5 58.8 54.5 74.4 69.9 69.1 77.3 62.5 53.6 63.2 54.4 46.0 51.5 10.1 0.6 2.8 18.5 0.0 0.0 18.5 19.7 0.7 3.2 43.8 0.0 0.0 43.8 20.0 0.7 3.8 54.4 0.0 0.0 54.4 18.4 0.7 3.5 46.5 0.0 0.0 46.5 17.9 0.7 3.0 38.5 0.0 0.0 38.5 26.6 26.6 27.1 11.0 64.6 58.8 58.8 63.6 40.0 101.2 88.7 88.7 93.0 40.0 128.1 96.7 96.7 101.4 40.0 178.0 107.2 107.2 112.3 40.0 238.4 48.6 47.6 20.0 0.9 4.1 37.7 10.7 21.9 20.3 12.8 3.1 2.9 14.4 8.1 14.6 13.9 10.1 3.1 2.0 10.1 6.9 13.3 12.7 7.3 3.1 1.6 9.1 5.3 12.0 11.5 5.4 3.1 1.4 7.9 4.0 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E FY2013E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bajaj Auto No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
12