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COMMODITY
Market

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Precious Metals Rally On Weak U.s. Labor Market Report

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Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Economic Data
Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Fundamental Market Overview

Market
watch GOLD SETS BIGGEST WEEKLY GAIN IN 19 MONTHS ON SOFT JOBS
the department said the economy created 44,000 fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought. The dollar dropped against several currencies as the U.S. jobs data strengthened expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve would leave interest rates low into next year, prompting investors to embrace alternate safe-haven assets like gold. Both factors were also likely to spur further gold buying. Several other factors on the week's calendar could keep a lid on gains or, depending on their results, push the yellow metal through the upper end of its 21/2-month trading band, on its way towards all-time highs. On the inflation front, China releases its producer and consumer price indexes on Saturday, and the United States reports the same next Thursday and Friday, respectively. Gold received a couple of boosts this week when the Bank of China and European Central Bank each raised key interest rates to stave off potential inflation. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before Congress in his semi-annual report. Investors will be listening carefully for any hints of further stimulus plans, though he is unlikely to reveal anything specific. Gold prices on Friday posted their biggest weekly rise since November 2009, achieved after a weak U.S. labor market report renewed fears about the health of the world's biggest economy and spurred safehaven buying. U.S. payrolls growth ground to a near halt in June, as employers hired the fewest workers in nine months, frustrating hopes that economic growth would pick up pace in the second half of the year. Spot gold rose to a two-week high of $1,545.30 an ounce, and then held around $1,543 for the rest of the session, up from $1,531.85 late in New York on Thursday. Spot gold prices remained near the highs into late trade, gaining 3.8 percent, the most since early November 2009. U.S. gold futures for August delivery extended their gains to a fresh twoweek high at $1,546, and settled $11.0 higher at $1,541.60, and added to gains in after-hours trade. The weaker-than-forecast June U.S. employment report dashed hopes that economic growth was picking up pace. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a mere 18,000, well below economists' expectations for a 90,000 rise. The unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent, its highest in six months. Adding to the weak tenor of the report,

Tue Jul 12

6:00pm 7:30pm 11:30pm

USD USD USD

Trade Balance IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism FOMC Meeting Minutes

-44.1B 45.7

-43.7B 44.6

Wed Jul 13

6:00pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 11:30pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

Import Prices m/m Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies Crude Oil Inventories Federal Budget Balance Core Retail Sales m/m PPI m/m Retail Sales m/m Unemployment Claims Core PPI m/m Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies Business Inventories m/m Natural Gas Storage

-0.7%

0.2%

-0.9M -68.0B 0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 419K 0.2% -57.6B 0.3% 0.2% -0.2% 418K 0.2%

Market
watch

U.S. CRUDE ENDS 2.5 PCT LOWER ON WEAK JOBS DATA

60 million barrels of oil reserves. The IEA said it would consider later this month whether to release more reserves. JP Morgan said in a report the timing of the IEA release threw a spotlight on tightness in global oil supply. "The main reason we can see for the precise timing of the IEA stock release was that it coincided with clear indications from tanker traffic data that OPEC output would fall short of prior pledges,".

Thu Jul 14

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

U.S. crude oil futures ended 2.5 percent lower Friday, posting their biggest one-day percentage loss in two weeks, as a disappointing jobs report stoked more worries about oil demand. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for August delivery settled at $96.20 a barrel, down $2.47, after trading between $95.60 and $99.18. The losses were not enough to erase gains for the week as oil prices continued to rebound from the four-month lows of late last month after IEA's announcement it was releasing 60 million barrels of governmentheld oil reserves from members. For the week, front-month crude rose $1.26, or 1.33 percent, from the $94.94 settlement of July 1, extending gains for a second straight week. Money managers raised their net-long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Tuesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday. TIGHT GLOBAL SUPPLY Thursday's government inventory report showed U.S. crude and refined product stocks fell last week. Oil prices have rebounded from four-month lows following the International Energy Agency's (IEA) surprise announcement on June 23 that member nations would release

0.7%

0.8% 95B

Fri Jul 15

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 7:25pm 7:25pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

Core CPI m/m CPI m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

0.2% -0.1% 4.5 77.1% 0.4% 72.5

0.3%

Market
watch

COPPER RALLY STALLS AFTER GLOOMY U.S. JOBS DATA

Investment demand for copper has been on the rise due to a confluence of bullish factors ranging from a weak U.S. dollar to mounting supply disruptions at some of the world's biggest mines to perceptions of a stronger second-half Chinese demand revival, all of which combined to outweigh Friday's overtly bearish U.S. labor market news. Money managers in COMEX copper added 13,008 lots in the week ended July 5, boosting their net long position to 21,901 lots. This marked the largest holding for the key speculator group since the week of April 17, when they held 28,030 lots. In Chile, the world's top copper mine, Escondida, halted extraction operations for a second day due to heavy rains on Friday, while workers at Codelco's top two operations, Chuquicamata and El Teniente, ratified plans to strike for 24 hours next Monday. Stocks of copper in LME-registered warehouses dipped 100 tonnes to 461,850 tonnes -- the lowest level since April 21.

-7.8 76.7% 0.1% 71.5 3.8%

Copper fell on Friday, putting the brakes on a two-week rally as a dismal set of U.S. employment data scaled back some recovery optimism. Even after Friday's near 1 percent fall, copper posted a second straight week of gains, rising 2.4 percent to extend its longest rally this year as prices bounce back from below $9,000 per tonne in June to hit their highest in three months. Copper fell alongside oil and U.S. stocks after data showed U.S. employers hired a mere 18,000 workers in June, the weakest number since September, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent, its highest this year. London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper peaked at $9,789.75 a tonne, the highest since April 12, before ending the day at $9,661, down $79 from Thursday's close. In New York, the key September COMEX contract fell 3.00 cents to settle at $4.4120 per lb, after hitting its own 3-month top at $4.4565. In after-hours trade, it held near the $4.40 level.

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Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

GOLD

SILVER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 1644 1584 1563 1524 1503 1464 1405

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Gold is in a consolidation phase. Last week COMEX Gold was sustaining at higher levels and closed near to its weekly high. In the coming week 1480 $ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold. If COMEX Gold sustains above 1510 $ an ounce then above 1560 $ an ounce it can touch the level of 1575$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1480$ then it can go slightly down and test the level of 1460$ an ounce.

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Silver is in a consolidation phase. Last week COMEX Silver was sustaining at higher levels and closed near to its weekly high. For the upcoming week 3500$ and 3300$ are the crucial supports and 3800$ and 4000$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 56000 and 58000 will act as major resistance and 52000 and 50000 will act as major supports.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3825 3736 3695 3648 3607 3559 3471

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains below 1460 $ an ounce, then above 1490$ it can test the level of 1505$ an ounce and above 1525$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1480$ and 1425$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1560$ and 1590$ Major support in MCX Gold is 21500 and 21100 Major resistance in MCX Gold is 22500 and 22800

STRATEGY
Technically COMEX Silver is weak on charts. For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy if Silver sustains below the level of 3800$ an ounce, then below 3600$ an ounce it can go down and can test the level of 3510$ an ounce. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

CRUDE

COPPER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 106.81 101.73 98.97 96.65 93.88 91.57 86.49

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil was sustaining at higher level for most part of the week. For the coming week 92.5$ and 88.5$ will act as major supports and 100$ and 104.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4400 and 4650 and major supports will be 4180 and 4060.

MARKET OVERVIEW
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was sustaining at higher level and closed near to its week high. If next week COMEX Copper does not sustains above the level of 447 then below the level of 437 Copper can test the level of 430. In MCX Copper sustains below 432 then it can test the level of 425 if it does not break the level of 439 on the upside.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 473.15 455.75 448.50 438.35 431.10 420.95 403.55

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains below the level of 98 $ a barrel then below 95.5$ it can slightly come down and touch the level of 94.5 $ a barrel and in MCX if Crude sustains below 4320 then below 4260 it can touch the level of 4210.Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 446 and 460 will act as major resistance and 425 and 415 will act as major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 440 and 450 and supports would be found at 410 and 400.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

NATURAL GAS

USD / INR

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4.921 5.574 4.389 4.227 4.042 3.880 3.533

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was down for most part of the week but on the last day it bounced up. If next week Natural Gas sustains above the level of 4.060 $ then above the level of 4.225$ Natural Gas can test the level of 4.340 $ and below 4.050 $ Natural Gas can slightly go down and test the level of 3.950 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above 182 in the coming week then it can test the level of 195, if it does not break the level of 177 on the downside.

MARKET OVERVIEW
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lower levels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.1000 then above the level of 44.4100 USD/INR can test the level of 44.5500 and below 44.0000 USD/INR can slightly go down and test the level of 43.8500.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 45.2300 44.8100 44.5900 44.3900 44.1700 43.9700 43.5500

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 43.9000 and 43.4800 will act as major supports and 45.4500 and 46.0500 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 4.050$ and 3.800$ will act as major supports and 4.730$ and 5.030$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 201 and 207, supports would be found at 177 and 170.

Weekly Chart

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Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX

5 -AUG -11 5-SEP -11 30-AUG -11 19-JUL-11 26-JUL -11 29-JUL -11 29-JUL -11 29-JUL -11 29-JUL -11

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS LEAD NICKEL ALUMINIUM

RS. / 10GM. RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS/QUINTAL RS. / BBL. RS./ MM BTU RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS. / KG.

21695 51358 425.9 4238 193.7 118.95 105.25 1037.9 111.75

21711 51400 426.75 4246 193.1 119.35 105.7 1040 111.85

22375 54960 437.8 4409 196.8 120.9 107 1080.4 114.75

21711 51130 422.55 4207 182.5 118.3 104.05 1028.7 110.5

22351 54736 433.45 4287 187.8 120.15 104.85 1064 112.4

156195 411368 509384 907538 154124 72943 80402 201936 30300

656 3378 7.55 49 -5.9 1.2 -0.4 26.1 0.65

13335 12469 28190 22342 11287 4945 4348 7043 2653

3396537.06 6563466.07 2178409.89 3893850.89 362193.09 433713.61 423773.95 528059.68 170406.27

* Turnover Till Friday

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Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Week : July 11th to 16th July 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

International Market
Commodity
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS USD/INR

Weekly Pivots
Closing Price
1541.6 3654.3 441.2 96.2 4.205 44.37

% Change
3.98 8.42 2.55 1.33 -2.46 -0.56

Scripts
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

R3
23472.67 61264.00 461.68 4704.67 217.63 124.97 111.17 1161.10 121.03

R2
22808.67 57434.00 446.43 4502.67 203.33 122.37 108.22 1109.40 116.78

R1
22578.33 56078.00 439.82 4394.33 195.57 121.23 106.48 1086.70 114.57

PP
22144.67 53604.00 431.18 4300.67 189.03 119.77 105.27 1057.70 112.53

S1
21914.33 52248.00 424.57 4192.33 181.27 118.63 103.53 1035.00 110.32

S2
21480.67 49774.00 415.93 4098.67 174.73 117.17 102.32 1006.00 108.28

S3
20816.67 45944.00 400.68 3896.67 160.43 114.57 99.37 954.30 104.03

Weekly Gainers
Commodity SILVER GOLD NICKEL Expiry Date 05 SEP-11 05 AUG-11 29 JUL-11 Closing Price 54736 22351 1064 % Change 6.58 3.02 2.52

Weekly Losers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price 187.80 104.85 % Change -3.05 -0.38

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NATURAL GAS 26 JUL-11 ZINC 29 JUL-11

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