Bullion Weekly Technicals

Technical Outlook

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Technical Outlook
Gold in euros trades in all-time highs and in dollars the May high is back in play

Market

Short term view (1-3 weeks)

Spot Gold:

Bullish again. Probes the 1550/1558.75 resistance area which is expected to soon give way.

Spot Gold in Euros:

Trades in new all-time highs above 1100 and targets the 1137.40 100% Fibonacci extension.

Spot Silver:

Has reached the 55 day moving average at 37.03 which acts as short term resistance.

Gold/Silver Ratio:

Continues to oscillate between the 200- and 55-day moving averages. Remains sidelined.

Palladium:

Minor reversal lower points towards a short-term correction.

Platinum:

Finds it difficult to reach the 200 day moving average at 1763.12.

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Silver versus Palladium, Platinum and Gold

Gold surges higher while other precious metals struggle and are slipping

2011 performance so far

Silver +14.69% Gold +9.14%

Platinum -3.2% Palladium -5.05%

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Spot Gold
Probes the 1550/1558.75 resistance area which is expected to soon give way
Spot Gold Daily Chart
Spot gold tests the May-to-July resistance line at 1551.62 which, together with the 1558.75 June high is likely to cap the precious metal for a day or two, however. Once surpassed, though, the May all-time high is expected to be exceeded as well. This is a change of view from our previously held outlook where we expected the May high to cap the precious metal until later in the year. Once a new all-time has been made, the psychological 1600 region and then the upper 2010-11 uptrend channel resistance line at 1624.95 will be on the map (see the weekly chart on the following page). This bullish scenario has to be seen in conjunction with the gold price being expressed in euros where a new all-time high at 1100 has been made on Monday. We will maintain our medium term bullish outlook as long as the precious metal trades above its July 1478.01 low.
Support 1521.7&1488.8 1478.01/1474.5 Resistance 1558.75 1577.60&1600 1-Week View 1-Month View Probes the 1550/1558.75 zone

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Spot Gold
Encounters resistance in the 1550/1558.75 region but this should soon be overcome
Spot Gold Weekly Chart
Nears its all-time high

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Spot Gold in Euros

Trades in new all-time highs above the 1100 level
Spot Gold in Euros Daily Chart
Spot gold in euros has made a new all-time high above the psychological 1100 level on Monday. The impulsive rally seen off the 200 day moving average at 1026.40 leads us to believe that further upside remains in the pipeline with the 1137.4 level now being in focus. This is where the 100% Fibonacci extension of the mid-2010-tolate-2010 advance, projected higher from the January 2011 low, comes in. Together with the psychological 1150 region it may well act as interim resistance, though. Further up lurks the psychological 1200 mark and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 1248.60, together with the minor psychological 1250 level. We will hold onto our medium- and long-term bullish forecasts as long as the 200 day moving average and current July low at 1027.60/1026.40 underpin.
Targets the 100% Fibonacci extension at 1137.4

Support 1082.8/1068.7 1057.6&1027.6

Resistance 1137.4/1150.0 1200&1248/50

1-Week View

1-Month View

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Spot Silver
Has reached the 55 day moving average at 37.03 which acts as short term resistance
Spot Silver Daily Chart
Spot silver recent advance has reached the 55 day moving average at 37.03 which, together with the next higher 37.58 three month resistance line, the 37.90 June 10th high and the 50% retracement of the 2011 advance at 38.17, is expected to cap the precious metal, at least temporarily. Only a daily close above the 38.92 late May high would allow us to see the May 11th 39.53 peak being revisited and for a medium-term bullish picture to emerge once more. Minor support is now seen around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011 advance at 35.40. More important support can be found along the long term uptrend line at 33.93. We will hold onto our medium-term sidelined to slightly bullish outlook as long as the 200 day moving average at 32.57 underpins.
Support 35.40&33.93 32.57/32.30 Resistance 37.03&37.58 37.90&38.17 1-Week View 1-Month View 55 day moving average caps for now

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Spot Silver
Struggles with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 36.66
Spot Silver Weekly Chart
36.66 area acts as resistance

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Gold/Silver Ratio
Continues to oscillate between the 200- and 55-day moving averages
Gold/Silver Ratio Daily Chart
The gold/silver ratio has come off the 43.54/44.91 resistance area (2006 trough and December 2006 low as well as the 200 day moving average) and got relatively close to the 55 day moving average at 41.38 before reversing higher again. It is now trading above the minor 42.50 support zone once more and remains range bound. Support below the 55 day moving average is seen at the 41.09 early June low and at the psychological 40 level. Below it sits the late May low at 39.865. While trading above it, our medium-term forecast will be sidelined, even if the short-term picture looks bullish. We will continue to view the ratio in this light as long as the 200 day moving average at 44.91 caps. If unexpectedly surpassed, this will void our long term bearish forecast.

Support 42.5&41.38/09 40.00&39.865

Resistance 43.54/44.91 45.26/45.93

1-Week View

1-Month View The 200- and 55-day moving average define trading range

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Gold/Silver Ratio
Has been repelled by the 43.54/44.91 resistance area
Gold/Silver Ratio Monthly Chart

The 43.54/45.26 resistance area caps

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Palladium
Minor reversal signal lower points towards a short-term correction
Palladium Daily Chart
Palladium has reversed lower by dropping below its Friday inside day low on Monday, meaning that the 55 day moving average at 756.92 may soon be retested. Minor support below the 55 day moving average is found along the 200 day moving average at 744.96 and more important support along the May-to-July support line at 729.41. While trading above here, our forecast will stay medium-term sidelined to slightly bullish. Should last weeks high at 788.50 be unexpectedly bettered, a continued advance towards the 799.50/804.75 resistance area (April and May highs) and the five month resistance line at 807.34 should be witnessed. Here it is expected to struggle again, though. This scenario is less likely to take place at present, however, with a continued decline being more probable.

Minor reversal is being seen

Support 756.92&744.96 729.41/721.25

Resistance 788.50&799.50 804.75/807.34

1-Week View

1-Month View

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

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Palladium
Remains longer-term sidelined
Palladium Weekly Chart

More range trading is being seen

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

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Platinum
Finds it difficult to reach the 200 day moving average at 1763.12
Platinum Daily Chart
Platinum has been trading in the vicinity of the 1760 April 2010 high (and long-term pivot) and the 200 day moving average at 1763.12 for the past week but without either of these levels being hit. We expect this resistance area to stall the recent advance for a few days more or so and see the precious metal slip back towards the 2008-11 uptrend line at 1674.98. Below it lurk the March and June lows at 1660.25/1654 which offer solid support. Below it is the 1623 November low. While trading above here, our medium-term outlook will be viewed as being neutral from now on. Should the 200 day moving average at 1763.12 be unexpectedly surpassed, the 55 day moving average at 1780.52 will be back in focus, in addition to the psychological 1800 region.
Support 1700.0&1675.0 1660.25/1654 Resistance 1760/1763.12 1780.5&1800.0 1-Week View 1-Month View 200 day moving average caps

Support sits at 1660.25/1654

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

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Platinum
Trades around the 55 week moving average at 1710.41
Platinum Weekly Chart

Support at 1660.25/1654 is key

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

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Platinum
Holds at the support line
Platinum Monthly Chart

Support line has held so far

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

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Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: Tuesday: Wednesday: Thursday: Friday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), FX Emerging Markets Technicals, Strategic Technical Themes; Daily Market Technicals (FX); Daily Market Technicals (FX), Commodity Weekly & Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals; Daily Market Technicals (FX), technical contribution to the Emerging Markets Bi-Weekly; Daily Market Technicals (FX), Fixed Income Weekly Technicals.

Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

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Karen Jones
Head of FICC Technical Analysis Tel. Mail +44 207 475 1425 karen.jones@commerzbank.com

Axel Rudolph
Senior Technical Analyst Tel. Mail +44 207 475 5721 axel.rudolph@commerzbank.com

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Axel Rudolph | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011