Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Tunisia
2007-2011
Republic of Tunisia
2007-2011
Toward a higher stage of growth
Jun 2007
Tunisia has followed a comprehensive and prospective development approach, anticipating the rapid transformations in a world context triggered by an expanding globalization and accompanied by a growing importance of knowledge, the control of technology, the development of immaterial economy and the emergence of new processes and modes of production and marketing. This approach has placed man in the forefront of development priorities inasmuch as he is considered to be, at the same time, the most important objective and means in the process of creation and distribution of wealth. This particular interest is reflected in the essential place given to the social dimension in the development approach, a dimension that constitutes indeed the keystone in the establishment of a modern and balanced society capable of guaranteeing equal opportunity for all classes and eliminating all forms of exclusion and marginalization. In effect, thanks to this exhaustive view and to the concordance of the different dimensions of development, Tunisia has managed, over the past decade and particularly during the Xth Plan period, to make convincing socioeconomic gains and to score numerous successes in the various fields and sectors as acknowledged by international authorities and a number of rating agencies which placed Tunisia in the advanced ranks within their annual reports on the economic performance in all countries. The chief gains include the achievement of an annual growth rate of 4.5% on average, an increase in the per capita income to the level of 4054 TD, a reduction in the poverty rate to less than 4%, the creation of 372000 new jobs, and a marked improvement of human and social development indicators as well as of living conditions. While security and social peace fundamental features of the domestic climate were essential in achieving the above results, the world economic situation which proved to be unfavourable owing to the deterioration of worldwide security and its harmful effects on countries, particularly those with emergent economies has required substantial efforts and an intensification of reforms towards integration and openness, which has contributed, in spite of difficulties, to the achievement of high levels of integration and the conquest of new market positions.
Tunisia
Introduction
2007-2011
The XI th Plan period assumes major importance in view of the need to preserve and consolidate the accomplished gains and the obligation to meet national aspirations. These include essentially the attainment of a higher level of growth which would make it possible to increase income and to cope with the additional demand for jobs particularly that of Higher education graduates. They also include the achievement of further gains in the fields of human development and social prosperity. To that effect, the development strategy for the next Plan (2007-2011) has been based on the permanent features of the development action to consolidate economic competitiveness, to strengthen social achievements and to develop such human and material capacities as would facilitate the integration into, and access to, the opportunities it provides. In this regard, the adopted development strategy assumes the implementation of a substantial volume of investments amounting to 49 billion dollars of which two-thirds are assignable to the private sector. It should be noted that private investments will be geared principally towards promising activities with a high knowledge content and the implementation of a number of major projects such as the Enfidha Airport and deep-water port an the Sekhira refining unit as well as some infrastructure projects in the fields of telecommunications, computer science and new technologies.
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3. Development policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Boosting employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Investment promotion and acceleration of new business creation Export promotion and strengthening of integration into the world economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 Preservation of balances and development of financial policies
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CONTENTS
2007-2011
2002-2006
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2007-2011
Tunisia
Export promotion benefited from numerous reforms aimed at facilitating trade with the outside world, providing appropriate support for exporters, encouraging the operations of market prospecting and access to new markets, the significant advancement of the process of integration into the regional and international environment thanks to the continued implementation of the partnership agreement with the European Union, the active participation in the Euro-Mediterranean, Arab and African partnerships and in developing cooperation with friendly countries. Moreover, specific actions were undertaken in favour of the sectors affected by the decline of international demand and the exacerbation of competition such as the textile sector the exports of which faced increased competition as a result of the dismantling of the Multifiber agreements, and tourism which suffered the effects of the unfavourable developments at the international level. Within the framework of the priority given to employment, efforts were intensified to accelerate the pace of job creation and to ensure greater adequacy to the new structure of employment demand. To that effect, the active employment policy was consolidated by the diversification of mechanisms to improve the job-seekers' employability, incentives for the recruitment of Higher education graduates and improvement of managerial staff rates within companies. Establishing the foundations of the knowledge economy was one of the chief characteristics of the development work during the 2002-2006 period. Thus, efforts were focused on optimizing the use of intelligence and learning capacities through the adoption of major reforms at the level of human resources by modernizing the systems of Higher education, education and training, as well as the levels of functionality of the infrastructure of communication, computer science, consolidation of research laboratories and gradual generalization of remote service delivery. Similarly, sectoral policies witnessed a qualitative evolution thanks to the efforts made to streamline and improve the performance of productive sectors. The policies concerned quality improvement, renewal of production systems, cost-control, reinforcement of professional structures and adoption of new approaches aimed, in particular, at ensuring business groupings and integration into international production and marketing networks. In addition and in view of the structural changes of certain sectors, the action taken involved the implementation of specific measures to adopt sectoral policies and meet the requirements of the new economy and the restructuring of the economic fabric to give absolute priority to innovative activities and those making greater use of intelligence and modern technologies. The financial policies adopted were marked by qualitative reforms which met the requirements of improving the business climate and making a greater contribution to the performance of the national economy.
2007-2011
Tunisia
Those reforms concerned the development of the tax system, the modernization of monetary policy through the implementation of open-market instruments, the optimization of liquidity control operations and the adoption of a flexible exchange policy along with the reinforcement of financial liberalization and in such a way as to facilitate the transactions of national companies abroad and to drain more foreign investment. The reforms also aimed to improve the performance of the financial sector and the quality of the services provided. In effect, they concerned the reinforcement of technical and financial capabilities, the restructuring of the banking sector,the consolidation of the financial market by modernizing the institutional and legal framework, reinforcing the insurance sector and improving its services. At the social level, the established specificity of the national development approach based on the comprehensiveness and interdependence of economic and social dimensions and on the consolidation of institutional capacities, was reflected through various programs, mechanisms and measures aimed at improving the living conditions of the different social categories and all regions while paying special attention to individuals with specific needs. The reforms carried out in the field of education, vocational training and Higher education covered mainly the modernization of teaching methods, the improvement of quality indicators and the effectiveness and consolidation of the new information and communication technologies as well as greater openness of those sectors to their environment. At the same time, the legal framework governing vocational training and Higher education was revised to take into account the new requirements of the development process.
2. Quantitative results
The previous five-year period was also characterized by an improvement of health and social 12 security coverage and related services, the consolidation of public utilities and a diversification of the programs intended for vulnerable classes. The purpose was to reduce poverty, exclusion and marginalization and to further improve the quality of life in the regions. The 2002-2006 Development Plan made it possible to achieve outstanding economic results and to consolidate social gains in spite of the pressures linked to the international and regional situation, particularly the excessive prices of commodities - especially oil and the political instability in the Arab region. Those results contributed to strengthening the position of Tunisia vis--vis its partners and international institutions.
2007-2011
In the economic field, the results obtained over the previous period include mainly the following: A GDP increase at the average rate of 4.5%,which is a considerable pace given the difficulties encountered by certain sectors in relation to the unfavourable economic situation at both international and regional levels and to the negative impact of the climatic conditions on the output of the agricultural sector. The GDP growth was due, in particular, to the sustained development of the service sector which showed an average growth rate of 7.2% as well as to the performance of a number of promising industrial activities such as the mechanical and electrical industries which progressed at an average rate of 8.9%. In addition, the contribution of the overall productivity of factors improved so much as to be at the origin of approximately 41% of the GDP growth thanks to the reforms carried out to consolidate the organizational, productive and commercial capacities of the enterprise. The competitiveness of the economy and the development of its structures through an increased share of the sectors with high technological content, estimated at 20.4% in 2006 versus 16.8% in 2001, and a consolidated share of marketable services, which accounted for 45% of the GDP in 2006 versus 40.5% in 2001. The overall investment amount increased at an average rate of 5.1% to reach 41.2 billion dinars. This level of investment reflects, especially in the social and basic infrastructure fields, on the one hand the fruitful cooperation with Tunisia's partners and financial donors and, on the other hand, the improved share of private investment in accordance with the established policy guidelines regarding the sharing of roles between the public and private sectors, which opens new prospects for the latter to contribute more to the fulfilment of development objectives. The raising of a substantial amount of foreign direct investment which exceeded all expectations, that is 5.5 billion dinars not taking into account the opening of Tunisie-Tlcom capital. The previous period witnessed the establishment of 884 new companies with foreign participation in addition to new investments made by foreign companies already established and having elected to expand their activities in Tunisia. As for the amount mobilized by the capital transfer of public shareholding in the capital of Tunisie-Tlcom, it amonuts approximately to 3 billion dinars. The firm establishment of the private sector's role in the development process as evidenced by the consolidation of its contribution which amounted to 72% of the GDP, 57.1% of investment, 85% of exports and 91% of job creation. The appreciable development of exports of goods and services which increased at the average rate of 8.5%. This performance was due to the emergence of new export sectors such as the mechanical and electrical industries, the automotive components and a number of promising
Tunisia
service activities. The efforts carried out made it possible to maintain the positive pace of exports of certain strategic sectors, particularly textiles and tourism, in spite of the difficulties of the international economic situation. The preservation of internal and external financial stability, particularly the limitation of the current deficit to the rate of 2.4% of GDP in 2006, the reduction in the rate of external debt to 47.9% of the net income, the consolidation of monetary reserves, the control of budget deficit excluding donations and privatization to an average rate of 3.1% of the GDP. In the social field, the results of the Development Plan over the period 2002-2006 bring out the following facts; The creation of 372000 new jobs covering 92.7% of the additional demand and allowing for a reduction in the unemployment rate to 14.3% in 2006 versus 15.1% in 2001. The improvement of the per capita income which amounted to $7000 in 2006 in terms of purchasing power parity and the consolidation of the adjustment ratio at 30% in 2006 against 23% in 1996. The improvement of population and health indicators particularly the rise in life expectancy to 73.6 years in 2006 versus 72.9 years in 2001, the increase in medical coverage to 1 doctor for 1000 inhabitants versus 1245 inhabitants in 2001 and the decline of infant mortality to 20.3 per thousand versus 22.8 per thousand during the same period. The positive development of education indicators such as the percentage of children in the 6-11 age group in full-time education which rose to 97.4% in 2006 versus 94.56% in 2001, the percentage of students enrolled in Higher education which increased from 23.2 % to 34.3% during the same period, and the improvement of the internal efficiency of the education system particularly in terms of the fight against school failure especially at the basic education level. The enlargement of the social security cover which included 90.4% of individuals targeted by the legal framework of social security in 2006 as compared to 84.2% in 2001. 14 The improvement of living conditions in rural areas with an increased electrification rate from 81.7% in 2001 to 98.7% in 2006 and the development of the rate of potable water supply from 81.7% to 91.6% over the same period. The success of development policies and the significant economic and social performance recorded over the past five-years contributed favourably to the emergence of Tunisia's image, the achievement of a honourable rating granted by specialized agencies which considered Tunisia, on the basis of rigorous criteria, as one of the least risky countries. Indeed, Tunisia managed to obtain a privileged rank in terms of economic competitiveness as confirmed by the latest report of the Davos International Forum 2006-2007.
In addition, Tunisia was ranked 30th on the world scale in terms of overall competitiveness among 125 countries including industrial and emergent countries, thus occupying the first place in Africa and the Arab region. It was also ranked 26th at the international level in terms of business competitiveness.
2007-2011
Tunisia
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2007-2011
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2007-2011
Tunisia
Tunisia tackles a new and crucial stage in its development process, strong with its accomplishments and positive results boarding different fields, which consolidates its privileged position among the leading group of emerging countries. Confident in its capacity to meet challenges, Tunisia aspires to forge ahead with its march towards better prospects principally by further improving the living conditions of its entire population and ensuring continued progress, which would enable it to converge toward the level of developed nations within a reasonable period of time. On this basis, the development objectives set for the next period have been worked out with due consideration given to national priorities, relevant policies and programs and various challenges to be met.
1. Main objectives
In view of the profound transformations which will characterize the international arena during the next period and taking into account national expectations and choices, the development strategy for the upcoming period targets principally the following: Accelerated growth to raise the per capita income and reduce unemployment. Pursuance of a policy of income distribution aimed at improving the rate of human development, strengthening the place of the middle class and reducing poverty. In order to reach the main targets, it is necessary to step up ongoing efforts and gear them : to strengthen integration into the world economy by opting for export promotion and FDI; 18 to promote promising labour-intensive sectors; to optimize resource allocation; to preserve internal and external financial stability; to guarantee social peace and a better income distribution policy.
Accelerating economic growth, ensuring its sustainability and increasing its employment content as well as preserving financial stability constitute the fundamental pillars of the development scheme for the upcoming period. Accordingly, the projections made count principally on the following: a rise in GDP growth at the average rate of 6.1%, which will allow the per capita income to increase to 5763 dinars in 2011 as compared to 4064 dinars in 2006. This target is based on the contribution of productive sectors while favouring structural changes of the economic fabric through an increased share of marketable services in the GDP, which will rise from 47.1% in 2006 to 52.3% in 2011. It will depend on the performance of the ICT sector which will increase at an average rate of 17.5% and on consolidating the weight of promising high-value-added activities, which will account for 27.5% of the GDP in 2011 as against 20.4% in 2006. At the same time, sectoral outputs are expected to improve thanks to the efforts of restructuring and upgrading focused primarily on the adoption of new techniques. The growth of the agricultural sector will increase at an average annual rate of 3.5%; the growth rates of the industrial and tourist sectors will be respectively of 4.9% and 6.1%. In addition, the targeted growth rate assumes a continued improvement of the TPF the contribution of which is expected to reach 48% of GDP as compared to 41% registered during the Xth Plan period. An intensification of the investment effort through an increase in the investment rate from 22.2% of GDP in 2006 to 25% by the end of the XIth Plan. The contribution of private investment will be raised from 12.5% of GDP and 56.5% of overall investments in 2006 respectively to 16% and 63.5% in 2011. This target takes into account the improvement of FDI which will account for 3.3% of GDP in 2011. It is important to note that private investment will be geared more towards promising activities with high knowledge content, not only at the level of traditional sectors such as agriculture and tourism but also at the level of manufacturing industries or the targeted new service activities particularly the ICT, the financial and logistical services and those rendered to enterprises. The XIth Plan period will also witness the implementation of a number of major projects which will contribute to improving sectoral productivity, and promoting Tunis as an international business hub.
Tunisia
2. Development scheme
2007-2011
The creation of 412000 new jobs to cover 93.6% of additional demand thus reducing the unemployment rate from 14.3% in 2006 to 13.4% in 2011 in spite of the pressures exerted on the employment market due particularly to an increase in the additional demand relating to Tunisia's demographic transition and to a change in the structural composition of jobseekers characterized by rising numbers of Higher education graduates and an increased share of working females. The promotion of exports which will increase at an average rate of 6.6% at current prices in spite of exacerbated competition on the world markets. The contribution of exports to economic growth will thus increase to 37.3% during the XIth Plan versus 22.2% during the Xth Plan. Such a pace requires a diversification of exports and markets mainly through a greater contribution of high-value-added activities, particularly those branching out of the sectors of agriculture and food-processing, mechanical and electrical industries and services. Also expected is a diversification of targeted markets within the European Union, Tunisia's chief commercial partner, through the reinforcement of our positioning and an increase in our share of this market from 0.7% in 2006 to 1% in 2011 and also through access to other markets outside the European Union. The preservation of financial stability through optimized allocation of available resources. The current deficit will amount to 2.6% of GDP, thus encouraging the control of external debt at the rate of 39.1% of the available income by the end of the XIth Plan versus 47.9% in 2006. It is also planned that public finance balances will be preserved through the limitation of budget deficit around an average rate of 2.5% of GDP apart from privatization and donations. The targeted rate of inflation will not exceed the average of 2.8% thanks, in particular, to a strict monetary policy. The reinforcement of human development to guarantee equal opportunities, consolidate the middle class, reduce poverty and implant the culture of solidarity. Within this framework, the development strategy will be focused on the priority of active and sustainable treatment of vulnerable classes, the optimization of the income policy, the 20 consolidation of health and social security coverage and the advancement of women, youth, children and old persons. This policy is thus aimed at establishing the principle of comprehensiveness of development and the effective contribution of all the living forces to the attainment of development objectives, while at the same time ensuring a fair distribution of the fruits of growth.
The realization of the objectives of the XIth Plan covering the 2007-2011 period requires the deepening of reforms across the board and an acceleration of their pace to improve the functioning of the economy and better prepare it for full integration into the world economy. Accordingly, the adopted development strategy encompasses the objectives of acceleration of growth and employment, support of investment, acceleration of new business creation, export promotion, and preservation of major economic balances. The development targets also include investment in the human capital to improve human development indicators, the consolidation of the middle-class, the reduction of unemployment, the eradication of absolute poverty and the improvement of living conditions in general.
Boosting employment
Employment remains the absolute priority of the nation inasmuch as it represents the most significant challenge to be met considering the increasing numbers of additional job-seekers and the change in their structure towards an increase in the share of Higher education graduates. The various reforms implemented in this field aim, in particular, to speed up the process of jobcreation and control unemployment through the acceleration of the rate of growth, improved performance of the employment policy mechanisms and programs , encouragement of selfemployment and private initiative, in addition to complementarity between the systems of education, vocational training and Higher education, on the one hand, and on the other, the job market, over and above the strengthening of regional contribution to job-creation and an improved monitoring of the job market.
Tunisia
3. Development policies
2007-2011
Simultaneously, the reforms will concern the adequacy of the training and research system to market requirements, the development of a modern infrastructure, support of companies' adherence to quality systems, limitation of scattering of companies, encouragement of groupings and support for small- and medium-sized enterprises. In this regard, the intensification of efforts to accelerate the creation of new businesses constitutes the main priority of the upcoming period. This priority requires the identification of new investment opportunities in promising, innovative and labour-intensive sectors. It also requires a wider dissemination of the culture of private initiative among youth, particularly Higher education and vocational training graduates; the institution of a national and regional network to support investors and project promoters in addition, to the set up of the last group of business centers and an accelerated implementation of the national spin-off program. The enhancement of the pace of investment during the next period will require the proper use of the various mechanisms of investment promotion, continued efforts to set up technological parks and to attract foreign direct investments, development partnership in high-value-added activities, preservation of foreign companies operating in Tunisia and development of FDI attraction mechanisms to.
Meeting future challenges, achieving development targets and emphasizing the liberal approach require the preservation of sound financial balances. In this framework, efforts will be stepped up to further develop the tax system in order to reduce the companies' burden and to improve the tax output while modernizing the levying modes, reinforcing control, introducing quality systems in the tax administration, and improving the efficiency of public finances through gradual institution of budget management by objectives. Monetary and financial reforms during the forthcoming period will focus on continued modernisation of the banking sector through reinforcement of its financial basis and improvement of its technical capacities, development of risk analysis and control, modernization of service quality in conformity with international standards and institution of effective partnerships with regional and international financial institutions. On the other hand, efforts will be continued to further develop the financial market and increase its contribution to the financing of the economy. The reforms in this field will consist in strengthening supply and demand, enhancing transparency and the security of financial transactions, expanding market openness to foreign investors, encouraging companies to open up their capital to the public, mobilizing institutional savings and developing mechanisms of collective investment in securities.
Tunisia
2007-2011
teaching conditions, establishment of the information society, diversification of disciplines, particularly in the promising high-employability sectors and enhancement of interaction of education and training establishments with their environment and with national priorities. These policy guidelines are confirmed by the foreseeable development of the number of students which will rise to 478000 in 2011 and the number of vocational training graduates which will reach 65000 in the same year, as well as by future constraints on the job market. Moreover, the next five-year period will witness further promotion of the health, culture and sport sectors, the granting of particular care to the different population categories and treatment of the conditions of vulnerable classes with a view to improve all the social development indicators and provide a decent life for all social categories. In the field of health, efforts will be stepped up to further reinforce the health care system and improve the quality of its services, which will make it possible to increase life expectancy and tackle chronic and non-transmittable diseases. At the same time, social security coverage will be extended to all professional categories, besides strengthening the support and integration programs in favour of vulnerable classes. In addition, the different components of cultural and sport policies will be so consolidated as to bring them closer to the citizen and enhance their contribution to the fulfilment of development objectives. All the sectoral and specific policies and programs to be implemented during the next period aim to raise the income level and ensure a more equitable distribution of the fruits of growth, to maximize the weight of the middle class, to reduce the poverty rate and to improve the citizens' standard of living with a view of consolidating human development and raising it to the level of developed nations. 24
The estimates of the financing of the development plan for the next five-year period are based on the increase in financing needs which will amount to 81939.1 MD during the XIth Plan period versus 59726.7 MD during the Xth Plan, that is an increase of 37.2%. Financing requirements 2002-2006 MD Overall investment Stock variation Repayment of the debt principal and other expenditure Increase in reserves Total requirements National savings External financing Total resources 11423.1 5903.0 59726.7 38348.4 21378.3 59726.7 19.1 10.0 100.0 64.2 35.8 100.0 12090.7 3359.0 81939.1 59702.3 22236.8 81939.1 14.8 4.1 100.0 72.9 27.2 100.0 41236.0 1164.6 % 69.1 1.8 2007-2011 MD 63521.0 2968.4 % 77.5 3.6
The coverage of the above requirements will be ensured thanks to the foreseeable development of national savings insofar as the projections are based upon an increase in the savings rate to 23.5% of the net income in 2011 versus 21.4% in 2006 and a mobilization of external financing in the amount of 22236.8 MD versus 21378.3 MD during the 2002-2006 period. External financing 2002-2006 MD Donations Foreign investments and participation Government loans Commercial and financial loans Total 677.8 8455.9 6610.9 5633.7 21378.3 % 3.2 39.5 31.0 26.3 100.0 2007-2011 MD 620.0 8465.0 5650.0 7501.8 22236.8 % 2.8 38.0 25.4 33.8 100.0 25
Tunisia
2007-2011
The estimates in terms of mobilization of external resources during the next Plan are based on: he consolidation of FDI and participations which will amount to 8465 MD. This amount will be mobilized thanks to Tunisia's credibility in the view of specialized international authorities, the adoption of policies and measures aimed at improving the investment climate, the diversification of the investment fields and the strengthened support for investors. The raising of 620 MD in the form of donations to finance the structural reform programs and sectoral programs and projects from the European Union and a number of international institutions and fraternal and friendly countries. The mobilization of resources in the form of government loans in the amount of 5650 MD. Given the drawings made in terms of the loans raised to finance ongoing projects and programs, new loans are expected to be contracted in the overall amount of approximately 5400 MD. The resort to private loans in the amount of 7502 MD in the form of commercial and financial credits including debenture loans on the international financial markets which will be raised jointly by the State, the companies and the authorized banks.
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Appendix Main economic and social indicators
2007-2011
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% Growth of exports of goods and services Current deficit as % of GDP Foreign debt as % of net income External financing needs (MD) Foreign direct investment and participations Donations Government loans Commercial and financial loans
(1)
2002 2006
(1)
2007 2011 9.8 9.7 2.6 39.1 22 237 8 465 620 5 650 7 502
(2)
8.6
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4. External payments
2007-2011