AGRI

Market

Global Research Limited

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Spices Settles Lower On Profit Booking

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segment

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Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

J E E R A ( J U LY )

G U A R S E E D ( J U LY )

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

JEERA DECLINES ON PROFIT BOOKING

Expert
Opinion

GUARSEED, GUM FUTURES EXTEND DOWNTREND

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Jeera prices remained range bound to positive at spot market of Unjha last week. Reports of delay in Syria crop due to war also supported the prices. Thus, on cues from spot futures also traded higher during first half of the week. However, later on prices fell sharply at futures amid profit booking at higher levels. Jeera prices are forecast to trade slightly positive amid declining arrivals at spot market of Unjha. Report of emerging export demand might support the prices. However, futures are expected to witness corrections as investors might book their profit at higher levels during initial days next week. Arrivals at spot market of Unjha are remaining stable at 2000-2500 bags (Each bag= 55Kg.). According to trade sources, cumin production in Syria and Turkey are expected around 30,000 and 10,000 MT. However, reports of civil war in Syria are affecting the harvesting which is pushing export demand towards India. According to derivative analysis, prices and open interest have declined while volumes have increased. It is an indication that traders are more interested in selling at volumes in selling side is rising. Price fall along with declining open interest is being caused by liquidating all long side positions.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Guar seed and gum futures continued to trade downside last week. Prices in the physical market had declined to Rs.3755 against Rs.3790 per quintal. Monsoon has reached Jodhpur and is likely to progress over other regions of Rajasthan therefore it affected the market sentiments. The traders continued to sell at higher price levels owing to earlier gains which led the prices to remain downside. Guar seed and gum futures are expected to extend its downtrend for the next week. The monsoon has reached Jodhpur regions of Rajasthan which is among the major Guar growing region of India. According to IMD, monsoon conditions have started building up and might progress over remaining parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat in coming 2-3 days. The Guar growers are hopeful about the recent progress of monsoon therefore the effect is likely to be seen over the market sentiments. Traders are likely to take advantage of rally in prices over last week and might continue selling at higher price levels supporting the decline in prices. According to derivative analysis, decrease in price and open interest while increase in volume indicates that market is biased towards selling side which supports bearish trend.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Profit booking Higher level selling

MARKET OVERVIEW
Jeera looks technically weak on charts. Last week Jeera remained bearish throughout the week and was not sustaining at higher levels. For the next week Jeera July has resistance at 15040 and support at 13640.

STRATEGY
Jeera is in downward phase and one should use the strategy of sell on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains below the level of 14080 then we can expect the level of 13850, and if it sustains above 14600 then we can see the level of 15100.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Profit booking Good monsoon

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Guarseed was in upward consolidation phase and sustaining at higher levels. We can see further upward trend in it. For the next week Guarseed July has resistance at 3860 and support at 3660.

STRATEGY
For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 3830 we can see the level of 3920, and below 3710 it can touch the level of 3660.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 17320 15991 15168 14662 13839 13333 12004

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4078 3935 3867 3792 3724 3649 3506

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Weekly Chart

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

SOYABEAN ( A U G U S T )

C H A N A (AUGUST)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

SOYBEAN ENDS IN RED ON POOR SPOT DEMAND

Expert
Opinion

CHANA FUTURES WITNESS CORRECTION, SPOT PRICES FALL

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
NCDEX July Soybean futures ended in red on account of poor demand in physical market. Higher sowing acreage of Soybean this year till date as compared to last year also added bearish market sentiment. Total arrivals of Soybean declined to 45,000 bags in Madhya Pradesh as compared to previous day of 55,000 bags ( bags=100 quintal). Arrivals in Indore mandi were around 4,000 bags. Arrivals in Maharashtra and Rajasthan were 15,000 bags and 10,000 bags respectively. Soybean prices in Indore mandi improved to Rs 2200-2220/quintal as compared to previous days of Rs 2170-2230/quintal, The USDA's weekly exports sales released on June 30. i.e. Thursday, which shows that the export sales for Soybean came in showing cancellations of 335,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 458,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 122,500. Cumulative old crop of Soybean sales stand at 99.0% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 97.2% sold. Net meal sales came in at 108,300 metric tonnes old crop as compared with 78,000 metric tonnes needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 23,600 tonnes versus 13,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. From the Census Oil Stocks report, Soybean oil usage to produce bio-diesel jumped to 232.7 million pounds in May which was the highest monthly total since December of 2009 and was up from 216.8 million the previous month and 102.6 million the previous year.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Chana futures traded downside last week. Market had undergone correction as the prices across the spot markets fell to Rs.2750 against Rs.2775 per quintal. The arrivals in the Delhi spot market declined to 80 trucks from previous day's 125 trucks. Traders took advantage of earlier gains and went for selling at higher price levels which led the futures to end the week in red. Chana futures are likely to open downside while recovery is expected during the next week. The monsoon is expected to extend its spread over Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra which are among the major pulse growing states of India. Though presently the area under Kharif pulses has declined by 8 per cent the recent monsoon prospect might come as a hope for pulse growers. The existing retail demand for Chana might help the prices to recover. The seeding progress in Canada has been affected by floods caused due to heavy rains. The acreage under pulses in Canada is projected to decline by 20.4 per cent this crop year. This might have an impact over Indian market sentiments. According to derivative analysis, decline in price, volume and open interest indicates a bullish trend as the traders might go for buying at lower price levels.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Poor spot demand Higher sowing acreage

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Soybean was down for most part of week. Technically it looks weak on chart & sustaining at lower levels. For the next week Soybean August has resistance at 2320 and support at 2255.

STRATEGY
For next week in Soybean one should go for sell on higher level strategy if it sustains below 2270 we can see the level of 2240 on the downside & if it sustains above the level of 2320 we can see Soybean at 2350 level.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Profit booking Higher level selling

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week Chana was in a tight range and was neither sustaining at higher levels nor at lower, but still we can see good selling coming in Chana at higher levels. For the next week Chana August has resistance at 2940 and support at 2834.

STRATEGY
For next week in Chana August one should go for sell on higher level strategy if it sustains below 2865 we can see the level of 2830 on the downside & if it sustains above the level of 2940 we can see Chana at 2990 level.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2465 2395 2353 2326 2284 2256 2187

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3070 2982 2936 2894 2848 2806 2718

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Weekly Chart

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA PPRMLGKOC TMCFGRNZM GARSEDJDR GARGUMJDR CHARJDDEL SYBEANIDR SYOREFIDR RMSEEDJPR COCUDAKL GURCHMUZR POTATO KAPASSRNR WHTSMQDELI MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX MCX MCX

20-JULY-11 20-JULY-11 20-JULY-11 20-JULY-11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 20 JUL -11 20 JUL -11 19-AUG -11 20-JUL- 11 19-AUG -11 30-APR-12 20-JULY-11 30-JULY-11 15- JULY-11

Jeera Pepper Turmeric Guarseed Guargum Chana Soybean Soy Oil Refined Rape Mustard Seed Cotton Seed Oil Cake Gur Potato Kapas Wheat Mentha oil Cardamom

RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/10KGS RS/20KGS RS/QUINTAL RS/40KGS RS/QUINTAL RS./20KG RS/QUINTAL RS/KG RS/KG

15250 27297 7830 3773 11984 2917 2338.5 641.75 2924 1253 983 386.1 684.3 1213.6 946.2 826.2

15274 27289 7850 3790 12088 2920 2340 644 2926 1254 984 387.7 687.9 1218 948 818.5

15485 27427 7850 3860 12249 2940 2368 646 2935 1263 1015 404 695 1218 1110.7 831

14156 26532 7480 3717 11770 2852 2298.5 632.2 2880 1203 984 387.6 649 1189 946 801.4

14345 26899 7640 3799 12006 2890 2311.5 640.05 2890 1252 990 395.8 665.9 1203.4 1079.7 814.2

61401 22824 23815 1305140 114185 1165640 230970 496350 260050 252590 30080 51720 665.9 19150 51479 7940

-905 -398 -190 26 22 -27 -27 -1.7 -34 -1 7 9.7 -18.4 -10.2 133.5 -12

8388 6581 9040 133680 35980 258720 120420 141460 110630 58130 10190 30315 3560 20910 3117 2062

84,027.45 59,085.81 16,914.54 428,891.26 116,189.29 310,168.75 50,563.59 298,166.64 71,391.15 24,277.32 7,010.10 1,884.92 7,265.97 1,811.47 193968.880 5831.76
* Turnover Till Friday

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Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Weekly Pivots

Exchange
NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX

Commodity
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN SOY OIL REFINED RAPE MUSTARD SEED COTTONSEED OIL CAKE GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

Closing Price
14345 26899 7640 3799 12006 2890 2311.5 640.05 2890 1252 990 395.8 665.9 1203.4 1079.7 814.2

% Change
-5.93 -1.46 -2.43 0.69 0.18 -0.93 -1.15 -0.26 -1.16 -0.08 0.71 2.51 -2.69 -0.84 14.11 -1.45

Scripts
JEERA (JULY) PEPPER (JULY) TURMERIC (JULY) GUARSEED (JULY) GUARSGUM (AUG) CHANA (AUG) SOYBEAN (AUG) REFINED SOYA OIL (AUG) MUSTARD (AUG)

R3
17320.00 28742.67 8396.67 4078.00 12966.33 3070.00 2465.00 667.02 3011.67

R2
15991.00 27847.67 8026.67 3935.00 12487.33 2982.00 2395.50 653.22 2956.67 1299.33 1027.33 412.20 715.97 1210.17 845.13

R1
15168.00 27373.33 7833.33 3867.00 12246.67 2936.00 2353.50 646.63 2923.33 1275.67 1008.67 404.00 690.93 1144.93 829.67

PP
14662.00 26952.67 7656.67 3792.00 12008.33 2894.00 2326.00 639.42 2901.67 1239.33 996.33 395.80 669.97 1045.47 815.53

S1
13839.00 26478.33 7463.33 3724.00 11767.67 2848.00 2284.00 632.83 2868.33 1215.67 977.67 387.60 644.93 980.23 800.07

S2
13333.00 26057.67 7286.67 3649.00 11529.33 2806.00 2256.50 625.62 2846.67 1179.33 965.33 379.40 623.97 880.77 785.93

S3
12004.00 25162.67 6916.67 3506.00 11050.33 2718.00 2187.00 611.82 2791.67 1119.33 934.33 363.00 577.97 716.07 756.33

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (AUG) 1359.33 GUR (JULY) POTATO (AUG) KAPAS (APR 2012) MENTHA OIL (JULY) CARDAMOM (JULY) 1058.33 428.60 761.97 1374.87 874.73

Disclaimer

Weekly Gainers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price 1079.7 395.8 990 % Change 14.11 2.51 0.71

Weekly Losers
Commodity JEERA KAPAS TURMERIC Expiry Date 20-JUL- 11 30-APR-12 20-JUL- 11 Closing Price 14345 665.9 7640 % Change -5.93 -2.69 -2.43

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Investment in Commodity has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above. The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

MENTHA OIL 30-JUL- 11 POTATO GUR 19-AUG-11 20-JUL- 11

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