Is

the Common Mwananchi bene4ng from EAC integra:on? (a socio-economic perspec:ve)

By Aidan Eyakuze Society for Interna5onal Development www.sidint.net

The analogy of stocks and ows

EACs Stocks
Land, resources, people & talent, trust & goodwill

EACs Flows
Money, goods, rela:onships, informa:on, ideas, energy, innova:on.

Flows transform the stocks, increasing (or destroying) their value to individuals, to society and to the planet

Lake Victoria stock and ows

OuClow Flow Flow

STOCK
Flow

Flow Flow Flow

EAC Regional Integra:on

Process of facilita:ng, energizing and catalyzing the ow of goods, services, money, people, ideas, all of which contain transforma:ve energy for good (and ill). In the decade since the EAC Treaty was signed:
What have been the trends of some of these ows? Have they beneVed the common mwananchi?

East Africas natural borders

White Nile

Lingala line

A region of peoples

Indian Ocean

Swahili line

East Africas economy

THE EAC 5
GDP: $74.5 billion (2009 est.) Land area: 1.82 million km2 Pop (est). 133.5 million Per capita GDP: $542

CROATIA GDP: $69.33 billion Land area: 56,414 km2 Popula:on: 4.48 million Per capita GDP: $15,700

BANK OF AMERICA Market cap: $71 billion (Dec 08) Shareholder popula5on: 1,842 ins5tu5ons (6.3 bn shares), 3,423 mutual funds (2.8 bn shares), 80 insiders (35 million shares)

More trade is owing

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Exports/GDP Imports/GDP 1980s 1990s 2000-04 2005

Source: Dynamics of Equity in Trade, Educa8on and Media, SID 2011

and (increasingly) more equitably

Intra-regional trade has Ugandas share of intra-EAC grown by 49% since start of exports has risen from 13% EA Customs Union in 2005 in 2005 to 20% in 2008; Kenyas dominant posi:on Tanzanias 54% increase in as exporter is being exports to Kenya between challenged. Its share of 2005 & 2008 ($94m intra-EAC exports fell from $250m+) 80% in the 1980s and 1990s to 61% by 2008;

Investment is owing

even Nigeria is inves:ng in EA.

Nigerian investor injects new life into Bankom's opera:on (October 25, 2010)
As a result of the partnership, InterSwitch Ltd of Nigeria will own a 60 per cent stake of the frim (sic).

..because the returns in EA are so juicy!

Nigeria's Dangote ups stake in S.Africa cement rm (June 4, 2010) Dangote has invested in Ghana's 1.2 million tonnes per year Tema Cement Factory, and other plants in Senegal, Zambia, Tanzania, Democra5c Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Ethiopia.Cement demand in East Africa is expected to rise by 33% next year, with construc;on listed as a major driver of economies in the region.
Return on Equity (2009) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

More connec:ons!
Airline launches Dar-Mwanza Footloose and bus-loving East Africanistas have spawned what is route - Monday, 17 January 2011 probably the largest and most ecient cross-border transport system in Africa. There are dozens of buses crossing the Uganda- Rwanda, Kenya-Tanzania and Tanzania-Uganda borders every day. At the end of school terms, these numbers swell to over 30 a day. Charles Onyango-Obbo, SID 2007

More conversa:ons are owing

NEW SWAHILI PAPER LAUNCHED IN MOMBASA March 2011

Dubbed as the best-selling Swahili publica5on in Tanzania with over 50,000 copies sold, the newspaper is published by Mwananchi Communica5ons Limited a subsidiary of Na5on Media Group, which hopes to replicate the same or more numbers in Kenya as in Tanzania
Source: hVp://www.na:onmedia.com/newsleVer/newsleVer.html

Learning & teaching are owing

Uganda plots to reap from educa5on export - 26th January, 2011 The country currently has 28 universi:es, 22 of which are privately-run...The number of foreign students has risen from a few hundreds in the early 1990s to 6,000 by 2008 Export of educa5on yielded $32m in 2004/5 or about 25% of earnings from coee... UEPBs decision to involve heads of local ins:tutes could ul:mately realise addi:onal 6,000 students or $60m in the next few years from higher educa:on.

Labour is owingto DRC too!

Des Rwandais cul5vent pour des Congolais - Friday, 04 March 2011 (RNA) Rusizi: Des milliers de Rwandais de Bugarama vont chaque ma:n au Sud Kivu pour travailler dans les champs des Congolais ou dans ceux qu'ils leur ont lous. Le travail y est abondant et le prix pay sa:sfaisant.

Conclusion
The prosecu:on of the regional integra:on project has been driven by a fundamental mo:ve of improving the welfare of East Africans (see Ar:cle 7a of the Treaty) The greatest benet of regional integra:on is the expansion of the opportunity set for East African ci5zens to exploit easier ows, more connec:ons, a larger playing eld. Integra:on is making it easier for East Africas wananchi to travel, to trade, to talk, to teach (and learn) Whether, and how we choose to take advantage of these opportuni:es is en:rely up to us.

White Nile

Lingala line

The Peoples Region

Indian Ocean

Swahili line