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Technology Trends You Can't Afford to Ignore

Ray Paquet Managing VP

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Gartner delivers the technology-related insight necessary for our clients to make the right decisions, every day.

Did You Know?

1) 50% of U.S. 21 year olds have created content on the Web. 2) 70% of U.S. 4 year olds have used a computer. 3) Over 31 billion Google searches were performed last month vs. 2.6 billion 3 years ago.
Content access and management are the key enablers for IT.

Trends You Need to Watch

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Virtualization Is Just Beginning Big Data The Elephant in the Room Energy Efficiency and Monitoring Unified Communications Extended Staff Retention and Retraining Social Networks Ready or Not Legacy Migrations Your Users Compute Density Scale Vertically Cloud Computing Converged Fabrics

The Virtualization of Everything

How Does It Affect You?

Servers Storage
IT becomes one logical system Changing how IT is used Additional "power" on demand Mgmt. players: VMware, Microsoft, Citrix Systems Plays well with green IT Migration flexibility

Desktops

Networks

Next Monday Morning

Review consolidation plans; can we do more? Do you have all the virtualization bases covered? Do we have a plan?

Apps

Virtualization is a continuing process, not a one-time project.

Critical Time Frame(s) 2010 to 2012

Virtual Clients Becoming Real

Traditional Client
Standard PC Enterprise-owned Corporate image and installed applications

Emerging Client
Multidevice, mobile Remotely hosted (terminal services) Remotely hosted (virtual desktops) Non-enterprise-owned "Bubbles" (virtual machines) Streamed applications Software as a service

Did You Know?

More video was uploaded to

in the past two months than if ABC, CBS and NBC had been airing new content 24/7 since 1948

Business Trends Are Shaping Storage

Cloud-based services offer an alternative to on-premises IT infrastructures

Transition to virtualized server infrastructures drives shared-disk storage

Applications and users expect all data to be available all the time

Big Data
Five-year 800% growth 80% unstructured data Tiering critical to reduce costs Deduplication becoming standard Audit, archive and recovery increasingly complex Solid-state drives

2 How Does It Affect You?

Growth continues regardless of budget constraints Pattern-Based Strategy how will you manage? Demand-driven more access creates more data this will get worse Compliance, backup, audit, security Flash and SSDs will shift the landscape

Next Monday Morning

Virtualize storage, deduplication now Evaluate all data inputs, keep only what you need Segment and prioritize

Critical Time Frame(s) 2010 to 2013

Did You Know?

1) Data centers can consume 40x more energy than the offices they support. 2) Energy Star Data Center standards were announced in June 2010. 3) Monitoring and reporting on energy consumption will be expected by 2012.

Energy and Green IT

EPA and EU are getting involved Forced review of IT efficiency Intersection between facilities and IT The power issue is moving up the food chain Corporate social responsibility tightly linked Consumption becoming as critical as performance New construction and retrofits focus on efficiency and reuse

3 How Does It Affect You?

Increased awareness/focus on power Compute-to-consumption ratios critical EU or EPA metrics are coming New KPIs based on efficiency

Next Monday Morning

Begin evaluation of PUE and/or PPE Begin continuous improvement planning Begin evaluating DCIM vendors Focus on consumption, rather than technologies

Critical Time Frame(s) 2011 to 2012

Automation and Monitoring

Critical key success factor!

How Does It Affect You? ITIL and Process Improvement Orchestration Integration
Reduce amount of effort expended by IT professionals on the day-to-day routine aspects of I&O Principally an "O" issue: "The Human Use of Human Beings"

Mgmt. Processes

Workflow

Next Monday Morning

Where are you with ITIL? CMDB? Review Gartner's automation framework

Critical Time Frame(s) ITIL and CMDB: Now RBA: 2012

Did You Know?

Wikipedia launched in 2001, and averages 4,300 new articles every day. A current-generation network switch could move all 13 million articles

in 0.001 seconds.

Unified Communications and Collaboration

E-Mail Workspaces Wireless

How Does It Affect You?

Combines many overlapping areas A technology and organizational issue
VoIP

Text/SMS

Strong area for managed services to take hold

IM

Unified Communications Tightly integrated communications applications

Next Monday Morning

VTC

Are your apps providers planning for taking advantage of unified communications? What's their strategy? What other UC business scenarios make sense in your business?

ATC Presence PBX Mobility

Critical Time Frame 2011 to 2013

?
584? 1,150? 1,812?

Did You Know?

How many text messages the average American teenager sends each month?

2,282 per month

Mobile Unified Communications

Mobile platform is the key unifier Integration of corporate and social media streams Presence and context primary application targets Applications can drive UC&C business case
Mobile Extension Unified Messaging/ Calling Presence

HIGH VALUE
FixedMobile
Replacement

LocationBased Services

LOW VALUE

Did You Know?

The U.S. Department of Labor estimates that

those in today's labor force will have 10 to 14 jobs

by the age of

Creating the "T"-Shaped IT Staff

Value to the Business

Critical Skills Needed

Vertical focus is limiting Breadth of knowledge rare Project management skills Understand cascade effects

Business Linkages
Value to the IT Group

Related Skills

Related Skills

What Can You Do?

Get out of comfort zones Enable/reward learning Cross-pollinate skills Break down silos

Technology Depth

Did You Know?

Facebook reached 500 million users in July Twitters' world rank would be No. 7.

Open-Source Collaboration
Consumer input can drive IT

How Does It Affect You?

You cannot stop them long term New employees bring their networks to work

Next Monday Morning

Begin evaluation of usage patterns Develop a code of conduct for usage Listen to the collective carefully Focus on consumption, rather than technologies

Critical Time Frame(s) 2010 to 2012

Migrations Windows and Office

You have less time than you think

Reduced ISV support for XP

XP extended support ends

3-Year Attrition 4-Year Attrition 5-Year Attrition Forklift Accel/Attrition

How Does It Affect You? It affects everyone Depending on license downgrading, XP ends when Windows 7 SP1 ships Ensure viability/value of Office licenses Next Monday Build a migration timeline Build inventories, classify applications and users Critical vendors Windows/Office support? Critical Time Frames: Windows 2000 and XP SP2 support ended Windows XP support ends April 2014 Office 2003 support ends April 2014 The longer you wait to start, the faster you need to move!

Related Research: G00174449

Did You Know?

In 1997, a gigabyte of Flash memory cost $7,870. Today, it costs $1.25.

Compute and Data Center Density

Cores doubling every two years Racks continue to get denser Liquid cooling on the increase Movement toward smaller size, greater density in DCs Energy efficiency a key factor
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

How Does It Affect You?

Virtualization is critical to success Trend is high-density, high use of floor space Utilization levels and compute-toenergy ratios paramount by 2012

Next Monday Morning

Analyze asset use (highs and lows) Map server growth to energy and cooling required Engage facilities team

Critical Time Frame(s) 2010 to 2012

New Server ($B)

Power and Cooling ($B)

Installed Base (M)

Performance per Core/Kilowatt

Consider upgrades in place Reduce refresh cycle times Double capacity and reduce energy Retain your footprint Increase cores, virtualization, or force parallel processing
Server performance per kilowatt gains can justify the purchase price ...
Watts per Server Model

Cloud Computing
Where do I compute? Who do I trust? Stabilize service levels Shrinking data centers Commodity services

9 How Does It Affect You?

Common services are available now may reduce operating expenses Private clouds improve agility and will dominate Reassess critical compute requirements Ignore the hype focus on results

Next Monday Morning

Evaluate commodity services you provide and what can move to the cloud Evaluate cloud delivery model for internal use Categorize applications/services based on SLAs and risk before proceeding

Critical Time Frame(s) 2010 to 2013

Fabric Computing or Infrastructure Convergence

The end of "silos"?

10

How Does It Affect You?

Completely different approach to data center design Highly scalable via resource pools

Next Monday Morning

Assess; be ready when vendors come knocking on your door Develop long-term data center strategy; think "hybrid"

Critical Time Frame(s) 2012 to 2014

Did You Know?

The computer in your cell phone today is a million times cheaper, and a thousand times more powerful,
and about a hundred thousand times smaller

than the one computer installed at MIT in 1965

"So, what used to fit in a building, now fits in your pocket, and what fits in your pocket now, will fit inside a blood cell in 25 years"
Source: Ray Kurzweil

Recommendations
Take virtualization to the next level focused on all facets of IT. Scale vertically first, horizontally second. The new KPI will be about compute per kilowatt. Staff skill sets will reach a crisis point if not addressed soon. Look again at incentives and motivational techniques. Social networks will be an impact on all enterprises get ready for it. Fabric-based systems are the future eventually.

Your Action Plan

CIOs and enterprise architects should Monday Morning
- Assess all projects and their relationships look horizontally. - Prioritize based on risk, reward and long-term impact.

Your Next 90 Days

- Look again at capacity planning without presumptions. - Assess staff skills based on breadth of knowledge and value to the business, not just value to IT.

Your Next 12 Months

- Review opportunities to converge networks, infrastructures and skill sets. - Establish impact on other business plans.

Related Gartner Research

"Microsoft's Desktop Virtualization Strategy Is Becoming Clearer" by Mark A. Margevicius (G00175894) "Understanding 'Client in the Cloud'" by Stephen Kleynhans (G00174116) "IT Infrastructure and Operations Key Initiatives, 2010 and 2011" by Jay E. Pultz (G00174909) "Grow Disk Storage 800% or More, Without Increasing Power or Cooling Costs, in the Same Space" by Dave Cappuccio (G00175118)
For more information, stop by Gartner Solution Central or e-mail us at solutioncentral@gartner.com.

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