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Climate Change Adaptation in Asian River Basins

1-5 December 2008, Selangor, Malaysia

The Case of the Chu and Talas River Basin in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic

R. Abdukayumov Sr. Project Implementation Officer Asian Development Bank Uzbekistan Resident Mission

The views expressed in this paper/presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of (ADB) Governors represent the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

Central Asia

Chu-Talas Basin Amudarya Syrdayra


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Presentation Plan
1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Water Management Challenges in Central Asia Introduction to the Chu Talas River Basin Issues on Water and Climate Change Adaptation The Chu Talas Joint River Commission Ongoing and Proposed Initiatives Collaboration with NAHRIM

Water Management Challenges in Central Asia


Water demand to meet population growth Irrigated agriculture to ensure employment Huge pumping systems and reservoirs Water for irrigation versus water for power generation g p g Interdependence of upstream and downstream countries Climate Change Impact

Water Management Challenges g g in Central Asia


Disaster of the Aral Sea and deltas Conflicts between human needs and nature Desertification Soil salinity and erosion y Decreasing biodiversity Surface and groundwater pollution Increasing incidence of water-born diseases and mortality water-

Map of the Chu and Talas Basins

TALAS

CHU 6

Chu Talas Basin Data Ch T l B i D t


Chu River: Total Length Total Area One Reservoir Three Main Canals Interfarm Canals One Main Control Structure Water Intake Facilities 1,186 km 62,500 km 62,500 km 470 mln. m3 284 km 1,700 km 665 m3/sec 3,900 , 444 km 52,700 km 2,700 km 550 mln. m3 979 km 1,150
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Talas River: Total Length Total Area One Reservoir Interfarm Canals Water Intake Facilities

Chu Talas Basin Data


Water formation: by snow and glaciers in KGZ ate o at o s o a d g ac e s G mountains Temperature: Summer Winter Average +24oC Average -5oC Max +43oC Max -38oC

Water sharing: Chu Basin Talas Basin KAZ 42% KAZ 50% KGZ 58% KGZ 50%
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Climate Change I Cli t Ch Issues


KAZ and KGZ have joined the Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1995 and 2000, respectively Two National Reports on Climate Change have been prepared HydroHydro-meteorological data for the last 100 years was analyzed The i h impact of climate change on availability of f li h il bili f water resources studied but no recommendations developed

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Main Issues on Water and Climate Change Adaptation in the Chu Talas River Basin
Mountainous ecosystems are more vulnerable to climate change due to availability of glaciers and snowfields During the last 100 years average air temperature in KGZ increased by 1.6oC compared with 0.6oC of global average In the next 100 years average air temperature in KGZ is expected to increase by 2-3oC 2There are 2000 mountainous lakes, 330 lakes formed by 000 ou ous s, s o d y melting glaciers have a risk of bursting Some of these lakes are close to tailing pits containing hazardous waste from mining industry
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Main Issues on Water and Climate Change g Adaptation in the Chu Talas River Basin
Accelerated melting of glaciers Change in the annual river flows (no droughts) Bigger fluctuation of water availability between vegetation and nonnon-vegetation periods Floods, mudflows and landslides , Impact on hydro-power generation and economy hydroImpact on crop yields and cropping pattern Impact on timing of O&M activities

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KAZ Water R W t Resources C Committee itt

KGZ Water E W t Economy Department D t t

Chu Talas Joint River Commission


KAZ Co Chair Co-Chair KGZ Co-Chair Co Chair

Secretariat
KAZ Co-Chair KGZ Co-Chair

A Legal and Institutional Issues

B Water Resources Allocation

C O&M and Rehabilitation Works

D Economics, E i Environment, Monitoring, Data Exchange

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Ongoing Water and Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives in the Chu Talas River Basin
10 Monitoring Stations in the Talas Basin in KGZ 5 Monitoring Stations in the Chu Basin in KGZ 6 Meteorological Stations in KAZ ADB assistance: 10 sets of computers installed at key water facilities Computerized models for water assessment and allocations developed Automated Management Information System at Kirov Reservoir i

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Ongoing Water and Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives in the Chu Talas River Basin
Water Assessment Model for Chu Basin at Kirov Reservoir (Deviation 0.1%)
2007 Projected and Actual Water Volume in Kirov Reservoir During Vegetation

600 500 400 m illio n m 3 300 200 100 0


Actual At l Apr I Apr II 478.3 497 Apr II 469.1 486.6 486 6 May I 463.4 468.7 468 7 May II 446.3 446.7 446 7 MayIII 433.3 430.7 430 7 Jun I 414.9 416.7 416 7 Jun II 404.6 398.3 398 3 Jun III 390.3 373.3 373 3 Jul I 355.5 344.2 344 2 Jul II 296.6 290.3 290 3 Jul III 228.9 233.9 233 9 Aug I 169.9 176.7 176 7 Aug II 125.9 128.9 128 9 Aug III 87.2 97.9 97 9 Sep I 79.5 81.6 81 6 Sep II 88.9 81 Sep III 100.8 79.6 79 6

Projection 464.5 475.7 475 7

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Ongoing Water and Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives in the Chu Talas River Basin
Water Assessment Model for Talas Basin (Deviation 0.1-0.6%) 0.12007 Projected and Actual Water Volumes to be Shared by KAZ and KGZ During Vegetation

120 100
m illion m 3

80 60 40 20 0
Apr I 14.7 14.8 Apr II 15.5 26.2 Apr II 17.8 26.4 May I 32.4 45.4 May II 40.7 46.5 MayIII 57.8 54.6 Jun I 71.8 67.9 Jun II 80 88.7 Jun III 86.9 97.9 Jul I 79.2 84.2 Jul II 73.8 62.5 Jul III 72 52.1 Aug I 63.3 46 Aug II 52.1 43.6 Aug III 46.5 42.3 Sep I 53.1 53.7 Sep II 47.5 53.1 Sep III 43.7 49

Projection (Total 948.8) Actual (Total 954.9)

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Planned Wate and Climate Change Water Adaptation Initiatives in the Chu Talas River Basin
Two expert groups of the Commission (on water allocation and environment) will be responsible for working on climate change issues Use of computerized water assessment models developed for the Chu and Talas basins in order to: Measure actual volume of water resources used by both countries Measure change in water flow regimes during vegetation and non-vegetation non-

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Planned Water and Climate Change g Adaptation Initiatives in the Chu Talas River Basin Simulate Sim late change in water flow regimes under ate flo egimes nde different scenarios of climate change Determine possible water intakes for both countries during vegetation and non-vegetation nonRecommend optimal cropping pattern and crop rotation based on availability of water resources Estimate funding needs and timing for operation and maintenance of water infrastructure
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Planned Water and Climate Change g Adaptation Initiatives in the Chu Talas River Basin Rehabilitate key control structures Improve automation for water allocation I t ti f t ll ti Develop IWRM plans for two basins Capacity building of stakeholder institutions Public awareness and information dissemination

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Expectations from the Regional Knowledge Hub (NAHRIM) and its Network
Climate Change Projections
Share methodology for climate change projections Share projections for the next 10-20 years to compare 10-

Impact Assessments
Share methodology for Impact Assessment Share best practices of Impact Assessment in other river basins p p

Adaptation Strategies
Share information on adaptation strategy development (who and how) Share any results of successful introduction of adaptation strategies

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Proposed Collaboration with NAHRIM

Compare computer models for simulation of climate change impact Learn about other tools for climate change adaptation Training/Information sharing on institutional arrangements g/ g g for monitoring climate change impact Other proposals are welcome

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For details please visit: www.talaschu.org

THANK YOU!

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