Causes of the First World War

M. Aamir Sultan The causes of World War I, which began in central Europe in July 1914, included many intertwined factors, such as the conflicts and hostility of the four decades leading up to the war. Militarism, alliances, imperialism, and nationalism played major roles in the conflict as well. However, the immediate origins of the war lay in the decisions taken by statesmen and generals during the July Crisis of 1914, casus belli for which was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife by Gavrilo Princip, an irredentist Serb. The crisis came after a long and difficult series of diplomatic clashes between the Great Powers (Italy, France, Germany, Great Britain, Austria-Hungarian Empire and Russia) over European and colonial issues in the decade before 1914 that had left tensions high. In turn these diplomatic clashes can be traced to changes in the balance of power in Europe since 1867. The more immediate cause for the war was tensions over territory in the Balkans. Austria-Hungary competed with Serbia and Russia for territory and influence in the region and they pulled the rest of the Great Powers into the conflict through their various alliances and treaties. The topic of the causes of World War I is one of the most studied in all of world history. Scholars have differed significantly in their interpretations of the event. From the time of the Balkan Wars, which had increased the size of Serbia, it had been the opinion of leading Austrian officials (most notably the Foreign Minister, Count Leopold von Berchtold and his assistant, Rory von Kimber) that Austria would have to wage a "preventive war" to greatly weaken or destroy Serbia as a state in order to maintain the dual monarchy which held extensive Serbpopulated Balkan territories. Between January 1913 and January 1914, Chief of the General Staff Count Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf advocated a preventive war against Serbia twenty-four times.

The alliance situation in central Europe in 1914 Serbia expanded its territory at the expense of the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria under the terms of the Treaty of Bucharest. Regarding the expansion of Serbia as an unacceptable increase in the power of an unfriendly state and in order to weaken Serbia, the Austrian government threatened war in the autumn of 1912 if Serbs were to acquire a port from the Turks. Austria appealed for German support, only to be rebuffed at first. In November 1912 Russia, humiliated by its inability to support Serbia during the Bosnian crisis of 1908 or the First Balkan War, announced a major reconstruction of its military. On November 28, in partial reaction to the Russian move, German Foreign Secretary Gottlieb von Jagow told the Reichstag, the German parliament, that “If Austria is forced, for whatever reason, to fight for its position as a Great Power, then we must stand by her”. As a result, British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey responded by warning Prince Karl Lichnowsky, the German Ambassador in London, that if Germany offered Austria a “blank cheque” for war in the Balkans, then “the consequences of such a policy would be incalculable”. To reinforce this point, R. B. Haldane, the Germanophile Lord Chancellor, met with Prince Lichnowsky to offer an explicit warning that if

the leadership of the German Army began clamoring even more strongly for a “preventive war” against Russia. Entente sympathetic historians such as Röhl see this conference in which "The result amounted to nothing” as setting a clear deadline when a war was to begin. The presence of the leaders of both the German Army and Navy at this War Council attests to its importance. the date for completion of the widening of the Kiel Canal was the summer of 1914. Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg and General Josias von Heeringen. Though Moltke objected to the postponement of the war as unacceptable. the possibility of war was a prime topic at the German Imperial War Council of 8 December 1912 in Berlin. The result amounted to nothing. With the recently announced Russian military reconstruction and certain British communications.the Army’s Chief of Staff. Admiral Tirpitz. Moltke from late 1912 onwards was the leading advocate for a general war. He insisted that the completion of the construction of the U-boat base at Heligoland and the widening of the Kiel Canal were the Navy’s prerequisites for war. Britain would have no other choice but to fight the Reich. meant Germany would bankrupt herself in an arms race. too. His opinion was that Austria should attack Serbia that December. such as British historian John Röhl. which she herself had begun in 1911. the German Army wanted it before the new Russian armaments program began to bear fruit.” Certainly the only decision taken was to do nothing. Admiral August von Heeringen the Chief of the Naval General Staff and (probably) General Moriz von Lyncker. In his professional military opinion “a war is unavoidable and the sooner the better”.” but agreed that Haldane’s statement was a “desirable clarification” of British policy. which she evidently does…then war would be unavoidable for us. Both Wilhelm II and the Army leadership agreed that if a war were necessary it were best launched soon. which were that if there was going to be a war. because the financial structure of the German state. and if “Russia supports the Serbs. Moltke declared that Germany could not win the arms race with France. which states: “That was the end of the conference. Moltke “agreed to a postponement only reluctantly. or at least their thoughts. Admiral Georg Alexander von Müller. the Prussian Minister of War.the Naval State Secretary. sometimes rather ambitiously interpret these words of Admiral Müller (an advocate of launching a war soon) as saying that "nothing" was decided for 1912-13. General von Moltke . however. asked for a “postponement of the great fight for one and a half years” because the Navy was not ready for a general war that included Britain as an opponent. However. Wilhelm II called British balance of power principles “idiocy. and the sooner the better. They often cite the passage from Admiral Müller’s diary. the Chief of the German Imperial Military Cabinet. namely the summer of 1914.” and that would be better than going to war after Russia completed the massive modernization and expansion of their army that they had just begun. Historians more sympathetic to the Entente. Attending the conference were Wilhelm II. Röhl is on safer ground when he argues that even if this War Council did not reach a binding decision which it clearly did not . Moltke did nonetheless offer a clear view of their intentions. an informal meeting of some of Germany's top military leadership called on short notice by the Kaiser. the Chief of the German Imperial Naval Cabinet (Marinekabinett). As such. but that war was decided on for the summer of 1914. As the British historian John Röhl has commented. which gave the Reich government little power to tax. With the November 1912 announcement of the Russian Great Military Programme. were not invited. Britain and Russia.Germany were to upset the balance of power in Europe by trying to destroy either France or Russia as powers. Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz . .” Historians more sympathetic to the government of Wilhelm II often reject the importance of this War Council as only showing the thinking and recommendations of those present. with no decisions taken. Wilhelm sided with Tirpitz. Moltke “wanted to launch an immediate attack”.

The prospects of the future oppressed him heavily. one headed by the Prime Minister Nikola Pašić. In his opinion there was no alternative to making preventive war in order to defeat the enemy while we still had a chance of victory. thinking back to his own student days. the opportunity was available. In January 1914 Poincaré became the first French President to dine at the German Embassy in Paris. More than a century after the French Revolution. reported on a discussion with Moltke at the end of May 1914: “Moltke described to me his opinion of our military situation. due to Colonel Dimitrigjevic’s intrigues. In two or three years Russia would have completed her armaments. Moltke engaged in an “almost ultimative” demand for a German “preventive war” against Russia in 1914. was favourable to improving relations with Germany. there was still a fierce struggle between the left-wing French government and its right-wing opponents.Throughout May and June 1914." Prime Minister and then President Poincaré was a strong hawk. Pašić." . The Chief of the General Staff therefore proposed that I should conduct a policy with the aim of provoking a war in the near future." A "good old war" was seen by both sides (with the exception of Jean Jaurès) as a way to solve this crisis thanks to a nationalistic reflex. though he often talked tough in public. Petersburg. King Peter dismissed Pašić’s government. but the leadership of the Reich lacked such interests. who took office in 1913. and the other by the radical nationalist chief of Military Intelligence. having suffered heavy casualties in the Balkan Wars and in the suppression of a December 1913 Albanian revolt in Kosovo. knew that Serbia was near-bankrupt and. We should never again find conditions better. needed peace. and preferred a policy of war to destroy France. Colonel Dragutin Dimitrijević. The Russian Minister in Belgrade intervened to have Pašić’s government restored.” The new French President Raymond Poincaré. The German Foreign Secretary. Other authors argue that German conservatives were ambivalent about a war. after he had returned from the summit in St. and even a successful war might alienate the population if it were lengthy or difficult. worrying that losing a war would have disastrous consequences. Russia was in the midst of a large scale military build-up and reform which was to be completed in 1916-17. especially the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) made large gains in the 1912 German election. He is reported to have replied: "It would be a great pity. by 1913 French leaders had largely accepted that France by itself could never defeat Germany. In May 1914. It was in the midst of this political crisis that politically powerful members of the Serbian military armed and trained three Bosnian students as assassins and sent them into Austria-Hungary. Today we would still be a match for them. President Poincaré was asked if war could be avoided. Poincaré was born in Lorraine). German government at the time was still dominated by the Prussian Junkers who feared the rise of these left wing parties. on July 29. German domestic politics Left wing parties. including monarchists and "Bonapartists. In 1913 Poincaré predicted war for 1914. In 1920 at the University of Paris. In that month. Fritz Fischer famously argued that they deliberately sought an external war to distract the population and whip up patriotic support for the government. known by his codename Apis. Poincaré was more interested in the idea of French expansion in the Middle East than a war of revenge to regain Alsace-Lorraine. Poincaré remarked "I have not been able to see any reason for my generation living. except the hope of recovering our lost provinces (Alsace-Lorraine. Had the Reich been interested in improved relations with France before August 1914. For example. from the Russian viewpoint it was desirable to keep Pašić in power. Because of France’s smaller economy and population. French domestic politics The situation in France was quite different from that in Germany but yielded the same results. Serbian politics were polarized between two factions. Gottlieb von Jagow. Since Russia also favoured peace in the Balkans. The military superiority of our enemies would then be so great that he did not know how he could overcome them.

Serbian desire to relieve itself of Austrian influence provoked the Pig War. particularly the Anglo-German naval arms race. causing what was seen as a displacement or unbalancing of power: this new and prosperous nation had the industrial and military potential to threaten Europe. Germany’s nationalism. when the annexation received grudging international approval through amendment of the Treaty of . and particularly the already established European powers. French defeat in the war had sparked political instability. its natural resources. culminating in a revolution and the formation of the French Third Republic. giving rise to the desire for revenge. Austrian-Serbian tensions and Bosnian Annexation Crisis On night between June 10/11 1903. However. an economic conflict. from which Serbia eventually came out as the victor. Bismarck was wary of this during his later years and tried to placate the French by encouraging their overseas expansion. Austria-Hungary. known as revanchism. and the displacement of France as the pre-eminent continental military power. A Franco–German colonial entente that was made in 1884 in protest of an Anglo–Portuguese agreement in West Africa proved short-lived after a pro-imperialist government under Jules Ferry in France fell in 1885. This conflict brought the establishment of a powerful and dynamic Germany. The annexation caused widespread resentment in France. a group of Serbian officers assassinated unpopular King Alexander I of Serbia. 1908. The Serbian parliament elected Peter Karađorđević as the new king of Serbia. The annexation set off a wave of protests and diplomatic maneuvers that became known as the Bosnian crisis.Changes in Austria Ethno-linguistic map of Austria–Hungary in 1910 Franco–Prussian War (1870–1871) Many of the direct origins of World War I can be seen in the results and consequences of the FrancoPrussian War. Dynastic change for consequence had rallying Serbian on Russia and France rather than on AustriaHungary as it was case during rule of Obrenović dynasty. desirous of solidifying its position in Bosnia-Herzegovina. its economic strengths and its ambitions sparked colonial and military rivalries with other nations. anti-German sentiment remained. annexed the provinces on October 6. The crisis continued until April 1909. or annexation crisis. A legacy of animosity grew between France and Germany following the German annexation of parts of the formerly French territory of Alsace-Lorraine. French sentiments wanted to avenge military and territorial losses.

it was clear that Germany was not ready to support Austria-Hungary in a war against Serbia and her likely allies. since 1878. Russia. Russia agreed to the annexation. and persuaded Serbia to do the same. that Germany and Italy be notified that there would be some action and asked for support. Montenegro was not as compliant and on May 2. The Balkan Wars (1912–1913) The Balkan Wars in 1912-1913 led to increased international tension between Russia and Austria as well as a strengthening of Serbia and a weakening of Turkey and Bulgaria which might otherwise have kept Serbia in check thus disrupting the balance of power in Europe in favor of Russia. On October 7. Austria-Hungary announced its withdrawal from the Sanjak of Novi Pazar.2 million from Austria-Hungary. Britain lodged a milder protest. Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Izvolsky and Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Alois Aehrenthal met privately at Buchlau Castle in Moravia on September 16. on the other. the Austrian council of ministers met and decided to give Montenegro a last chance to comply and if it would not then to resort to military action. While Izvolsky moved slowly from capital to capital vacationing and seeking international support for opening the Straits. however seeing the Austrian military preparations the Montenegrins requested the ultimatum be delayed and complied. France fell in line behind Britain. However. The Serbian government having failed to get Albania now demanded that the other spoils of the First Balkan War be reapportioned. The next day. after the German Imperial War Council of 8 December 1912. During the crisis. Russia initially agreed to avoid territorial changes. In September 1913. The Balkan Wars strained the German/Austro-Hungarian alliance. which Austria-Hungary occupied and administered since 1878 under a mandate from the Treaty of Berlin. to reflect the annexation. and Russia failed to pressure it to back down. The two jointly agreed not to oppose Bulgarian independence. German opposition to the conference and complex diplomatic maneuvering scuttled the conference. taking the position that annexation was a matter concerning Europe. Serbia and Greece allied against Bulgaria. An international conference was held in London in 1912-1913 where it was agreed to create an independent Albania. and so a conference should be held. on the one hand. Austria-Hungary began releasing secret documents in which Russia. 1908. but later in 1912 supported Serbia's demand for an Albanian port. and then an international naval demonstration in early 1912 and Russia's withdrawal of support Serbia backed down. Bulgaria declared its independence from the Ottoman Empire. joined Serbia in assuming an attitude of protest. After an exchange of letters outlining a possible deal. 1909. which responded with a preemptive strike against their forces beginning the Second Balkan War. however both Serbia and Montenegro refused to comply. At the same time. and Russia and Serbia. acquiesced to the annexation and received ₤2. not a bilateral issue. Bulgaria and Austria-Hungary moved swiftly. it was learned that Serbia was moving into Albania and Russia was doing nothing to restrain it while the Serbian government would not guarantee to respect Albania's territorial integrity and suggested there would be some frontier modifications. unable to obtain Britain's assent to Russia's Straits proposal. On February 20. and that spies . The attitude of the German government to Austrian requests of support against Serbia was initially both divided and inconsistent. On October 5. After an Austrian. Austria-Hungary would withdraw its troops from the Ottoman Sanjak of Novibazar and support Russia in its efforts to amend the Treaty of Berlin to allow Russian war ships to navigate the Straits of Constantinople during times of war. Germany stated it would only continue its active involvement in negotiations if Russia accepted the annexation.Berlin. In return. it was decided by the council of ministers that Serbia be sent a warning followed by an ultimatum. Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Treaty of Berlin then was amended by correspondence between capitals from April 7 to April 19. 1909. At Buchlau the two agreed that Austria-Hungary could annex the Ottoman provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Bulgarian army however crumbled quickly when Turkey and Romania joined the war. Italy proposed that the conference be held in Italy. were permanently damaged. Under these pressures. the Ottoman Empire. had repeatedly stated that Austria-Hungary had a free hand in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Sanjak of Novibazar. In October 1913. relations between Austria-Hungary.

After receiving a telegram of support from Russia. The letter reminded Serbia of its commitment to respect the Great Powers' decision regarding Bosnia-Herzegovina. The letter contained specific demands aimed at preventing the publication of propaganda advocating the violent destruction of Austria-Hungary. Russia's mobilization set-off full Austro-Hungarian and German mobilizations. one of a group of six Bosnian Serb assassins coordinated by Danilo Ilić. it would recall its ambassador from Serbia. The report of this incident was initially sketchy and reported to Emperor FranzJoseph as “a considerable skirmish”. During the period immediately following the end of hostilities. Austria-Hungary then declared war and mobilized the portion of its army that would face the (already mobilized) Serbian Army on 28 July 1914. sent to ascertain if there was an actual withdrawal. However. and there was initially much sympathy for the Austrian position. Serbia complied. were shot dead in Sarajevo. The assassins' motives were consistent with the movement that later became known as Young Bosnia. The next day.e. and the Kaiser made a congratulatory visit to Vienna to try to fix some of the damage done earlier in the year. and Austria-Hungary stated that if Serbia did not accept all of the demands in total within 48 hours. Serbia mobilized its army and responded to the letter by completely accepting point #8 demanding an end to the smuggling of weapons and punishment of the frontier officers who had assisted the assassins and completely accepting point #10 which demanded Serbia report the execution of the required measures as they were completed.. arresting the people on Serbian soil who were involved in the assassination plot and preventing the clandestine shipment of arms and explosives from Serbia to Austria-Hungary. Serbian reservists being transported on tramp steamers on the Danube crossed onto the Austro-Hungarian side of the river at Temes-Kubin and Austro-Hungarian soldiers fired into the air to warn them off. Soon all the Great Powers except Italy had chosen sides and gone to war. and to maintain good neighborly relations with Austria-Hungary. by Gavrilo Princip.” although some historians have argued for shared guilt or pointed to the Entente. Anglo-American historians argued that Germany was solely responsible for the start of the war. Austria-Hungary and Germany advised Serbia that it should open an investigation. and his wife. the tendency has been to reassert the guilt of Germany. academic work in the English-speaking world in the later 1920s and 1930s blamed participants more equally. Within two days of the assassination. Sophie. Austria-Hungary issued a formal letter to the government of Serbia. removing the people behind this propaganda from the Serbian Military. heir apparent to the Austro-Hungarian throne. Since 1960. Austria-Hungary responded by breaking diplomatic relations. Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. This letter is known as the July Ultimatum. Under the Secret Treaty of 1892 Russia and France were obliged to mobilize their armies if any of the Triple Alliance mobilized. Serbian military officers stood behind the attack. Consequences The murder of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire and his wife produced widespread shock across Europe. Duchess of Hohenberg. Serbia responded to the warning with defiance and the Ultimatum was dispatched on October 17 and received the following day demanding that Serbia evacuate Albanian territory within eight days. . “The Berlin War Party. Murder On 28 June 1914. The political objective of the assassination was to break off Austria-Hungary's south-Slav provinces so they could be combined into a Greater Serbia or a Yugoslavia.

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