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Sesa Goa
Performance Highlights
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) (12.6) (21.5) (616)bp (35.4) 4QFY11 3,624 2,118 58.5 1,462 % chg (qoq) (41.8) (45.9) (413)bp (42.5)
`278 `335
12 months
Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Sesa Goa's 1QFY2012 net sales fell by 12.6% yoy to `2,109cr, lower than our estimate of `2,378cr on account of lower-than-expected iron ore sales volumes. Net profit at `841cr was also above our estimate of `1,075cr. Lower sales volume impacts 1QFY2012 performance: During the quarter, iron ore sales volume declined by 12.2% to 4.3mn tonnes on dry metric tonnes (dmt) basis due to logistics constraints in Goa and termination of third-party mining in Orissa. However, iron ore realisation increased by 3.4% yoy to US$99/tonne on dmt basis. Thus, lower sales volume resulted in net revenue declining by 12.6% yoy to `2,109cr. Export duty for 1QFY2012 increased by 170.7% yoy to `345cr, which led to a 616bp contraction in EBITDA margin. As a result, EBITDA declined by 21.5% yoy to `1,146cr. Further, other income fell by 5.5% yoy to `152cr and tax rate was higher at 31.2% in 1QFY2012 vs. 17.8% in 1QFY2011. This led to a decline of 35.4% yoy in the bottom line to `841cr. Outlook and valuation: We expect Sesa Goas iron ore sales volume to increase by 9.0% yoy in FY2012 and 10.0% yoy in FY2013 mainly on account of higher sales volumes from its Karnataka mines. Further, we expect international iron ore prices to remain firm in the medium term, as we expect additional meaningful supplies to hit the sea-borne market only from CY2013. We believe the current stock price discounts negatives such as acquisition of minority stake in unrelated oil business via acquisition of Cairn Indias stake, increased export duty and railway freight and decreased volumes from Goa mines. We value Sesa Goa at 3.0x FY2013 EV/EBITDA multiple and lower our target price to `335 (`385) per share. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg FDEPS (`) OPM (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 55.1 4.7 24.4 15.8
3m (5.9)
1yr 2.6
3yr 33.1
FY2010 5,858 18.1 2,629 32.2 29.6 53.7 9.4 2.9 41.6 41.7 2.6 4.8
FY2011 9,205 57.1 4,222 60.6 47.5 56.5 5.9 1.9 40.7 42.9 0.8 1.4
FY2012E 10,675 16.0 3,625 (14.2) 40.7 46.9 6.8 1.5 25.2 30.6 1.5 3.2
FY2013E 12,172 14.0 4,050 11.7 45.5 46.6 6.1 1.3 22.8 27.9 1.1 2.3 Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821 Bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Pooja Jain
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6839 E-mail: pooja.j@angeltrade.com
1QFY12 2,109 76 3.6 91 4.3 55 2.6 345 16.4 404 19.2 963 45.7 1,146 54.3 49 27 152 0 1,222 57.9 381 31.2 841 39.9
1QFY11 2,413 93 3.9 74 3.1 44 1.8 128 5.3 623 25.8 953 39.5 1,460 60.5 14 19 161 0 1,588 65.8 283 17.8 1,302 53.9
yoy (%) (12.6) (19.1) 23.8 22.7 170.7 (35.1) 1.0 (21.5) 258.7 40.5 (5.5) (23.1) 34.6 (35.4)
FY2011 FY2010 9,205 858 9.3 296 3.2 207 2.2 662 7.2 1,979 21.5 4,002 43.5 5,203 56.5 55 96 557 (49) 5,559 60.4 1,337 24.1 4,222 45.9 3,445 58.8 806 23.4 2,629 44.9 5,858 534 9.1 244 4.2 130 2.2 148 2.5 1,654 28.2 2,709 46.3 3,149 53.7 52 75 426
yoy (%) 57.1 60.6 21.6 59.5 348.6 19.6 47.7 65.2 6.9 29.3 30.8 61.4 66.0 60.6
120 100
5 4 3 2 1 0 1QFY10 3QFY10 1QFY11 3QFY11 1QFY12 Sales Volume (LHS) Average realization (RHS)
(US $/tonne)
60 50 40
(%)
40 30 20 10 0
800 600 400 200 0 1QFY10 3QFY10 Net profit (LHS) 1QFY11 3QFY11 1QFY12 Net profit margin (LHS)
30 20 10 0
Outlook
Crude steel consumption in China is expected to rise
According to China Iron and Steel Association data, Chinas steel production in CY2011 is expected to increase by 6.0% yoy over the coming five years. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences expects Chinese crude steel production to reach 674mn tonnes (+7.5% yoy) in CY2011.
(US $/tonne)
(mn tonnes)
80 60 40 20 0 Jul-06
(%)
Dec-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Oct-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
May-11
China iron ore fines CFR 63.5% Fe China Iron ore fines CFR 58% Fe
Jan-11
Jun-11
(mn tonnes)
20 10 0
Dec-10
Aug-10
Apr-11
Nov-10
Mar-11
Oct-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
May-11
Iron ore imports by China from India Iron ore imports by China from Australia Iron ore imports by China from Brazil
Jan-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
(mn tonnes)
Valuation
We expect Sesa Goas iron ore sales volume to increase by 9.0% yoy in FY2012 and 10.0% yoy in FY2013 mainly on account of higher production and sales from its Karnataka mines. Further, we expect international iron ore prices to remain firm in the medium term, as we expect additional meaningful supplies to hit the sea-borne market only from CY2013. The recent closure of several iron ore mines in Karnataka has resulted in shortage of iron ore supplies in the region. This is expected to lift domestic prices of iron ore in Karnataka, thus benefitting Sesa Goa. We believe the current stock price discounts negatives such as acquisition of minority stake in unrelated oil business via acquisition of Cairn Indias stake, increased export duty and railway freight and decreased volumes from Goa mines. We value Sesa Goa at 3.0x FY2013 EV/EBITDA multiple and lower our target price to `335 (`385) per share. Thus, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
We have lowered our sales volumes estimates for FY2012E and FY2013E, considering lower-than-expected sales volume from Goa mines in 1QFY2012 and managements guidance. Hence, our profitability estimates are also reduced for FY2012E and FY2013E.
Earlier estimates FY12E 11,147 5,232 46.9 5,204 3,861 34.6 FY13E 12,453 5,813 46.7 5,780 4,220 33.9
Revised estimates FY12E 10,675 5,001 46.9 5,105 3,625 34.0 FY13E 12,172 5,676 46.6 5,785 4,050 33.3
Upgrade/(downgrade) (%) FY12E (4.2) (4.4) (9)bp (1.9) (6.1) (68)bp FY13E (2.3) (2.4) (6)bp 0.1 (4.0) (62)bp
Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus (%) (%) 40.7 47.5 45.5 50.0
(` cr)
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 (5,000) Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11
(`)
6.0x 3.0x
Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
4.0x
500 400 300 200 100 0 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11
10
11
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book value DuPont analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (post-tax) Cost of debt Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC (pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset T/o (gross block) Inventory (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC capital (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA (0.7) (0.9) (1.3) (2.5) (1.2) (3.0) (1.4) (3.4) (0.5) (1.7) (0.6) (2.1) 5.1 234 35 102 53 6.0 213 28 170 33 3.2 261 20 351 12 3.2 265 20 403 7 2.9 270 24 250 16 2.6 270 24 250 22 96.2 264.5 68.0 63.9 198.5 51.9 41.7 136.3 41.6 42.9 160.3 40.7 30.6 43.3 25.2 27.9 28.3 22.8 58.9 66.6 4.4 172.0 172.0 50.2 73.6 3.8 142.2 142.2 52.5 76.6 2.5 101.6 101.6 55.5 75.9 2.6 108.1 108.1 45.6 71.0 0.9 29.2 29.2 45.4 70.0 0.6 19.5 19.5 19.7 19.7 20.3 2.3 37.4 25.3 25.3 25.9 2.3 59.9 31.6 29.6 32.5 3.3 95.3 49.1 47.5 48.5 5.0 144.0 40.7 40.7 42.2 5.0 179.7 45.5 45.5 47.2 5.0 220.2 14.1 13.7 7.4 0.8 5.2 8.6 6.5 11.0 10.7 4.6 0.8 3.1 6.1 3.2 9.4 8.5 2.9 1.2 2.6 4.8 1.5 5.9 5.7 1.9 1.8 0.8 1.4 0.5 6.8 6.6 1.5 1.8 1.5 3.2 0.9 6.1 5.9 1.3 1.8 1.1 2.3 0.6 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sesa Goa No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
13