Global Trends in Arms Control and Disarmament: Implications for Pakistan A one day seminar, titled, Global Trends

in Arms Control and Disarmament: Implications for Pakistan was held at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad. The Seminar was inaugurated by Lt.Gen Agha Muhammad Umer Farooq, President, National Defence University, Islamabad, followed by two lively sessions, each session concluding with a very interesting question and answer session. The Director General/Chairman, Institute of Strategic Studies, Ambassador Tanvir Ahmad Khan, in his welcome address, shed light on the importance of nuclear issues, which can mean life and death for millions in a situation of conflict. He went on to explain the various trends in nuclear thinking and how it has evolved over the years and the continuing need to anticipate and prepare for the future, the implications of these global shifts. Lieutenant General Agha Muhammad Umer Farooq, President National Defence University (NDU) Islamabad, during his Inaugural address, highlighted global trends in arms control and disarmament and further elaborated on the implications, these trends have globally, regionally, and specifically on Pakistan. He said while President Obama has talked about an ambitious plan to have Zero Nuclear Weapons, the US has demonstrated double standards. The US has not ratified the CTBT and its Nuclear Review Posture (NRP), which signifies that the US will continue to rely on its nuclear potentials to pursue foreign policy objectives. Hence, he was of the opinion, it is highly unlikely that the international community would see a world free of nuclear weapons in foreseeable future, as the ongoing arms control efforts may prove counterproductive. In the national context, the Chief Guest said that Indias ABM and well-developed space program, supported by Israel, is a point of serious concern for Pakistan. In addition, he added, the Indo-US nuclear deal as well as cooperation in conventional field is likely to grow in Indias favor, thus accelerating arms race. Maintaining minimum credible nuclear deterrence would require Pakistan to review its nuclear policy. Pakistan is a responsible NWS which was not the first to initiate nuclear race in South Asia, he said, adding, while Pakistan will continue to act with

responsibility avoiding an arms race, it will not remain oblivious to the imperative of maintaining minimum credible nuclear deterrence.

The first speaker in the first session was Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder, who outlined global trends that have an impact on arms control and disarmament. He explained how the NPT came under strain, when certain developing Non Nuclear member States demanded their right to complete access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Furthermore, he also focused on the varying nature of arms control and disarmament objectives and how they fail to remain at par with global realities. Brig. (R) Feroz Hassan Khan, gave a speech on World After START: Implications for Pakistan. During his speech he outlined three main worries the world holds in regard to Pakistan, namely (1) Pakistans position on FMCT, (2) failure of dtente and rapprochement between Pakistan and India and (3) Internal societal trends in Pakistan. Elaborating on his first point, he said the nuclear security issue is well understood in the United States and it is a dead issue now. Also, later during the answer/question session, he said that there is no external threat to Pakistan but internal stability is a matter of great concern.

Brig. Naeem Salik, in his presentation, was of the view that the year 2010 was an extremely eventful year as far as arms control and disarmament are concerned. He explained the announcement of the Global Zero initiative by President Obama and the realization that this is not possible in the near future. Similarly, assurances were given to non nuclear states in this respect and allies were also assured that they would be provided deterrence. Among others, he also threw light on the relentless propaganda about Pakistans nuclear programme. Ms. Regina Galer, Political Officer/Director US

Department of Energy, US Embassy, briefly explained the US Official Position. She elaborated on the START treaty, concluded with Russia, and said that the US was looking forward to working with its partners on arms control and disarmament.

Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, in his presentation, titled, CD Agenda in 2011: Critical Appraisal lay emphasis on the various aspects of Conference on Disarmament agenda and how it has evolved over time. He pointed out the positive developments, including President Obamas speech at Prague on April 5, 2009 and among others, the new START treaty. While explaining the negative developments, he said the United States and its allies have been developing Missile Defense Systems and have stressed upon rebuilding Americas aging nuclear infrastructure. Ambassador (R) Tariq Fatemi chaired the second session of the event that covered energy resources with special reference to Pakistan. The speakers for the session included Ms. Sannia Abdullah, Lecturer, DSS Department at the Quaid-e-Azam University, and Mr. Malik Qasim Mustafa and Ms. Saira Abbasi, both Research Fellows at the Institute of Strategic Studies. Mr. Mustafa began the session with his presentation on Nuclear Energy: Prospects for Pakistan, where he gave a detailed statistical account of the current status of resources, and their prospective paths in the coming decades. He asserted that Pakistan sees a growing demand for energy even as reserves are declining and prices rising in a situation that could lead to major energy conflicts. Nuclear energy provides a clean and efficient source that could greatly mitigate current concerns. Mr. Mustafa noted that Pakistan currently has two nuclear reactors while several more are planned, and it is not surprising that this level of interest has been given to this source of energy as the country plans to use nuclear power to produce 8800MW of electricity by 2030. In the present times, while economic and technological constraints are limiting energy resource use, Pakistan ranks highest among South Asian countries in the Energy Development Index of 2010. Making use of the potential that nuclear power, a path that Pakistan has taken already, also requires international cooperation and the need to address the political and economic constraints that hinder progress on this front. The second speaker, Ms. Sannia Abdullah then presented her paper on Energy the coal story, discussing a topic that is not understood very well in Pakistan. She noted that the country is in the midst of several crises, including energy, and the immense coal reserves including but not limited to Thar, could provide numerous benefits if the potential is availed. She pointed out

that 185 billion tons of coal reserves are spread all over the country, and with a large percentage suitable for gasification or belonging to the

proven/measured category, they provide an effective method to reduce the costs incurred on oil imports. In addition, making use of this natural reserve will allow employment generation for over 200,000 people. Compared to other alternative sources of energy such as hydro, wind and solar, Ms. Abdullah noted that using coal reserves will be sustainable in the long run. This necessitates technological progress, where there are high chances of Chinese and American assistance while Pakistan too has the capacity to lead the process. Pakistan loses over a billion dollars each year due to electricity shortage. Natural reserves of coal, if used effectively, will not only play a huge role in economic revival but also prove a reliant source of sustainable energy that lasts throughout the year. Ms. Saira Abbasi then presented her paper on Alternative sources of energy for Pakistan solar and wind in what was the final presentation of the day. She discussed Pakistans existing energy situation, pointing out economic and technological constraints and a large gap between demand and supply, factors that necessitate a paradigm shift from traditional to other sources of energy. Being largely untapped, wind and solar power, she indicated, are suitable alternatives that need to be made use of since the country is seeing an electricity shortage that reportedly lies between 4000.MW and 6000 MW and is causing severe socioeconomic and livelihoods issues. Using alternative renewable sources of energy such as wind and power will provide two-fold benefits in that they will ensure energy and economic needs are fulfilled and also play their part in environmental sustainability. As far as solar power is concerned, Ms. Abbasi noted that while expensive investment initially, it does not require continual expenditure and is suitable for Pakistan due to its user and environment-friendly factors and the countrys sunny weather. Moreover, it is a suitable source of energy for the thousands of villages all over the country where energy needs are low and they are far away from the national grid, where connecting them through transmission lines would be unfeasible. Similarly, she noted that wind power also offered much potential specially in Sindh and Balochistan and is a source that has not been utilized so far. Despite their uses, she concluded, Pakistan requires a holistic approach to

solving its energy needs as no single solution is enough for a sustainable future.