Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Topics
1. Oil Reserved,
Oil Price History,
Population in Key Oil production countries in Middle East.
3. Others…
Proved oil reserves at end 2003
Crude oil prices since 1861
Gb
Population of Key Oil Exporting Countries: Saudi Arabia
Production
Discovery
Saudi Arabia
10000 120
100
8000
80
6000
60
4000
40
2000
20
0 0
1930195019701990201020302050
20,000
15,000 6.1 times the population
10,000
5,000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010
Year
kb/
(
Population of Key Oil Exporting Countries: Iran
Gb
Production
Discovery
Iran
7000 30
6000 25
5000
20
4000
15
3000
10
2000
1000 5
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Iran Population
Population Growth 1950-2002:
80,000 1950: 16,357,000
Population in Thousands
70,000
60,000
2002: 67,538,000
50,000
40,000
4.1 times the population
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010
Year
G
(shaded)
Production
Population of Key Oil Exporting Countries: Iraq
Discovery
Iraq
Peace Scenario
kb/d
5000 30
25
4000
20
3000
Gb
15
2000
10
Production
1000
5
Discovery
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Iraq
War Scenario
5000 30
4500
25
4000
3500
20
3000
2500 15
2000
10
1500
1000
5
500
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Iraq Population
Population Growth 1950-2002:
35000
1950: 5,163,000
30000
2002: 24,004,000
Population in Thousand
25000
20000
15000
10000
4.6 times the population
5000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010
Year
kb/
(
Population of Key Oil Exporting Countries: Kuwait
Gb
Production
Discovery
Kuwait
3000 70
2500 60
50
2000
40
1500
30
1000
20
500 10
0 0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Kuwait Population
Population Growth 1950-2002:
Population in Thousands
1500
14.6 times the population
1000
500
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010
Year
Question
Since the starting of the crude oil production, the population of the key Oil Exporting Countries in
Middle East been increased many times…
Most of those countries rely mainly on Crude Oil export and oil related industries (such as petrol
chemical, fertilizer, plastic, etc).
Unless the Oil price increase proportional to the population growth… It means those people live
in those countries is getting poorer (per person).!
And, since, they should know their oil field is going to run dry one day, should they sell it cheaper
when there is no huge oil reserve discovery in these few decades?
A Saudi saying,
"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
This is what the Investment Broker Tell You – 20 reasons why Oil price went up…
100%
Venezuela, 2%
Russia, 3%
90% Funds Buying, 4%
Nigeria, 5%
80% Refinery fires, 5%
Terrorism, 6%
70% Gasoline, 6%
Weather, 7%
60%
50% Iraq, 16%
1
Further Breakdown as Supply vs Demand
Supply Demand
Year in Review - Price Fluctuations
40
No change in OPEC output US gasoline demand
despite new quota tops out
35
Iraq exports disrupted
daily (0.3mbd)
30
The price
lowest now….as
US crude stocks
since 1975 25 Oct 2004
Producers say prices
"beyond their control"
25
China demand forecast OPEC basket beats target range Hurricane Ivan
to surge 9% in 2004 for 18 straight weeks (1mbd)
20
Surprise OPEC quota cut
(0.9mbd eff Nov 1)
15
2-Sep-03 2-Dec-03 2-Mar-04 2-Jun-04 2-Sep-04
This is what You don’t find in the main stream news
Others… Any Business Impact???