Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Descriptive Statistics:
Term Meaning Population Formula Sample Formula Example {1,16,1,3,9}
Sort Sort values in
increasing order
{1,1,3,9,16}
Mean Average
N
X
N
i
i
n
X
n
X ... X X
X
n
i
i
n
+ + +
1 2 1
6
Median The middle value
half are below and half
are above
3
Mode The value with the
most appearances
1
Variance The average of the
squared deviations
between the values
and the mean
2
( )
N
i
i
X
N
1
2
1
( )
1
1
2
2
n
X X
s
n
i
i
(1-6)
2
+ (1-6)
2
+ (3-
6)
2
+ (9-6)
2
+ (16-6)
2
divided by 5 values =
168/5 = 33.6
Standard
Deviation
The square root of
Variance, thought of
as the average
deviation from the
mean.
2
( )
1
1
2
2
n
X X
s s
n
i
i
Square root of 33.6 =
5.7966
Coefficient
of
Variation
The variation relative
to the value of the
mean
X
s
CV
5.7966 divided by 6 =
0.9661
Minimum The minimum value 1
Maximum The maximum value 16
Range Maximum minus
Minimum
16 1 = 15
Probability Terms:
Term Meaning Notation Example* (see footnote)
Probability For any event A, probability is represented within 0 P 1. P()
0.5
Random
Experiment
A process leading to at least 2 possible outcomes with
uncertainty as to which will occur.
Rolling a dice
Event A subset of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Events A and B
Intersection of
Events
Let A and B be two events. Then the intersection of the two
events is the event that both A and B occur (logical AND).
AB
The event that a 2 appears
Union of Events The union of the two events is the event that A or B (or both)
occurs (logical OR).
AB
The event that a 1, 2, 4, 5 or 6
appears
Complement Let A be an event. The complement of A is the event that A does
not occur (logical NOT).
A
The event that an odd number
appears
Mutually
Exclusive Events
A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if at most one of the
events A and B can occur.
A and B are not mutually
exclusive because if a 2 appears,
both A and B occur
Collectively
Exhaustive
Events
A and B are said to be collectively exhaustive if at least one of
the events A or B must occur.
A and B are not collectively
exhaustive because if a 3
appears, neither A nor B occur
Basic Outcomes The simple indecomposable possible results of an experiment.
One and exactly one of these outcomes must occur. The set of
basic outcomes is mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive.
Basic outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and
6
Sample Space The totality of basic outcomes of an experiment. {1,2,3,4,5,6}
* Roll a fair die once. Let A be the event an even number appears, let B be the event a 1, 2 or 5 appears
113 Yoavi Liedersdorf (MBA03)
Statistics Cheat Sheets
Probability Rules:
If events A and B are mutually exclusive If events A and B are NOT mutually exclusive
Term
Equals
Area:
Term Equals
Venn:
P(A)=
P(A) P(A)= P(A)
P( A )=
1 - P(A) P( A )= 1 - P(A)
P(AB)=
0
P(AB)=
P(A) * P(B)
only if A and
B are
independent
P(AB)=
P(A) + P(B)
P(AB)=
P(A) + P(B)
P(AB)
P(A|B)=
[Bayes'
Law: P(A
holds given
that B
holds)]
( )
( ) B P
B A P
x X P x X E
, use the following table:
* =
Event Payoff Probability Weighted Payoff
[name of first event] [payoff of first event in $] [probability of first event 0 P 1] [product of Payoff * Probability]
[name of second event] [payoff of second event in
$]
[probability of second event
0 P 1]
[product of Payoff * Probability]
[name of third event] [payoff of third event in $] [probability of third event 0 P 1] [product of Payoff * Probability]
* See example in BOOK 1 page 54 Total (Expected Payoff): [total of all Weighted Payoffs above]
To calculate the Variance Var(X) =
( ) ( ) ( )
x X P X E x
2
and Standard Deviation ( ) ( ) X Var X , use:
- = ^2= * =
Event Payoff Expected
Payoff
Error (Error)
2
Probability Weighted (Error)
2
[1
st
event]
[1
st
payoff]
[Total from
above]
[1
st
payoff minus
Expected Payoff]
1
st
Error
squared
1
st
events
probability
1
st
(Error)
2
* 1
st
events
probability
[2
nd
event]
[2
nd
payoff]
[Total from
above]
[2
nd
payoff minus
Expected Payoff]
2
nd
Error
squared
2
nd
events
probability
2
nd
(Error)
2
* 2
nd
events
probability
[3
rd
event]
[3
rd
payoff]
[Total from
above]
[3
rd
payoff minus
Expected Payoff]
3
rd
Error
squared
3
rd
events
probability
3
rd
(Error)
2
* 3
rd
events
probability
Variance: [total of above]
Std. Deviation: [square root of Variance]
Counting Rules:
Term Meaning Formula Example
Basic Counting
Rule
The number of ways to pick x
things out of a set of n (with
no regard to order). The
probability is calculated as 1/x
of the result.
( )! x n ! x
! n
x
n
,
`
.
|
The number of ways to pick
4 specific cards out of a
deck of 52 is: 52!/((4!)
(48!)) = 270,725, and the
probability is 1/270,725 =
0.000003694
Bernoulli
Process
For a sequence of n trials, each
with an outcome of either
success or failure, each with a
probability of p to succeed
the probability to get x
successes is equal to the Basic
Counting Rule formula
(above) times p
x
(1-p)
n-x
.
( ) p , n x X P
( )
( )
x n x
p p
! x n ! x
! n
,
`
.
|
1
If an airline takes 20
reservations, and there is a
0.9 probability that each
passenger will show up,
then the probability that
exactly 16 passengers will
show is:
! !
!
4 16
20
(0.9)
16
(0.1)
4
= 0.08978
Bernoulli
Expected Value
The expected value of a
Bernoulli Process, given n
trials and p probability.
E(X) = np
In the example above, the
number of people expected
to show is: (20)(0.9) = 18
Bernoulli
Variance
The variance of a Bernoulli
Process, given n trials and p
probability.
Var(X) = np(1 - p)
In the example above, the
Bernoulli Variance is (20)
(0.9)(0.1) = 1.8
Bernoulli
Standard
Deviation
The standard deviation of a
Bernoulli Process:
(X) =
) p ( np 1
In the example above, the
Bernoulli Standard
Deviation is
8 1.
= 1.34
Linear
Transformation
Rule
If X is random and Y=aX+b,
then the following formulas
apply:
E(Y) = a*E(X) + b
Var (Y) = a
2
*Var(X)
(Y) = |a|* (X)
115 Yoavi Liedersdorf (MBA03)
Statistics Cheat Sheets
Uniform Distribution:
Term/Meaning Formula
Expected Value
X
( )
2
b a+
Variance
2
X
( )
12
2
a b
Standard Deviation X
( )
12
a b
Normal Distribution:
z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 .
000
0
.
004
0
.
008
0
.
012
0
.
016
0
.
019
9
.
023
9
.
027
9
.
031
9
.
035
9
0.1 .
039
8
.
043
8
.
047
8
.
051
7
.
055
7
.
059
6
.
063
6
.
067
5
.
071
4
.
075
3
0.2 .
079
3
.
083
2
.
087
1
.
091
0
.
094
8
.
098
7
.
102
6
.
106
4
.
110
3
.
114
1
0.3 .
117
9
.
121
7
.
125
5
.
129
3
.
133
1
.
136
8
.
140
6
.
144
3
.
148
0
.
151
7
0.4 .
155
4
.
159
1
.
162
8
.
166
4
.
170
0
.
173
6
.
177
2
.
180
8
.
184
4
.
187
9
0.5 .
191
5
.
195
0
.
198
5
.
201
9
.
205
4
.
208
8
.
212
3
.
215
7
.
219
0
.
222
4
0.6 .
225
7
.
229
1
.
232
4
.
235
7
.
238
9
.
242
2
.
245
4
.
248
6
.
251
7
.
254
9
0.7 .
258
0
.
261
1
.
264
2
.
267
3
.
270
4
.
273
4
.
276
4
.
279
4
.
282
3
.
285
2
0.8 .
288
1
.
291
0
.
293
9
.
296
7
.
299
5
.
302
3
.
305
1
.
307
8
.
310
6
.
313
3
Probability Density Function:
( )
( )
2
2
1
2
1
,
`
.
|
x
X
e x f
where 3.1416 and e 2.7183
0.9 .
315
9
.
318
6
.
321
2
.
323
8
.
326
4
.
328
9
.
331
5
.
334
0
.
336
5
.
338
9
1.0 .
341
3
.
343
8
.
346
1
.
348
5
.
350
8
.
353
1
.
355
4
.
357
7
.
359
9
.
362
1
1.1 .
364
3
.
366
5
.
368
6
.
370
8
.
372
9
.
374
9
.
377
0
.
379
0
.
381
0
.
383
0
116 Yoavi Liedersdorf (MBA03)
Statistics Cheat Sheets
1.2 .
384
9
.
386
9
.
388
8
.
390
7
.
392
5
.
394
4
.
396
2
.
398
0
.
399
7
.
401
5
1.3 .
403
2
.
404
9
.
406
6
.
408
2
.
409
9
.
411
5
.
413
1
.
414
7
.
416
2
.
417
7
Standard Deviations away from the mean:
X
Z
(Z and are swappable!)
1.4 .
419
2
.
420
7
.
422
2
.
423
6
.
425
1
.
426
5
.
427
9
.
429
2
.
430
6
.
431
9
1.5 .
433
2
.
434
5
.
435
7
.
437
0
.
438
2
.
439
4
.
440
6
.
441
8
.
442
9
.
444
1
1.6 .
445
2
.
446
3
.
447
4
.
448
4
.
449
5
.
450
5
.
451
5
.
452
5
.
453
5
.
454
5
1.7 .
455
4
.
456
4
.
457
3
.
458
2
.
459
1
.
459
9
.
460
8
.
461
6
.
462
5
.
463
3
P(a X b) = area under fX(x) between a and b:
( ) b X a P
]
]
]
,
`
.
|
,
`
.
|
b
Z
a
P
1.8 .
464
1
.
464
9
.
465
6
.
466
4
.
467
1
.
467
8
.
468
6
.
469
3
.
469
9
.
470
6
1.9 .
471
3
.
471
9
.
472
6
.
473
2
.
473
8
.
474
4
.
475
0
.
475
6
.
476
1
.
476
7
2.0 .
477
2
.
477
8
.
478
3
.
478
8
.
479
3
.
479
8
.
480
3
.
480
8
.
481
2
.
481
7
2.1 .
482
1
.
482
6
.
483
0
.
483
4
.
483
8
.
484
2
.
484
6
.
485
0
.
485
4
.
485
7
Standard Normal Table - seven usage scenarios: 2.2 .
486
1
.
486
4
.
486
8
.
487
1
.
487
5
.
487
8
.
488
1
.
488
4
.
488
7
.
489
0
=
+
=
+
2.3 .
489
3
.
489
6
.
489
8
.
490
1
.
490
4
.
490
6
.
490
9
.
491
1
.
491
3
.
491
6
2.4 .
491
8
.
492
0
.
492
2
.
492
5
.
492
7
.
492
9
.
493
1
.
493
2
.
493
4
.
493
6
=
-
=
-
2.5 .
493
8
.
494
0
.
494
1
.
494
3
.
494
5
.
494
6
.
494
8
.
494
9
.
495
1
.
495
2
2.6 .
495
3
.
495
5
.
495
6
.
495
7
.
495
9
.
496
0
.
496
1
.
496
2
.
496
3
.
496
4
=
-
=
-
2.7 .
496
5
.
496
6
.
496
7
.
496
8
.
496
9
.
497
0
.
497
1
.
497
2
.
497
3
.
497
4
2.8 .
497
4
.
497
5
.
497
6
.
497
7
.
497
7
.
497
8
.
497
9
.
497
9
.
498
0
.
498
1
117 Yoavi Liedersdorf (MBA03)
Statistics Cheat Sheets
=
+
2.9 .
498
1
.
498
2
.
498
2
.
498
3
.
498
4
.
498
4
.
498
5
.
498
5
.
498
6
.
498
6
3.0 .
498
7
.
498
7
.
498
7
.
498
8
.
498
8
.
498
9
.
498
9
.
498
9
.
499
0
.
499
0
Correlation:
If X and Y are two different sets of data, their correlation is represented by Corr(XY), rXY, or XY (rho).
If Y increases as X increases, 0 < XY < 1. If Y decreases as X increases, -1 < XY < 0.
The extremes XY = 1 and XY = -1 indicated perfect correlation info about one results in an exact prediction about the other.
If X and Y are completely uncorrelated, XY = 0.
The Covariance of X and Y, Cov(XY) , has the same sign as XY, has unusual units and is usually a means to find XY.
Term Formula Notes
Correlation
( )
( )
Y X
XY
XY
Cov
Corr
n
s
z X
2
t
Large Unknown
2
( )
n
s
t X
, n 2 1
t
Normal Small Unknown
3
p
( )
n
p p
z p
t
1
2
Binomial Large
4
Y X
n
s
z D
D
2
t
Normal Matched pairs
5
Y X
( )
Y
Y
X
X
n n
z Y X
2 2
2
+ t
/
Normal
Known ,
Independent Samples
Y X
( )
Y
Y
X
X
n
s
n
s
z Y X
2 2
2
+ t
/
Large
6
Y X
p p
( )
( ) ( )
Y
Y Y
X
X X
Y X
n
p p
n
p p
z p p
/
+
t
1 1
2
Binomial Large
Formulae Guide t-table
Large/Normal
or
Small?
Mean
or
Proportion?
Single Mean
or
Difference?
Matched
or
Independent?
Single p
or
Difference?
1
4
6
2
3
5
d. f. 0.100 0.050 0.025 0.010 0.005
1 3.078 6.314
12.70
6
31.82
1
63.65
6
2 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925
3 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841
4 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604
5 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032
6 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707
7 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499
8 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355
9 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250
10 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169
11 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106
12 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055
13 1.350 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012
14 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977
15 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947
16 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921
Confidence Level to Z-Value Guide 17 1.333 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898
Confidence Level Z
/2 (2-Tail) Z
2
2
4
96 1
e
.
n
27 1.314 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771
28 1.313 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763
Hypothesis Testing:
120 Yoavi Liedersdorf (MBA03)
Statistics Cheat Sheets
Two-tailed Lower-tail Upper-tail
Test Type Test Statistic Ha
Critical
Value
Ha
Critical
Value
Ha
Critical
Value
Single (n
30)
n
s
X
z
0
0
0
2
z t
0
<
z
0
>
z +
Single (n <
30)
n
s
X
t
0
0
0
( ) 2 , 1
t
n
t
0
<
( ) , 1
n
t
0
>
( ) , 1
+
n
t
Single p (n
30)
( )
n
p p
p p
z
0 0
0
0
1
0
p p
2
z t
0
p p<
z
0
p p>
z +
Diff. between
two s
( )
Y
Y
x
x
n
s
n
s
Y X
z
2 2
0
0
+
0
Y X
2
z t
0 <
Y X
z 0 >
Y X
z +
Diff. between
two ps
( )
( )
,
`
.
| +
Y X
Y X
Y X
n n
n n
p p
p p
z
0
0
0
Y X
p p
2
z t 0 <
Y X
p p
z 0 >
Y X
p p
z +
Classic Hypothesis Testing Procedure
Step Description Example
1 Formulate Two
Hypotheses
The hypotheses ought to be mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive. The hypothesis to be tested (the null hypothesis) always
contains an equals sign, referring to some proposed value of a
population parameter. The alternative hypothesis never contains an
equals sign, but can be either a one-sided or two-sided inequality.
H
0
: = 0
H
A
: < 0
2 Select a Test Statistic The test statistic is a standardized estimate of the difference between
our sample and some hypothesized population parameter. It answers
the question: If the null hypothesis were true, how many standard
deviations is our sample away from where we expected it to be?
n
s
X
0
3 Derive a Decision Rule The decision rule consists of regions of rejection and non-rejection,
defined by critical values of the test statistic. It is used to establish the
probable truth or falsity of the null hypothesis.
We reject H0 if
n
z X
<
0 .
4 Calculate the Value of the
Test Statistic; Invoke the
Decision Rule in light of
the Test Statistic
Either reject the null hypothesis (if the test statistic falls into the
rejection region) or do not reject the null hypothesis (if the test
statistic does not fall into the rejection region.
n
s
X
0
50
80 0
0 21 0
.
.
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 5704.0273 2852.0137 65.0391 0.0000
Estimated intercept; an estimate of
0
0
1
0.9155
R-square
(Coefficient of
Determination)
2
R
TSS
SSE
1
Dependent Variable
(estimated value for a
given vector of
independent variables)
i
Y
ki k i i i
x
... x
x
+ + + + +
3 3 2 2 1 1 0
0.9568
Multiple R
(Coefficient of
Multiple Correlation)
R
2
R
Error for observation i.
The unexplained
difference between the
actual value of Yi and
the prediction for Yi
based on our regression
model.
i
i i
Y
Y
0.9015
Adjusted R-square
2
R
,
`
.
|
,
`
.
|
1
1
1
n
SST
k n
SSE
6230.2360
Total Sum of Squares
TSS
(or SST)
( )
2
1
n
i
i
Y Y SSE SSR +
6.6220
Standard Error
(a.k.a. Standard
Error of the
Estimate)
s
1
k n
SSE
526.2087
Sum of Squares due to
Error
SSE ( )
2
1
n
i
i i
Y
Y
-2.0758
t-statistic for testing
0
1 0
: H vs.
0
1
: H
A
0
t
1
1
0
43.8507
Mean Squares due to
Error
MSE
1
k n
SSE
0.0601
p-value for testing
0
1 0
: H vs.
0
1
: H
A
p-value ( )
0
t T P >
122 Yoavi Liedersdorf (MBA03)
Statistics Cheat Sheets
5704.0273
Sum of Squares due to
Regression
SSR ( )
2
1
n
i
i
Y Y
65.0391
F
F
MSE
MSR
2852.0137
Mean Squares due to
Regression
MSR
k
SSR
2
2
1
1
R
R
k
k n
123 Yoavi Liedersdorf (MBA03)