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Sea Lion Capital Management LLC Chart Book

Volume 1, Issue 7 07/11/2011

Macro concerns rock marketsdown but not out


Prices tumbled this morning on concerns over the Euro zone debt crisis and the US debt ceiling. We have been calling for price consolidation since the rise in late June has been steep and fast. Instead of consolidation the market turned lower but remained within its primary bullish channelbarely. Instead of preparing for a new earnings season, investors and traders fretted over contagion and default driving the markets to their channel lows and threatening the current rally. Markets will need to reverse quickly tomorrow to reestablish their bullish trends or a new bearish move may be underway. The Euro is resting on support of its daily channel as well. I will post more charts and commentary on www.sealionllc.com on my technical analysis blog.

Chart #1SPY, SPDR S&P 500

Chart Notes
3. Possible lower high with shooting star candle Prices are now above the median line of the bullish channel and have found short-term resistance. Prices rally through resistance and out of the channel. A consolidation will be required before the next move up. No consolidation yet as prices are rising along channel resistance. Prices retreat to prior resistance now support for consolidation Prices testing lower channel support and need to reverse quickly to maintain the rally

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Chart Notes:
3. Possible change in trend needs confirmation with a new high. Prices are now in the upper half of the bullish channel and have more room to run. Prices have continued up and no extend beyond the channel. Prices will need to consolidate before the next leg higher. Prices rising along resistance. A return to former resistance now turned support. A mild consolidation has begun. Testing the median line. Price often finds support here.

Chart #2IWM, iShares Russell 2000

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The Russell 2000 ETF continues to outperform the S&P 500 ETF. Prices have broken down from their highs and found their channel median line. Prices often rally at their median line however IMW still has room on the downside where it can maintain its channel. In the end channel support needs to hold.

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Volume 1, Issue 7

Page 3 Chart Notes:


Markets bullish trend broken with violation of prior swing low. Markets bounces and reverses but puts in a lower high. Market retests $1.40 low and if it holds a sideways channel is in place.

Chart# 3EUR/USD, Eurodollar

Euro/Dollars channel was violated and a sideways trend appears to be in place. Channel support is current being tested in the $1.40 area. A bounce here could signal a recovery in equities.

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