AGRI

Market

Global Research Limited

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Spices Finishes Up On Short Covering

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segment

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Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

J E E R A ( J U LY )

G U A R S E E D ( J U LY )

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

JEERA SETTLES HIGHER ON OVERSEAS DEMAND

Expert
Opinion

GUARSEED GAINS ON FRESH BUYING

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Jeera spot prices as well as Futures settled 1.29% and 2.91% higher respectively anticipating revival of demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. There are reports that Syria, the other major producer of the spice is not offering its produce due to tensions in the region. Arrivals and off takes in the domestic mandi remained steady around 11,000 bags and 12,000 bags respectively. Production of Jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 21 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). Fresh crop arrivals from Syria and Turkey have commenced however, clear estimates about the crop size will be known only by the end the month (June). But there are reports that the crop is not of good quality. According to Spices Board of India exports of Jeera from India during April 2010- March 2011 stood at 32,500 tonnes as compared to 49,750 tonnes in 2009-10, decline of 35%. Jeera prices in the intraday are likely to trade sideways to up owing to improvement in demand from the domestic and overseas buyers. In medium to long term (August onwards), Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Prices will also take cues from the carryover stocks of Jeera with India. This season carryover stocks are expected to remain at the lower side owing to lower production. This is likely to support prices.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Guar seed and gum futures traded upside last week owing to good buying by traders across the spot markets. The substantial gain in spot price by Rs.50 per quintal (to Rs.3620 against Rs.3570 per quintal) supported the prices to trade higher. Concerns regarding in time arrival of monsoon over the Guar producing region of Rajasthan kept the traders buying actively across the spot markets. Guar seed and gum futures are expected to rise for the next week. The monsoon has extended its reach over Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana but is yet to reach north-west region of India which is the major Guar producing belt. According to IMD the monsoon was expected to reach north-west region by this weekend however, the recent progress of monsoon might raise the concern of Guar growers. Therefore, traders are likely to continue buying across the physical markets owing to these concerns which might support the prices to gain further during the next week. However, the significant rise in prices over last 3 days might prompt the traders to go for profit booking. Derivative analysis (increase in price, volume and decline in open interest) indicates volatility in prices which might be biased towards downside.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Good overseas demand Low carryover stocks

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Jeera did our target of 14650 above the level of 14470, and even closed above it. Last week initially Jeera was consolidating in a range but in the second half of the week we saw good buying coming at lower levels. For the next week Jeera has resistance at 15300 and support at 14850.

STRATEGY
Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one should use the strategy of buying at lower levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains above the level of 15300 then we can expect the level of 15550, and if it sustains below 14850 then we can see the level of 14650.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Weather concerns Fresh buying

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Guarseed did our target of 3600 above the level of 3560 and even closed above it. Last week Guarseed opened on a negative note but for rest of the week it remained bullish and closed near to its weekly high. For the next week Guarseed has resistance at 3800 and support at 3650.

STRATEGY
For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 3800 we can see the level of 3850, and below 3650 it can touch the level of 3610.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 17275 16069 15639 14863 14433 13657 12451

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4333 4000 3885 3665 3551 3331 2997

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Weekly Chart

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

SOYABEAN ( A U G U S T )

C H A N A (AUGUST)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

SOYBEAN TRADES UP ON GLOBAL CUES

Expert
Opinion

CHANA SURGES ON SEASONAL DEMAND

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
NCDEX July Soy Bean futures traded higher on account of firm overseas market as news of China buying US Soybeans 112,000 tonnes. However, Soybean prices could not sustain higher levels due to profit taking and increased arrivals of Soybean to 30,000 bags in Madhya Pradesh as compared to previous day of 15,000 bags ( bags=100 quintal). Arrivals in Indore Mandi were around 3,000 bags. Kharif oilseed sown 7.43 lakh hectare till June 23, 2011, it is lower as compared to last year of 11.68 lakh hectares. However, area under Soybean increased to 1.18 lakh hectares as compared to 1.03 lakh hectare last year. The USDA's weekly export inspections came in at 8.73 million bushels which was slightly higher than expected and compares with 12.17 million bushels necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the old crop season. Talk that drought conditions in the southern plains could expand east into southern Soybean growing areas also provided support to Soybean prices. However, pick up in Soybean sowing in Madhya Pradesh after receiving a better rain in major growing regions may cap sharp gains. Government has raised the Minimum Support price (MSP) of Soybean to Rs.1,690/qtl from Rs.1,440/qtl. This will induce farmers to go for improved sowing of the Soybean. Oilseed complex are expected to trade range bound amid subdued trading activity on lack of fresh fundamentals.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Chana futures traded positive last week. Traders took advantage of previous week and kept buying at lower price levels which supported the prices to rise further. Spot price remained stable at Rs.2626 per quintal. Arrivals in benchmark Delhi spot market remained stable at 50 trucks. However, anticipated rise in demand for festive season by the traders supported the prices to gain. The rally in Chana futures has been positive during the second quarter of this year as the prices have gone up by around 15 per cent since April. Major driving factor has been the ongoing demand for the upcoming festive season supported by declining arrivals across the physical markets. We expect Chana futures to trade positive during the next week. Rise in retail demand for Chana might support good buying across the spot markets. The acreage under Kharif pulses has declined by 8 per cent (from 4.09 lakh ha to 3.77 lakh ha) compared to that of last year during same time. This would rather add as a part of concern to the traders who are expecting entire pulses production to rise this year. The ongoing damage to the recently sown pulses in Canada due to floods coupled with decline in acreage in Saskatchewan (major pulse growing region) might have an impact over Indian market sentiments. According to derivative analysis, increase in price, volume and decline in open interest indicates the possible chances of correction owing to the significant rise in prices on the previous week.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Firm overseas market Weak arrivals

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Soybean opened on a negative note but in the later part of the week we saw good buying coming at lower levels and it even closed near to its weekly high. For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2345 and support at 2295.

STRATEGY
Soybean is moving in a consolidation phase on charts and one should look for buying opportunities at lower levels, if Soybean sustains above the level of 2345 we can see the level of 2370, and on the downside if it sustains below the level of 2295 we can see Soybean at 2270 level.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Lower level buying Seasonal demand

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Chana did our target of 2800 above the level of 2765 and even closed above it. Chana was in a bullish trend for most part of the previous week as it sustained above the important resistance of 2830 and we saw good buying coming at lower levels. For the next week Chana has resistance at 2950 and support at 2830.

STRATEGY
Overall trend of Chana is bullish and one should go for buying at lower levels strategy in it. For the coming week if Chana sustains above 2950 level we can see it at 2980 and below 2830 we can expect the level of 2800.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2454 2385 2362 2317 2293 2248 2180

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3134 3005 2960 2876 2831 2747 2618

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Weekly Chart

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA PPRMLGKOC TMCFGRNZM GARSEDJDR GARGUMJDR CHARJDDEL SYBEANIDR SYOREFIDR RMSEEDJPR COCUDAKL GURCHMUZR POTATO KAPASSRNR WHTSMQDELI MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX MCX MCX

20 JUL -11 20-JULY-11 20-JULY-11 20-JULY-11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 19-AUG -11 20-JUL- 11 19-AUG -11 30-APR-12 20-JULY-11 30-JULY-11 15- JULY-11

Jeera Pepper Turmeric Guarseed Guargum Chana Soybean Soy Oil Refined Rape Mustard Seed Cotton Seed Oil Cake Gur Potato Kapas Wheat Mentha oil Cardamom

RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/10KGS RS/20KGS RS/QUINTAL RS/40KGS RS/QUINTAL RS./20KG RS/QUINTAL RS/KG RS/KG

14255 27426 7906 3536 11205 2814 2308.5 638.15 2888 1187 982.5 396.2 682.8 1169.2 867.1 868.3

14250 27400 7930 3521 11101 2818 2301 636 2875 1185 979.5 394.7 680 1166.6 867.5 865

15294 27750 7972 3780 12074 2922 2340.5 642.4 2888 1273 987.5 397 688.6 1195 959 865

14088 26825 7450 3446 10869 2793 2272 627.55 2840 1168 969.5 378.5 662.1 1164.2 867.5 818.8

15209 27219 7820 3771 11982 2915 2338.5 640.8 2876 1250 983 386.7 682 1185 946.2 826.2

48231 35777 29010 1273290 83650 809580 224860 640230 308680 184200 22700 28575 5123 32900 16220 12570

954 -207 -86 235 777 101 30 2.65 -12 63 0.5 -9.5 -0.8 15.8 79.1 -42.1

11772 7548 8410 187600 48875 229600 119340 89980 166700 40420 9400 20970 3259 33110 3068 1888

59,352.67 88,935.18 19,760.46 374,733.70 75,587.07 170,811.78 41,450.60 362,142.00 74,345.44 19,111.12 4,537.28 950.68 5,856.81 3,592.68 63617.50 10118.72
* Turnover Till Friday

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Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Week : July 04th to 09th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Weekly Pivots

Exchange
NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX

Commodity
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN SOY OIL REFINED RAPE MUSTARD SEED COTTONSEED OIL CAKE GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

Closing Price
15209 27219 7820 3771 11982 2915 2338.5 640.8 2876 1250 983 386.7 682 1185 946.2 826.2

% Change
6.69 -0.75 -1.09 6.65 6.93 3.59 1.30 0.42 -0.42 5.31 0.05 -2.40 -0.12 1.35 9.12 -4.85

Scripts
JEERA (JULY) PEPPER (JULY) TURMERIC (JULY) GUARSEED (JULY) GUARSGUM (AUG) CHANA (AUG) SOYBEAN (AUG) REFINED SOYA OIL (JULY) MUSTARD (JULY)

R3
17275.67 29114.67 8791.33 4333.67 14051.67 3134.67 2454.00 666.62 2964.00

R2
16069.67 28189.67 8269.33 3999.67 12846.67 3005.67 2385.50 651.77 2916.00 1335.33 998.00 405.90 704.07 1015.73 882.87

R1
15639.33 27704.33 8044.67 3885.33 12414.33 2960.33 2362.00 646.28 2896.00 1292.67 990.50 396.30 693.03 980.97 854.53

PP
14863.67 27264.67 7747.33 3665.67 11641.67 2876.67 2317.00 636.92 2868.00 1230.33 980.00 387.40 677.57 924.23 836.67

S1
14433.33 26779.33 7522.67 3551.33 11209.33 2831.33 2293.50 631.43 2848.00 1187.67 972.50 377.80 666.53 889.47 808.33

S2
13657.67 26339.67 7225.33 3331.67 10436.67 2747.67 2248.50 622.07 2820.00 1125.33 962.00 368.90 651.07 832.73 790.47

S3
12451.67 25414.67 6703.33 2997.67 9231.67 2618.67 2180.00 607.22 2772.00 1020.33 944.00 350.40 624.57 741.23 744.27

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (AUG) 1440.33 GUR (JULY) POTATO (AUG) KAPAS (APR 2012) MENTHA OIL (JULY) CARDAMOM (JULY) 1016.00 424.40 730.57 1107.23 929.07

Disclaimer

Weekly Gainers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price 946.2 11982 15209 % Change 9.12 6.93 6.69

Weekly Losers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price 826.2 386.7 7820 % Change -4.85 -2.40 -1.09

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Investment in Commodity has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above. The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

MENTHA OIL 30-JUL- 11 GUARGUM JEERA 19-AUG-11 20-JUL-11

CARDAMOM 15-JULY-11 POTATO TURMERIC 19-AUG-11 20-JUL- 11

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