Probability and Statistics Notes for Chapter 7: Hypothesis Testing with One Sample Section 7.

1: Introduction to Hypothesis Testing Hypothesis Test: a process that tests a claim about the value of a population parameter. Statistical hypothesis: a claim about a population parameter. To test a statistical hypothesis, a pair of hypotheses must be stated: one that represents the claim and the other is its complement. Of these two hypotheses, the one that contains a statement of equality is the null hypothesis. The complement of the null hypothesis is an alternative hypothesis. Either hypothesis- the null or the alternative may represent the original claim. Null Hypothesis: H0 is a statistical hypothesis test that contains a statement of equality, such as , = , . Alternative hypothesis: Ha is the complement of the null hypothesis. It is a statement that contains a statement of inequality, such as <, , >. History: Ronald Fisher (1890-1962) was the first to identify the null and alternative hypothesis. No matter, which hypothesis represents the claim, you always begin a hypothesis test by assuming that the equality condition in the null hypothesis is true. So, when you perform a hypothesis test, you make one of two decisions. 1. reject the null hypothesis or 2. fail to reject the null hypothesis. > Is greater than Is above Is higher than Is longer than Is bigger than Is increased Is less than or equal to Is at most Is not more than Hypothesis-Testing Common Phrases: <

Is less than Is great than or equal to Is below It at least Is lower than Is not less than Is shorter than Is smaller than Is decreased or reduced from = Is Is equal to Is exactly the same as Has not changed from Is the same as Is not equal to Is different from Has changed from Is not the same as

Making mistakes in the Justice System: If someone is arrested, they are innocent until proven guilty. How do some criminals get to go free on technicalities? There are errors. The alternative hypothesis- the reason a criminal is arrested. The null hypothesis- presumption of innocence. Reasonable Doubt- null hypothesis has to be reject beyond reasonable doubt, standard is often set at 5%- called the alpha level. Therefore, the legal justice system and statisticians try to disprove or reject the null hypothesis instead of proving the alternative. Type I error: reject H0 , when it is actually true, false negative- test says you do not have the disease, when you really do. There is enough evidence to support the claim. Example: innocent person goes to jail when they are not guilty (travesty). Type II error: do not reject H0 , when it is actually false, false positive- test says you do have the disease, when you really dont. There is not enough evidence to reject the claim. Example: guilty person does not go to jail- OJ Simpson or Michael Jackson case. Decision Do not reject H0 Reject H0 Not guilty verdict Guilty verdict 4 possible outcomes of a hypothesis test: H0 is true H0 is false 1. Correct decision 3. Type I error Defendant is not guilty. 1. Justice 3. Type I error 2. Type II error 4. Correct decision Defendant is guilty. 2. Type II error-OJ Simpson 4. Justice

This is sometimes compared to the legal system. The defendant is assumed innocent H0 until proven guilty. If the evidence is not strong enough, there is no conviction. A not guilty verdict does not prove that a defendant is innocent. The legal system assumes more harm is done by convicting the innocent (type I error) than by not convicting the guilty (type II error). Because there is variation from sample to sample, there is always a possibility you will reject a null hypothesis when it is actually true. You can decrease the probability of doing so by lowering the level of significance. In a hypothesis test level of significance is your maximum allowable probability of making a type I error. It is denoted by , the lowercase Greek letter alpha. The probability of a type II error is denoted by , the lowercase Greek letter beta. One-tailed test: indicates that the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value is in the critical region on one side of the mean. A one-tailed test is either right-tailed or left-tailed, depending on the direction of the inequality of the alternative hypothesis.

Two-tailed test: the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value is in either of the two critical regions. Look at the alternative hypothesis to determine which type of test to use. Left-Tailed Test Right-Tailed Test Two-Tailed Test H0: k H0: k H0: = k Ha: < k Ha: > k Ha: k Solving Hypothesis-Testing Problems (traditional method): 1. State the hypotheses and identify the claim. 2. Find the critical value(s) from table 4, in the back of your textbook. 3. Compute the test value. 4. Make the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis. 5. Summarize the results. 7.2 Hypothesis Testing for the Mean (Large Samples) P-value (probability value): is the probability of getting a sample statistic (such as the mean) or a more extreme sample statistic in the direction of the alternative hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true. P is the area to the left or right of z. To use a P-value to make a conclusion in a hypothesis test, compare the P-value to . 1. If P , then reject H0 = there is enough evidence , then fail to reject H0 2. If P > = there is not enough evidence to Is the P-value less than or equal to the level of significance? Yes- Reject the null hypothesis No- Fail to reject the null hypothesis If a P-value is less than 0.01, the null hypothesis will be rejected at the common levels of = 0.01, = 0.05, = 0.10. If the P-value is greater than 0.10, then you would fail to reject H0 for these common levels. The lower the P-value, the more evidence there is in favor of rejecting H0 . The P-value gives you the lowest level of significance for which the sample statistic allows you to reject the null hypothesis. Finding the P-Value for a hypothesis Test: When given z value and alpha level: a. For a left-tailed test, P = Area in the left tail b. For a right-tailed test, P=1-p c. For a two-tailed test z positive, P = 2(1 - p): Find area, 1 - area, then multiply by 2 d. For a two-tailed test z negative, P = 2 p: Find area, then multiply by 2 z-test: is a statistical test for a population mean. The z-test can be used when the population is normal and is known, or for any population when the sample size n is at least 30. The test statistic is the sample mean x and the standardized test statistic is z.

If n 30, the textbook uses s is used for sample standard deviation. Calculator: Hypothesis Test for the z Distribution (Statistics) For finding z and p values, when given the following information: STAT, TESTS, 1, STAT, ENTER, type values for 0, , x,n , move cursor to appropriate alternative hypothesis, ENTER, CALCULATE, ENTER Solving Hypothesis-Testing Problems (P-Value Method): 1. State the hypothesis and identify the claim. 2. Compute the test value ( z0 ). 3. Find the P-value (area). 4. Make the decision. Reject of fail to reject the null hypothesis. 5. Summarize the results. Write a statement to interpret the decision in context of the original claim. Rejection region (critical region): range of values for which the null hypothesis is not probable. If a test statistic falls in this region, the null hypothesis is rejected. Critical value (z) separates the rejection region from the nonrejection region. Finding Critical Values, z0 : If given alpha and type of test: Use Table 4 in the back of the textbook, if you cannot find the exact area, use the area that is closest. Right-tailed test: + answer Left-tailed test: - answer 1 Two-tailed test: (take half of alpha), find the value and your answer will have 2 Commonly Used Levels of Significance Alpha, Tail z Left -1.28 0.10 Right 1.28 1.645 Two 0.05 Left Right Two -1.645 1.645 1.96

0.01

Left -2.33 Right 2.33 2.575 Two will never equal 0, because no z-values correspond to = 0. If = 0, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected and hypothesis test is useless. *We are skipping Section 7.3- Hypothesis Testing for the Mean (Small Samples) Section 7.4: Hypothesis Test for Proportion

Given a binomial distribution such that np 5 and nq 5, you can use the z-test to test a proportion p. The test statistic is the sample proportion p and the standardized test statistic is z. Calculator: Hypothesis Test for the Proportion: STAT, TESTS, 5, type in appropriate values for p0, x,n , move cursor to the appropriate values for alternative hypothesis, ENTER, CALCUALTE, ENTER Using a z-test for a proportion p: 1. State the claim mathematically and verbally. Identify the null and alternative hypothesis. 2. Specify the level of significance. 3. Determine any critical values. 4. Determine any rejection regions. 5. Find the standardized test statistic, z, calculator or chart. 6. Make a decision to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. 7. Interpret the decision in the context of the original claim.